Category: democracy

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Geo-politics of Electricity

Think of a society only based on electric energy. In the 21st century this energy stems from photovoltaic cells, wind and water turbines as well as geothermal energy sources. Each region of the globe and even within a country has its own kind of access to electric power specifically originating in the geographic and geologic context. This means we are returning to a phase in which “natural monopolies” of power generation have their comeback. Rather than nation wide power monopolies, the regional specificity becomes important again. Of course, this raises a lot of geopolitical issues and maybe tensions. Local economies will develop their own electricity provision. Larger and smaller companies can reorganize their power provision themselves. Energy monopolies become outdated if the infrastructure and legal frameworks are adapted to the potential of the “All electric society” conditional on new forms of “power” sharing. Electric and political power sharing will be key in the geo-politics of electricity.

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Electrifying Jobs

The transition to the “all electric society” necessitates to prepare the labor force for the upcoming challenge. The knowledge about electricity and electric appliances constitutes the basics of the knowledge base of the future. This goes far beyond the basics of physics and electrical engineering. There many processes like sharing of electric infrastructure in households, cities, in and beyond countries that have to be delt with. Investment calculations and legal issues to address the different risks involved are another area to cover in the process to prepare society for the “all electric society”.
However, the skills of professions with more direct links to the fossil fuel based technologies have a role in the phasing out of the heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Reverse engineering of such engines and heating will need people still knowledgeable of the past, when younger generations set their focus primarily on professions with links to electricity. Even using a solar powered heat pump in a home requires pipes to the existing network of radiators, for example. This will most likely be a gradual shift of the job structure and occupational requirements over at least a decade, but the shift has started already. Some might argue we need a well functioning “transitional labour market”, labour market policies and social security system for this to happen smoothly.

 

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AI 2nd round effects

The most popular topic currently is AI.
Most writers, assisted by some form of AI, will deal with the 1st round effects of AI. These consist in the immediate consequence of the use of AI in office work, medical and military applications, music and all producing or creative industries. As an economist you take the input – output matrix of the economy (OECD countries) and take AI as an additional dimension of this I/O matrix, for example. The result is an AI-augmented model of the economy. This 3-dimensional cubic view of the economy asks to reflect on the potential short-term and medium-term impact of AI.
Let’s take the example of translation and editing services. AI will in the short-term or the 1st round effects make it easier to offer mechanical translations with fast turnaround. Most likely, this will lead to less translators needed for routine translations of longer texts, which would otherwise be a very costly endeavour. The 2nd round effects, however, will make the expert knowledge of translators of texts, where every word counts, more necessary in order to provide the best version of a translation targeted on specific audiences.
In the legal domain, for example, the precision of words is primordial and errors can be very costly. Hence, the 2nd round effects of AI in this field will increase the demand for high quality translation services more than before the use of AI. The important shift consists in these 2nd round effects of AI, which give a push to multilingual societies as just one medium-term outcome.
Please use AI to read (listen) to this paragraph in your native language or even dialect using your favourite AI-tool.

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Korean Epilogue

The exhibition on the Korean Provisional Government closed with a stimulating epilogue. The call on visitors to spread the message of peace resembles religious practices. The long struggle for Korean independence and freedom for the people in South Korea leaves them wishing the same for all Korean people and beyond 75 years after the beginnings of the Korean War. From a German and Eastern European perspective this unaccomplished wish resonates a lot. The small stickers with messages from visitors propose short thought pieces like “South and North Korea shall be together” and “Peace starts with inner peace”. The wisdom in these statements lies in not giving up on ideals, however distant they may appear. There is always the possibility of small steps ahead.

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Korean Independence

The independence of a country is sometimes a long struggle. At particular points in time, a window of opportunity may open up, which allows to change the course of history. In many cases the opportunity to gain independence has been prepared for several decades, at least from 1919 onwards to come to fruition only after the end of the Pacific war, shortly after the Nazi-regime was defeated. The long and relentless preparation of the Korean Provisional Government ensured that a consensual constitution was ready to be adopted and elections to be held. The resulting division of Korea into 2 parts (South and North), just like East and West Germany, is rather long lived on historical time scales. For that matter, the hope of a peaceful unification needs to be reiterated again and again. The informative exhibition of the Korean Cultural Center to Belgium and the EU highlights the continued “Dream of Peace” which continues even after more than 100 years.

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Social promise

In the beginning and middle of the 2020s the social promise to younger generations has been broken. The latest figures from the USA reveal that 2 million students (WSJ 2025-6-25 A3) who have financed their studies and potential social mobility by taking out a substantial loan are very likely to default on their credits. This observation was less a surprise to labor market analysts as the stalling of student hiring in many countries has happened for several years now. The more surprising finding is that the Wall Street Journal 2025-6-25 has been reporting on this. Banks or universities who are highly exposed to this kind of risk will themselves become downgraded for their credit rating. Higher interests for universities means higher fees and higher student loans eventually. The social promise to reach higher status and earnings through higher education as the social promise of the meritocratic society becomes an illusion. Investors in student housing might also find the sector less juicy for them. Students and their parents were taken hostage by an excessive commercialization and commodification od education. Lifelong learning is a still a promising route to revitalize the social promise.

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Better infrastructure

It doesn’t need much explanation to advocate better infrastructure. Even if we rarely agree on what constitutes better infrastructure, the lack of infrastructure is felt quickly. Almost everything we use on a daily basis like water, food or transportation rely on large scale infrastructure to facilitate individual uses. Companies settle where they spot good locations, most of them are related to infrastructure as well. The basics about infrastructure is the public versus private provision of such infrastructure and related services. Even a country’s defense hinges on good infrastructure to be able to respond quickly at the place where the defense is most needed. Telecommunication and satellites have been recent innovations in the field of infrastructure. Security and cybersecurity in particular are a critical component of infrastructure. The topic is huge. The means to address these issues are likewise of daunting scale. Therefore, it is all the more important to address these challenges.

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Preventive War

The term “Preventive War” is staging a revival in international politics. The recall of the famous quote “war is the continuation of politics with other means” from Clausewitz encompasses the idea of a pre-emptive strike and entering into war to avoid an enemy to grow too powerful at a later stage. In the age of weapons of mass destruction and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, an intervention to limit the spread of nuclear weapons has taken the form of a preventive war. The international community has been quite unsuccessful to limit the spread of nuclear weapons so far. Research shows that democracies are less likely to go to war than authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.
The preventive war strategy (Levy, 2008), however, is a means for democracies to defend their survival against the spreading and warmongering of authoritarian regimes. However, preventive war, by definition, is a war. The preventive aspects derives from the logic to avoid a much more devastating later war. There is a longitudinal assessment at the base of the calculation to enter now into a preventive war, rather than later into a more difficult defence. In anticipation of the defense, a pre-emptive strike is undertaken. In international politics the lack of a “policing of treaties and international agreements” has initiated the return of the neoclassical concept of national interest as a guiding principle for nation states. A continued threat to the survival of a state, Israel as an example, by the Iranian dictatorship makes the application of a preventive war strategy more likely.
Historically, democracies have applied such military strategies as a continuation of politics and diplomacy with other means. In this sense the 21st century is apparently no different from previous centuries. The revival of “Realpolitik” has been spurred by Putin and his war on Ukraine territory since 2014. How and when to return to the negotiation table is the litmus test of the preventive war strategy.
(Image: Paris, Hotel de la Marine, Le salon diplomatique 2025).

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Paris Gare

Train stations in metropolitan inner cities are hot spots of traffic and mobility. The number of people passing through these exchanges are impressive. Public transport systems are continuously put to the test of their capacity to handle passengers who want to get from A to B the fastest way possible. In Paris the RER lines, metro and buses to a great job in handling the affluence of passengers. The comparatively small number of passengers arriving and departing nyy taxi, however, still take a disproportionate amount of space. That’s part of the differentiation or inequality of mobility in Paris. Person‘s in need of assistance should have special access to central points of mobility like train stations. Everybody else could rely on shared modes of transportation otherwise the millions of inhabitants will not be able to get around in a comfortable way.

 

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Memories updated

In Berlin and many other German cities it is a regular practice to scrutinize the memory inscribed into street names. In order to correct the honors given to persons with a past as fascist or responsible for mass killings street names were changed at several points in the history of the city. Streets named after battle fields, for example, are a continuous point of discussion. It is important to keep the perspectives of victims in mind. Therefore, changing street names is a little contribution to rethink the role of places and persons. Such changes are sometimes very controversial as people become accustomed to names, some might even not care much at all. Recognition and responsibility, however, have a lot of currency in historical perspective. Overpainting like in the paintings from Gerhard Richter has an important function in society and can be one way of coping with the demons of the past.