Tag: war

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Weapons and trade

The 21st century demonstrates again the direct power of weapons and the indirect power of trade. In 2026-10 we experience the use of both as a force in international politics. Big as well as smaller powers push for the weaponization of trade as part of the overall arsenal of weapons. Rare earths, microchips, oil again, all serve to coerce nations into more lenient behavior. Welcome to the era of behavioral strategies in international politics. The revival of game theories and multiple applications in those markets or policy domains seems inevitable. Only the rational part of the behavioral strategies has changed to include higher stakes into the loss function of loosing a (repeated) game. States gamble not only in specific policy domains, but they raise the stakes even to their own survival. Populations of such states become hostage to the ruling elite and have hardly any exit possibilities from disaster. As nutrition and public infrastructures have become targets and weaponized as well. Modern warfare has entered an even more harmful phase on the global level. (blog entry inspired by Victor d. Cha, China’s weaponization of trade, 2026). 

power display of DragonBall characters 2026-11
power display of DragonBall characters 2026-11
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Intergenerational peace

Law and courts serve the function of appeasement beyond the role of delivering judgements. Particularly in the realm of the International Court of Justice the dealing with crimes against humanity and their prosecution is hindered by lack of broad recognition and its force of implementation. Therefore, the international system of jurisdiction has to be explained over and over again to distance the practice of International criminal law and of justice implemented by who has won a war. Philippe Sands was awarded the peace prize of the German book trade association 2026-10. For some time already, he has become a major personality to explain and thereby defend the international criminal law by means of embedding international law into his fact-driven accounts of crimes against humanity. Since the Nuremberg trials to judge Nazi-terror, the task to continue to explain the horrors and atrocities in all emotions merits the broadest attention. The threats to humanity continue also in Europe and the voices of outspoken defenders of intergenerational peace on earth are dearly needed. (Image: extract of The last judgement by Jean Bellegambe 1520 Gemäldegalerie Berlin) 

extract of The last judgement by Jean Bellegambe 1520 Gemäldegalerie Berlin
extract of The last judgement by Jean Bellegambe 1520 Gemäldegalerie Berlin
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Solution problem

We all tend to agree that if there is a problem we shall try to find a solution. Once we seem to have the solution, after a lot of time has elapsed. we no longer sure what the original problem was. It may turn out that the solution shall be in search for a problem it still fits. Listening to the speeches at the UN General Assembly in 2026-9 there are still many problems the UN can address and is the solution or at least part of the solution. However, there are many problems on earth, the institutional setup of the UN no longer fits (The responsibility to protect is one of the discussed problems, Brunnée &Toope 2008).
The UN Security Council with its split into permanent members, with veto powers, and 10 elected other members is an example where a previous solution to the post 2WW international conflicts was a legitimate working solution, but the 21st century’s crises asks for new solutions and arenas for negotiations, which take into account a wider spectrum of countries and topics in a multipolar world. Middle powers shall have to take more active roles within or beyond the current UN institutions. 

Many Kites flying on a beach festival 2026-9

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War of drones

The fiction of a war of drones has been imagined, somehow, 500 years ago by Lucas Cranach. His altarpiece of the last judgment (1525) shows on the upper left corner flying little monsters that threaten humans on earth. The danger came from above and followed predefined judgments. The kind of weapon and threat were not so much different from today, but the portrayal of the person in command has changed. For the thousands of victims due to Putin’s war in Ukraine the modern scenario does not change that much. (Image: Cranach extract 1525 Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

Cranach extract 1525 Gemäldegalerie Berlin

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Totalitarian Totality

In political science we study totalitarian regimes across history in order to better understand how the decline into authoritarian and then totalitarian regimes occurred. But it is not only a matter of historical interest. Authoritarian regimes can get worse, like the Nazi-terror demonstrated and it propagated and applied “total war”. Across the world it is necessary to keep monitoring the war like situations of hybrid war and whether we might have to face again totalitarian regimes entering into all encompassing terror and war. It is the people, no matter from which country, who will suffer the most. The installation by Monia Ben Hamouda in the art gallery ChertLuedde allows us to think beyond or what remains “After totality” (image below from 2026-3-24). Maybe the challenge to make people think beyond the totality is the only way to prevent it from happening or totality being repeated. The experience of the installation is impressive and encourages us to question every attempt of totality especially of totalitarian regimes. 

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Disaster tourism

My personal background gave me lots of personal experience with almost annual next to a small river bed. Since I left the region for studies, the flooding has increased and several times have reached the scale of disasters. Therefore, I am very sensitive and have mixed feeling to the issue of disaster tourism. Such tourism is a nuisance at the time of the disaster, but cash through tourism helps the hard hit region and residents to overcome the losses faster. Would I travel to Tschernobyl or Fukushima for that reason? Probably not, but the intentional war disasters and crimes caused by Nazi-terror.  The Korean novelist Yun Ko-eun did not shun away from writing about a guide who takes tourists to places of environmental disasters until being sent involuntarily to such a site herself. This is not about the “K-Chicken belt”, a series of places with famous chicken dishes, nor about the potential consequences of repeated K-pop events of the famous BTS-boy group in Seoul in 2026. So glad to see that Korean youth has a chance to thrive under democratic rule. (Image: Exhibition in Korean cultural center Brussels 2026-3) 

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Chess without Queen

It is perfectly possible to play chess without a player having a queen on the chessboard. This certainly gives an advantage to the opponent, but in case of a lack of an adequate strategy or being overly confident to win, the advantage can be compensated by the party who does not have a queen in the arsenal of weapons. The paper by Lissner & Warden (2026, p.109) on the new way of war following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022-2-24 states that “nuclear weapons have not given Moscow the coercive leverage many assumed they would.” Nuclear weapons hit the civilian population without differentiation the hardest, just as much as taking nuclear power plants as strategic war targets would do. What we have seen so far in Russia’s strategy is to use civil infrastructures of water and heating as targets within Ukraine as part of a kind of psychological warfare against the Ukrainian civil population. The more committed Ukrainian soldiers, even with the lack of a nuclear weapon, seem to hold the line against the Russian aggressor that so far has restrained from the nuclear option, if the Tschernobyl disaster has not been a precursor of a weaponisation of nuclear infrastructure.

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Multilateral world

In the relatively brave new world of 21st century, it is not only a question of how the super powers like the USA, China and Russia shall push their strategic goals, but also what role so-called „Middle Powers“ will play. Europe and the European Union will have to make up their minds, whether they want to belong to one or the group, individually or jointly. New as well as shifting alliances seem to be a realistic scenario. Coalitions of middle powers will be effective counterparts to the threat of domination by a single or joint brutal force of superpowers. The power of interference of middle powers in the confrontation of superpowers is considerably higher if they were to collaborate more effectively than with each of the superpowers previously in a simple 2 opponents game of chess, much more familiar to us so far. (Image: Game of chess with 4, 5 or 6 players on the same board, here adapted from chessboard for 4 players, source: greenchess.net webpage)

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Communist Utopia

Putin has not only killed thousands of his own people, but he he has also killed the communists’ utopia of a better world and future, if only private property would be replaced by a top down, one party rule of a leadership that pretends to act on behalf of the people. Young Russians have little choice than to follow orders, learn how to bribe superiors not to be sent to the killing fields or be sanctioned. Putin has put an end to the ideas of Glasnost and Perestroika in Russia and utopian ideas about communism as well. He must have sensed it during his time in Eastern Germany that without brutality the Soviet union will not survive for long. As soon as he came back to Russia he prepared the shameless abuse of his power and ideas about a law-based socialist system in favor of the return of the military state. Borders are for those who believe in a rule-based international legal system. Changed to this international legal framework are hard to believe by European nations, but have to be accepted as a new form of “Realpolitik” in the international arena. (Image: Graffiti in Brussels Mont des Arts 2022-3-1) 

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Make Russia pay

The initiative from the European Parliament to make Russia pay for its destruction in Ukraine could use about 200 billion Euro of frozen assets from Russia. Until a peace agreement is reached that sum could serve as a guarantee for infrastructure rebuilding in Ukraine already during the war by Russia on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure, like energy supply, airports and railways. It is an accomplishment of transparency to be able to trace the Russian assets. The largest amount is stored in Belgian banks according to the material distributed by the European Parliament. All these funds make up for a substantial effort that otherwise tax payers of other European countries will have to spend. The cooperation in the EU and beyond is at yet another test. Belgium plays a rather strange role in this respect as it benefits the most from many European Institutions and lobby groups being based there.