Most economists would hold that in free market economics there is no room for moral statements. Betrayal, therefore, is left out of most standard text book economics courses. However, more advanced courses that include strategies based on so-called “game theory”, where actors may breach prior commitments, betrayal has entered economic science. A “tit-for-tat” strategy is frequently the best “game-theoretic” solution to such strategic behavior to deter also repetition of defecting on agreed rules or bargaining outcomes. For real world applications beyond the simple strategic advice, the maths involved are quite challenging. We’ll check soon, how AI is changing that game.
Another popular economic theory is one of “gift exchange”. You gift a sum of money (or weapons for self-defense to a country) with no explicit consent that the money should be repaid (through rare earths) in peace time. A betrayal occurs, if a country suddenly asks things in return for the previous gifts. For politicians that understand themselves as “market marker” and “deal maker”, there will be a tendency to claim back a gift in order to come to some kind of gift exchange rather than an altruistic donation.
William A. Galston wrote in the WSJ (2025-2-26) naming the US political action of the 2nd Trump administration a “betrayal of Ukraine and American values”.
If free markets mean making ruthless use of “tit for no possible tat” and “gifts are always a gift exchange”, we move back to mercantile and medieval practices, where settles could claim land at gun point.
What way out of this? Adam Smith, champion of classical economics, wrote before his famous book on “The Wealth of Nations” a lesser known, precursor book on “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”. Actually, he was convinced that the one would not work without the other.
Maybe, going back to classical economics is much better than a Trump administration version of neo-classical economics in a new era of political economy 3.0. 
Insecurity Council
The UN Security Council has been turned into the Insecurity Council. The UN Plenary Session voted with a 2/3 majority on 2025-2-24 the draft Resolution L.10 stating: “Three years after the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the General Assembly today adopted two resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity …”. As part of this resolution the UN General Assembly claims “accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine …”.
The UN Insecurity Council (15 Members, China, USA Russia, F, UK as permanent Members) adopted almost in parallel with 10 votes in favor and 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom) resolution 2774 (2025) calling for a swift end to conflict. The most notable change in international politics is the changed voting behavior of the USA, which has retreated from an outspoken condemnation of Russia as aggressor and occupant of foreign territory.
The “revealing of masks” in what appears to be a neo-imperialist period of time has come. The set-up of the post 1945 UN institution of the Security Council has lost a major function to prevent armed conflicts and early reaction potential. The force to aim for and guarantee international peace lies much more in the hand of the plenary of the UN rather than the small select Security Council dominated by previous superpowers largely due to their possession of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
The voting of a resolution by the Insecurity Council, which is in contradiction with a resolution of the UN General Assembly concerning the spirit, if not the words, is a source of insecurity itself. A reform of the UN system, which risks to become a “shopping system” of lenient organizations, where you join and leave the organization (UNESCO, WHO, WTO …) will loose impact.
For many people and countries, the only hope for a guarantee of human rights lies with the United Nations Human Rights Charter, peace keeping missions and International Courts. The UN Security Council as an Insecurity Council is likely to let down many people truly seeking a peaceful life.
(Image: The Fall of Icarus, Pablo Picasso, at HQ UNESCO, Paris)
Ukraine Chanson
The Russian war in Ukraine is not limited to the military killings. From the earliest period in 2014 already Russia initiated a war on Ukraine culture and Ukrainian cultural heritage. Therefore, it is great to witness the efforts by Ukrainian musicians not only to retrieve their rich heritage for example in the field of chansons, but to develop traditional songs with new formats. Jazzy versions of children’s songs have been sung with an admirable soft voice by singer and composer Viktoria Leléka and her band.
Most people might think of children’s songs as an insignificant niche of music. The importance of singing songs for children and babies is a scientifically well documented finding. Early bonds are created and a sense of belonging and comfort, particularly during difficult times of life. Comforting music is also an intergenerational issue. Transmission of emotions and values across generations is the very fabric of societies. The recent album “Kolysanky” and the song “Ne Zhal” is a great reminder that it is the children that count not the, maybe, broken cradle.
During the war time with many absent fathers, chansons can bridge the emotional hardships. The movie “The Chorist” had demonstrated the power of children songs for children, their parents and all generations involved. Chansons have a much longer “half-time of life” than war.
From an unknown French composer the cradle song “Fais dodo Colin …” and Brahm’s Wiegenlied are classics many people in Europe will remember from their childhood and still transmit them today. Great news that Ukraine continues this tradition with new, innovative adaptations of their own lively cultural heritage.
(Image: extract of lyrics Ne Zhal’, from webpage) 
Ukraine Poets
Difficult times have a long history in Ukraine. However, literature and poetry have flourished since the Ukrainian independence from the Soviet domination in 1991. Periods of hunger under Stalin, Nazi crimes in the 2nd World War, Tschernobyl radiation, Annexation of Crimea and now Russian war on Ukrainian territories, the endurance of hardship is part of Ukrainian culture and society. This has created a strength of resistance and resilience which is exemplary for all countries. The democratic countries stand firmly on Ukraine‘s side and support not only military defense efforts, but also artists and poets in such difficult times.
A collection of translated poems from Ukrainian into English has been published in 2027/2018, showing the horrors of the large scale war that was to come a few years later. In fact from the Ukrainian perspective the annexation of Crimea was the first war initiated by Russia although the Western world did not want to see this as a brutal aggression, which it was. The poems in the anthology are available online for everyone to read and understand that war changes personalities. Suddenly, dying of old age becomes a blessing as many young soldiers and people die on the battlefields (Died of Old Age, by Lyuba Yakimchuk translation by Anatoly Kudryavitsky) .
7 years after the translations where published the poems have kept their sorrow and the reminder for us to continue our support for Ukraine‘s fight for democracy, independence and freedom of speech and the arts. (Image: Front: from War Diaries, Brussels 2025, shown in Gallery of Katarzyna Napiorkowska).
More Battles
In 2025 we continue with the same battles as in the previous year. However, the way armies fight military battles has evolved. New types of weapons like drones have entered the stage. These precision weapons (Horowitz, 2024) have the advantage to be not only less costly than other heavy mass and costly artillery, they can also be guided in swarms to their targets. A further advantage is the steering of drones needs differently qualified persons rather than advancing with heavy armored vehicles on battlefields. Upskilling of defense forces is an important side effect. Jamming technology of radio frequencies was applied before, nowadays this has turned into a crucial defense strategy to intercept and derail drones and rockets off their intended targets.
Other than heavy weight arms, even laser beams enter the arsenal of weapons, if targets are sufficiently static in nature. These high-energy beams are still more in the research and testing realm rather than used on the battle field, but it becomes clear that research capacities play and played an important role throughout military history. The next generation of robots, not only in production processes, but more those walking on the battlefields is likely to change wars to less manned interventions. The technological innovations shall further move the spiral of new generations of weapons forward. Fewer soldiers, but more robots in the air, at sea and on the ground might increase the risks of “restrained”, less costly, but longer duration conflicts across the globe.
I always thought of robots as rescue robots to save lives. The flip side of the coin, however, is destruction before rescue as well. Technology can be put to both purposes. It is us who decide, which one takes the upper hand. 
EU Georgia
It is a moving image to see a hundred demonstrators at „Unter den Linden“ in Berlin just next to the Russian Embassy. The Georgian flag and Georgian people actively seek the association with the European Union and the values it stands for. Irrespective of a large majority of the people of Georgia‘s wish to become part of the EU they have to fight hard to be heard. Next to the Ukranian protests in Berlin it becomes very evident that these two nations fight for living standards and values which are so „self-evident“ for us European citizens that it is all to easy to forget about our neighbors who have to endure hardships with uncertain outcomes. The experience of having lived together under one roof with people from other countries allows to realize that we have so much more in common than what separates us. Our house and home of the EU has much to offer, more than we tend to believe in our daily routine. 
Commemoration
In The month of November we commemorate those who died and particularly all those who died in the combat for freedom and democracy. The Russian aggression does not show many signs of ending the killing of soldiers and civilians on both sides. Ukrainian forces struggle to resist the Russian occupation of its territory as Russia is sacrificing thousands of lives for small gains of territory it is unlikely to defend in the coming months if Ukraine possesses longer reach weapons. A new spiral of an apocalypse is most probably the result of the Russian insistence on external aggression to cover up more internal problems. A lost generation of young soldiers who died in combat or suffered mutilation will be the outcome of these atrocities. The inflationary effects of wheat and energy prices globally have caused additional casualties in countries that had absolutely no stakes in this war. Russia is to blame for those additional casualties as well as the adverse effects on the world‘s climate due to the fighting and destroyed materials that need replacing later on. The young Russian generation will have to stand up against Putin‘s call to war and put down their weapons. This is one way to end the spiral toward yet another apocalyptic experience in Europe and the silent killing through hunger beyond Europe. (Image: BNF Paris, Apocalypses 2024)
Comprehensive Conflict
In a recent paper Mara Karlin (2024 Foreign Affairs LINK) has stated the need for the Western World to understand and even prepare for comprehensive conflict. Particularly in response to Putin‘s war on Ukraine’s territory and the threats and potential use of the full range of weapons including cyber warfare, destruction of energy resources and military production sites the current war comes close to total war. Several European countries have made significant steps to increase budgets for the new forms of comprehensive conflict management. This starts with adequate discussion in public on the dramatically changed security situation after the „Zeitenwende“ caused by Putin. The forceful Ukrainian response with much financial assistance from the West has pioneered drone counter strikes and by this put an end to the Russian progression into its territory. In order to match the total war ideology Putin is implementing in Russian society the Western world will have to rethink production models and strategic defense capabilities in all areas to match the rather real threats by Russia. The prevention of the spreading of comprehensive conflict is of utmost importance since the risk of an expansion of Russian influence and suppression of any internal resistance in Russia has devastating consequences. The 2024 book by Tatjana Tönsmeyer „Under German Occupation, Europe 1939-1945“ (own translation of German title) demonstrates what it meant to live under the domination of an inhuman dictatorship which is ready to use all out war and violence at any occasion. We have to confront this, even if we don’t want to face it. Nevertheless, the Russian aggression is also strongly targeted on its own people not to take risks of separation from Russia as this would mean devastating destruction to those regions and people who dare to do so. External explosions are therefore for Putin a prevention of implosion of the Russian Federation similar to the Soviet Union previously. Comprehensive Conflict extinguishes any remaining internal opposition as intended collateral damage. In Western countries, however, we shall have to argue with opponents and build majorities through understanding the issues at stake not through silencing opponents and opposition. The debate about comprehensive conflict is only about to start, but it is likely to last for several election cycles. (own image, Contemplation on infinite landscapes, Berlin 2024)
Scorched earth
The Russian military strategy in Ukraine is yet another example of scorched earth. Upon retreat the space is left in a devastated state. Worst of all are the land mines that kill or mutilate even after the immediate danger has passed. The logic in the Russian aggression in Ukraine is particularly strange as the Russians were arguing this is their land and claim the people living there were mostly Russians. The retreat of Russian troops eventually will leave huge territories scorched. The destruction of energy infrastructure is also clearly targeting the population at large to make entire regions difficult to live or survive in during the approaching cold winter months. Decentralized energy provision rather than huge power plants have become a survival strategy for Ukraine and probably its neighboring countries. Sensitivity to the dangers of scorched earth is important to get priorities right for relief.
Artists sometimes show us the way ahead with bright colors, if only we were able to see or understand the signs or signals. (Image extract from Mark Bradford “Scorched Earth”, SMB Berlin, National Gallerie der Gegenwart im Hamburger Bahnhof, 2024-9)
Ukraine Chess
Strategies in Chess, sometimes, inform strategic behavior in wars. In chess there are clear definitions of 2 opponents and their material. Modern warfare has blurred both elements. Opposing parties build alliances and the material allowed or available is hotly debated as well. The war of Russia on Ukraine territory, nevertheless, resembles a variant of a chess game considering the different stages of the game. All starts with Russia choosing its opening attacks. A rather aggressive version of the opening is the King’s Gambit in which a fast attack tries to overwhelm the opponent. Ukraine, because of the surprise and lack of immediate support from neighboring countries, chose a careful defense trying to hold the lines amid a fast forward moving assault. A further restriction for Ukraine was to not use weapons from supporters on Russian territory. In chess this would mean your defense is not allowed to cross the middle line of the chessboard. For example the so-called Sicilian defense does exactly this for many moves of the opening. However, in the middle game this changes and the defense might prepare forceful attacks based on a solid defense. With 2 and 1/2 years into the war the opening has played out and we see middle game strategies take the upper hand. In chess this consist in attempts to gain material advantage, possession of strategically important positions and psychological stamina to mention a few. The middle game can drag out for a long time, especially if a balance of power persists. Even in an unbalanced situation peacemaking takes time as well. In any case, during the opening phase the “Sicilian” defense can handle a defense that is restricted to “own half” of the chessboard, but in the middle phase such a restriction is an even more severe impediment. Relaxing this imposed restriction by supporters opens up additional possibilities for the defense as well as counter strikes. (Image: Shredder Chess App White opens with Kings Gambit and Black answers with Sicilian defense)
International Geometry
Geometric forms sometimes serve to make international affairs more transparent or descriptive. The Weimar triangle is such a formula, which helps to show the links between states. In the journal “Le Monde” of 2024-9-13 an interview with Radoslaw Sikorski reflects the shifting side lengths and military weights within this triangle. The Polish Minister of foreign affairs points at the threats from Russia to violate the air space of Poland and the legitimacy of Poland and the Ukraine, of course, to defend its air space and territorial sovereignty. The guarantee of international law, however, is heavily dependent upon adequate international geometry beyond the Weimar triangle. The meeting with a representative of the Pentagon (US) enlarges the scope of the triangle.
Talking about the reach of missiles in defense is yet another exercise in geometry as this depends on starting and supposed, or reachable, end points. The use of GPS-signals in civilian and military applications is another example of how geometry is ruling our modern lives. Let’s embrace it, rather than shun away from the geometry behind it. (Image Exhibition room at Wiels Art Centre, Brussels 2023).
Schooling Ukraine
It is hard to imagine what it will mean to go to school, if your father has to defend your country, Ukraine, and freedom of education instead of Russian indoctrination. This is tough for all children in countries that have to defend themselves today or in the past. For Ukrainian children and families who had to flee their country this means that they have to go through another education system, not out of choice, but instead of their normal way through their education system. This means a lot of additional challenges for them. In Germany alone the educational authorities have counted more than 200.000 children in schools at the beginning of 2024. Additional efforts are undertaken to allow mothers as well to learn a foreign language to facilitate communication with the receiving countries. We have to make huge efforts that these children are not a scared generation of pupils but rather a strengthened generation of young persons with solid learning experiences in another country. Some will stay in the receiving countries, many will return and rebuild their homes and communities. Our support and assistance needs to be a long term commitment beyond the end of the war after an eventual Russian retreat from Ukraine territory. Solidarity is not a fixed-term commitment. We shall be put to the test and should not hesitate about our continued support.
Superstates reloaded
We live in an age of superstates. Such is the conclusion of Alasdair Roberts (2023). China(1.4), India (1.2), USA (0.33) and the EU (0.45) in billions of people jointly host about 40% of the world’s population (UN data). The Russian Federation with a population of 0.15, Japan 0.13 rank further behind, for example Pakistan 0.24 and Indonesia 0.27. Nothern, Eastern and Western Africa (0.25;0.46;0.42 respectively) have a huge unfulfilled potential that does not reach the impact it deserves.
These big and populated entities contrast with the increasing number of small states that have become new members of the United Nations. The institution of the United Nations, through its setup as an international rule based governance structure, has facilitated small states to seek voice and influence in the international arena of politics. The UN had 51 members in 1945 and has now a membership of 193 of all listed states of 237 on the globe. The increase in membership is due to many small states joining the UN after independence from big imperial powers. The international power relations, however, are only partially determined by population size but economic and military factors. The so-called superstates reach power through their power of direct and indirect “persuasion. Therefore the relationship between small and big states remains a delicate balance of power. Russia attempted to grab Ukraine and its population of 410 millions to remain in the league of superstates by population size and has suffered a hefty setback which further unsettles the disequilibrium of its male (68) and female (78) population with predominantly male soldiers’ lives lost.
Whereas we have seen the small states’ numbers on the rise in the last few decades, the expansion of superstates from Russia, China, India or Pakistan remain a threat to peace on the globe. The crystallization of a multi polar world order is on its way, but the stakes are high and unsettling in many respects. The fallout of war stalls the adaptation to climate change and increases the millions of starving people on the globe. the attempt to reach superstate status by already big states is probably the greatest danger we shall face for the coming years. Preparing for the instability of the world in transition to an increasing multi polar world order will dominate the political agenda of many intermediate powers as well as smaller states. (Image Globe Moscow 1994, displayed Stabi Berlin 2024)
Opera Politics
We know that sports and international politics have ample links. This holds true for Opera performances, either due to the way they are presented or due to the content of the libretto. The opera Jeanne d’Arc (Giovanna de Arco, Jungfrau von Orléans) by Guiseppe Verdi was composed in 1844 and had its Premiere at La Scala in Milano 1845. The libretto is based on the drama written by the playwriter Friedrich Schiller. Later in the 19th century musical pieces followed that dealt with the court judging Jeanne d’Arc. The opera by Verdi creates a strong female voice and character which outperforms men around her. Obviously, she was and remains for many a quasi-mythological heroine. In short, this constitutes great plots for drama and operas. This is centuries old despite the rare occasions of more recent performances of Jeanne d’Arc in form of Verdi’s opera or other forms.
The Opera as arena of politics is currently tested in the Opera at Tallinn Estonia. Due to the aggression and occupation of Ukranian territory by Russia the plot of Jeanne d’Arc regained another European location of potential application. Ukraine pushed back the Russian invasion and struggles to win back its territory from the invaders. The performance of the Opera recreates an impressive Jeanne d’Arc in the person of Elena Brazhnyk who was trained at the National Tchaikovsky Music Academy of Ukraine. The evening inspired hope in many respects. Talents from Ukraine or trained in Ukraine reach out into to the world. Similarly, we have much reason to be inspired by courageous acts. Operas do politics. “Bravi”, as they say in Italian.
(Image: Opera Tallinn-Estonia2024-4-18)
Russian Angst
The title of a book “Russian Angst” by Thomas Franke summarizes the state of Russian society under Putin. It dates back to 2017, but the underlying process of Angst in the Russian society is increasing rather than diminishing due to the already 2 years long intensive hot war of Russia against Ukraine. The Russian Angst is a fear of a continued roll back of its authoritarian rule in Eastern parts of the world and its internal threat that its own people will claim more rights like freedom of speech, freedom of the press and effective democratic voting rights. In a dictatorship the “Angst” is a pervasive phenomenon which creeps into all spheres of live. Franke and Dornblüth (2023) describe the toxic society in Russia. Intoxication and torture of opponents are used by the Putin regime as a threat to suppress critical voices in Russia. Through this a climate of “Angst” is spread so that any internal opposition has to face very high risks to utter any discontent. The experience of a barbarian, totalitarian regime is well known. The threat to life and the presence of intimidation to any disobedient behaviour are strictly persecuted. Nevertheless, the need to think beyond the Putin regime is well under way. The more external and internal, real or imagined threats are countered with brutal force, the more the regime reveals its true kind of governance by force. This invites and leads to the strengthening of counter forces both internally and externally. It seems like box fight in the before last round of a very vulnerable, weakened and isolated boxer. Not many will bet on the likely loser and more countries who previously supported Putin will stop their erroneous policy. Russian Angst and loneliness will further increase. 
West Europe
There has been a shift of political borders in Eastern Europe. Russia has been trying to shift its border further to the West by brutal force attacking Ukraine. Political defence and military action have managed to preserve western values in Ukraine. On the 13th of February 2024 the meteorological data confirm a clear belonging of Ukraine to the western climatic conditions. Temperatures in Kiev are very similar to the western hemisphere and very different from the cold in Moscow. This is just a little detail or coincidence but it bears a nice resemblance to the political weather currently in Europe. It is by all means much colder in Moscow than in western Europe. The time and the climate are a changing.
Continuity in 2024
The Russian aggression continues on Ukrainian territory also in 2024. Based on false allegations and stories about a supposed Russian heritage based on Ukraine territory the ongoing war is once again fought more about the past than the present. The future is entirely disregarded by Russia as if it is clear to them that they do not have a future of the dictatorial regime. If a country does no longer care about future perspectives or future generations even, this country is likely to become very dangerous for neighboring countries and beyond because of the high discounting which implicitly applies to all its investments. Western companies who moved out of Russia had immediately high losses. At the same time Russia continues on a daily basis to destroy lives and property. We just shall not stop to support the fight for freedom and democracy in Ukraine as long as it takes. It fighting for our future rather than demons of the past.
Berlin Moscow
Some historians have a hard time to sort long-term relationships between countries into adequate periods. The ups and downs between Berlin and Moscow are a peculiar example of this. The artist Peter Laszlo Péri expressed this unease in a poster where both cities stand for the dictatorships presumably in the name of the working class. This alliance between Berlin and Moscow, Hitler and Stalin led to occupations of several neighboring countries and war in the following years. With an uncritical stance after German unification the Berlin Moscow link has again facilitated the land grab of Russia with Ukrainian territory. Buying complacency of Berlin in return for cheap oil and gas from Moscow has ended for most European countries now. Great to see Europe united with few minor exceptions and that alliances with other European cities reveal strong and powerful in hope of a more peaceful Europe. 
Ukraine Art
The touring exhibition of art works from Ukraine 1900-1930s is on show in Brussels at the Royal Museums of fine art Brussels in November December 2023. Before Ukraine became swallowed up in the Sowjetunion there was a very active independent artist world that had close links to all capitals in Western Europe. All art disciplines were covered. The paintings of Vadym Meller from 1919 (Aquarell on carton) show designs for a dance performance to the music of Chopin. The modern designs and vivid colors reflect the conscious reference to art movements across Europe. The inspiration from dance to painting is a recurrent theme in impressionistic paintings, abstract paintings and into our own time period. Ukrainian art from early on in the 20th century had a broad scope beyond the narrow focus on art controlled by the soviets. Well worth enlarging our vision to take into account these creative masterpieces from Eastern Europe as independent voices.
Youth Reserve
As the Russian aggression in Ukraine continues its war in Ukraine, it is important to analyse the impact of the prolonged war. Certainly, Russia underestimated the length of the war in the first place. We shall be soon in the 20th months of the aggression. It is not only an aggression on Ukraine territory and Ukrainians, but also a disaster for all those fighting on Russia’s side. Many young recruits to the army did not expect to be drawn up and be compelled to fight on front lines of a war. Most of these young people will not even really why they are risking their life. Russian imperialistic behaviour is not what they imagined to be their future role.
Putin has changed the story book of millions of youth, for those of the soldiers and those who left the country in time to evade been pulled into the horrors of war. With so many months passing while at war, each birth cohort of Russians completing their schooling and serving in the military will face existential threats to their very survival. It is likely to be a lost generation that cannot think of other opportunities rather than passing through the hierarchies of the military ranks. It was not their war at the beginning, but Putin and the old military commanders who are responsible for the mess, but youth pays the highest price in terms of foregone other professional careers and development rather than death or mutilation.
The defence by Ukrainians with better equipment arriving day by day is likely to increase the losses of the Russians, where many still do not know why they are sent to fight. The price for Russia to pay for the aggression is rising every day Ukraine manages to defend itself. Other countries in the neighbourhood of Russia were very surprised of the ruthless imperialist approach by Russia. They stepped up their defences considerably to guard against another extension of the conflict. The toll is on youth even beyond Russia and Ukraine. 
Ukraine@Book Fair
It is great to see so many publishers and authors at the Frankfurt book fair 2023. Because of the massive Russian misinformation not restricted to Russia, but in Western countries, too. Awarding a prize to those activists that sort truth from fake news is very important in this respect. 200 square meters of exhibition space reflects the size and quality of publishing. Lots of translations are underway as well. freedom of publishing and the press is something we usually take for granted until it is gone.
Städtepartnerschaften
In einigen Städten gibt es ganze Listen mit Städtepartnerschaften. Diese werden mit sehr unterschiedlicher Leidenschaft gepflegt. Berlin-Kiew ist eine Partnerschaft, die erst seit 2022 wieder richtig wichtig geworden ist. Solidarität mit den Menschen, Schicksale teilen und Unterstützung gewähren, wenn es nötig ist,.Das alles lässt sich einfacher bewerkstelligen bei etablierten Kontakten. Verantwortung für Vergangenheit und zwischenmenschliche Beziehungen überwinden viele Barrieren. Die deutsch-französischen Partnerschaften bilden ein weitgespanntes Netz, das viel zur Verständigung der Menschen beigetragen hat. Deutsch-polnische Partnerschaften ergänzen seit einigen Jahren die gegenseitigen Besuche und Kontakte, die die so wichtige Aussöhnung zwischen den Völkern befördert, gerade in Zeiten von konfliktbeladener Regierungspolitik.
Es reicht nicht, wenn Schulklassen einmal von West nach Ost oder umgekehrt fahren. Zum beiderseitigen Verständnis braucht es mehr Anstrengungen. „Spiele ohne Grenzen“, die populäre Art mit Spaß bei der Sache einen Wettstreit inszenieren, das hat in den 70er Jahren gut funktioniert. Feste feiern mit interregionalem Austausch ist ebenfalls eine interessante Alternative. Straßennamen Plätze mit dem Namen der Partnerschaft helfen wenig für wirkliche Verständigung. Okay, die Nazis hatten die Städtepartnerschaften zu übler Propaganda missbraucht, zur Indoktrination und Machtdemonstration in anfangs noch widerspenstigen Regionen. Gerade deswegen müssen wir andere Modelle der Verständigung anregen, die das Menschliche in den Vordergrund stellen. Lange Zugfahrten können Anregungen bringen, aber wer kann schon so viel Anregung noch vertragen. 
Instability
In political science the stability- instability paradox is much discussed (paper with game-theoretic analyses). The reliance on nuclear weapons, supposed to enhance stability in the world order, is rather driving the instability making conventional wars even more likely. Michael Beckley argues that containment of China’s expansionary policies is needed to avoid even more disastrous confrontations (Foreign Affairs, 2023 Nr.5).
Different from the German cold war doctrine “Wandel durch Annäherung” Beckley argues that commerce has not brought US and China closer together, but it is actually driving them further apart. After decades of trade imbalances with China the economic power of China can be felt as overwhelming. But there are multiple risks to its economic model and strategic interests to secure raw materials from across the world. Aging of China is another economic and social fallacy difficult to overcome with short-term measures.
We are about to witness another couple, triangular or more relationship to establish as “enduring rivals”. This may last for centuries rather than decades, although the French- German couple has managed quite successfully to turn such rivalry into an “entente” relationship of importance to the whole European continent. The shift in emphasis of US foreign policy is going to be significant. Containment with Russia has worked, so why should it not work with China as well. The likely answer is demographics again. The size of the internal market of China is sufficiently large to continue a splendid isolation after heavy one-sides trading is over. State control of the internet and social scoring of the population is also a powerful tool to suppress the formation of free will and independent opinions. After all, instability in external relations might even be used to ensure internal stability. Such strategies are common to all political systems. The stability- instability paradox is staying with us and this is rather stable even if the discussion changes continents. (Image: Comical battlefield Map 1854, by Berendsohn shown at Waterloo, Museum 2018) 
2023-8-24
Das Datum ist mit dem Gedenktag der Unabhängigkeitserklärung der Ukraine verbunden. Gerade die Aggressionen Russlands wollen diese Unabhängigkeit zurückdrehen. Das wird nur mit viel Kraft und Ausdauer gelingen können. 18 Monate im Krieg mit Russland war uns unvorstellbar. Wir werden unablässig unterstützen müssen, damit die Freiheit und Unabhängigkeit aller Teile der Ukraine wieder hergestellt werden kann.
Das Datum sorgt für zusätzliches Gedenken. Jetzt beginnt die Einleitung von durch Atomkraftwerke verunreinigtes Wasser in Fukushima. Das, was nie passieren sollte, hat sich doch als Tatsache bewiesen. Verunreinigtes Kühlwasser wird auf die Welt verteilt durch Einleitung in den Ozean. Private oder nationale Profite werden eingestrichen, aber die Kosten eines GAU (größter anzunehmender Unfall) werden auf die Weltgemeinschaft verteilt.
Ein Tag zuvor hat Indien, anders als Russland, seine Raumkapsel auf dem Mond ohne Bruchlandung aufgesetzt. Großmachtstatus verlangt auch überdurchschnittliches wissenschaftliches Engagement. Das lässt sich mit einer Mondmission sicherlich demonstrieren. Neue Demonstrationen von Unabhängigkeit durch große oder wirtschaftlich erstarkte Staaten werden eine multipolare Weltordnung befördern. Das passiert nicht von heute auf morgen. Es könnten sich vielfältigere Verhandlungsmöglichkeiten auf internationaler Ebene eröffnen. Noch mehr Geduld in der Diplomatie wird nötig sein. Gleichzeitig ergeben sich aber auch größere wirtschaftliche Druckmittel auf Staaten, die internationales Recht verletzen.
Nuclear War
In the last few years we have witnessed a new surge in the investment in nuclear energy on the global level (IEA). Ever since the foundation of the initiative “International physicians for the prevention of nuclear war” in the 1980s, there have been relentless reminders of the devastating effects of such a war. In 2023 we are all aware of the real risk of attacks on the biggest nuclear power plant located in Ukraine. Nevertheless we continue to invest heavily in power plants that constitute a massive risk at times of war between irresponsible nations. Besides the publication of many high quality papers in The Lancet there is regularly space to keep the awareness of the dangers of nuclear war at a high level. Too many politicians shield themselves from dealing with such realistic dangers in the interest of supposed cheap and save energy for all. Both is no longer the case. Nuclear energy is expensive and unsafe in peace and horrible in war times. We cannot afford to abstract from these rising risks. The hype about anything nuclear like in the 1980s is grossly displaced (image of book below).
Hunger
The UN strategic development goals (SDGs) list after the eradication of hunger as number 2 no hunger by the year 2030. Following the report of FAO, the UN 🇺🇳 organization in charge of nutrition in a larger sense, the world is moving further away from reaching this goal in the 4 last years. The Covid-19 pandemic had disrupted supply chains and caused higher prices for basic ingredients. The poorest countries were most vulnerable to such price increases when even in the rich world government deficits were rising sharply. Before sufficient relief arrived Russia’s war in Ukraine destroyed crops, interrupted again supply chains from Ukraine to many of the poorest nations. Energy prices are a substantial part in the production of fertilizers for agricultural products. Same story Russia disrupted the whole supply chains for food production at affordable prices for the poorest parts of the world. Additionally, Indian food production was lower due to the drought, Pakistan had extreme flooding. Both countries are important export nations for feeding the world. Continuing climate change is likely to put global food production under additional pressure. Price rises will hit the poorest again and again. Feeding animals with crops that could otherwise alleviate hunger in other parts of the world puts the rich world’s consumption patterns also into the spotlight. Fighting global hunger is largely a question of how wealthy nations deal with nutrition. The struggle to fight obesity and hunger under the joint concern of malnutrition unites all parts of the world. Time to act together on both topics.
Peace Deal
In peace times we tend to forget about the deal making function of diplomacy. The Russian war in Ukraine brings back the fact that war times are a strategic operation from before the start, from start to end, and even afterwards. More than 500 days into the Russian aggression a lot of strategic efforts on all sides are concerned with the best strategies to pursue in order to prepare for starting positions for diplomatic peace talks. As Russia is currently pursuing again 4 nights and days of missile attacks on Kiev around the 14th of July (AFP), Ukraine is showing its continued resilience to Russian bombings assisted through modern missile defence systems.
Russia seems to demonstrate its willingness to continue assaults far into the terrain of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces, step by step, increase the immense costs of a prolonged war to Russia. Russia is sacrificing a whole generation of youth for the neo-imperialist claim on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine currently demonstrates the ability and willingness to fight back its territory even in a protracted war.
Both sides battle for starting positions in case negotiations for the time after the hot war are about to begin. Russian bombing of Kiev might address more the western allies of Ukraine who might be more reluctant to send personnel to start rebuilding the country beyond financial efforts. Russia’s loss of soldiers, lots of material and facing the militarisation of the whole country incurs another historic loss for completely the wrong reasons.
Another analogy to the strategic game of chess becomes obvious. Many games end with a “remis” or a 1/2 point for each side. In chess it is an outcome of when 2 strategists weigh the chances of loosing as high as winning even if they continue for hours to play. It is the endpoint of an evaluation of own strategic options as well as those of the opponent. The handshake to conclude a remis needs careful preparation. Part of this is to demonstrate the ability to be able to sustain a prolonged battle despite the costs as a kind of threat to the opponent. We might believe that not much has changed since Thucydides and Clausewitz. However, Putin’s forceful opening of the war irrespective of loss of lives and against international law has lost its impetus and, with the turning of the tide. Ukraine is slowly winning back land, square mile after square mile. Strategic thinking is back in the foreground, but this is exactly the moment when diplomacy comes in. Negotiating for peace is the art of warfare. It is a formidable task to reach a peace deal when bombs are still killing people every single day. (Image: AI using Bing.com Text: impressionist oil painting of two soldiers from different countries shaking hands and making peace). 
Geister
“ Herr, die Not ist groß!/ Die ich rief, die Geister/ werd ich nun nicht los.“ Dieses Zitat aus dem Zauberlehrling von Goethe aus dem Jahr 1797 könnte im Juli 2023 von Putin ausgerufen worden sein. Als der von ihm geförderte und üppig finanzierte Chef der Wagner-Armee Prigoschin plötzlich auf Moskau losmarschierte. So sehen das viele Analysten zu Beginn des scheinbaren Angriffs auf Moskau eigener Söldnertruppen. Frei nach Goethe fragen wir uns also: Wer und Wo ist der Meister? Wer ist hier der Zauberlehrling? Aber schon Goethe hat seine Ballade rasch und ohne Überraschung aufgelöst. „In die Ecke, Besen, Besen! Seids gewesen. Denn als Geister ruft euch nur zu seinem Zwecke, erst hervor der alte Meister.“ So entpuppt sich am Ende Putin wohl als der Meister und Progoschin „nur“ als sein Zauberlehrling.
Das ist nicht die herrschende Meinung der Redakteure und Editorialisten (Süddeutsche, LeMonde). Literatur der Romantik sollte besser aus der Tagespolitik herausgehalten werden. Weit gefehlt. Sie weitet den Blick auf Herrschende, meist Autokraten, und ihre tragischen Lebensverläufe.
Jetzt mal eine ernsthafte Vision(?) eines Politikberaters. Da die Mission von Prigoschin mit Unterstützung oder angeordnet von Putin in Butcha als abgeschlossen galt, und das Staatsheer diese Aufgabe übernommen hatte, wäre Prigoschin arbeitslos geworden. Den treuen Chefkoch Prigoschin aus St. Petersburger Zeiten, der Putin in seinen Restaurants schon hätte vergiften können, hat seinem Meister vorgeschlagen, Putins faktischen Schutz vor einem Anschlag oder einer militärischen Einsatzgruppe zu testen.
Militärisch gesprochen, läuft das entweder unter einer „false flag attack“, eines mit russischer Flagge getarnten Angriffs, oder einer „white flag attack“, dem Vorspiegeln einer geschützten friedlichen Mission (vgl. trojanisches Pferd).
Aus der Sprache der Börsianer kennen wir ebenfalls die „weiße Ritter“ Attacken. Dabei versucht ein anderes Unternehmen, eine InvestorIn oder eine im Hintergrund agierende Person (Progoschin), eine feindliche Übernahme eines Unternehmens zu verhindern. Dabei sind Mehrheitsbeteiligungen am Zielunternehmen oder Fusionsangebote die gewollte Lösung und Abwendung der feindlichen Übernahme.
Im Internetzeitalter kennen wir die bezahlten Hacker, die eine Webseite eines Unternehmens oder Behörde auf Schwachstellen testen und damit Datenschutz, Erpressung und Ausfälle vermeiden helfen.
Klingt alles kompliziert, ist es aber nicht. Es ist einfach Teil des modernen Arsenals von Strategen à la Clausewitz. Schachspielen mit echten Söldnern ist grausam und kostet echte Menschenleben für den Machterhalt. Der militärische Probealarm wurde getestet und der Schutz um Putin, den Meister mit seinem Zauberbesen kann verbessert werden. Sein Zauberlehrling Prigorschin ist wohl vielleicht sogar vom Springer (Schachfigur) in einen Turm eingetauscht worden. Vielleicht ist er aber schon längst die Dame an der Seite des Königs oder eben einer der Geister im Umfeld von Putin.
Political theory
In the Handbook of political theory, Chandran Kukathas (2004, pp.250) explains the uneasy relationship between nationalism and multiculturalism in politics and political theory. The Russian war in Ukraine can be considered as a way of suppression of multiculturalism in Russia by negating the right of Ukraine to be an independent nation. As Russia is not allowing “group rights” (Offe, 1998) for Ukrainians or other minorities like the Chechens within Russia, the secession of regions is a permanent threat to the survival of the Russian state.
“How the many can live as one remains a salient question in political theory” (Kukathas 2004, pp.261). Democracies have squared this circle with reference to federalism. Remember, the very foundation of the United States of America has been built on the Federalist papers. Organising regional diversity is at the heart of democracies’ success and failure. In most democratic political systems 2 chambers have contributed to make the voices of the regions heard at the central level. It remains an obvious question to doubt the possibility of authoritarian states to ensure unity despite diversity.
In non-explanatory theory, if we consider those still a theory, we could derive a hypothesis that authoritarian states will eventually fail to accommodate multiculturalism or allowing sufficient diversity and still survive as political unity. The history of the fall of empires is full of examples in this respect. Another more internal threat has been and still is corruption. Corruption was on the list of issues mentioned in the June 2023 uprise and defeat of the rebel military group “Wagner” in Russia. Non-explanatory political theory might still offer some clues, rationale and hypotheses to stimulate the analysis of international relations. The survival of democracies and/or authoritarian regimes estimated on the basis of huge data bases are hard to come by or lack crucial indicators or timeliness. Such reasoning makes the referral to Clausewitz as theorist of war still a common point of reference. The recent example of Russia , however, shows acting in the national interest can easily be claimed by multiple actors in international politics. (Image: House of European History, Brussels). 
Ukraine Diary
The gallery curated by Dr. Justyna Napiórkowsak in Brussels has another ongoing exhibition with art work from Ukrainian artists. As before in the exhibitions on the war of Russia in Ukraine, they put a major emphasis on the independence and resilience of Ukrainian art despite the ongoing war. To keep a diary of atrocities, but also survival and resistance to violence by Ukrainians, is a great effort. It stems primarily from artists that struggle to find adequate material to keep working or not to succumb to the participation in active war or military defence efforts. Using soft colours, water colours, has a rather symbolic meaning, after the inundation caused by the explosion of the huge water reservoir on Ukraine’s territory. Producing art in form of a diary, like reporting daily to yourself and the outside world as well as later born persons, has an important historic function, too.
No less than the “Diaries of Anne Franck” comes to our mind when thinking about a diary during war time. Russia’s attempt to eradicate Ukrainian culture is bound to fail. We shall cherish the Ukrainian diaries from the war time now and later. Thanks for reminding us of this collector’s duty to support the artists, writers and people of Ukraine. 