Tag: politics

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Peak Refugees

The number of refugees in the world has stabilized at a very high level. According to the data from the UN Refugee agency (UNHCR) until mid 2025 the number stands at 36.6 million people. With slight decreases in the last 2 years, the challenges remain at a high level. The 10 top countries hosting the largest numbers of refugees are Iran, Turkey, Columbia, Germany, Uganda, Pakistan, Chad, Peru, Poland and Ethiopia (compare Fig 4 of report). It is particularly remarkable that this list of countries is relatively little associated with a country’s level of average income. Humanitarian concerns and being a neighboring country play an important role. We all hope that we have witnessed peak refugees and that an assisted and safe return will be a feasible option for many of them eventually. Although we know that many people suffer from authoritarian regimes and, for many years, don’t have a return option in sight. (Image: Documentation Center on refugees in Berlin) 

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Good or bad

We have been taught by Shakespeare “to be or not to be, that is the question”. In political science we have pondered the question in a slightly augmented form. “to be good or bad, that is our question”. The basic image of women and men in society has been a subject throughout the history of ideas. For those who believe in the good nature of mankind, they tend to find reasons to believe that eventually mankind will find a way towards a peaceful cohabitation on our planet (there is no planet B yet for humans). On the other hand, each outbreak of violence and war are considered as a confirmation that mankind will always recur to some form of violence, even after extensive periods of peaceful cohabitation. According to the evidence presented by Meller, Michel, van Schaik, referring back to Kant, trade between people and nations is likely to prevent more violent relationships (p. 330). One of the major conclusions over the long term view of mankind is, that the periods of war have been far shorter and more rare than a focus on the last 3000 years seems to suggest. Maybe, “to be good or bad” is just a question of demographics of being too many at the same time in the same place.  Population growth and population density might be a powerful driver of “being good or bad”.  (Image: Delacroix, Last words of Marc Aurel)

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Generation Hope

The whole of Europe has good reasons to take a careful look at the stunning protests organized by the young generation in Bulgaria (Le Monde, 2025-12-13). With spectacular repeated demonstrations in the center of Sophia, the young people attempted to stop a government that is likely to sink further into corruption. It is this generation of young people that have experienced and/or lived in other European countries or in other Western-style democracies around the globe that have enough of corruption in politics and social systems more generally. The well-educated Bulgarian youth has managed to overthrow a government that had been subject to pressure from corrupt forced. It is not easy to get rid of corrupt politicians and powerful business interests as a system based on merits rather than ability to pay remain fragile in the first few years of such a transition. It needs a sizable “Generation Hope” as I would like to call these young enthusiasts of democracies. The message reaches well beyond Bulgaria and gives hope to all those whose political systems deteriorate into authoritarianism across the globe. It took 20 years to build this “Generation Hope” and mobile youth that takes home the messages and learnings from other democracies. Based on statistics from Eurostat we know about the strong in-migration from Turkey and Russia into Bulgaria. Youth is particularly likely to leave authoritarian regimes to seek a better future in democracies, for example as part of the Generation Hope” in Bulgaria. (Image: Cour constitutionel Paris) 

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Deep Fake Threat

Our Western democracies are aware that “deep fake videos”, radio, online-newspapers and most of all social media platforms are all around us already. However, more scientific voices alert us that this threat to our easy or comfortable way of life to consume information eventually threatens the survival of our democracies. Previously, interference in elections used to focus on rigged election procedures, but in the 21st century powerful other alternatives can do the dirty job to bias elections against the original intentions of the electorate. The widespread use of AI will exacerbate the already practiced ways to produce deep fakes. In a preparatory self-test of an AI-assisted chatbot I was surprised myself of the quality of the output. A person not very familiar with my original voice in a second language would assume that it is me who is being interviewed in person. Based on a fake news text, any form will be automatically translated into voice only and/or video based on basic visuals.
Statisticians used to joke some decades ago: “Don’t believe in any statistics, unless you faked it yourself.” This is meant to encourage people to be aware of dangers of the use of statistics to influence opinions or official decision-making, like in policy making of central banks, which might be based on biased accounting for shrinkflation, cheatflation or greedflation to name just a few,
Hence, the need to strengthen awareness, analytical skills and critical thinking should be high on the agenda to defend our democracies. There are not only external military threats, but additional ones masked as internal threats.
(Image:: mice as humans in living room 2 couch potatos 1 on rocking chair, tea time)

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Foul-smelling dictatorship

The animal world is full of interesting strategies of how to turn over a foul-smelling ruler or dictatorship. The ant queen of “lasius orientalis” infiltrates a colony of “lavius flavus” to spray the incumbent queen with a foul-smelling substance which turns the worker ants against their own queen and eventually kills the queen. This is a rather intelligent strategy to trick the defense system of rival colonies and prepare a takeover of a whole colony to install your own reign.
This may constitute a stark warning for democracies just as much as a threat to persistent dictatorships. In the age of the not so social media there is a lot of foul-smells produced. Beware of the risks to democracy as open societies are much easier to infiltrate than closed societies or dictatorships. (Link)

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Dynamic Equilibrium

The notion of a dynamic equilibrium is applied in several scientific disciplines. The search of the world wide web takes us first to the application in chemistry. The dynamic equilibrium denotes the state when reactants and products are continuously converted. Fascinating as a process, there are videos where you can watch the process evolve. Applications in economic or social theory are also common even if the time scales to observe such processes of dynamic equilibrium usually take longer to evolve than in chemistry of bubbles. In physics we ponder about dynamic equilibria in Newton’s view of gravitational forces between planets and the celestial system. With a more down to earth approach we might just admire the dynamic equilibrium of an artist on a rope, before we dive into the complex challenges of the new balance of power in international politics of the multipolar world. 

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Codes of Emperors

Even in the 21st century we spot the ancient codes of emperors. In Brussels the statue of King Albert, who ruled until 1933 and celebrated the first centenary of the Kingdom of Belgium in 1930, shows the Emperor riding a horse without saddle. This iconic position was started as a symbol of a powerful leadership by Marc Aurel and continued by Napoleon’s reign as well as several other ones.
The position on the elevated podium of the emperor on the horse, which further raises him beyond the level of the people, all contribute to the idealized perception of the king above the people. Such a vertical or hierarchical perspective on society or even mankind, including the colonial approaches of the emperors, are the lasting attributes of those times.  According to Els Witte et al. who wrote on the political history of Belgium, King Albert I was also named King Knight by some.
The portrayal and self-portrayal played an important role already centuries ago. No surprise that democracy has brought about an avalanche of idealized self-portraits or “selfies”.

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Political Economy 2025

As the global markets have moved from an international economic system based on competition to a world of protectionism based on arbitrary tariffs and restrictions, it feels strange to spot banners in Brussels in 2025-10 entitled “Competitive Europe Summit”. Participants at the conference appear to be “barking up the wrong tree”. In industries, and even more so in most services, access to markets is the necessary condition to embark on competition. No access, no competition. Tariffs or taxes are created to stifle competition.
All this has multiple reasons. One reason is to create an equal playing field among countries. Previously, we thought exchange rates of currencies and eventually purchasing power parities would shift following changes in competitiveness. This mainstream economic thinking has been disrupted through Putin’s war on Ukraine territory. The MAGA political economy narrative has impacted the competition between countries as well, (1) with its rhetoric and (2) back and forth changes in tariffs. Competition with countries which do not respect basic principles of fairness in competition can no longer be confronted with a mantra of a “competitive Europe”.
A more unified Europe could deal with the “politico-economic” fact that the global economy is much less concerned with the idea of competitiveness than in the last few decades of the last millennium (70s, 80s, 90s). Powerplay between nations maybe regarded as a kind of competition for dominance, but a sole focus on economic competition is grossly misleading nowadays after 3 years of the Russian aggression, at least with a focus on the short and middle distance run.

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Marc Aurel Book 6

Some passages of Book 6 can be understood like quotes of much later works, even like writings of the enlightenment period. Take this one: “If someone can prove me wrong and show me my mistake in any thought or action, I shall gladly change. I seek the truth, which never harmed anyone: the harm is to persist in one’s own self-deception and ignorance.” (para 21 in Penguin Classics version, also in Greek original and French translation).
The same passage in historic English: “If anybody shall reprove me, and shall make it apparent unto me, that in any either opinion or action of mine I do err, I will most gladly retract. For it is the truth that I seek after, by which I am sure that never any man was hurt; and as sure, that he is hurt that continueth in any error, or ignorance whatsoever.” (Para XX in Gutenberg.org online reader).
Why is this already an enlightened vision of truth? In the search for truth, he is open to criticism or doubt by others (maybe even irrespective of societal standing) and, moreover, ready to change his conviction and action. Religious doctrines of the time and many centuries after his writings would not have accepted such a doubtful mind who might change due to (scientific) reasons. Long before “Cogito ergo sum” (René Descartes, (1637), I think, therefore I am, of the early enlightenment, Marc Aurel might be summarized in this paragraph as “Cogito, ergo dubio”, I think, therefore I doubt – and I may change accordingly.
(Image: Ossip Zadkine, Forêt humaine, Musée Zadkine Paris)

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Marc Aurel Book 1

The reading of Marc Aurel’s Meditations in its Book 1 offers first of all his acknowledgments of people who had a lasting impact on him or offered learnings to him. He presented these learnings or take-home lessons as we call this nowadays in a style of “positive psychology”. This means writes about the positive influences and which kinds of positive behaviors he saw in living examples of others and which he felt were particularly worthy of general consideration. In philosophical retrospect we might read the book 1 as a list of “categorical imperatives” which would make a decent life feasible for all. His acknowledgments start with 1 line on his grandfather (decency and mild temper), 2 lines on his biological father (integrity and manliness), 3 lines on his mother (piety, generosity, avoidance of wrongdoing and simplicity of living), but 4 lines on his tutor, even more on other advisers, 20+ on his adoptive father, which is more than on “the gods”.  All these experiences impregnated him with a sense for a “ruler’s responsibility for the common good”. (p.8). The stoic virtue lies in the extensive list of positive contributions from others to make him the rather unique philosopher and emperor.

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Napoleon legacy

It is huge historical project to try to summarize the legacy of Napoleon Bonaparte. AI is by design less hesitant to come up with any length of a summary statement some with good references on which the statement is based. In combination with a visit at Fontainebleau and a first hand impression of the environment of the autocratic ruler, the remainders like the introduction of a Civil Code to guide also administrations to lawful conduct, we still see influences of this legal innovation in many other countries across the globe. The recognition of Jews as equal citizens and to allow equal access to property and many professions have been influential across Europe mostly in occupied territories. Military service for Jews in Napoleon’s army was another consequence, which spread into the Prussian army and the 1st world war. It is in the 21st century that we see shifts towards more authoritarian governance styles spreading again, we did not want to see this happen until Russia‘s war in Ukraine. (Image: La Chair de la forêt, Frénésie des Géants by  Wang Keping Fontainebleau 2025-8)

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Fontainebleau library

The “Galerie de Diane” in Fontainebleau has been built during Napoleon’s reign. It hosts the library with a large collection of books. The function of the books seems to be more to intimidate the persons passing by rather than ready for inspection. The globe at the entrance reflects the ambition of the ruler. The fact that you have to walk some stairs upwards increases the impression to be little compared to this universe of knowledge. It is great that libraries have flipped this perspective and today we study the period of Napoleon’s reign with our democratic values in mind. The top-down approach was the incarnation of Napoleon’s style of government. Despite the revival of such governance styles in the 21st century across the globe, they are unlikely to last for more years than Napoleon’s fate. A simple reason for this may be the only representative or intimidating role of knowledge in such forms of governance rather than an open mind approach. 

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Fontainebleau Throne

The French history is full of kings and emperors who have ruled the country. The Chateau Fontainebleau has the longest history of kings who lived there and held office, a pre-modern version of “home office”. The most remarkable and distinguished furniture of a king is the throne reserved for office hours. Napoleon created a special throne room at Fontainebleau which is also the only one preserved in its original form until today. It is just one of the home office rooms of the emperor. The antechambers, council room and study had to be passed before to reach the ear and audience of the emperor. The history of the home office and thrones have been intertwined ever since. 

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Korean Independence

The independence of a country is sometimes a long struggle. At particular points in time, a window of opportunity may open up, which allows to change the course of history. In many cases the opportunity to gain independence has been prepared for several decades, at least from 1919 onwards to come to fruition only after the end of the Pacific war, shortly after the Nazi-regime was defeated. The long and relentless preparation of the Korean Provisional Government ensured that a consensual constitution was ready to be adopted and elections to be held. The resulting division of Korea into 2 parts (South and North), just like East and West Germany, is rather long lived on historical time scales. For that matter, the hope of a peaceful unification needs to be reiterated again and again. The informative exhibition of the Korean Cultural Center to Belgium and the EU highlights the continued “Dream of Peace” which continues even after more than 100 years.

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History coined

It is an ambitious project to frame history of a country or continent according to the succession of coins. In the KBR such an attempt is currently on display in 2025. The history of a country in the center of Europe is reflected sometimes through different occupying forces who imposed their currency onto the occupied territories. The Greeks and Romans had an overriding impact on the development of coins in human history and society.  Precious metals were used as basis to embody lasting value into coins. The images on coins are also a way to reiterate the dominance of a new ruler or governance. From the Roman occupation there are nice specoin the KBR collection as Julius Caesar named one part of the 4 occupied territories “Belgica” beyond what we define as borders of Belgium in the 21st century. Control of your own currency means also to be able to produce unique pieces in your own foundries. The history of coins is also a history coined by those in power to enforce their political power onto the economy. (Image: KBR, The history of Belgium illustrated through coins, 2025).

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Permanently anxious

„There’s a set of forces that want us to be permanently anxious“, is the phrase chosen by Tony Cokes in the exhibit just outside the „Palais Populaire“ in Berlin in 2025-5. International politics and the economic upheaval caused by Trump’s tariffs contribute to the already existing other sources of anxiety like nuclear energy and warfare. Global warming causing more extreme weather events add more man-made reasons for anxiety. The next generations will have to foot the bills we have left to them unpaid. Our current shortsightedness increases anxieties which previous generations have not known of a similar kind or in that combination. 

Community building and solidarity are ways to overcome such overwhelming anxieties. Supranational organizations like the European Union have an even stronger role to play to reassure its people with credible signs of solidarity. We are not alone in the struggle to overcome the anxiety that is creeping up around us. We are certainly stronger together than individually dealing with unspecified fears. „We shall overcome …“

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Leber JA

In Berlin Schoeneberg there is a memorial in preparation for the courageous couple of Julius and Annedore Leber. Julius Leber has been incarcerated several times by the Nazi officials, tortured and finally executed in Berlin. A link to the group of people trying to overthrow the NS regime (1944-7-20) caused his arrest and execution in January 1945. His wife Annedore published several accounts of the resistance movements, which existed during the NS regime. These people were aware of the fact that they were risking their life with such activities, but persisted nevertheless. We owe Julius and Annedore Leber a decent commemoration as we need to remember that such courageous examples existed even until the last few months of the NS dictatorship. The site allows for a building and learning center which could serve as an archive and encouragement to fight for democracy. It is less obvious than we thought it would be.

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Local history

In Berlin and many other big cities in Germany like Munich and Hamburg there are local history projects which tell the stories of specific places or a house linked to liberation day or deportation or courageous acts during the Nazi  grip on Germany and terror across Europe. The initiative « Denkmal am Ort » has become a kind of citizen science project which brings people together to raise awareness again for the cruelties committed under the dictatorship of Hitler and the fascist political movements. Remembrance is not a passive form it can take many active forms as well by simply trying to find an answer to the question what happened during the 30s, 40 and 1950s in the house you are currently living in? Access to archives of cities and small towns can tell very surprising stories about local history. It is a great inter generational experience as well and sometimes the unspoken history turns into a great conversation about history and responsibilities. History is everywhere you just need to keep your eyes and mind open.

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Constitutional Responsibility

The memory of horrors caused by Nazi-led Germany before and during the 2nd World War is our constitutional obligation in the Federal Republic of Germany since its beginnings in 1948. 80 years after the unconditional surrender this has become a state responsibility. Since the shift of tone introduced by Richard von Weizäcker on 8th of May 1985 framing the end of the 2nd WW as liberation day in Europe and Germany. On the same day, 40 years later, the top 5 political instances of democracy in Germany, president, chancellor, presidents of the parliament (1st chanber), the council of the regions (2nd chamber) as well as the constitutional court. The constitutional and moral responsibility of the crimes is not reserved to a presidential address, but all pilars of democracy in Germany committed to the narrative of a liberation of Germans and Europeans at the end of the 2WW. It is a truly European topic to celebrate the end of war jointly in all countries. This is even more the case as the memories of the last survivors of the Shoa in Europe is less transmitted by the rare survivors until today due to very old age. The impressive unity of the top constitutional powers sets a the path for a far reaching renewal of the acknowledgement of a specific constitutional responsibility to counter extremist tendencies. The speeches by Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Julia Klöckner in the Bundestag (Link in German) were remarkable in explaining in plain language, why we are happy about this liberation also in Germany. The emphasis of the end of pervasive and endless oppression and suffering caused by the Nazi-regime are an essential part of this feeling of liberation. With this commemoration Germany today has become even more a European nation which takes its historical responsibility seriously.

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Marx Home

The home of an influential philosopher, economist and political scientist is not easily presented like a home of a musician, a composer or an author. However, the home of Karl Marx in Trier on the Moselle river succeeds to present the biographical links of growing up in a historic city, the bourgeois upbringing of the young Marx and his formation as an independent and even revolutionary thinker of the economy and society. In 2025 the home is a museum supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foudation with a great online guide and access to additional scientific material. For authors like Karl Marx it is always of interest to follow not only the origin and evolution of the thought process, but also the shifts in the reception of his writings by subsequent generations. This part of the exhibition and an audio guide (downloadable as App).

In 2025 with an apparently ruthless capitalism at work in the biggest economy of the globe, the reminder that the economy is best to be understood as a political economy, which focuses on self-interest and profitable business deals, we find in Karl Marx still a worthwhile reminder of economic development even in the 21st century. The note-taking and studies in Exile in London are well documented in the tiny home and museum. Studying the misery of exploitation in supply chains and international commerce remains a topic of continuing interest as well. 

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Sovereignty of People

In France the judiciary has made an influential decision to ban a politician from the possibility to be elected after conviction of fraud. This is just what is to be expected from the 3rd power in the organization of a democratic state. It is surprising that there was a political debate about a person convicted for a crime to be eligible for public office. Several eminent scholars published columns in major newspapers to support the judicial decision. Pierre Rosanvallon focused both on the justification of the verdict and the constitutional role attributed to the judiciary to operate as a kind of memory of the “general will of the people”, the ultimate sovereign. In the struggle of power within a state the judiciary defends individual rights as well as moderates between the executive and the legislative branch. In the theory of democracy this creates a double bind situation in which the individual has a right to be defended against the state and individuals who ask for judgment of cases one against another one. Eric Halphen has also argued in favor of the often neglected role of the judiciary to stand up for the “general interest”, a notion which is not easy to define without historical references in each country and its historical trajectory of democracy. The short debate about the role of the judiciary has strengthened the defensive capacity of the French democracy. Other, even mature democracies may turn their eyes on the decision of the judges involved not to shun away from unpopular decisions. The independence of the judiciary is part of the sovereignty of the people and non-negotiable part of it.

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Journalists Scientists

In the theories of democracy journalism has entered the stage mainly in form of a controlling mechanism that is part of an extended checks and balances system of democracy. Independent journalists serve as effective multipliers and critical commentators which are an essential element of a well functioning democratic society. Social media’s ability to reach large audiences without adherence to independent journalists’ principles pose challenges to the way journalists are perceived by the public. The border between journalism and influencer marketing of products and opinions is continuously under pressure. Voices not heard,  underrepresented or those with few resources for large scale communication face difficulties to communicate their views in a market flooded with information and marketing. 

Another challenge to journalists is the fast evolution of scientific research and knowledge which at times derives from complicated theoretical and/or empirical methods. Hence, the relationship between journalistic reporting and scientific rigor and need for details in reporting are hard to reconcile. This necessitates a continuous dialogue between scientists and journalists to be aware of potentials and limitations to the co-evolution of the two disciplines. In order to avoid a self-referential subset in each discipline, the demonstration of successful cooperation between the two disciplines reveals the complementary role in many real-world instances. Investigative journalists often rely on additional scientific expertise and scientists who uncover manipulations of any sort in their work have to cooperate to inform society about the topics. As with global warming or PFAS risks scientists get drawn more and more into the checks and balances role within democracies. Therefore in addition to the separation of powers claimed in the political literature of the enlightenment (executive, parliamentary and judicial) we added already the 4th one of journalism and should include (5th) independent scientific research and reporting into the essential principles of well functioning democracies. The conference at the BNF in Paris on the 28th of March has raised these timely questions in the best tradition of the ongoing process of enlightenment.

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Präludium Prélude

Learners of how to play the piano are likely to pass the composition of J. S. Bach entitled Präludium in German and Prélude in French. Maybe that influences the approach to the piece of music. The title sounds different in each language. It is interesting to follow the Präludium Prélude throughout the history of composition. The pianist Jan Lisiecki has just recorded and released a disc with Deutsche Grammophon following the historic evolution of this genre. The rather easy-going beginnings by Bach (see below for extract of first motive) have turned out to become rather complex preludes with subsequent composers. We may ask ourselves at this occasion: a prelude to what? Your own associations are welcome. In international politics we can observe strategic movements of countries and their military equipment as a prelude of war, but also of peace. Small aggressions may turn into wars. In philosophy Nietzsche praised the dawn (Morgenröte) and focused a lot on new beginnings. Composers might be the best forecasters of what is to come in the following years. Certainly the preludes have foreshadowed some of their later work. Nowadays, many LLMS in AI build on algorithms that predict what is the next word to write or task to do. Even in composition AI is moving ahead fast. Hence, we e are likely to study preludes much more for several reasons now.  

(Image: extract of first motive from J. S. Bach Präludium Nr 1)

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Biography Memorial

Some biographies take the form of a memorial. Marie-Luise Conen and Zdravko Kucinar have erected a memorial for the researcher, author and Social Demokrat “Milian Schömann” from the “Moselle” region near Traben-Trarbach and Lösnich. The biography reads like a narrative of crimes, which goes without punishment, before and during the Nazi-terror and the power grip in rural areas in the late 1920s and early 1930s. Milian Schömann achieved his university entry qualification A-levels in Traben-Trarbach before he moved on to study German literature and philosophy in Heidelberg, Bonn and Berlin.
His studies and political engagement were driven by a humanist approach and his letters and publications as literary critic as well as his contributions to philosophy are partly reproduced in this biographical account. This allows to follow in the footsteps of the curious and open-minded person of Jewish descent. As a contributor and speaker at meetings of SPD-members and associated political movements, he risked and eventually lost his life for his humanitarian convictions in 1942 near Belgrade.
It is the merit of Marie-Luise Conen and Zdravko Kucinar to let Milian Schömann live on in our time through the reprinting of some of his work, which is embedded in a  well-written historical account of the political and family setting at that time. The professional psychological training of Marie-Luise Conen helps to reproduce the anxious atmosphere Milian Schömann has lived through, albeit he remained a productive writer despite the economic hardship and living in exile.
This biography accomplishes in a rather unique way to enter into the mind and thinking of the author Milian following his very personal perspective on the “history of ideas” and inner call to action. Similar to the appreciation of Viktor Ullmann in the Jewish Museum in Berlin, where the music of the composer lives on after his death, the writings of Milian Schömann survived extinction, despite that he was murdered. After more than 80 years we still feel the loss of potential other contributions to philosophy and literary studies. The recognition extends to Milian’s academic and personal mentors Oskar Walzel and Arthur Liebert, important sources to understand the reasoning and motivation of Milian.
(Image: Extract from Marie-Luise Conen and Zdravko Kucinar (2024) Milian Schömann, Paulinus Verlag, Trier, p. 139)

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Minority Politicians

We have regulations in favor of minorities in many countries. Most people immediately jump to their opinions about specific minorities they most strongly feel about. Favoritism through targeted policies versus discrimination are key issues here. Evaluation of effective policies to support minorities needs solid science before jumping to premature conclusions.
A recent study on the largest minority group of extraordinary people, often denoted as persons with disabilities, has focused on political representation. The results confirmed the hypothesis of an under-represention of the group in parliaments. Reher & Evans (2024) show ample evidence that despite the large and increasing shares of persons with disabilities (about 20-25% across Europe) under-represention is likely to lead to lack of concern of society as whole to topics of relevance to them. By-the-way, most of such policies would equally benefit an aging society and young families for example with regard to mobility. Perhaps another striking example is the tendency of extraordinary persons to not report their kind of disability out of fear of stigmatization and potential discrimination.
Policy makers need to take a long-term perspective to reorient public spending in favor of extraordinary persons. Infrastructure investments are needed here as well. More persons with disabilities across all political parties can bring about such changes. Extraordinary persons deserve equal representation. It is up to us to make it happen.
(Image: German Bundestag 2025-2).

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Unwinding USA

Stock markets move largely due to expectations. Therefore, the mixing of economics and politics can create lots of signals, which are likely to raise price expectations. Inflationary pressures will call for central banks to increase interest rates which will reduce economic activities that are largely financed through the credit market.
The unwinding of the economy reduces turnover and most likely also profits of companies. The fate of Tesla cars in the last 2 months (Link) and the stock market value of Tesla shares (Link) have plummeted. The unwinding of shareholder value and inflation on the rise as well are a the effects of the MAGA narrative and Musk‘s appointment in politics as chief of GOPE.
The „home made recession“ in the US and the choice to prioritize own products might work in the long run, but the costs of the short-term induced inflation will affect vulnerable consumers more than the people who buy many products that show few price increases. The unwinding of the economy of the USA is likely to cause shock waves rippling through the global economy.
Image: Prices to charge e-cars with solar energy in Germany according to sunshine.

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Corruption Caught

In fraud or corruption it is primordial that the probability to be caught is very high to deter potential fraudulent activity. The new Trump administration has enacted as one of the first executive orders that the FCPA stops to take on new cases of suspected corruption as well as reconsider some of the running procedures. In the same vein, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) has been silenced so that American companies to not have to disclose ownership information that fall under the CTA until 2025-3-21 until a major reform will be published.
These policy shifts concern more than just US citizens. The competition between countries will be effected because as companies trading with the US which used US bank accounts were also liable under this legislation and subject to prosecution. The FCPA has been an important example for other countries to follow at least within the Member countries of the OECD. The shift in priorities of the Trump administration might open doors again to corruption which we believed were shut with lasting effect.
In conjunction with the rapid increase in military spending when the capacity for the production of military equipment is slow to increase might increase the risks of corruption talking hold again. Market economies build on fair competition, but less prosecution of corruption introduces a bias into negotiations which works against innovation and competitiveness. We have a hard time to understand any kind of logic in such economic and legal strategies.
Image: Bridge collapsed due ro material defects. Archive Berlin Tempelhof Schöneberg.

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Betrayal Politics

Most economists would hold that in free market economics there is no room for moral statements. Betrayal, therefore, is left out of most standard text book economics courses. However, more advanced courses that include strategies based on so-called “game theory”, where actors may breach prior commitments, betrayal has entered economic science. A “tit-for-tat” strategy is frequently the best “game-theoretic” solution to such strategic behavior to deter also repetition of defecting on agreed rules or bargaining outcomes. For real world applications beyond the simple strategic advice, the maths involved are quite challenging. We’ll check soon, how AI is changing that game.
Another popular economic theory is one of “gift exchange”. You gift a sum of money (or weapons for self-defense to a country) with no explicit consent that the money should be repaid (through rare earths) in peace time. A betrayal occurs, if a country suddenly asks things in return for the previous gifts. For politicians that understand themselves as “market marker” and “deal maker”, there will be a tendency to claim back a gift in order to come to some kind of gift exchange rather than an altruistic donation.
William A. Galston wrote in the WSJ (2025-2-26) naming the US political action of the 2nd Trump administration a “betrayal of Ukraine and American values”.
If free markets mean making ruthless use of “tit for no possible tat” and “gifts are always a gift exchange”, we move back to mercantile and medieval practices, where settles could claim land at gun point.
What way out of this? Adam Smith, champion of classical economics, wrote before his famous book on “The Wealth of Nations” a lesser known, precursor book on “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”. Actually, he was convinced that the one would not work without the other.
Maybe, going back to classical economics is much better than a Trump administration version of neo-classical economics in a new era of political economy 3.0.

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Top 5 Things T5T

Dealing with Elon Musk is a must these days (WSJ 2025-2-26 A4).
So it happened that on his way to Mars, Musk met God the almighty on his way back to heaven. Musk asked, whether he could join the ride.
God, not amused, asked Musk about his T5T (top 5 things) he accomplished in his life. Musk questioned God‘s right to ask this question and said he would tell the other T about this. God gave him just another day to come up with a response.
So here we are: the T5T Elon Musk might put forward:
(1) I created a million fancy electric cars.
God: Well, but there were already too many tin boxes on 4 wheels on earth.
(2) I created rockets that propelled billionaires into space and back again.
God: Your carbon footprint has exceeded a million people of the poorest countries on earth.
(3) I created a network of satellites that facilitated communication.
God: Nobody spoke to me yet using it.
(4) I bought Twitter and transformed the platform to spread evangelism of various sorts.
God: This has become a hoax spreading more lies than truth.
(5) I reformed the public sector employees to share my beliefs or leave.
God: This will ruin a lot of services like USAID, which have assisted me for many years in my caring and charitable service.
With all these T5T of yours in mind I am not sure I should let you return to that planet earth. Maybe I‘ll find another assignment for you where you can cause less harm Elon. Maybe, try “Waiting for Godot“.
(Image: instead of T5T try T4T (tea for two))

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Insecurity Council

The UN Security Council has been turned into the Insecurity Council. The UN Plenary Session voted with a 2/3 majority on 2025-2-24 the draft Resolution L.10 stating: “Three years after the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the General Assembly today adopted two resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity …”. As part of this resolution the UN General Assembly claims “accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine …”.
The UN Insecurity Council (15 Members, China, USA Russia, F, UK as permanent Members) adopted  almost in parallel with 10 votes in favor and 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom) resolution 2774 (2025) calling for a swift end to conflict. The most notable change in international politics is the changed voting behavior of the USA, which has retreated from an outspoken condemnation of Russia as aggressor and occupant of foreign territory.
The “revealing of masks” in what appears to be a neo-imperialist period of time has come. The set-up of the post  1945 UN institution of the Security Council has lost a major function to prevent armed conflicts and early reaction potential. The force to aim for and guarantee international peace lies much more in the hand of the plenary of the UN rather than the small select Security Council dominated by previous superpowers largely due to their possession of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
The voting of a resolution by the Insecurity Council, which is in contradiction with a resolution of the UN General Assembly concerning the spirit, if not the words, is a source of insecurity itself. A reform of the UN system, which risks to become a “shopping system” of lenient organizations, where you join and leave the organization (UNESCO, WHO, WTO …) will loose impact.
For many people and countries, the only hope for a guarantee of human rights lies with the United Nations Human Rights Charter, peace keeping missions and International Courts. The UN Security Council as an Insecurity Council is likely to let down many people truly seeking a peaceful life.
(Image: The Fall of Icarus, Pablo Picasso, at HQ UNESCO, Paris)