For all scholars of the theory of democracy the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville (1835) “De la démocratie en Amérique” are a major point of reference. The comparison of the democracy in America with the French king and both constitutions reveals comparative strengths and weaknesses of political systems. Korea after the 4th of December 2024 is yet another warning of what are the dangers to democratic systems. The attempted “coup d’état” by the president of Korea together with a former defense minister and several hundred soldiers has failed due to the speedy reaction of the elected members of parliament and an attentive and reactive public (Korea Times reports).
Tocqueville (p.130-131, French edition online) states, beyond the separation of powers (John Locke), the importance of the right to nominate key positions in a society also public opinion for the survival of democracy. Modern social media have increased the “reaction time” of public opinion and the “time to action” if need be. The combination of both elements of public opinion ensured that parliamentarians in Korea rushed to parliament and used their potentially last chance to vote against the imposed martial law, which started to seal off parliament already.
Several lessons for democratic systems derive from this. Separation of power remains key for democracy. The distribution of state functions on many shoulders under the control of parliament are essential. Legal mechanisms, in case of a spontaneous attack on the system, have to be able to react fast in order to avoid spreading fake news about legality/illegality of interventions. Public opinion, the people at large, should have their opinions distributed rapidly as well. This is necessary even beyond the traditional media of TV, radio and print. In Korea 2024 the attempted “coup d’état” tried also to block traditional media and prominent figures of the opposition with high power of influencing and reach on social media.
Tocqueville stated already that kings are threatened by revolution. Elected presidents have to fear public opinion. A lesson still valid beyond the US., France and Korea in the 21st century.
(Image: joint exhibition at “Traditional Korean Painting”, Korean Cultural Centre Brussels, 2024) 
On Resilience
There are at least 2 definitions of resilience: (1) a material definition points at the “ability to return to an original form or position after being compressed, extended or curved, and (2) a immaterial or psychological definition. The latter one describes the ability to recover, be happy or successful anew having overcome a bad or challenging experience. The American psychological literature defines resilience in the shortest form as “positive adaptation despite adversity”. The psychological construct is linked to a positive life span perspective of personal development. Other areas of application range from “resilient investments”, “resilient industries” to single resilient societies or intergovernmental organizations like the European Union or NATO.
The challenges to resilience increase with complexity of societies and social as well as technical systems. As supply chains have become longer in time and travelling longer distances as well, the improvement of resilience has become a steep challenge for globalization. Reorganizing supply chains with “own sourcing” as in countries which are cut-off from international trade will have huge consequences on sending and receiving countries.
Last, but not least, countries like Ukraine demonstrate the fact and virtue of resilience after more than 1000 days of the massive Russian invasion of its country, which threatened its survival. Resilience works best in networks of organizations and countries. Solidarity is a fundamental building block of resilience as well. Donations and funds support activities that foster resilience. 
On Woke-ability
The past particle of “to awake” is “woke“. As early as the 1960s the term woke has appeared in a New York Times article to reflect the idea that in the African-American History movement you woke up to a new movement, leaving behind discriminatory practice and rhetoric. The definition of woke in dictionaries refers to an awareness of social facts and injustices. Additionally, the use of woke has implied a need to act upon injustices due to social and/or ethnic origin. Elements of the woke movement were the use of more general non-discriminatory terms like people of color (POC) in official documents and revisions of textbooks for pupils. Subsequently, the application of the term woke spread to other social concerns like the discrimination of LGTBQ+ people in many societies.
The underlying concern was and still is (1) to recognize the discrimination and disadvantages faced by many groups in society and (2) a call for changing the way we talk about it and (3) a shift of policies to counter social injustices. Societies differ in the capacity of “woke-ability”, i.e. the capability to address social inequalities of various types including intersectionality. Societies have never simply been only homogenous. Heterogeneity, plurality and complexity are much better suited to represent societies, regions or countries. It is our willingness to deal with these complexities in an open way which includes the “woke-ability” of social phenomena. Acknowdge a social problem and act upon it. Change the way we talk about a problem and the discoursive practice in general are important steps to address old and new social problems. For example, over the last 50years the discourse with respect to handicapped persons has evolved and the Paris 2024 Paralympics have made this clear to the public on a global scale.
(Image: Installation of Daniel Boyd in the Martin Gropius Bau, Berlin 2023)
On Plurality
Most people are familiar with plurality under the term pluralism with respect to political parties or political systems. We have gotten used to have more than one political party tp represent the right or left in party politics. This is a challenge to people and parties as coalition formation can be a tough challenge to negotiate with a spectrum of parties rather than single representations of opinions and values. Plurality is, however, a more far reaching concept, which is applicable to many other fields of interest. Plurality of living styles are common fields of applications as well. Gender issues beyond binary gender identities qualify as yet another example for the pertinence of the concept. Nature has foreseen a wide variety of species even within subcategories of whatever classification system you apply, just think of trees. A broader variety of individuals is likely to increase the « requisite variety « of evolutionary processes as well. Plurality of modes of transport are another recent example of a widening of technological options available to reaching the same destination. A lot of progress and social progress is relying on allowing plurality to thrive before eventually narrowing down the spectrum. (Image: Sophie Taeuber-Arp, Composition with circles and rectangles, 1932, p. 256 from exhibition catalog 2024) 
On Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a catchword for all sorts of undetermined occurrences, which we might have to confront. We associate economic uncertainty with the difficulty to forecast or predict the economic evolution of key indicators like inflation, GDP, CO2-emissions, energy and raw materials’ prices and availability. Even factors like increases in greed of CEOs, psychological factors like insecurity about external or internal conflicts drive these macroeconomic indicators. Micro-level features of your own stage or evolution of the life course have an impact on and will be affected by uncertainty. Employment, housing, family, or household composition are subject to high levels of uncertainty. These micro- and macro- level factors are, of course, not limited to the domain of economic phenomena. Most recently, political uncertainty has reentered the international and national sphere with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This election outcome of the U.S. is perceived by many as increasing the overall uncertainty due to the unpredictability of political decisions and even previous treaties with the U.S. or where the U.S. is a major partner in the agreement. These economic and political uncertainties are accompanied with a perception of growing legal uncertainty even in very personal spheres of life. Last, but not least uncertainty about climate changes like heating up of the planet and more devastating flooding and droughts contribute to increased uncertainty about future developments and the need to initiate adjustment processes and the financing of those.
The individual and societal ways to cope with increased uncertainty are one of the major economic, political, legal and social issues for the coming years. The answers are likely to be found in mutual, cooperative and risk sharing arrangements. The social in society will be a major part of dealing with increased uncertainty. 
(Image: Extrait of Paul Klee, Seiltänzer 1923)
Nazi SS Terror
The permanent exhibition „Topography of Terror“ in the middle of Berlin is always a place that receives a lot of attention from tourists. This is great news. The central location is certainly part of the success story. The Brandenburg Gate and the boulevard„Unter den Linden“ nearby allow to combine historic interests and site seeing. Many groups from schools gain a visual impression of the terrorism the Nazi dictatorship and its para-military organizations have exercised during the years 1933-1945. The years after the 1st World war until the full dictatorship were crucial to attempt to stem the Nazi tide rolling across Germany from the original Munich-based headquarters. The information on the „Establishment of the Führer‘s Dictatorship“ (image below) is a warning to all of is today to guard against the beginnings of similarly extreme movements and parties today. We shall always remember and we shall never surrender.
Risk Takers
We are all risk takers of one form or the another. Those of us who ride motorbikes or enjoy rock climbing have an above average taste for risk taking. Since the publication of „The risk society“ we are aware that collectively as a society we have taken on additional risks like nuclear energy, atomic weapons or the risk associated with silent climate change with the persistent reliance on fossil fuels to a large extent. Holman W. Jenkins (WSJ) has added an additional perspective on risk takers which originates from government policies to encourage building homes in places subject to high risks of flooding. Several policies come to mind that encourage individuals to take high risks and construct and repair buildings in flood prone areas. Government grants, insurance policies and relocation subsidies are at issue here. Regulations like driving licenses try to build on competences to ensure „more rational risk taking“ in people. Teaching about nutrition might alleviate the obesity pandemic as much as awareness of an active lifestyle can avoid a large number of cardiovascular diseases. Risk taking should be to a large extent an individual’s choice with the consequence to live up to the consequences of the risks taken also more an individual’s responsibility. Collective solutions are a powerful way to encourage additional risk taking. The consequences of those well-defined solutions have to be funded collectively as well. A society-wide discussion and voting process on such issues has to be organized and updated from time to time. (Image Skateboard high and long jumps Brussels 2024-10)
Aging Politicians
The process of aging is usually a process which is progressing slowly. For politicians this process seems to run in fast forward. The churning of people through careers as politicians is quite unpredictable despite the fact that a career track through youth organizations of political parties or non-governmental organizations is a fairly good predictor of prospects of a career within this party. As the political culture has become even more rough through the comments and criticism of official media and social media, the expectations to be available for comment and debate are almost instantaneous. Burn-out and frustration are a more frequent occurrence. As such this is not surprising, but the young age of these occurrences are real concern. The profession of politicians bears many risks and even threats to their lives. Democracies rely heavily on able politicians who master complex subjects and can communicate effectively about these topics. Aging societies can no longer just claim that politicians should reflect the age structure of society. It remains a challenge to train and support young people for jobs in politics. It is also an issue to prepare for a sustainable career in politics and keep motivation high to go the extra mile in the interest of society as a whole. (Image: Extract of Adolphe Menzel, Das Ballsouper, 1878, SPK Berlin)
Ukraine Chess
Strategies in Chess, sometimes, inform strategic behavior in wars. In chess there are clear definitions of 2 opponents and their material. Modern warfare has blurred both elements. Opposing parties build alliances and the material allowed or available is hotly debated as well. The war of Russia on Ukraine territory, nevertheless, resembles a variant of a chess game considering the different stages of the game. All starts with Russia choosing its opening attacks. A rather aggressive version of the opening is the King’s Gambit in which a fast attack tries to overwhelm the opponent. Ukraine, because of the surprise and lack of immediate support from neighboring countries, chose a careful defense trying to hold the lines amid a fast forward moving assault. A further restriction for Ukraine was to not use weapons from supporters on Russian territory. In chess this would mean your defense is not allowed to cross the middle line of the chessboard. For example the so-called Sicilian defense does exactly this for many moves of the opening. However, in the middle game this changes and the defense might prepare forceful attacks based on a solid defense. With 2 and 1/2 years into the war the opening has played out and we see middle game strategies take the upper hand. In chess this consist in attempts to gain material advantage, possession of strategically important positions and psychological stamina to mention a few. The middle game can drag out for a long time, especially if a balance of power persists. Even in an unbalanced situation peacemaking takes time as well. In any case, during the opening phase the “Sicilian” defense can handle a defense that is restricted to “own half” of the chessboard, but in the middle phase such a restriction is an even more severe impediment. Relaxing this imposed restriction by supporters opens up additional possibilities for the defense as well as counter strikes. (Image: Shredder Chess App White opens with Kings Gambit and Black answers with Sicilian defense)
Art or Profession
In political science it is a long tradition to discuss, whether politics is an art or a profession. The idealist tradition, going back as far as Plato in ancient Greek history of ideas, puts the exercise of politics near the exercise of a divine art to do justice. Much later in the history of ideas Max Weber rather bluntly defined politics as a profession (original in German) that requires to master a set of competences.
Recent elections in Europe (EU, France, UK, Belgium) and around the globe (India, USA) in 2024 add interesting case studies to the old question. Is politics an art or a profession?
In modern politics the life course or life cycle of a politician consists of at least 2 phases: (1) the electoral campaign before and (2) the potential of governing or opposition. Each phase requires a different set of competences. In phase 1 it is important to propose a new or different ideal from the previous government. Charismatic presentation of an ideal set of policies is asked for. In phase 2 it is required of the politician to forge compromises, either within the own political party or beyond boundaries of political parties. Certainly, in multi-level governance systems like the European Union additional forms of coalition building across countries is required, intercultural competence or language skills are an advantage here.
The 2 phases of the life cycle of a politician require different sets of skills. Charisma as mentioned by Plato and Weber can get a politician into power and charismatic leadership can get you through a lot of coalition building. On the other hand, modern campaigning in repeated elections is a specialized competence that resembles marketing expertise as well as “reading of statistics” and in-depth analyses of shifting or stable preferences of electorates and to succinct conclusions on this basis. Running a political party or a parliamentary group is yet another leadership skill just like communication skills that, beyond many prejudices, can be learned.
In a nutshell. Politics is an art and a profession. The art consists in the variable combination of different sets of competences. Art requires competences just as professions can be turned into art. Welcome to the hybrid world of modern politics. (Image extract from MAD Paris, Picasso, Schiaparelli) 
1Person Nation
One single person can stand for a whole country. At least that’s what mass media have tried to make us believe. Whole countries or even empires have been associated with single personalities. Maybe for simplicity we start with Caesar, Cleopatra and the like. These personalities reach historic status through the literature that has reported on their achievements and fame. Mass media of today copy that strategy to create fame out of images. The American journal “Cineaste” has recently exemplified the making of an idol with the popular actor “Jean Gabin”, who happened to be the representative not only of French cinema, but the image of France across countries and even continents. Identification with an actor or the projected image of a person are common goals in politics as well. The actor Ronald Reagan became elected as president of the USA. Zelensky in Ukraine has followed a similar trajectory. The examples are manifold, but the underlying mechanism remain pretty similar. Before we had the concept of influencers, not influenza, popular spreading of messages is key. Only the technology changed. New ways to prepare a 1person nation have been added over time. Followers are the new political currency. Beware of signs “Follow Me”, even if it is the police asking you to do so. (Image: Deutsche Kinemathek Exhibition 2024)
Superstates reloaded
We live in an age of superstates. Such is the conclusion of Alasdair Roberts (2023). China(1.4), India (1.2), USA (0.33) and the EU (0.45) in billions of people jointly host about 40% of the world’s population (UN data). The Russian Federation with a population of 0.15, Japan 0.13 rank further behind, for example Pakistan 0.24 and Indonesia 0.27. Nothern, Eastern and Western Africa (0.25;0.46;0.42 respectively) have a huge unfulfilled potential that does not reach the impact it deserves.
These big and populated entities contrast with the increasing number of small states that have become new members of the United Nations. The institution of the United Nations, through its setup as an international rule based governance structure, has facilitated small states to seek voice and influence in the international arena of politics. The UN had 51 members in 1945 and has now a membership of 193 of all listed states of 237 on the globe. The increase in membership is due to many small states joining the UN after independence from big imperial powers. The international power relations, however, are only partially determined by population size but economic and military factors. The so-called superstates reach power through their power of direct and indirect “persuasion. Therefore the relationship between small and big states remains a delicate balance of power. Russia attempted to grab Ukraine and its population of 410 millions to remain in the league of superstates by population size and has suffered a hefty setback which further unsettles the disequilibrium of its male (68) and female (78) population with predominantly male soldiers’ lives lost.
Whereas we have seen the small states’ numbers on the rise in the last few decades, the expansion of superstates from Russia, China, India or Pakistan remain a threat to peace on the globe. The crystallization of a multi polar world order is on its way, but the stakes are high and unsettling in many respects. The fallout of war stalls the adaptation to climate change and increases the millions of starving people on the globe. the attempt to reach superstate status by already big states is probably the greatest danger we shall face for the coming years. Preparing for the instability of the world in transition to an increasing multi polar world order will dominate the political agenda of many intermediate powers as well as smaller states. (Image Globe Moscow 1994, displayed Stabi Berlin 2024)
Webpage Analytics
I do not collect data of detailed webpage analytics. Therefore, I thought I do not know anything and do not want to know anything about webpage visits of this webpage. However, the most basic information of how many times the webpage is visited per months is given by the hosting service of the webpage. The previous jump beyond 20.000 visits/month had the implication to move the security level of the webpage for me and all visitors to a higher level. Additional information of how many seconds an “internaut” is staying on the webpage tells, maybe a little bit about the interest in the content or image of a specific entry. Reaching 84.000 visitors/month was a surprise that asks for an explanation. Apparently, the most visited page is the blog entry on “geo-politics”. The longest time people stayed on a page or blog entry is a recent entry on “nutrition policy”.
Other statistics show that people who visited an entry on “find trust”, trusted in the webpage to click on many other entries or pages on “www.schoemann.org”.
I do not collect data or statistics on where visitors go after a visit. The hosting service, however, measures the so-called “jump-off” rate. This indicates the importance of the webpage as spring board to jump to other pages on the internet. It is usually = 1, just showing that you left somewhere. For some pages this reaches higher levels according to the number of links you offer on a blog entry, for example. It gives an indication whether you manage to lead on readers to explore the topic further. This is a usual evaluation question of lectures and seminars given at universities.
Last but not least, even without collecting any “real data” about visitors, it is part of the minimum information your browser transmits is the “operating system” used for access. Your smartphone provides the information on IOS, Android, Linux, or Windows versions used. These technical purposes remind me that there are still vast amounts of users of what we believe are outdated operating systems. Windows 7 and Windows 10 are still heavily in use across the globe. The hype around the latest operating system and smartphone is most likely only a phenomenon of the rich and wealthy in the rich parts of the western world. This reminds me to include images, which are small in data size to allow fast downloads in all parts of the world. We should embrace this as an important topic of geo-political relevance. 
Violence Potential
The book (editor Sabrow 2023) and the exhibition “Gewalt gegen Weimar. Zerreißproben der frühen Republik 1918-1923” need a broad European audience. The violence, which in the medium term destroyed the newly founded democracy of the Weimar Republic in Germany, is linked to the immediate aftermath of the 1st world war. The relatively calm abolition of monarchy in Germany did in no way prevent the eruption of violence within the new democracy. Extreme forces prepared in organized ways (Organisation Consul) and some in open public discourses the potential for the use of violence. Armaments left over from war equipped the Freikorps Movements and the potential to use the weapons was present at all times in the aftermath of WW1 in Germany. The contributions to the volume provide a detailed account of these 5 crucial years when democracy was able to defend itself against all odds. The strategies to take control of the country were built on a violent rhetoric which prepared the ground to put violent talk into action later on. This spiral of violence is hard to de-escalate once started. However, democracies have to foster ways to calm the spirits in periods of high potential violence. Elections as well as the campaigns before are the arms of democratic change. They should be used as such to pave the way to compromise.
Aussensicht Innensicht
Die Sicht vom Skulpturengarten der Neuen Nationalgalerie auf die laufende Ausstellung „Zerreissprobe…“ erlaubt einen tiefen historischen Einblick in die 1980er Jahre. Die Sammlung von Postern des Künstlers Klaus Staeck zeigen die bewegenden Themen der achtziger Jahre. Frauenrechte, Umweltschutz, Sicherheit sowie Medienwirtschaft. 40 Jahre später beschäftigen uns weiterhin, Lösungen für die plakatierten Themen zu finden. Images können Themen so zuspitzen, dass Anklagen daraus werden. Texte sind im Vergleich zu der Eindrücklichkeit der Bilder ein vergleichsweise stumpfes Schwert. Es ist aber gerade die Verbindung von Bild und Text, die Eindrücke verstärkt. „Meme“ Creators sind ein standard tool das die Kommerzialisierung und die Promotion weiter befördert haben. Kunstformen hatten diesen Trend bereits vorweggenommen.
Democracy Enemies
Discussions in the social sciences about the fate of democracy have a long tradition. With the results of participation rates in elections for the European Parliament in 2024 weeks need to take up the challenge again. The book by Bryn Rosenfeld “The Autocratic Middle Class …” stated already in 2020 that autocratic regimes tend tp buy off democratic intentions through providing lots of jobs in the public sector which promise stable living standards and pensions to regime conformity. If the public sector crowds out private sector jobs this creates a tendency to lock in the current political system of autocracy. The analysis, however, lacks the explanation of the micro level sociological mechanism that made the “color revolutions” plausible in many parts of the world. Even the recent success of a government change in Poland in favor of pro European Donald Tusk would have been impossible if the buying of the middle class through public sector jobs is the overriding mechanism to avoid democracy to win the upper hand. Withholding funds to make public sector expansion more difficult or risky in for the longer term stability of an autocratic regime might do the trick. Autocrats have many enemies not only externally. The enemies from inside the society have multiple options for opposition as well. The other perspective that there are many enemies of democracy to be found within the public sector is another known challenge to democracy. Low turnout in Elections is a warning signal that we have to take very seriously and continue to act upon. (Image: Neue Nationalgalerie Berlin 2024 Extreme tension, explation on Ewa Partum)
Broken Promises
In a library catalogue, the entry of « broken promises « returns more than 3000 times that the title has been used. « Promises kept » is almost as popular. A rapid inspection of titles reveals that the former titles suggest more factual analyses, whereas the latter is frequently used in the form of an imperative in combination with “should be kept”. The book by Fritz Bartel “The Triumph of Boken Promises …” (2022) demonstrates the importance of the concept of broken promises in the social sciences. The rivalry between socialism, capitalism and the rise of neoliberalism is strongly influenced by the way they handle the breaking of promises made to their respective societies. The promises of increasing wealth and wellbeing have been part of all political regimes. To keep these promises is a completely different story. Especially since the first and second oil crises and many other kinds of crises, it has become much harder to keep these promises. Working hours, retirement ages or minimum wages are all at risk to no longer live up to the promises made in earlier periods. This has put welfare states under pressure that millions of voters perceive politics as a “game” of broken promises. Socialist political regimes like Russia are ready to use physical violence to shut up people that remind leaders of these broken promises. In democracies the ballot box is often used to sanction governments that do not live up to expectations of previous promises. A lot is about public infrastructure which is failing people. Migration, education, social and labor reforms are on top of the political agenda if it comes down to broken promises. The elections of the European Parliament gave many a chance to express their discontent about various broken promises. Maybe democracy is better in providing forms of letting off steam early and protracted protests rather than the Russian way to suppress any critical analysis, let alone opposition movements. Just like the move from industrial production to services as production models, with AI we are likely to see similar problems and probably also broken promises. The challenge is huge and promises should be made with an eye of what promises could be kept.
European Voters
Elections of the European Parliament are more about a learning and participation experience than about crucial political influence. This seems to be the lesson learned from the relatively low voter turnout in many countries in 2024-6. Belgium reached by far the highest percentage (90%) of participants, but it had federal and regional elections at the same time. Croatian voters could not be bothered with these elections with just 21% of turnout. Many countries hovered around the 50% participation mark like France, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Sweden. Germany reached almost 65% which is relatively high, but due to its population size, it sends the most MEPs to Brussels later on. The most surprising result is the extremely low turnout in the former Eastern, Southern Eastern and Baltic states of the European Union. Apparently, the voters in these countries care little about their political option to vote for MEPs. This should worry all other parts of Europe profoundly as we invest billions in infrastructure and social cohesion to keep the European Union an open house for all East and West, South and North. The challenges for the next 5 years are huge. The expectations are high, but the commitment to democratic procedures like voting and decisions through the ballot box are not to be taken for granted throughout Europe. (Image European Parliament 2024-6-11)
Science Politics
We tend to believe that science is independent of politics. Even if the individual scientist does research and studies free of immediate political influences, there are many ways in which politics has an impact on science. Sociologists refer to Max Weber as a prominent figure in the “Werturteilsstreit” that claimed the need for science to be conducted beyond political interference. Karl Popper is another reference in this respect who proposed the positive science approach which starts from theory, hypotheses and testing in the sense of identifying false statements, hypotheses and underlying theories. Modern science is also linked to publications of results. This has become an industry of its own and it is sometimes quite surprising to see the lengthy delays that scientific results get published. One example, Jackie G. Schneider and Julia Macdonald (2024) had to wait 3 years until their paper finally appeared in print in a scientific journal. This paper was received by the Journal in February 2021 and published only in 2024 in the 2nd issue of the journal but online in January 2023! Reports in Nature on difficulties of Indian, African and Chinese scientists to get their work done and published are alarming as well. Further regionalization and departmentalization work against the fundamental principles of independent science and scientists. It is a big issue of international cooperation as well.
Comparative Advantage
In economics all students go through the calculus of comparative advantage. People, regions or whole countries tend to apply comparative advantage to their production systems and ensuing internal or external trade. The basic rationale developed by David Ricardo has not changed that much over 200 years. The fields of application, however, are continuously expanded. Lindsay and Gartzke (2020) have applied the comparative advantage rationale to military strategy. The paper quotes 26 times Clausewitz and demonstrates the links of strategy to the basic economic and social rationale of comparative advantage. It is the politics of production that even the presence of trade may override the rationale of comparative advantage to favour local production of “operational domains” or military equipment.
In Russia’s aggression and war against Ukraine own production and trading of weapons has returned to the forefront of the concerns. In addition to the production of ammunition, the provision of drones has dominated the international arms trade related to the Russian aggression. Resources and time for production are additional factors that have an impact on availability of weapons at the right time at the right place and with the sufficiently trained persons to operate them.
The strategies that cross domains or combine domains seem the most promising. The careful analysis of your own comparative advantages or disadvantages needs to be the basis of any strategic decisions. This has been known for 2 centuries at least and is still valid in many fields of application. Additional considerations for “home production” might add to the complexity of the issue. Sustainability has also found its way into the field of comparative advantage at last. This may alter the analysis of comparative advantage of operational domains as well. Lots of unresolved puzzles still around. It will need years to sort this out despite the urgency of the Russian aggression on Ukraine.(Image: AI Copilot.2024-4-30 2 political leaders deal weapons. One has a comparative advantage in ships. The other one has a comparative advantage in aircrafts. they deal together)
AI Disruption
Many scientists started to question the disruptive potential of AI in, for example, the military’s domain. The Journal of Strategic Studies featured 3 papers on AI and autonomous systems more generally. The major argument by Anthony King is the reliance of autonomous systems on other systems mainly human operators even in the background to get these systems off the ground and maybe back again. Not only logistic support but also satellite communication is needed to guide and protect the operations. In quoting Clausewitz, Anthony King stated that war is a “collision of two living forces”. Strategy and counter-strategy will co-evolve as will attack and defence.
Jackie G. Schneider and Julia Macdonald (2024) advocate the use of autonomous and unmanned systems for their cost effectiveness. Economic costs as well as political costs are lower for these new strategic weapons. Mass fire power from swarms of drones is much cheaper than nuclear warheads and the home electorate is assumed to be more willing to accept and support limited and more precisely targeted unmanned missions. The disruption potential of AI is huge but it is most likely an addition to the arsenals than replacing them. (Image 2 swarms of drones fly in the air above tanks, created by AI – copilot-designer 2024-4-29).
Mehr vom Meer
Wir sollten uns mehr um das Meer kümmern. Länder ohne Küsten finden meistens wenig Gründe, warum sie sich um das Meer bemühen sollten. Es ist doch so weit weg. Weit gefehlt. Erderwärmung erhöht die Meerestemperaturen und das wiederum beeinflusst massgeblich die Regenfälle im Inneren der Kontinente. Wir sitzen buchstäblich alle zusammen in einem Boot. Historisch betrachtet war das Meer mindestens seit der Antike Teil des machtpolitischen Kalküls der Beherrschung der Welt und der sie Bewohnenden. Wirtschaftliche Interessen waren ebenfalls Bestandteil der Erkundung und Eroberung des Meeresraums. Die Hansestädte in Europa bieten dazu noch heute gute Beispiele. Nach dem Sklavenhandel sind heute die Überseekabel und Rohstoffe des Meeres die begehrten Schätze des Meeres. Der Artenreichtum der Tiefsee wird erst seit kurzer Zeit intensiver erforscht. Externalisieren von Kosten des Umweltschutzes zu Lasten unserer Meere hat noch wenig Berücksichtigung in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft gefunden. Tourismus- und Migrationsströme zum Meer, auf dem Meer und über das Meer stellen uns vor große Herausforderungen. Wir werden sicherlich mehr über das Meer reden müssen, und das ist keine Mär. Image aus „Europa und das Meer“ (DHM).
Russian Angst
The title of a book “Russian Angst” by Thomas Franke summarizes the state of Russian society under Putin. It dates back to 2017, but the underlying process of Angst in the Russian society is increasing rather than diminishing due to the already 2 years long intensive hot war of Russia against Ukraine. The Russian Angst is a fear of a continued roll back of its authoritarian rule in Eastern parts of the world and its internal threat that its own people will claim more rights like freedom of speech, freedom of the press and effective democratic voting rights. In a dictatorship the “Angst” is a pervasive phenomenon which creeps into all spheres of live. Franke and Dornblüth (2023) describe the toxic society in Russia. Intoxication and torture of opponents are used by the Putin regime as a threat to suppress critical voices in Russia. Through this a climate of “Angst” is spread so that any internal opposition has to face very high risks to utter any discontent. The experience of a barbarian, totalitarian regime is well known. The threat to life and the presence of intimidation to any disobedient behaviour are strictly persecuted. Nevertheless, the need to think beyond the Putin regime is well under way. The more external and internal, real or imagined threats are countered with brutal force, the more the regime reveals its true kind of governance by force. This invites and leads to the strengthening of counter forces both internally and externally. It seems like box fight in the before last round of a very vulnerable, weakened and isolated boxer. Not many will bet on the likely loser and more countries who previously supported Putin will stop their erroneous policy. Russian Angst and loneliness will further increase. 
Need of War
It seems like a horrific idea to talk about the need of war. We might have deemed it outdated to read about the terrible love of war or about the strategy of war. However, the time of war is back in Europe and Eastern Europe feels the real threat and Ukraine the bombs hailing from Russia. Why does Putin love war? The love of war is largely driven by domestic issues. Staying in power for unliked authoritarian leaders is easiest if they indulge in external conflicts. Dictators love war because it makes it easier for them to sustain leadership through brutal force within the country due to a proclaimed external threat or even outright engagement in war. Democratically elected leaders know that they will leave office eventually in a peaceful way (exceptions like Trump are rare). Dictators use any force or terror necessary to stay in power. The love of war is part of this.
Hence, the need of war goes without questioning, if a country in decline or at risk of decline tries to uphold an inefficient, belligerent regime. Beyond rational reasons, such regimes will abuse ideation about national pride, the national interest and anything pertaining to some supposed myths of nationhood to justify its need of war. The dictators have all failed eventually as resistance against this need of useless war is found out by enemies either within or externally. But thousands or millions of victims will suffer. The pressure against the need of war has to rise internally from opposition as well as from alliances of democracies that do not need war to motivate their people to achieve the best they are able to deliver.
Therefore, the defence of democratic rule is, at the same time, a fight against the need of war by some doomed regimes. After winning the war comes the difficult task of winning peace. This means to create a state of affairs and a state of mind that can do without the need of war. If the external threat diminishes the internal threats might rise and have to be contained as well. Lots of challenges, even for mature democracies. (Image: Berlin 2022-10)
Corruption Watch
There is a persistent need to watch carefully whether corruption is involved in political as well as economic deals. Transparency Watch is doing a great job in reporting on corruption cases. In democracy we can talk openly about corruption but in authoritarian regimes it is life-threatening for yourself to talk and report on corruption. The case in Europe around the network of Eva Kaili continues to make headlines due to the ruthless abuse of rules the European Parliament. (Link to Le Soir, image below, 2024) The close monitoring of activities and lobbying of powerful industrial interests targeted on parliamentary candidates and officials will continue to be essential for the survival of democracy. The organization „Abgeordnetenwatch.de“ is doing just this. Investigative journalism needs to complement the work of NGOs in this field. Thanks to these efforts it has become much harder to cover up corruption. Only if the risk to be found out is a credible threat corruption can be contained. Let us watch out carefully and probably with the assistance of AI to uncover early any attempts of corruption.
