economics – Schoemann

03/12/202502/12/2025

Sustainability in computing

As the huge size of data centres become visible for everybody we begin to question the sustainability of computing infrastructures as well. The need for energy and water resources (for cooling) grow in line with the growth of data centers, the whole issue of input of resources and global trade has to be re-assessed. Based on European trade data, we know that computer software is heavily imported from the US, whereas we import the hardware to run the software in even higher shares from China. In view of the AI boom, this risks to worsen the European trade balance in the coming years. European digital sovereignty suffers as well, if we do not act upon it (compare Figure 8 in Eurostat report).
An easy fix is the shift to more computing-efficient software, which does not need or rely on more processor and memory imports from China for the hardware and imports of services like operating systems or office software from the US.
Just changing to Linux and OpenOffice lets you keep your hardware for several more years. Sustainability in computing isn’t hard to do. It is just a matter of determination. We can do it, if we really want to do it. The more rare earths become rare and more expensive, the larger the amount of people and businesses, who shall think twice about this.
European Digital sovereignty can work as a driver of sustainability in computing as well.

30/11/202502/12/2025

Bulimia Capitalism

Each time a wave and speculative bubble in the economy is building up or even bursting there are thousands of people who become drawn into chaos. Let us quickly review: Oil bubbles in the 70s, financial crisis and subprime lending in housing markets, 1st internet bubble and the year 2000 bugs, AI excesses in 2025. These boom and bust cycles resemble the medical and psychological patterns of a bulimia nervosa. The overly optimistic outlook for AI companies’ future profits and shifts in the size of office space needed for companies announce bulimic behavior when at the same time vomiting by the same companies occurs with regard to investments in nuclear energy plants even in the sites like Fukushima in Japan or Three Mile Island in the USA. Bulimia Capitalism seems to be eating its own children. The upcoming year 2026 will be full of revelations in this respect. (Image: collection of about a hundred barbies exposed on a flea market in Brussels on 5 levels).

29/11/202528/11/2025

Socio-technological obsolescence

The standard literature or AI-sytems will give you a definition of on technological obsolescence, which specifies that obsolescence does not mean that a device is broken, but that it is outdated. In computers this might be due to hardware no longer supporting newer, more resource demanding software, or newer software insisting on the use of other hardware. The seemingly rapid innovation cycles in smartphones, cars or robots might justify such technological obsolescence, but the real advances like shifts from 3G to 4G to the newer 5G mobile frequency standards have taken place rather slowly due to provider coverage of sufficiently large, particularly rural areas.
Therefore, the technological obsolescence has to be enlarged as a concept to socio-technological obsolescence as the societal, legal and economic boundaries of technological innovations have to be taken into account as well. Provisions for health concerns or CO2 saving circularity, i.e. reuse of resources have to be taken into account as part of a precautionary principle.
Computer screens have asked us to move from square designs to wide screens (watch videos) to smartphones’ standards of long formats. My 20 years old square screen has been doing a reasonable job throughout these periods, though not for serious games.
The socio-technological obsolescence relies on a “socio-technical prestige score” of products, like for luxury brands in other industries, where fashions drive obsolescence more than technology.
(Image: Robotic arm made by Kuka writes on paper sheet at Frankfurt book fair 2017)

25/11/202525/11/2025

Robotics Hype 2026

Towards the end of 2025, it is common practice to look back on the last 12 months to summarize a year and to contribute to the “collective memory” of the year. From a “society and technology” perspective we shall not be surprised if such summaries will be full of images and praise of AI and robotics. However, large parts of the innovations that shall be declared to have marked 2025 were already around 10 years ago. It is just the timing for the new momentum and the creation of a hype around these technologies that is really remarkable (compare WSJ 2025-11-24 p 1-2 by Konrad Putzier).
It is true, playing around with robotics was reserved to universities, research institutes and some big players in industry. The public and financial markets showed little interest in these “nerdy” fields of applications. Although we were hardly able to compete with our chess computers, Watson solving math problems for us including the steps for us to follow. Video, image and textual support was provided by specialized applications already at high levels and in multilingual versions. In 2025 these techniques have enhanced with machine learning and neural network programming reaching higher speed and being able to use ever larger data sets as input.
But there are areas where the hype is coming to an end. How about all the artificial reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) applications? Many have seized to exist. Have you visited or invested in “Second Life” platforms? Opened a shop in the VR-world? Bitcoins have lost 7% of their value between 1.1.2025 and 24.11.2025 and they suffer still from high volatility rather than an uninterrupted rise.
War has fuelled the rise of shares in 2025 and “dual-use” technology benefits as well. AI has been driven by, and drives both trends.
In sum, it is much less the technological innovations in 2025 that are astonishing, but the political economy of how to orchestrate a sensational hype around the technologies.
(Image Hannover Industry Fair 2016-3-14).

08/11/202507/11/2025

Telework Challenge

There is a seminal trend that many employees prefer to have a choice to work on the premises of the employer or remote from home. This flexibility has become a major element of collective bargaining on work and time in larger companies in order to clarify rights and obligations.
In France it is about 1 in 5 of employees who do telework one day per month (1 in 6 in Nouvelle Aquitaine). The higher up in the hierarchy a person is, the more likely s/he is to do telework. Higher levels of educational attainment and seniority in a company also improve the access to and use of telework. There are still many employees who would like to do telework in their jobs, which technically could be done remotely, but who cannot do it (1 in 3). Most of those are denied the possibility by their employers.
Data from a survey in Germany from 2014 showed that before Covid-19 men were worked more often remotely than did women (Lott & Abendroth, 2019). The latest figures from France 2024 show that women have overtaken men as remote workers (Askenazy et al. 2025). As working from home has become more a part of the “standard employment relationship” today, the fears of loosing out on career opportunities due working from home seems to play less of a role nowadays, probably for both gender. Compared to 2014 the costs of equipment and availability and ease of installation of fast internet have become more affordable and might push the spread of telework even further.
The data from France show a strong positive correlation of remote work and commuting distance to work. Hence, long commuting distances “drive” more people into telework, which makes a lot of ecological sense, too.

27/10/202524/10/2025

All electric again

The “all electric society” has been identified by Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber (2025 p.48) as one of the underlying driving forces of “The real China Model”. Despite the heavy reliance and pollution caused by China’s use of coal, the large share of electricity (30%) of energy use is unmatched by the rest of the world except Japan. Investment in electricity grids and innovative ways of mobility around electricity will allow China to buzz rather than steam ahead. Solar cells, batteries for electricity storage and innovative ways of distribution of electricity through AI enhanced “learning” devices will widen the gap between China and other countries that suffer from inefficient path dependency.
Taking the advent of the “All electric society” seriously will free resources through the focus on future-proof technologies. We should not be afraid of the sparks of a short-circuited “All electric society”, the environmental challenges ahead for all of us, particularly China, ask to shift to high voltage solutions urgently.

03/10/202502/10/2025

Political Economy 2025

As the global markets have moved from an international economic system based on competition to a world of protectionism based on arbitrary tariffs and restrictions, it feels strange to spot banners in Brussels in 2025-10 entitled “Competitive Europe Summit”. Participants at the conference appear to be “barking up the wrong tree”. In industries, and even more so in most services, access to markets is the necessary condition to embark on competition. No access, no competition. Tariffs or taxes are created to stifle competition.
All this has multiple reasons. One reason is to create an equal playing field among countries. Previously, we thought exchange rates of currencies and eventually purchasing power parities would shift following changes in competitiveness. This mainstream economic thinking has been disrupted through Putin’s war on Ukraine territory. The MAGA political economy narrative has impacted the competition between countries as well, (1) with its rhetoric and (2) back and forth changes in tariffs. Competition with countries which do not respect basic principles of fairness in competition can no longer be confronted with a mantra of a “competitive Europe”.
A more unified Europe could deal with the “politico-economic” fact that the global economy is much less concerned with the idea of competitiveness than in the last few decades of the last millennium (70s, 80s, 90s). Powerplay between nations maybe regarded as a kind of competition for dominance, but a sole focus on economic competition is grossly misleading nowadays after 3 years of the Russian aggression, at least with a focus on the short and middle distance run.

24/09/202523/09/2025

Marc Aurel Book 11

Throughout the Meditations, Marc Aurel concerns himself with the idea and importance of the common good. Based on his experience as Consul and Roman Emperor, the common good is of primary concern. At least in his thinking and writing these concerns play a very prominent role just like the “social“. In order to ensure his own successor, as described by Katherine Kennedy (2020 through www.classicalwisdom.com) he was only the 2^nd Roman Emperor to appoint a biological heir as his successor, which met a lot of criticism already at that time. Nevertheless, in his philosophical thinking and leadership guidelines he cherished the common good above all. “Have I done something for the common good? Then I too have benefited. Have this thought always ready to hand: and no stopping.” (Book 11 paragraph 4, Penguin Classics edition). This is in contrast to the predominant utilitarian thoughts many centuries later where the pursuit of your own benefit will further the benefit for society. The reversal of the logical sequence in later thoughts is particularly remarkable as well. The process of individualisation seems to be another additional factor in the lack of concern for the common good in the 21^st century. Raising the awareness to further the common good is a continued challenged in most societies.

07/09/202508/09/2025

Former Crypto currency

The rationale behind a Crypto currency is quite an ancient idea. In the absence of a central bank or in addition to it, people may choose to establish their own currency or currencies. The central idea is to secure assets (currently and in the future) as well as to enable an exchange between a community of people. The Museum of the National Bank of Belgium (image below) has a “Yap stone” on display which originates from the Pacific Yap Islands. Even very heavy and big stones served as wealth storage. The idealistic value of a particular stone conveyed additional value. In the true value of the word these people were banking on stone money in a way not to distant from what Crypto currency embodies today.

06/09/202503/09/2025

AI in Central Banks

Yes of course, Central Banks will use AI, and some do so already (Kazinnik and Brynjolfsson, 2025). Beyond the standard application of AI by its employees, there are many potentials to use AI to analyse and publish data at a faster rate or in order to detect financial crimes. Similarly, data collection based on webpage harvesting might yield new indicators of inflation, expenditure for environmental risks (heat waves, flooding etc.) earlier and in addition to the normal set of indicators. Hence, Central banks might be better and faster in forecasting inflationary tendencies using more AI tools in their daily routines. Of course, it is difficult to predict a disruptive tariffs policy of a major economic player in the world economy, but the calculation of more, even hallucinatory scenarios become more feasible. It is feasible to weigh overall risks of different scenarios to the economy.
(Image: Celtic coins, Museum of the Belgian National Bank)

05/09/202503/09/2025

AI earnings effects

In the first few years of wider adoption of AI in an economy, there is the expectation that this might lead to substantial productivity gains for enterprises which use it as well as for employees who are early adopters of the relatively new technology. The study by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025) showed that so far there are no significant earnings effects for employees. Based on millions of recent payroll data from US companies productivity gains have not trickled through to the paycheck in terms of monthly salaries. Participation of staff in a company’s overall turnover or profit might change this as time evolves. For civil servants the adoption of AI might mean increases in cases dealt with as some tasks can be executes faster than before with the use of AI.
The evidence points to employment effects of AI rather than earnings effects so far. A hypothesis is yet unresolved: senior employees using AI might employ fewer junior workers at entry positions, if these “hallucinating” young professionals can be replaced by hallucinating AI. In science the hallucination has sometimes lead to disruptive new approaches and findings. It is a tough choice to pick the young entrants with high productivity potential and eventually high remuneration for this in terms of labor earnings.

04/09/202503/09/2025

AI employment effects

The first robust empirical evidence about employment effects of AI in the USA has been published by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025). A previous paper by Wang and Wang (2025) highlighted the comparative advantage of persons who use AI in their work compared to others and the authors coined the term “learning by using technology”. The prediction of the model was that there might be job losses of more than 20% in the long run and half of this already in the first 5 years of the introduction of the technology. The Stanford economists have estimated with real world data these effects in the USA and find quite surprisingly that the negative employment effects of AI have the strongest impact on young labor market entrants with few years of labor market experience. Middle-aged and more senior employees seem to benefit from “tacit knowledge” about the work, which is more difficult to replace with AI, at least for the time being of the early days of AI. This evidence is based on recent payroll data from the largest payroll processing firm “ADP” in the USA which has firms overrepresented from the manufacturing and services industries as reported in another paper (Firm size maybe another source of bias). However, the effect that youth 22-25 years of age suffered the most calls into question the common belief that older workers are more likely to suffer the consequences as during in the rise of the digital economy around the year 2000. (AI Image created with Canva)

03/09/202503/09/2025

Vacation or Workation

Vacation or Workation, that is the question. Remote work and outsourcing of work have created the opportunity for more people to work from distant places. Logging into the firm’s or the administration’s secured intranet enabled to work from where you prefer to work rather than on the premises of the firm. After the technological shift to enable secure remote work, the acceptability of remote work is a societal issue. Whereas bosses worked or had to work while on travel for many decades, the same has become feasible due to reduced costs for many other employees as well. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced another shift in the need to accept and advance remote work as well. Taken together the option of a “workation” instead of a vacation became equally more feasible. The borderline between remote work, “workation” and vacation has become more and more blurred. It remains to be seen, whether these options enhance an outsourcing trend by firms or whether more “back-sourcing” or “in-sourcing” will be the consequence.
Employers with their associations and employees with their trade union representatives have a need to include such topics in their bargaining agenda in addition to pay, health and safety, as well as working time adaptations.
(Image created with Canva 2025-9)

02/09/202503/09/2025

Vacation money

The budget for a vacation, depending on your destination, is subject to exchange rate adjustments. If there are several months between planning and traveling the exchange rate like between the US $ and the Euro € has fluctuated recently by 10% in favor of the €uro. Nice for those receiving salaries in € and who spend their vacation in a region using the US $ as main payment currency. International tourists frequently calculate in $ and therefore might find Europe a bit more expensive than before the return of Donald Trump in the USA.
However, for all those who live in the Member States of the Euro-area and take their vacation there as well, they no longer think in exchange rate risks to their vacation budget. Additionally, there are almost no risks to be subject to fake money transactions like in unfamiliar currencies.
In the Euro area we can use for example backlight to make sure a 50€ bank note is a real one. Happy vacation!

13/08/202512/08/2025

Home for dog

The places where some dogs live can be rather big. But even tiny dogs may enjoy a luxury home like their owners. This was certainly the case for the dog’s niche in a Paris home, a few years before the French revolution (1785). The exhibit is a testimony of the tough inequality of the late 18th century in Paris, where some enjoyed far reaching luxury and large parts of the population were forced to live in poverty within Paris or the suburbs with little access to basic sanitary facilities. The discrepancy between the luxurious homes of pets and the average person might serve as an indicator for income and health inequality. The Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet has a great stock of artifacts that can speak to the issue. Image: Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet dog niche 1785).

24/07/202523/07/2025

Work time reduction

One of the major elements of social progress in the 20th century consisted in the reduction of work time. Reductions from 48 hours per week in the first half of the century were largely reduced to 40 hours per week or less in some industries with strong trade union representation. State regulations also pushed in this direction with positive implications for physical and mental health as well as wellbeing. Advances in longevity of employees may be attributable to this social progress agenda of the 20th century. In the 21st century we witness a new thrust of enterprises and employees striving to implement a 4 day work schedule by at the same time organizing a further reduction of work hours. The scientific evidence which is based on pre- and post trial assessments of workers satisfaction shows rather positive results (Fan, Schor, Kelly, Gu 2025). More studies are due to accompany this potential of further health and wellbeing effects of reduced work time and the reorganization of work time in enterprises.

19/07/202518/07/2025

Geo-politics of Electricity

Think of a society only based on electric energy. In the 21st century this energy stems from photovoltaic cells, wind and water turbines as well as geothermal energy sources. Each region of the globe and even within a country has its own kind of access to electric power specifically originating in the geographic and geologic context. This means we are returning to a phase in which “natural monopolies” of power generation have their comeback. Rather than nation wide power monopolies, the regional specificity becomes important again. Of course, this raises a lot of geopolitical issues and maybe tensions. Local economies will develop their own electricity provision. Larger and smaller companies can reorganize their power provision themselves. Energy monopolies become outdated if the infrastructure and legal frameworks are adapted to the potential of the “All electric society” conditional on new forms of “power” sharing. Electric and political power sharing will be key in the geo-politics of electricity.

18/07/202517/07/2025

Electrifying Jobs

The transition to the “all electric society” necessitates to prepare the labor force for the upcoming challenge. The knowledge about electricity and electric appliances constitutes the basics of the knowledge base of the future. This goes far beyond the basics of physics and electrical engineering. There many processes like sharing of electric infrastructure in households, cities, in and beyond countries that have to be delt with. Investment calculations and legal issues to address the different risks involved are another area to cover in the process to prepare society for the “all electric society”.
However, the skills of professions with more direct links to the fossil fuel based technologies have a role in the phasing out of the heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Reverse engineering of such engines and heating will need people still knowledgeable of the past, when younger generations set their focus primarily on professions with links to electricity. Even using a solar powered heat pump in a home requires pipes to the existing network of radiators, for example. This will most likely be a gradual shift of the job structure and occupational requirements over at least a decade, but the shift has started already. Some might argue we need a well functioning “transitional labour market”, labour market policies and social security system for this to happen smoothly.

15/07/202514/07/2025

All electric now

The shift over to the “All electric society” is easiest in sunny states like California in the USA, Africa or Southern Europe. For other regions of the globe not only the production of energy through the sun is a bit less abundant, but the storage of the sun’s energy production for deferred use is the next challenge. Countries of the globe near the equator have to balance 12 hours daylight with 12 hours night, countries far from the equator have to balance additionally more long-term between short winter days and long summer light.
Different energy storage solutions have to be envisaged.
On a daily basis or even weekly basis, battery energy storage systems (BESS) can do the trick. These systems become more costly for high capacity, longer duration storage. Battery size and price quickly become an issue. The number of electric vehicles (EVs) that have this more intelligent BESS is rising. This makes it possible to eventually use this storage capacity, if your car is sitting around your home or office for most of the time anyway. To make the “all electric society” function 24 hours, energy storage has to be planned at the same time as production and consumption patterns. The all electric prosumer will be the de-central “pro-store-sumer” in the 21^st century.

14/07/202511/07/2025

Work and Time

The link between work and time has been evolving as a major element of social progress over centuries. In what younger generations seem to take for granted, <40 hours week, paid time off-work. 4-5 days per week to name only the major ones, has been the result of huge struggles and hustles driven by employees and their trade unions to achieve such milestones. The current debate to get employees back into offices and/or to work longer hours again, is also in the end a debate about work and time. The advantage of working from home consists among other factors in saving a lot of valuable time and stress from commute to work. This unaccounted time to go to work has become a major health hazard even in an apparently comfortable company subsidized car or any other means of transportation. The traffic jams of so-called rush hours, when in fact everybody is slowed down, are a serious health hazard usually ignored by employers. However, these hours are a major part of the work-life-time balance of employees. In many negotiations and collective bargaining about working time this is the big elephant in the room rarely addressed.

13/07/202511/07/2025

Green trade flows

The statistics on trade flows reported by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs have a comprehensive data base in the background. The descriptive inspection of the raw data on trade flows comprising solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles shows a stark imbalance of how future-proof the trade between countries is. The New York Times (David Gelles et al. 2025-6-30) has put this information into an impressive graphical design to show the magnitude of the imbalance of how China trades in green products with the world and how the USA is losing out on future-proof low carbon emission trade. Despite the fact that China is still heavily emitting CO₂ today due to burning coal for electrical power, the investments at home and trade with the world is moving into the opposite direction. We have seen many of these industries at risk in Europe, like solar panel production, batteries and increasingly electric vehicles, without the western countries getting organized to address crucial business and economic challenges. Falling behind in these industries and trade will shift global balances in the near future. Renovation through innovation is more promising than holding on for another decade to inefficient and more polluting energy sources. Repairs of homes and buildings have long lasting effects, which we can, nevertheless, change today.

12/07/202511/07/2025

Ultimate Step

Reports in the New York Times, The Guardian and Le Monde in recent weeks have brought to our attention that there are shocking ultimate steps undertaken by several employees of public services. In the case of the British post office a decade long inquiry has uncovered that 13 suicides of employees occurred after they had falsely been accused of fraud. A long time ago in France Telecom a series of suicides was also attributed to a harsh personnel policy. The Office of Public Finances (DGFiP) is confronted with a series of suicides in 20025 of 12 employees who apparently made the ultimate step to put an end to their life. Not all is to be blamed on the enterprises or public services concerned, however, they failed or omitted attempts to prevent the ultimate steps. Initiatives like peer listeners as anonymous contact points or access to psychological counseling are necessary parts of a responsible human resource practice, even if it might not be a sufficient condition to avoid the ultimate step in some instances. In many cases employees go far beyond their mental capacities in terms of commitment to their work, they should not be left alone in case of severe consequences.
Burn-out, for example, needs to be tackled as part of the responsibility of enterprises and public services alike. It is highly unfair to put the costs of psychological consequences on the shoulders of families and the state. Investigations into toxic leadership styles and the current revival of “workaholic” work ethos will have serious negative consequences for families and society as whole again.

10/07/202509/07/2025

Learning by using

Is learning by using different from learning by doing? In an economic model to test the employment/unemployment impact of AI in the USA, Wang & Wong (2025) suggest an important impact of employees’ productivity due to learning by using AI. In terms of the traditional language of economics the employees who use AI in their work shall have comparative advantage to those who don’t.
In a model of job search in the economy there is the additional possibility, similarly to robots previously, that certain tasks maybe influenced by the, more or less, plausible threat of an employer to replace the employee by training an AI system to perform the tasks. The credibility and acceptability of such threats are likely to impact wage claims and unemployment risks. All these effects do not happen instantaneously, but evolve over time with varying speed. Hence, calculations of effects have high error margins. The resulting model yields oscillations of “labor productivity, wages and unemployment with multiple steady states in the long run”.
Learning by using seems to be a good description of what occurs at the micro level (the employee) and at the macro level of an economic sector or the economy as a whole. Society may guide the use cases of AI just as much as the business case to use AI, for example in the creative industries as infringements of copyrights may occur on a massive scale. However, learning by using is not free of risks to society at large. Just like allowing people to use automotive vehicles has lead and still leads to thousands of deaths annually, learning by using produces external costs. Overall, this is another case for a benefit/cost analysis for businesses, the economy and society.

09/07/202508/07/2025

Pepper and Nao

We have seen many persons that became somehow emotionally touched when addressed by Pepper or Nao. These 2 versions of a humanoid robot have served for thousands of persons as the first welcoming moving information desk. I have been guided through museums (DTM, Berlin) and exhibitions by this robot guide with a friendly outlook. Beyond those experiences there is a lesson in industrial policy to be learned from this innovative French humanoid robot. The start-up enterprise was founded as early as 2005. With a substantial funding of ½ billion € from Softbank the enterprise could develop robots for the fields of personal companionship, education, restaurant services or personal care for the elderly.
We have seen the robots at international fairs in several countries, but the prohibitive costs have limited the rapid spread of the robots to broader applications. Subsequently, the decline of the enterprise, or not reaching financial targets fast enough, caused the loss of financial support for the enterprise. In 2025, Aldebaran filed for bankruptcy and the patents will be sold to the best offers. The employees received generous packages of departure and will most likely find rapidly jobs in other robotics, IT or AI related fields.
The loss is probably greatest for the persons who were serviced by Pepper or Nao in elderly homes or the Swiss hospitals, as spare parts or updates will no longer be available. The humanoid robot story is yet another case where the social, economic and financial context of technology is overriding the technological innovation process.

01/07/202530/06/2025

Social promise

In the beginning and middle of the 2020s the social promise to younger generations has been broken. The latest figures from the USA reveal that 2 million students (WSJ 2025-6-25 A3) who have financed their studies and potential social mobility by taking out a substantial loan are very likely to default on their credits. This observation was less a surprise to labor market analysts as the stalling of student hiring in many countries has happened for several years now. The more surprising finding is that the Wall Street Journal 2025-6-25 has been reporting on this. Banks or universities who are highly exposed to this kind of risk will themselves become downgraded for their credit rating. Higher interests for universities means higher fees and higher student loans eventually. The social promise to reach higher status and earnings through higher education as the social promise of the meritocratic society becomes an illusion. Investors in student housing might also find the sector less juicy for them. Students and their parents were taken hostage by an excessive commercialization and commodification od education. Lifelong learning is a still a promising route to revitalize the social promise.

19/06/202518/06/2025

Fertility Fecundity

The scientific debate around changes in fertility has focused on social, economic and cultural factors to explain the drop in total fertility rates in OECD countries. The baby boom years of the 1950s and early 1960s had come to an end following the spread of new forms of birth control like contraception from the late 1960s onwards. The trend is very obvious and yet, the explanations of the trend might lack a more profound analysis of fecundity in addition to the socio-economic explanations. Shakkebaek et al. (2025) point for example to the little known effects of environmental (pollution) factors on the biological reproduction capability of humans (men and women).
Additionally, psycho-social factors like “the German Angst” fear about future developments in many social and economic fields might have direct effects, but also indirect effects on human biology. We know still very little about such feedback loops or feedback effects. We are more convinced, than we actually have hard evidence, that the BSP, SPB or PSB (B=Bio, S=Social, P=Psycho) spheres are interwoven, but an ambitious research agenda is called for to enlighten the issue. The big invisible elephant in the room might be environmental issues that enter into the fertility equations more than we have expected for many years. A nice working hypothesis for an ambitious and overdue research agenda.

05/06/202504/06/2025

AI Workday

Our workdays have seen considerable changes throughout the last few days. The home office boom has allowed employees to work for extended hours from home. The there is an abundant literature on the effects of home office work on well-being or the work-life balance. Productivity gains could be reaped by employers and a better work-life balance was a lasting advantage for employees.
The increased use of AI specific to some occupations has introduced a new form of added productivity for some occupations or professions, AI as complementarity, whereas other occupations suffered a higher risk of being substituted by AI applications.
Based on time diary data, the study by Wei Jiang et al. (2025) reports that users of AI have longer work time and reduced leisure time. Competitive labor markets increase the pressure to put in even higher hours of work. Nerds, just like workaholics, are likely to be drawn into excessive hours of work with increased health risks. Enterprises and consumers appear to be gaining more than the employees, who are at a higher risk of loosing out on their work-life balance over time.

03/06/202503/06/2025

Travel Trumped

The travel and tourism sector of the U.S economy takes quite a hit from Trump‘s anti Canada and Europe tariffs and rhetoric. The Wall Street Journal (2025-6-3) reports data until May 2025 which show a 6% decline in international air travel and a 12% reduction in air arrivals from Europe (reference same period last year). Canadians seem to reduce their travels to the US as well, hitting many regions just across the long joint border. Airline bookings are an early warning indicator, but the more drastic figures are to be expected from the loss of spending tourists do not dispense in the US any more. Additionally, sizeable shares of US tourists travel to other countries due to the disgusting Trump rhetoric and spend their holiday budgets elsewhere. Trump‘s tariffs has focused a lot on redressing the trade balance of goods, but the balance of services like in tourism is worsening day by day now. The political economy of tariffs has multiple feedback effects which are quite hard to predict.

01/06/202531/05/2025

Paris Gare

Train stations in metropolitan inner cities are hot spots of traffic and mobility. The number of people passing through these exchanges are impressive. Public transport systems are continuously put to the test of their capacity to handle passengers who want to get from A to B the fastest way possible. In Paris the RER lines, metro and buses to a great job in handling the affluence of passengers. The comparatively small number of passengers arriving and departing nyy taxi, however, still take a disproportionate amount of space. That’s part of the differentiation or inequality of mobility in Paris. Person‘s in need of assistance should have special access to central points of mobility like train stations. Everybody else could rely on shared modes of transportation otherwise the millions of inhabitants will not be able to get around in a comfortable way.