Category: economics

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Retirement Plans

There are debates about the best organization of retirement. The major fault lines lie between public pension systems and systems that are built based on mainly private provision. Retirement plans in either system are subject to constraints. The recent stock market turbulence has increased the amount of uncertainty people face who invested in 401K plans in the US. Some had to take an unannounced hit to their retirement savings due to the loss after Trump’s back and forth policies on tariffs (OECD Pension Outlook). High volatility of stock market prices creates an additional constraint that you are less inclined to retire when your retirement investments have overall a reduced value. You are a bit at the mercy of capital markets even in your retirement decision, irrespective of the difficulty to predict what your retirement funds will yield as returns. Quite an important lesson to keep in mind when comparing retirement systems in OECD countries. It has been all too easy to blame public pension systems for maybe lower short term interests on pension savings. Being subject to an American president concerning your retirement plans is probably not what many countries would like to have. Trump’s choices on tariffs may have consequences we did not expect to affect us so directly.

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Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

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Value destruction

The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset).

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Rich richer

The US economy under Biden had continued to make Americans richer. In an article by Talmon Joseph Smith in the New York Times from 2025-4-3 p. 7 the puzzle that Americans have grown richer, but don’t feel it, has been well explained. The large share of households owning their homes albeit with mortgages from low interest periods have witnessed their increased wealth. However, inflation is eating into their cash available for daily purchases. With another round of tariffs and additional inflationary pressure caused by those, the average person or household doesn’t fell much better off than some years ago. Economic anxiety and our preference for loss aversion or loss avoidance make us react with consumption restrictions to prepare for increased risks as well increased uncertainty about the directions of the whole economy and our very private wealth and consumption patterns. How and when the US economy will get back on track remains to be seen. Higher uncertainty usually reduces investments and with increasing interest rates again the economic recovery might be protracted. The NYT p.7 cites business owners with statements like “we’re not putting our foot on the brake, but we’re taking our foot off the gas.” Betrayel of working class people due to rising unemployment after 3 years of very low unemployment is likely to widen wealth gaps in the US population even further. The rich will get richer, but at high costs to the population as a whole. (Image: ceiling painting in Petit Palais, Paris).

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Tariffs trumped

Economists are used to differentiate between micro-and macro-level effects of tariffs. For each buyer of a car, import tariffs raise expectations about prices for a product. Many consumers will then decide to buy lower quality at the same price or postpone buying a new or replacement product for some time. For cars it might mean that many people will then decide to buy rather later than sooner. If thousands of people do so, the market will fall into recession overall and it will take months or years to come back to the same or a higher level. A political economy perspective has taught us that eager politicians are in favor of a short recession immediately after an election which increases the chances of reelection once the economy gets back to normal or catches up on lost growth. 

The US under Trump apparently gambles with such an economic rationale. Short term inflation is already rising, interest rates stay high before the upheaval caused by tariffs stats to settle. 

There is, however, another alternative mechanism at work as well. Torsten Veblen long ago hinted towards what is not called in economics the Veblen effect. Some fancy cars for example can raise prices well above others because of their cleaving image. Just because they get even more expensive the buyers of such products gain additional attention as part of a social class which does not have to care much about their additional spending. The consequences of tariffs will most likely widen the gap between those saving dearly and those able to splash out cash despite increased tariffs. The most felt consequences, therefore, will be on social inequality within the US.

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Bricks and algorithms

Construction as an economic sector has suffered for decades from skill shortages. The PWC study on skill needs in construction and management of digitalization in this sector shows various deficiencies. Labor demand in excess of own training efforts in the related professions is further increasing in coming years. Migrants from across the world have come to Europe to fill the skill shortages and willingness to work in the sector. Population aging increases demand for adaptions of housing and tertiarization of the economy asked for new office space and adaptation of existing ones. 

The skills involved in construction have also evolved. Digitalization and understanding of new technology needs of modern housing increased the level of cognitive skills in the sector enormously. “just let the liquid concrete flow” will no longer suffice. Environmental obligations, renewable energy and design issues had an impact on the sector. 

Many enterprises in this sector have trailed other sectors to adopt strategies like digital pairs of a building or connected manufacturing of facilities with data sharing and compatible software. All this led to the fact that younger employees or university graduates (m/f/d) have preferred other sectors. IT development and applications are interesting and challenging in this sector as well. Logistic arrangements a formidable task as well. 

The claim of too much bureaucracy is just an excuse for lacking digitalization of the sector. Years ago we stated that every task you carry out more than once can be automized. With AI in construction digitalization starts with each singular case as a learning occasion for humans and algorithms supporting us.

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La défense Végétale

Greening a metal and concrete block and buildings is a big challenge. The logic of unrealistic growth and big business has left liabilities for future generations. More vegetation in inner cities is part of our responsibility towards future generations. Therefore, urban planning has started in Paris to get rid of concrete walls and floors.

Eventually the district might have a more human touch which attracts citizens and new businesses and services. The adaptation of the infrastructure to facilitate mobility with bicycles and secured pedestrian paths has started but will take a lot of time before people adopt again these more healthy modes of transport. The big boulevards reserved for polluting transport is no longer adequate in combination with residential living spaces.

It will take a change of a whole generation to accomplish such a fundamental change. The reduced demand for office space due to more employees choosing to work from home contributes to such a change as well. Many other cities go ahead with similar changes (Copenhagen, Berlin). In combination with the „All electric society“ there are fundamental changes at work which will make inner cities more attractive again. Ease of clean transportation and other infrastructure for urban lifestyles ensures that cities remain strong points of attraction. They keep pulling people from nearby and far away towards them, if we like it or not.

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La Défense reframed

  1. The whole new business area „La Défense“ was a huge investment project with international speculators highly motivated to reap the benefits of a business location just next to Paris, which at best would even feel a little bit like being „intra muros“. However, being at La Défense you see „L’Arc de triomphe“ only quite far away and you don’t really get the impression that you are in Paris. The high rising buildings around there originally gave god reasons for expensive office space. Few residents spaces made the area uncomfortable in the evenings after office hours. After 2025 most office spaces no longer are attractive for businesses and lack behind environmental standards of the 2020s.  Many projects attempt to renovate the former office space into residential buildings with a considerable loss in the value of previous office space. For people working in the multiple shopping centers there this might be a feasible option if the rent is not excessively high. Students in transit through Paris might find this attractive as well. Families, however lack an adequate infrastructure as this area was built for an outdated business center and business model where families were believed to obstruct business efficiency. As the project developers have written off their investments over 25 years society can clean up the remaining space and repair. It will be another medium term project to re-create a convivial environment and community there as before the overriding device was make money there and run to a more human and diverse space.
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Hands-on AI

The use of AI in translation and to streamline texts and preparation of communication has become a common experience. The applications in medical fields are less well known. Scans and checking of skin cancer could be a game changer for many who live far away from the next medical doctor. AI assisted brain surgery is another issue, but a very specialized application. The interface of AI and robotics might be another game changer as such applications where you train the robot with for example weight lifting and transportation charges can contribute to alleviate human skeletons. Handheld devices can guide the robot and data from sensors will complement the learning of the tasks through assistance from AI. Applications are manifold and we have not even seen the most promising ones. The application potential in warfare are particularly troublesome as humans do not necessarily enter into the concern of AI-assisted weaponry. In the social sphere trust is a crucial behavioral and ethical concern. These issues AI can only learn from us. Any attempts to do without human input and control is doomed to fail. We are not indispensable yet, we are simply turning more and more into responsible, supervisory roles. 

(Image: Acatech exhibition with hands-on AI applications, Berlin in collaboration with IQZ and DTM, German museum of technology.)

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More eCooking

Cooking powered by electricity rather than fossil fuels like gas is an efficient and smart solution. Through the daily cooking activities over the course of a year the savings due to eCooking add up quite a bit. Even compared to an ordinary electric stove the eCooking by induction technology saves almost an additional 10+ percentage of energy as you heat the pot or pan directly rather than an in-between metallic element, which stores heat even after you have switched it off already for a while. In private kitchens the induction option is straightforward. In professional settings the change to induction eCooking needs careful planning. The health aspect of no burnt gas emissions in the kitchen is, however, a strong argument in favor of eCooking as well.
If we apply this logic to low-income countries and cooking in schools or other institutions as well as companies, the environmental and economic benefits add up quickly. In rural areas where no electricity grid is available or stable enough, the decentralized provision of electricity through for example solar energy creates a cost-effective alternative. In urban areas with high levels of various kinds of pollution the “clean” alternative could make a considerable difference as well.
The eCooking evidence is another pillar of the “all electric society” of the 21st century.
(Image: Rirkrit Tiravanija, untitled (Café Deutschland) and extract from “Freiheit kann man nicht simulieren“, Berlin Martin Gropius Bau, 2024-2025)

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Unwinding USA

Stock markets move largely due to expectations. Therefore, the mixing of economics and politics can create lots of signals, which are likely to raise price expectations. Inflationary pressures will call for central banks to increase interest rates which will reduce economic activities that are largely financed through the credit market.
The unwinding of the economy reduces turnover and most likely also profits of companies. The fate of Tesla cars in the last 2 months (Link) and the stock market value of Tesla shares (Link) have plummeted. The unwinding of shareholder value and inflation on the rise as well are a the effects of the MAGA narrative and Musk‘s appointment in politics as chief of GOPE.
The „home made recession“ in the US and the choice to prioritize own products might work in the long run, but the costs of the short-term induced inflation will affect vulnerable consumers more than the people who buy many products that show few price increases. The unwinding of the economy of the USA is likely to cause shock waves rippling through the global economy.
Image: Prices to charge e-cars with solar energy in Germany according to sunshine.

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Corruption Caught

In fraud or corruption it is primordial that the probability to be caught is very high to deter potential fraudulent activity. The new Trump administration has enacted as one of the first executive orders that the FCPA stops to take on new cases of suspected corruption as well as reconsider some of the running procedures. In the same vein, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) has been silenced so that American companies to not have to disclose ownership information that fall under the CTA until 2025-3-21 until a major reform will be published.
These policy shifts concern more than just US citizens. The competition between countries will be effected because as companies trading with the US which used US bank accounts were also liable under this legislation and subject to prosecution. The FCPA has been an important example for other countries to follow at least within the Member countries of the OECD. The shift in priorities of the Trump administration might open doors again to corruption which we believed were shut with lasting effect.
In conjunction with the rapid increase in military spending when the capacity for the production of military equipment is slow to increase might increase the risks of corruption talking hold again. Market economies build on fair competition, but less prosecution of corruption introduces a bias into negotiations which works against innovation and competitiveness. We have a hard time to understand any kind of logic in such economic and legal strategies.
Image: Bridge collapsed due ro material defects. Archive Berlin Tempelhof Schöneberg.

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Digital Visions

Urban planning has been digitalized for a long time. 3D modeling of places and buildings including their interiors are state of the art. As urbanization is also about investment, speculation and anticipation, digital imaging has entered the public spheres in form of cover up of building sites behind fences and in form of large digital prints for information, curiosity and advertising purposes. The inner cities are frequently an avantgarde and microcosm of societal developments. Some dream of full or total flexibility for office spaces (see image below), others experience the inner cities as the spotlight of inequality in society. The best paid executives are catered for by the worst paid delivery personnel. The photographers of the Landesarchiv Berlin, Grönboldt and Wunstorf, brought together a documentary exhibition entitled „Pixel aus Beton“, pixel made of concrete.

With a bird‘s eye view they reveal past, present and future details of how Berlin is experienced and envisioned by investors, architects and people living through the seemingly endless construction going on in the city. The keywords list as part of the exhibition creates a link to scientific literature and to the TU Center for Metropolitan Studies. Photography and even more so digital photography offers a social science perspective to the digital images exhibited. Cities are data spinning areas and a formidable place for digital visuals and visions.

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Betrayal Politics

Most economists would hold that in free market economics there is no room for moral statements. Betrayal, therefore, is left out of most standard text book economics courses. However, more advanced courses that include strategies based on so-called “game theory”, where actors may breach prior commitments, betrayal has entered economic science. A “tit-for-tat” strategy is frequently the best “game-theoretic” solution to such strategic behavior to deter also repetition of defecting on agreed rules or bargaining outcomes. For real world applications beyond the simple strategic advice, the maths involved are quite challenging. We’ll check soon, how AI is changing that game.
Another popular economic theory is one of “gift exchange”. You gift a sum of money (or weapons for self-defense to a country) with no explicit consent that the money should be repaid (through rare earths) in peace time. A betrayal occurs, if a country suddenly asks things in return for the previous gifts. For politicians that understand themselves as “market marker” and “deal maker”, there will be a tendency to claim back a gift in order to come to some kind of gift exchange rather than an altruistic donation.
William A. Galston wrote in the WSJ (2025-2-26) naming the US political action of the 2nd Trump administration a “betrayal of Ukraine and American values”.
If free markets mean making ruthless use of “tit for no possible tat” and “gifts are always a gift exchange”, we move back to mercantile and medieval practices, where settles could claim land at gun point.
What way out of this? Adam Smith, champion of classical economics, wrote before his famous book on “The Wealth of Nations” a lesser known, precursor book on “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”. Actually, he was convinced that the one would not work without the other.
Maybe, going back to classical economics is much better than a Trump administration version of neo-classical economics in a new era of political economy 3.0.

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More BRICS

The move towards a multipolar world order is in full swing. With the USA retreating from a primordial international role discarding UN institutions and the defense of major elements in the fight for individual freedom, the diplomatic order of the last 80 years has changed. The liberation of the concentration camps in Germany and the 80 years of the end of the 2nd World War on 1945-5-9 had forged an alliance in which the common enemy was defeated and the the next major confrontation in Europe or on the globe had to be warded against. 

The evolution of peace in Europe has been marked by the Cold War and a bipolar world order which confronted the USA and Russia at various places. The rollback of Russia has seen its high time with the Northern and Eastern extension of the EU and NATO. This goal of US strategic interests has been largely accomplished. 

In the shadow of this bipolar relationship the BRICS have moved towards greater economic power and therefore influence in the international arena. Economic data on the biggest economies in the world over the last years show the rise of the BRICS, bit mainly China and India. Their population sizes create enormous and largely shut off internal markets. All these developments create new challenges to the previously relatively stable world order. Technological advances have been narrowing more rapidly than before since the access to the best available knowledge spreads fast and more equally across the globe through the internet. 

The ugly face pf imperialism is returning front stage and attempts to change the previous versions of imperialism into a new hegemonic world oder. Updated views of economic power and influence zones let us look with a rational perspective on the new power play. Due to the containment of Russian influence, the USA has China as the major power to confront, a major shift as of the 2020s. The China-driven Silk road project with strategic landing points across the globe has „trumped“ American efforts to align BRICS to human rights values over the last decades. European diplomacy will have to recognize that we entered another phase of „Realpolitik“ due to major economic shifts over several decades. (Image: extract from Max Klinger, The walkers, ambush, 1878 in Berlin SPK).

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Blue Sky

In the period of romanticism the associations with a blue sky were very different from today. Getting out into the sun was a kind of privilege for the “leisure class”, of people who could afford to enjoy time outside for boating, walking or other pleasures. In our technology-driven 21st century the associations with Blue Sky are more like a technically enhanced view through for example “Windows” at the news and opinion platform or “Bluesky”.
Several scientific websites that report data on blue skies and air quality more generally across the world report indicators like ozone values O3, sun intensity, micro particles 2.5µm and 10µm, Nitrogen Dioxid NO2 to name the mostly quoted indicators. Hence, just enjoying the blue sky outside isn’t the same as it was before. People working outside in the sun or at times of a blue sky but with high air pollution levels are incurring severe medium-term health risks. The Ozon layers at very high altitudes protect our skin and eyes against high UV-radiation, but O3 on the ground is tough for eyes and lungs.
Technology has come with many blessings, but the negative effects on a global scale become also more evident. Getting used to a particular lifestyle, which produces lots of emissions of aggressive fine particles will make it more difficult to just simply enjoy a blue sky.
In consideration of all these background data with regional variations, we surely need an AI-system which we can ask for advice, whether we should go outside and enjoy the blue sky with or without respiratory mask.
Romanticism has led us all the way to Californication and dangerous enshittification of the air that surrounds us. Youth and the next generations will have very different associations with Blue Sky than we have the chance to, at least, have had.

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United by travel

The economic rationale of profit maximization privileges the construction and management of profitable connections. For train transportation this has spurred over decades the construction of new train lines between metropolitan cities or regions. Whereas connections between Paris and Brussels are abundant and expensive from central stations those living somewhere in between the 2 cities, for example in Mons, have had little chance of access to reasonably priced and fast train connections. This neglect of the in between cities is slowly changing. Sufficiently fast and reasonably priced connections allow Europe to grow together also at the margins. Public transport as alternative to car traffic across borders for „in-between cities“ will bridge the gap between the ease of travel between metropolitan an more remote areas. There is economic growth to be reaped as connected infrastructures allow for economic as well as social mobility and joint development. This is the real European challenge ahead of us and not the numerous summits without tangible results for rural and urban populations beyond metropolitan regions. For regions spanning countries, some will be finally reunited by better public transport a kind of ecological unification.

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Sustainable Food

Climate change has a severe impact on sustainable food production. The OECD reports annually on the evolution of volumes of production and monitors the resources and subsidies allocated to the agricultural sector of the economy. The sector and the whole nutrition chain are frequently perceived as a major driver of shrinkflation, greedflation and cheatflation.
Changes need to be introduced with a medium and long-term perspective in order to allow for smooth adaptations of the sectors involved and to avoid so-called hog cycles.
Most economic debate is focused on the quantity of production. The loss of production due to climate change and Russia’s war in Ukraine has been and continues to be substantial causing starvation and premature deaths. Another issue is the lower quality of food due to droughts. Repeated events call for adaptations. Certainly the adaptation of more resistant crops is part of the answer. However, the other side of the same coin consists in the consumer’s readiness to buy products that suffered during a drought. Just as the reduction of fertilizers and less water in the production of droughts reduces the size of fruit, for example, we, the consumers will be systematically challenged in our purchasing habits of fresh food.
Price-sensitive consumers will have to choose the products that have reduced prices due to drought quality loss. Other consumers may choose the drought affected product if a “resilience message” is attached to such products. Solidarity with climate affected farmers, just like bio-farmers’ products in ecological production, opens up another perspective to more sustainable consumption and farming.

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Existence as Eggsistence

Artists have their own ways of hallucinating. They don’t need an AI to generate ideas beyond the normal, even allowing for 2 standard deviations off the usual. As a result of the thorny question about your existence, Ram Katzir came up with the impressive statement about his „eggsistence“ being subjected to a squeezed experience. Ever increasing shares of the labor force would subscribe to this statement about the modern workplace. Each turn of the screw risks to crack up the egg‘s shell. Rather focus on the egg, try to get a grip on the screw. There are thousands if not millions who crack up under the excessive pressure of economic and political circumstances. The new platforms of food, grocery and parcel delivery at home have become the latest example of AI-assisted and algorithmicly managed screws. What is driving your eggsistence. It is about time to  ask fundamental questions again. (Image: Eggsistence, by Ram Katzir 2021 in Brussels, Galilas Collection Belgium)

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Electronics repaired

The all electric society will have a number of consequences. We need to think about durable electronics. Many electronic appliances get broken rather quickly even by normal usage. The task to repair the beloved electronic gadgets of your children or simple electronic household devices reveals the fallacy of the consumerist societies. “Use it and throw it away, if it is not working any more”. This is the standard mantra of our societies. In order to save resources, we have to reuse, repair and re-engineer a lot of electronic devices. So far, the engineering process consisted largely in finding ways to assemble fast and with inputs as cheap as possible. The task of designing products that are repair-friendly, circular and allow to disassemble the product easily is a bit counter-intuitive to the consumerist society. If your juicer lasts for years, you will be unlikely to buy another more fancy one or even a connected one very soon.
Repair-friendly design and assembling will be the next generation products of the all electric society. Plugs, interrupters, relays and electric engines of older devices will be valuable after the original use in a household product, which has seized to function. Many parts can be put to other use. Re-engineering with sustainability in mind has an important function also in the move towards gaining autonomy again. For the repair of electronic devices we shall focus more on fine motor skills of our hands again. The shortages of electronic components to build cars after the Covid-19 crises and the disruption of supply chains for other reasons provide a good lesson to advance faster in the direction of electronics repaired.

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Defence Spending

As in research there are many dual use products, which can be part of defence spending. Robotics in production or rockets to launch satellites for telecommunication are such examples. Much less known to the public is the amount of military spending that goes into medical developments that benefit both the military as well as the civil population. Countries build a whole ecosystem round the provision of medical services for defence purposes , which consists not only of a sufficient number of qualified persons, but also companies that provide specialised products. Most of them have civil applications as well after minor adaptations.
Oxygen provision was a prominent example of a product that has civil and military uses in treatment of respiratory infections or contaminations. A mobile transportable operation table is another element of daily rescue services as well as potential use in situations of conflict, just like anesthesia machines. An increase in spending on such infrastructure and the necessary long-term training of persons operating and maintaining these medical applications take time and considerable financial resources.
The current debate in Europe and NATO neglects the considerable time delays in production and provision of the equipment. Research on “Skill Needs in OECD countries” has shown the substantial delays between sudden skill needs and the time to train high-skilled persons.
The International Review of the Armed forces Medical Services is a journal dedicated to publish up-to-date information on needs of medical products and persons trained to use them in special emergencies. The need to safe lives in extreme and dangerous conditions needs preparation of thousands of specialists. Of course we hope that such an incidence will not happen. The persons and material have an obvious potential to serve the civilian population in more peaceful times as well. The unfortunate “hog cycle” in skill provision is not a problem for dual use products or services.
(Image: edited extract of a mobile operation table)

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Corridorisation Connectivity

In some cities, “I love Paris” (Jazz Song), we admire the “breath-taking” large corridors, right in the centre of the city. This has been the outcome of the urban planning in the 18th century. Haussmann designed large parts of Paris with huge corridors despite the medieval narrow streets in some of the arrondisements”. Ease of traffic, fewer riots and representative housing became the new mantra of urban planning and superb boulevards.
In the 21st century it is about time to question the notion and social process of corridorisation. This has been accomplished in a paper by Fatima Tassadq et al. (2025). Modern infrastructure like fibre-optic cables, energy or water networks are easiest to deploy in urban spaces with large corridors than the complex narrow inner cities with supposition of different kinds of network layers. The grand ideas of the 18th century should be questioned from time to time and some districts that have escaped the corridorisation might well have a particular charm about them, maybe just because they seem to escape the rational approach of making and structuring space by means of large corridors. Large corridors separate city districts and they are a major driving force of gentrification.
The rationality of corridors has some roots in maths or physics of complexity. A recent paper by Shanshan Wang et al. (2024) reports the surprising finding that the transport corridors in several cities across the globe allow for a 1.3 times the distance of transport networks compared to the so-called direct linear “bird’s flight line”. Hence, corridorisation is (has been) a rather pervasively applied model of urban planning.
Alternative approaches advocate in favor of the 15-minutes walking distance city. All amenities like shops, schools, maybe work and services should be reachable within a 15 minutes walk. This does include “walking corridors” that facilitate (social) connectivity in inner cities. Cyclists also claim their corridors or fast lanes across cities, which underlines the pertinence to take corridorisation seriously and apply the concept with care.
In any case, social connectivity is key. The big social media platforms operate similar to the traffic infrastructure in the 21st century and provide huge corridors to knowledge and people. We only realize this once a service (for example tiktok) or the internet altogether gets disconnected. We have moved from (social) categorisation to (social) corridorisation as technology and rationalisation have taken the upper hand to structure our (social) lives.

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Cheatflation

There are many ways to study inflation. You may start by looking through your collection of bills. Economists like to swear by the consumer price index or indices, if you are even more into inflation. In textbooks like “economics for dummies” we learn about rational behavior and price adjustment mechanisms through the “invisible hand” to find some sort of equilibrium.
Advanced economics courses will teach you about strategic behavior inspired by game theory and the effectiveness/ineffectiveness of cheating. For advanced economists it is, therefore, inevitable that “cheatflation” should be part of the economists’ vocabulary. Of course, a profit maximizing entrepreneur is likely to way the risk of being found out contributing to cheatflation against the potential gains.
How to cheatflate? Too easy. Any producer of a product can cheat by using, for example, other ingredients than those printed on the product label, usually cheaper ones. Instead of fruit juice (wine) you may just sell colored water with lots of sugar (ethanol) in it, but still label it fruit juice (wine) and get away with this, until a consumer protection group makes a fuzz about it. A more sophisticated way is to sell investments in ESG-rated funds, but then include dirty stocks without proper notification in the fund, which probably increases profits based on wrong labels.
There is a specific quality to cheatflation, which makes it different from shrinkflation or enshittification. The drive to “obtain unfair advantages” through cheating across a whole country or region makes cheatflation an economy-wide process and subverts general fairness rules as well as trust in a society.
(Image Saccharometer, DTM Berlin 2024)

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Politician Cycles

In a bookstore which sells books in English or American language we find lots of biographies or autobiographies of politicians. As a politician you don’t even have to be out of politics when your biographical account or your own view is published, let alone be written. Publishers seem to hunt politicians who made headlines, no matter good or bad. Outside the EU you can always sell biographies at half price, if the volumes sit for too long on the precious shelves of bookstores. Most of the biographies are found in the history section of shops or libraries, however some show off in sections like politics (if not dead for too long) or in the business and management sections. Leadership is a big issue in the latter disciplines, but the psychological or sociological literature starts to meddle with the received wisdom of how single person leadership is in fact facilitated with the many great people around the sometimes outstanding single person. Maybe the focus on a single person is an easily understood and simplifying concept of leadership. In the case of Obama (2x) two single historical accounts complement the one person focus. In 2025 Michelle Obama skipped the funeral of Jimmy Carter where she would have had to sit next to Donald Trump (according to the Daily Telegraph and probably endure small talk). Politics appears to move in circles and politicians might find themselves encircled.

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Investment Disinvestment

Asume we live in a world of fixed amounts of investments. The option to invest in a new project or product will automatically reduce the amount of investment in another product. The investment decision, therefore, is subject to opportunity costs. A recent study by Naci et al. (2025) applies this rationale to the investment in new drugs compared to financing other traditional treatments. The results for the U.K between 2000 and 2020 revealed that the „quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)“ is not in favor of the investment in new drugs. The relatively small numbers of beneficiaries of the new drugs is compared to the many other persons who could have benefited from the less costly previous treatment. Investment in one new drug causes disinvestment in other ones. The overall balance for the UK turned out to be negative. Particularly the disinvestment in prevention of diseases appears to have very detrimental effects in view of the results based on this study. Preventative measures are relatively cheap compared to the estimated 20.000 pounds for one additional quality adjusted year of life for a new drug. The message is: choose your health investments wisely to avoid ever rising health costs and health insurance. (Image: rest room Belgium)

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Question Tomorrow

« Tomorrow is the question ». This is the imprint on the 8 table tennis tables in the Martin Gropius Bau 2024. As part of the Contemporary art exhibition by the artist Rirkrit Tiravanija, the tables are very busy throughout the day and invite people to meet, play and greet. If tomorrow is the question, today is the answer. Is it?  Maybe the answer is the day after tomorrow? Time appears to be the answer and the question. Such questions touch on basic philosophical questions about our relationship to and concept of time. Future orientation or even the belief in life after death touch upon basic religious beliefs. Intergenerational transmission is useless if there is no tomorrow or concept of tomorrow. Sustainability is most relevant if we are convinced there will be a tomorrow. Fatalists or warmongers rate today so much more than tomorrow that everything is subordinated to the urgency of now. Not easy to strike the right balance between „for now“ and „for tomorrow“. Simple financial discounting of benefits which accrue only tomorrow do not solve the urgency issue of behavioral concerns. My personal discounted value of ice cream tomorrow might be superior to ice cream now, but it is based on the tacit assumption that the shop still exists tomorrow or any other time in the future. The exhibition invites people not only to play table tennis but also to discuss the question of tomorrow across language barriers and across tables and cultures. 

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Sociolegal Circularity

At times legal systems feel like going round in circles. Legal procedures move from one stage to the next and they may get referred back to the previous instance to resolve a particular issue or restart the procedure. This has good reasons with the aim of “doing justice”. Sociolegal circularity, however, begins before the, right at the beginning and negotiation of legislation on which all legal systems are based in democracies, that is. Hence, the legal definition of waste, recycling as part of the circular economy and society is rather crucial.
Circularity is a complex sociolegal issue as the example of PFAS in plastics demonstrate. In economic theory the existence of externalities invites profit seeking of the kind like: “the sea in large part is owned by us all and there is no price attached to the (ab)use of it. Dumb PFAS into the sea, because the costs of cleaning up will be shared by all of us”. In order to limit the extent of this economic logic, we have to rely on sociolegal processes. The precise definition of property rights and liabilities beyond the PFAS issue have to be well-defined. It is an intergenerational topic as well, not only in view of deferred payments.
Parliaments have to be rather competent to look through all the complex issues of producing and recycling of materials to make sound provisions in law including future generations. Going round in circles in parliament is yet another element of necessary condition of circularity in a rather broad sense.
The air we breathe and the water we drink have become part of this “economic externality”, which is a very internal, inside of our body kind of sociolegal affair. Who is responsible for the bad air we breathe and the contaminated water we drink? Air and water have for a long time become marketable products. The more your local water is polluted, the more we are forced to buy water. The more the air in inner cities is filled with fine dust particles, the more medical doctors, hospitals and rehabilitation facilities we need to construct.
For GDP calculations these are win-win-win situations, although they make us all worse off. Society and politics are in charge to define and redefine (yes, circles again) the legal basis with a lot of precision and scientific detail. Sociolegal circularity is key. You just have to turn it in the right direction.
(Image, Palais de Justice, Brussels view from Forest district).

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Socioeconomic Circularity

Some sectors of the economy receive a lot of attention, for example sectors selling fancy cars. Other sectors, like the ones regrouped under the name of circular economy, receive much less attention and show up little in headlines. In fact, the circular economy is a great example of this. There are thousands of waste and rubbish collection, sorting and recycling centers, several hundreds of waste-to-energy plants, composting sites across the European Union. Of course, there is also a European Federation of the sector (FEAD). On the last FEAD conference in Brussels 2024 it became clear that Europe is finally waking up to the challenge of recycling costly raw materials.
The narrative concerning the sector needs to change further: what used to be subsumed as costly nuisance is in fact a potential profit center for companies and society at large. We do no longer want to import lots of raw materials from countries with dubious social and environmental records as part of our supply chains for raw materials. Time to act. This, however, is a rather complex socioeconomic challenge of circularity. The price mechanisms are not fully functional in most Member States, let alone across the EU. Additionally, the social practice to recycle varies greatly between countries. Distributional issues matter as well. It is rather obvious that dumping waste from one region/country in another one has huge implications (nuclear waste), but if one country values waste more than another one, due to innovative recycling techniques, the matter takes a marketable turn. Regulation should carefully distinguish categories of materials as we do for hazardous materials in production, consumption and for health and safety purposes of employees.
Metal, battery, cement, plastic and wood recycling pose challenges, but also opportunities to improve the European material import/export balance sheets. However, first in the circle of circularity is the use of materials. There we are clear that “less is better”. Less input of raw materials, most of which we import in the EU, reduces our dependence on other countries. This is the tricky social question of circularity. Mainstreaming of more conscious use and reuse of resources is a huge social issue, which we tend to relegate to a task for the education system. The awareness that supposed waste is also a valuable resource is spreading and the growth of the sector a business and employment opportunity for many. Circularity is the new sexy sector of the 21st century.
What have you recycled today? and myself? Well, scientific online publications. Now think of ChatGPT and the AI gold mines of 2024. There is lots of value in recycling.
(Image FEAD conference Brussels, 2024)

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Book Value

What is the value of a book? For the author of a book each book s/he has written or sweated the value of the accomplishment is pretty high. From the publisher’s perspective a book is an investment and sometimes a very risky one. The book store makes choices and takes the risk to devote time and effort to select the bestselling books or the best one suited to the local or passing audiences. Next in line are librarians who either stock everything published in a specific language or country (legal deposit) or select from the offer according to perceived interests of their subscribers. On the way to their audience many mistakes may occur. Books miss their targets or librarians go wild in their efforts to guard or discard books. In any case, many books do not find their audience. Some sit on shelves for years and will never be touched by anybody. Other ones pass from one hand to the other rapidly with long waiting lists.
Even if many conservationists don’t like it, it is the use of books that honors books and authors. Pocket books play a specific role in this link of readers and writer. Use rather than conservation, is the prime role of these lighter versions of books. They also have to endure heavy weather, scratches and folding of persons focused on content rather than precious form.
Last but not least in line comes the market for recycled books. Re-use of read or unread books has increased over years and some readers are happy to discover a discarded book from a previous owner (public or private). The value of a book lies in most cases in the eye of the reader. This then makes it an object of competitive marketing and continuous auctioneering.
(Image: pocket books at display of Popular heritage Lost and Found at the Royal library of Belgium 2024.

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Sunny Trade

Some countries or regions struggle with trade deficits or trade surpluses, which cause worries to their partners. Eurostat publishes regularly the latest trade figures for the EU with external partners. The EU as a whole has a trade surplus in September in 2024 of € 12 billion. From January to September in 2024 the surplus accrues to 140 billion already. Overall, this is a rather sunny picture of EU trade. As we import raw materials and fossil energy mainly, the rest of the world is largely appreciating what we do with the imports, at least in an economic sense, environmental concerns tend to be neglected in such considerations.
The import statistics and figures do not capture the contribution of the sun to our energy balance sheets. We import energy from the sun almost on a daily basis and our trade statistics to not capture this, despite their huge impact on production and the fossil energy trade imbalance we report each month. Imported energy, the largest negative position in our sunny trade balance, in the EU amounts to € 20 billion per month. Harvesting more wind and solar energy as well as geothermal sources and energy storage require huge investments, but millions of Europeans are willing to contribute to this effort. With rising protectionism we should act now to avoid years of structural trade deficits in the coming years. There should already be more sun in the still sunny trade balance. To keep it that way more sunny trade will do the trick.
(Image from Eurostat, 2024-11-18, Euro area trade balance by product group in billions of €, original states in %, retrieved 2024-11-29)