As we realize that critical infrastructure on earth is not safe in times of military conflict, space missions have become an additional form of competition between countries, continents and alliances. India has accomplished in January 2025 the coupling of 2 space satellites. The level of technological knowledge to achieve the coupling and decoupling of satellites included among other competences the mastering of algorithms that control sensors and propulsion. Beyond the communication cables on earth, satellites can assure telecommunication services, if other networks are interrupted.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISPO) has announced the successful “space docking experiment” (SpaDeX) and joins the other 3 countries US., Russia and China as the 4th country to achieve this. The race in space and to space beyond earthly competition shifts attention also to the additional category of a race to technological innovation and applications of those. Since the war of Russia in Ukraine we know about the “dual use” factor (civil and military) of satellite technology. Satellite images of your own country are helpful in many respects ranging from weather forecasts, rain, draughts and habitat changes or population movements. Early warnings of flooding are surely important civil applications. Movements of military equipment by potential enemies are much needed early information, which increases warning time spans. With more satellites in space the good as well as the dangerous potential is expanding. Sovereignty in the 21st century certainly has a technological dimension. Therefore, the demonstration of satellite coupling in space accomplishes not only a dual use achievement, but also fulfils a triple use or ambition. The 3rd one is political. Hey, look we are also watching you, or might do so.
(Image: Robert Indiana “Imperial Love” 1966/2006 in Berlin Neue Nationalgalerie) 
More Battles
In 2025 we continue with the same battles as in the previous year. However, the way armies fight military battles has evolved. New types of weapons like drones have entered the stage. These precision weapons (Horowitz, 2024) have the advantage to be not only less costly than other heavy mass and costly artillery, they can also be guided in swarms to their targets. A further advantage is the steering of drones needs differently qualified persons rather than advancing with heavy armored vehicles on battlefields. Upskilling of defense forces is an important side effect. Jamming technology of radio frequencies was applied before, nowadays this has turned into a crucial defense strategy to intercept and derail drones and rockets off their intended targets.
Other than heavy weight arms, even laser beams enter the arsenal of weapons, if targets are sufficiently static in nature. These high-energy beams are still more in the research and testing realm rather than used on the battle field, but it becomes clear that research capacities play and played an important role throughout military history. The next generation of robots, not only in production processes, but more those walking on the battlefields is likely to change wars to less manned interventions. The technological innovations shall further move the spiral of new generations of weapons forward. Fewer soldiers, but more robots in the air, at sea and on the ground might increase the risks of “restrained”, less costly, but longer duration conflicts across the globe.
I always thought of robots as rescue robots to save lives. The flip side of the coin, however, is destruction before rescue as well. Technology can be put to both purposes. It is us who decide, which one takes the upper hand. 
Cumulative Mandates
Since 2010 and with 18 volumes the documentation of perpetrators assistants free riders during the Nazi rule in Germany has been valuable and reliable source of information (Kugelberg Verlag). The book series defines the perpetrators as the persons excuting crimes themselves or were in command of those who committed the crimes or gave orders to do so. It is not surprising to find evidence of many crimes, but rather that it took such a long time until the documents were published and the descendants were confronted with the facts and the difficult heritage. There are still many who undertake all efforts to deny the facts or try to minimize the guilt of perpetrators. With the real dangers of new right-wing extremism on the rise across Europe and even beyond, it becomes more important to uncover the strategies and biographies of the perpetrators. Certainly the members of the SS were executives and in command of atrocities, so-called NSDAP party officials were also mostly convinced followers of Nazi doctrines and instrumental in the implementation of crimes. Additionally, several professions (line soldiers or medical doctors) were key in the process to ensure the power of the totalitarian regime until the final days. Some persons were cumulating roles and became thereby inescapable spiders in a web of control and crimes. The lessons for today consist in hindering excessive cumulation of mandates, political, professional, military and in other work or civil society related functions. Distribution of power is one form to safeguard the survival of democratic structures. 
Victim Perpetrator
Research on the Shoa and the Nazi crimes has a clear cut separation into millions of victims and millions of perpetrators. There is only a very small group of persons who risked their lives in their attributed or chosen role of perpetrators and saved lives. Most of those persons received recognition later, some decades later. The vast majority of persons were oblivious to their prior roles and some even tried to defend them themselves through a variant of victim blaming in recurrent attempts to reduce their guilt. Another frequent excuse is to recur to a perpetrator’s own experience as a victim of abuse or tough childhood. In a static perspective this might work, but the learning and reflection ability of humans apply to all persons irrespective of age, if they show the willingness to do so. victimization is powerful tool to justify a role as perpetrator later on. Criminal courts assisted by psychologists statements accept guilt reduction. After all those considerations the basic classification into victim or perpetrator remains a valid differentiation, only very few cases allow for a more nuanced assessment of the case. (image extract of Rachel Baes MRBAB Brussels) 
Reconciliation
European history is a long history of atrocities committed against humanity. The Documentation Centre for Displacement, Expulsion, Reconciliation in Berlin (Image below) captures this history in a comprehensive manner. We are quickly overwhelmed by this weight of history and the implications this has for the understanding of the people on the globe. This relatively new learning centre has, beyond the memorable permanent and temporary exhibitions, a room of silence to recover from the hard work of remembrance, always in view of reconciliation.
The library allows personal search and research of migration documents and biographies. All centuries have their history of displacements, but the Nazi terror surpassed all prior records and forced millions into displacement or death. We are still working on this heritage and the enlightenment of how these atrocities could take place. Full consciousness of the terror and horror of the 30s and 40s is necessary to guard against the many attempts to falsify historical events or discard the sorrow of millions of people and their families.
Reconciliation remains a continuous challenge. A large part of diplomacy has to deal with reconciliation beyond concerns of daily affairs. It is not just a matter for head of states and days-off during a year. Stillness helps to deal with the challenge, especially if it is very difficult to find adequate words. 
On Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a catchword for all sorts of undetermined occurrences, which we might have to confront. We associate economic uncertainty with the difficulty to forecast or predict the economic evolution of key indicators like inflation, GDP, CO2-emissions, energy and raw materials’ prices and availability. Even factors like increases in greed of CEOs, psychological factors like insecurity about external or internal conflicts drive these macroeconomic indicators. Micro-level features of your own stage or evolution of the life course have an impact on and will be affected by uncertainty. Employment, housing, family, or household composition are subject to high levels of uncertainty. These micro- and macro- level factors are, of course, not limited to the domain of economic phenomena. Most recently, political uncertainty has reentered the international and national sphere with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This election outcome of the U.S. is perceived by many as increasing the overall uncertainty due to the unpredictability of political decisions and even previous treaties with the U.S. or where the U.S. is a major partner in the agreement. These economic and political uncertainties are accompanied with a perception of growing legal uncertainty even in very personal spheres of life. Last, but not least uncertainty about climate changes like heating up of the planet and more devastating flooding and droughts contribute to increased uncertainty about future developments and the need to initiate adjustment processes and the financing of those.
The individual and societal ways to cope with increased uncertainty are one of the major economic, political, legal and social issues for the coming years. The answers are likely to be found in mutual, cooperative and risk sharing arrangements. The social in society will be a major part of dealing with increased uncertainty. 
(Image: Extrait of Paul Klee, Seiltänzer 1923)
Commemoration
In The month of November we commemorate those who died and particularly all those who died in the combat for freedom and democracy. The Russian aggression does not show many signs of ending the killing of soldiers and civilians on both sides. Ukrainian forces struggle to resist the Russian occupation of its territory as Russia is sacrificing thousands of lives for small gains of territory it is unlikely to defend in the coming months if Ukraine possesses longer reach weapons. A new spiral of an apocalypse is most probably the result of the Russian insistence on external aggression to cover up more internal problems. A lost generation of young soldiers who died in combat or suffered mutilation will be the outcome of these atrocities. The inflationary effects of wheat and energy prices globally have caused additional casualties in countries that had absolutely no stakes in this war. Russia is to blame for those additional casualties as well as the adverse effects on the world‘s climate due to the fighting and destroyed materials that need replacing later on. The young Russian generation will have to stand up against Putin‘s call to war and put down their weapons. This is one way to end the spiral toward yet another apocalyptic experience in Europe and the silent killing through hunger beyond Europe. (Image: BNF Paris, Apocalypses 2024)
Comprehensive Conflict
In a recent paper Mara Karlin (2024 Foreign Affairs LINK) has stated the need for the Western World to understand and even prepare for comprehensive conflict. Particularly in response to Putin‘s war on Ukraine’s territory and the threats and potential use of the full range of weapons including cyber warfare, destruction of energy resources and military production sites the current war comes close to total war. Several European countries have made significant steps to increase budgets for the new forms of comprehensive conflict management. This starts with adequate discussion in public on the dramatically changed security situation after the „Zeitenwende“ caused by Putin. The forceful Ukrainian response with much financial assistance from the West has pioneered drone counter strikes and by this put an end to the Russian progression into its territory. In order to match the total war ideology Putin is implementing in Russian society the Western world will have to rethink production models and strategic defense capabilities in all areas to match the rather real threats by Russia. The prevention of the spreading of comprehensive conflict is of utmost importance since the risk of an expansion of Russian influence and suppression of any internal resistance in Russia has devastating consequences. The 2024 book by Tatjana Tönsmeyer „Under German Occupation, Europe 1939-1945“ (own translation of German title) demonstrates what it meant to live under the domination of an inhuman dictatorship which is ready to use all out war and violence at any occasion. We have to confront this, even if we don’t want to face it. Nevertheless, the Russian aggression is also strongly targeted on its own people not to take risks of separation from Russia as this would mean devastating destruction to those regions and people who dare to do so. External explosions are therefore for Putin a prevention of implosion of the Russian Federation similar to the Soviet Union previously. Comprehensive Conflict extinguishes any remaining internal opposition as intended collateral damage. In Western countries, however, we shall have to argue with opponents and build majorities through understanding the issues at stake not through silencing opponents and opposition. The debate about comprehensive conflict is only about to start, but it is likely to last for several election cycles. (own image, Contemplation on infinite landscapes, Berlin 2024)
History’s Weight
The artist Damien Deroubaix is currently exposed at the BNF.fr in its historic site Richelieu. Together with and next to some of the historic treasures of the BNF collections the unique exhibition allows to experience history’s weight on our current existence. The work of Deroubaix is following and pursuing historic art trajectories with a special historical and ethical consciousness. Techniques of art are insensitive to the moral compass of the painter in history. The collections of the BNF like all major European collections have to handle their colonial past and immoral depictions throughout history. Deroubaix accomplished to liberate techniques of art of their colonial linkages and imagination of emperors focusing on humanitarian values. War is horror, in the past and in the present. Genocide in Rwanda is war crime and dealing with the memories of people an honorable way to look forward conscious of the past. Hybrid forms of art allow multiple contextualizations of his work. In the Galerie Mansart and Pigott of the BNF the historical embedding enriches the art and vice versa. Art allows us to rise beyond the ashes mankind has and continues to inflict on us. (Images: extracts of Damien Deroubaix at BNF, Paris 2024)
Russian Demographics
Dictators prepare their countries long before for upcoming wars. One indicator of such strategies is the pursuit of “natalist” policies. These are demographic policies that aim to increase a country’s population so that the human losses endured during war maybe recovered faster. Russia has had such a policy doctrine in place for quite many years. Only, it didn’t work. Alain Blum and Sergei Zakharov (2023) have shown this in their paper on “L’obsession nataliste de Poutine“. Rather than achieving a growth in the population, at best, the further rather rapid decline of fertility and the population size before the war is reflected in the data (until 2022). The recent objection of youth and women to bear more children is subject of massive opposition of Putin’s forces inside the country. So-called total fertility of 1.5 per woman before the war is as low as or lower than in many other European countries. However, on the other end of aging is mortality or life expectancy. The data show a rather bleak picture of Russia already before the invasion of Ukraine. Based on data published from INED in France Russia has about 1.000.000 more people dying in 2022 than babies born. Bad handling of the Covid-19 pandemic (inefficient vaccines) is also a reason for this dent in population size. Adding outmigration of youth that does not want to stay in a country that goes to war with peaceful neighbors, this bleak population outlook is the disastrous heritage of the Putin years of Russia in the 21st century for generations to come as well. 
Scorched earth
The Russian military strategy in Ukraine is yet another example of scorched earth. Upon retreat the space is left in a devastated state. Worst of all are the land mines that kill or mutilate even after the immediate danger has passed. The logic in the Russian aggression in Ukraine is particularly strange as the Russians were arguing this is their land and claim the people living there were mostly Russians. The retreat of Russian troops eventually will leave huge territories scorched. The destruction of energy infrastructure is also clearly targeting the population at large to make entire regions difficult to live or survive in during the approaching cold winter months. Decentralized energy provision rather than huge power plants have become a survival strategy for Ukraine and probably its neighboring countries. Sensitivity to the dangers of scorched earth is important to get priorities right for relief.
Artists sometimes show us the way ahead with bright colors, if only we were able to see or understand the signs or signals. (Image extract from Mark Bradford “Scorched Earth”, SMB Berlin, National Gallerie der Gegenwart im Hamburger Bahnhof, 2024-9)
Ukraine Chess
Strategies in Chess, sometimes, inform strategic behavior in wars. In chess there are clear definitions of 2 opponents and their material. Modern warfare has blurred both elements. Opposing parties build alliances and the material allowed or available is hotly debated as well. The war of Russia on Ukraine territory, nevertheless, resembles a variant of a chess game considering the different stages of the game. All starts with Russia choosing its opening attacks. A rather aggressive version of the opening is the King’s Gambit in which a fast attack tries to overwhelm the opponent. Ukraine, because of the surprise and lack of immediate support from neighboring countries, chose a careful defense trying to hold the lines amid a fast forward moving assault. A further restriction for Ukraine was to not use weapons from supporters on Russian territory. In chess this would mean your defense is not allowed to cross the middle line of the chessboard. For example the so-called Sicilian defense does exactly this for many moves of the opening. However, in the middle game this changes and the defense might prepare forceful attacks based on a solid defense. With 2 and 1/2 years into the war the opening has played out and we see middle game strategies take the upper hand. In chess this consist in attempts to gain material advantage, possession of strategically important positions and psychological stamina to mention a few. The middle game can drag out for a long time, especially if a balance of power persists. Even in an unbalanced situation peacemaking takes time as well. In any case, during the opening phase the “Sicilian” defense can handle a defense that is restricted to “own half” of the chessboard, but in the middle phase such a restriction is an even more severe impediment. Relaxing this imposed restriction by supporters opens up additional possibilities for the defense as well as counter strikes. (Image: Shredder Chess App White opens with Kings Gambit and Black answers with Sicilian defense)
International Geometry
Geometric forms sometimes serve to make international affairs more transparent or descriptive. The Weimar triangle is such a formula, which helps to show the links between states. In the journal “Le Monde” of 2024-9-13 an interview with Radoslaw Sikorski reflects the shifting side lengths and military weights within this triangle. The Polish Minister of foreign affairs points at the threats from Russia to violate the air space of Poland and the legitimacy of Poland and the Ukraine, of course, to defend its air space and territorial sovereignty. The guarantee of international law, however, is heavily dependent upon adequate international geometry beyond the Weimar triangle. The meeting with a representative of the Pentagon (US) enlarges the scope of the triangle.
Talking about the reach of missiles in defense is yet another exercise in geometry as this depends on starting and supposed, or reachable, end points. The use of GPS-signals in civilian and military applications is another example of how geometry is ruling our modern lives. Let’s embrace it, rather than shun away from the geometry behind it. (Image Exhibition room at Wiels Art Centre, Brussels 2023).
Olympic Criticism
The Olympic Games are, like every international organization, subject to criticism. In democracies this is part of the DNA of democracies that you can voice your criticisms openly without being threatened by persecution or arrest. The Olympic Games have since its beginning in ancient or modern times favored sport disciplines that have a link to warfare. The spectrum of disciplines has been extended recently to blur a bit this belligerent image of the Games. However even the break dance is performed in a kind of battle or competition between two adversaries. This is the reason why totalitarian states have (had) a predilection to show off their state sponsored warriors in the Olympic Games. Nazi Germany and the Berlin 1936 Games were the worst example of how the Games can get abused only to demonstrate a country’s force through athletes. Dictatorships of our times are not much different in this regard. Showing how many successful athletes (soldiers) you are able to produce is somehow an indicator of your professional training system of elite performance. Now, add to it the top performance in the Paralympic Games like Paris 2024 and you can even demonstrate how well you are able to care for and train potentially even also for mutilated warriors. Criticism of preparations of warriors and war masked through sport competitions are maybe unfair or utterly displaced here. It is, nevertheless, much better to compete on the sports-field rather than with loaded weapons. Only in retrospect, we often understand, why some nations made such enormous efforts to demonstrate a commitment to win as much as possible. With a growing enthusiasm for the Olympic Games the critical reflections rise as well.
Paris libéré
It is with great pleasure to follow how Paris commemorates the liberation of Paris from Nazi-Germany 80 years ago. (Quote from De Gaulle “Paris libéré”.) On the 25th of August 1944 the city of Paris was finally liberated by French armies and the support of the local resistance movement. Similar to the journey of the Olympic flame on the way to Paris, we can follow each city celebrating the liberation from the occupants. Beginning with the landing in the Normandy of the Allied troops, the chasing of the enemy has been a matter of time, but still incurred huge human losses. More than 4 years of Nazi symbols in Paris were finally brought to an end and celebrations on the streets became a symbol for the enormous relief this liberation has meant to the population of Paris, France and hope to many neighbouring, but still occupied territories.
Several documentaries on television and radio allow to empathize with the joy of this time. Enduring the hardships imposed and, for many, risking their lives in clandestine networks of the resistance were honoured by the success of the liberation of the city without the massive destruction, which was to be expected.
A book edited by Ulla Plener (2007) highlights the supporting role played by some women originally from Germany to support the French Resistance movement. It still is not common to understand the retreat of Nazi-Germany also in Germany as the progressive liberation of the country from the terrors of a dictatorship.
Animal Victims
Animals, like birds, dogs and horses are more than just good pets for people. In previous wars like WW1 and WW2 they have served the armies as messengers, logistical support and detectives. This is yet another tragedy of war times that is rarely told. Dictators, just like Hitler, like to show off in the company of animals, although the record to be responsible for millions of killed persons and animals is rather striking. The disrespect of life, be they humans or animals, is an underlying theme. Beware of persons in power who try to soften their public image with the presence of animals at political events. A faked show of care for subordinates and a romantic relationship with animals can be used as an “image-washing” of a cruel personality. A pet-loving image attracts views and attention, sometimes for the wrong purposes. The commemoration of animals that served the French army and people is an important lesson about the extended horrors of war of the past and present. (Image Parc Caillebotte, Yerres France)
Schooling Ukraine
It is hard to imagine what it will mean to go to school, if your father has to defend your country, Ukraine, and freedom of education instead of Russian indoctrination. This is tough for all children in countries that have to defend themselves today or in the past. For Ukrainian children and families who had to flee their country this means that they have to go through another education system, not out of choice, but instead of their normal way through their education system. This means a lot of additional challenges for them. In Germany alone the educational authorities have counted more than 200.000 children in schools at the beginning of 2024. Additional efforts are undertaken to allow mothers as well to learn a foreign language to facilitate communication with the receiving countries. We have to make huge efforts that these children are not a scared generation of pupils but rather a strengthened generation of young persons with solid learning experiences in another country. Some will stay in the receiving countries, many will return and rebuild their homes and communities. Our support and assistance needs to be a long term commitment beyond the end of the war after an eventual Russian retreat from Ukraine territory. Solidarity is not a fixed-term commitment. We shall be put to the test and should not hesitate about our continued support.
Superstates reloaded
We live in an age of superstates. Such is the conclusion of Alasdair Roberts (2023). China(1.4), India (1.2), USA (0.33) and the EU (0.45) in billions of people jointly host about 40% of the world’s population (UN data). The Russian Federation with a population of 0.15, Japan 0.13 rank further behind, for example Pakistan 0.24 and Indonesia 0.27. Nothern, Eastern and Western Africa (0.25;0.46;0.42 respectively) have a huge unfulfilled potential that does not reach the impact it deserves.
These big and populated entities contrast with the increasing number of small states that have become new members of the United Nations. The institution of the United Nations, through its setup as an international rule based governance structure, has facilitated small states to seek voice and influence in the international arena of politics. The UN had 51 members in 1945 and has now a membership of 193 of all listed states of 237 on the globe. The increase in membership is due to many small states joining the UN after independence from big imperial powers. The international power relations, however, are only partially determined by population size but economic and military factors. The so-called superstates reach power through their power of direct and indirect “persuasion. Therefore the relationship between small and big states remains a delicate balance of power. Russia attempted to grab Ukraine and its population of 410 millions to remain in the league of superstates by population size and has suffered a hefty setback which further unsettles the disequilibrium of its male (68) and female (78) population with predominantly male soldiers’ lives lost.
Whereas we have seen the small states’ numbers on the rise in the last few decades, the expansion of superstates from Russia, China, India or Pakistan remain a threat to peace on the globe. The crystallization of a multi polar world order is on its way, but the stakes are high and unsettling in many respects. The fallout of war stalls the adaptation to climate change and increases the millions of starving people on the globe. the attempt to reach superstate status by already big states is probably the greatest danger we shall face for the coming years. Preparing for the instability of the world in transition to an increasing multi polar world order will dominate the political agenda of many intermediate powers as well as smaller states. (Image Globe Moscow 1994, displayed Stabi Berlin 2024)
Women Advisors
Contrary to many men and clergy advising noble governors, many of them famous as womanizers, there is a long tradition of women as advisors as well. The first woman that received high reputation as advisor is “Christine de Pizan“. She was born in Italy and migrated to France with her father who was a scientist and advisor to “Charles V” as medical doctor and astrologist, but who died soon after the move to the French court. With the access to a unique library at the time Christine de Pizan benefited from the best of knowledge and her literary and scientific competences made her famous later on. She could even be compared to Clausewitz as a well known writer on war strategies, but has a much broader literary reach compared over centuries.
Christine de Pizan became a writer in her own right, publishing under her own name in the late 14th century already and not only in literary work, but in fields previously thought to be domains of male writers only. One of her writings “Livre des fais d’armes et de chevalerie” is a testimony of her political and strategic thinking and advice. It remains a unique piece of a woman as advisor in military affairs published in 1410. The translation into “Alemannisch” (1460) highlights the importance of her strategic advice beyond France.
Her literary excellence has been widely appreciated not the least in her praise of Jeanne d’Arc in her “Ditiè”, the poem in honor of Jeanne d’Arc. (source with translation). Christine de Pizan also wrote on peace (Le livre de la paix” 1412 and the “Livre du chemin de longue étude“, today we would translate it as a book on lifelong learning.
(Source: Zimmermann, Margarete, 2005: Minervas jüngere Schwester: Die politische Schrifstellerin Christine de Pizan, Stabi Berlin, KulturStiftung der Länder Patrimonia 265 und SPK.
(Image: Extrait Christine de Pizan im Gespräch mit Minerva. BNF, Paris, Ms. fr 603, fol.21r) 
Violence Potential
The book (editor Sabrow 2023) and the exhibition “Gewalt gegen Weimar. Zerreißproben der frühen Republik 1918-1923” need a broad European audience. The violence, which in the medium term destroyed the newly founded democracy of the Weimar Republic in Germany, is linked to the immediate aftermath of the 1st world war. The relatively calm abolition of monarchy in Germany did in no way prevent the eruption of violence within the new democracy. Extreme forces prepared in organized ways (Organisation Consul) and some in open public discourses the potential for the use of violence. Armaments left over from war equipped the Freikorps Movements and the potential to use the weapons was present at all times in the aftermath of WW1 in Germany. The contributions to the volume provide a detailed account of these 5 crucial years when democracy was able to defend itself against all odds. The strategies to take control of the country were built on a violent rhetoric which prepared the ground to put violent talk into action later on. This spiral of violence is hard to de-escalate once started. However, democracies have to foster ways to calm the spirits in periods of high potential violence. Elections as well as the campaigns before are the arms of democratic change. They should be used as such to pave the way to compromise.
Broken Promises
In a library catalogue, the entry of « broken promises « returns more than 3000 times that the title has been used. « Promises kept » is almost as popular. A rapid inspection of titles reveals that the former titles suggest more factual analyses, whereas the latter is frequently used in the form of an imperative in combination with “should be kept”. The book by Fritz Bartel “The Triumph of Boken Promises …” (2022) demonstrates the importance of the concept of broken promises in the social sciences. The rivalry between socialism, capitalism and the rise of neoliberalism is strongly influenced by the way they handle the breaking of promises made to their respective societies. The promises of increasing wealth and wellbeing have been part of all political regimes. To keep these promises is a completely different story. Especially since the first and second oil crises and many other kinds of crises, it has become much harder to keep these promises. Working hours, retirement ages or minimum wages are all at risk to no longer live up to the promises made in earlier periods. This has put welfare states under pressure that millions of voters perceive politics as a “game” of broken promises. Socialist political regimes like Russia are ready to use physical violence to shut up people that remind leaders of these broken promises. In democracies the ballot box is often used to sanction governments that do not live up to expectations of previous promises. A lot is about public infrastructure which is failing people. Migration, education, social and labor reforms are on top of the political agenda if it comes down to broken promises. The elections of the European Parliament gave many a chance to express their discontent about various broken promises. Maybe democracy is better in providing forms of letting off steam early and protracted protests rather than the Russian way to suppress any critical analysis, let alone opposition movements. Just like the move from industrial production to services as production models, with AI we are likely to see similar problems and probably also broken promises. The challenge is huge and promises should be made with an eye of what promises could be kept.
Dietrich Gabin
In French cinema Jean Gabin is a much adored person. Equally, Marlene Dietrich had, probably an even more far reaching international career. Both were accomplished and successful actors long before the 2nd world war broke out. In the U.S both fell in love and had a long lasting romance together. Their war time activities and “engagement” in fighting Nazi-Germany were extraordinary. It meant that both took active roles to use their charisma to mobilize people and soldiers to fight for freedom.
Shortly after the war then, both made a last attempt to work together in a movie production, but it could not unite the couple again. The “Deutsche Kinemathek” displays currently a page from the Diary of the “Diva” to underscore to what extent “Dietrich” was depressed about the break-up of their longer lasting love affair. Some say Gabin was the only person who quit her, all (most?) other relationships were terminated by the Diva. The junctions of biographies are hard to predict. The circumstances of the 2nd world war and internalized civic obligations to fight for freedom and democracy were wholeheartedly shared by both, but eventually they grew apart nevertheless. Tough experiences even for the much adored persons on the forefront of the stages worldwide. There seem to be many instances of repetition of the same story not only in movies, but also in real life.
Image: Deutsche Kinemathek Museum 2024-5 
Comparative Advantage
In economics all students go through the calculus of comparative advantage. People, regions or whole countries tend to apply comparative advantage to their production systems and ensuing internal or external trade. The basic rationale developed by David Ricardo has not changed that much over 200 years. The fields of application, however, are continuously expanded. Lindsay and Gartzke (2020) have applied the comparative advantage rationale to military strategy. The paper quotes 26 times Clausewitz and demonstrates the links of strategy to the basic economic and social rationale of comparative advantage. It is the politics of production that even the presence of trade may override the rationale of comparative advantage to favour local production of “operational domains” or military equipment.
In Russia’s aggression and war against Ukraine own production and trading of weapons has returned to the forefront of the concerns. In addition to the production of ammunition, the provision of drones has dominated the international arms trade related to the Russian aggression. Resources and time for production are additional factors that have an impact on availability of weapons at the right time at the right place and with the sufficiently trained persons to operate them.
The strategies that cross domains or combine domains seem the most promising. The careful analysis of your own comparative advantages or disadvantages needs to be the basis of any strategic decisions. This has been known for 2 centuries at least and is still valid in many fields of application. Additional considerations for “home production” might add to the complexity of the issue. Sustainability has also found its way into the field of comparative advantage at last. This may alter the analysis of comparative advantage of operational domains as well. Lots of unresolved puzzles still around. It will need years to sort this out despite the urgency of the Russian aggression on Ukraine.(Image: AI Copilot.2024-4-30 2 political leaders deal weapons. One has a comparative advantage in ships. The other one has a comparative advantage in aircrafts. they deal together)
Russian Angst
The title of a book “Russian Angst” by Thomas Franke summarizes the state of Russian society under Putin. It dates back to 2017, but the underlying process of Angst in the Russian society is increasing rather than diminishing due to the already 2 years long intensive hot war of Russia against Ukraine. The Russian Angst is a fear of a continued roll back of its authoritarian rule in Eastern parts of the world and its internal threat that its own people will claim more rights like freedom of speech, freedom of the press and effective democratic voting rights. In a dictatorship the “Angst” is a pervasive phenomenon which creeps into all spheres of live. Franke and Dornblüth (2023) describe the toxic society in Russia. Intoxication and torture of opponents are used by the Putin regime as a threat to suppress critical voices in Russia. Through this a climate of “Angst” is spread so that any internal opposition has to face very high risks to utter any discontent. The experience of a barbarian, totalitarian regime is well known. The threat to life and the presence of intimidation to any disobedient behaviour are strictly persecuted. Nevertheless, the need to think beyond the Putin regime is well under way. The more external and internal, real or imagined threats are countered with brutal force, the more the regime reveals its true kind of governance by force. This invites and leads to the strengthening of counter forces both internally and externally. It seems like box fight in the before last round of a very vulnerable, weakened and isolated boxer. Not many will bet on the likely loser and more countries who previously supported Putin will stop their erroneous policy. Russian Angst and loneliness will further increase. 
Need of War
It seems like a horrific idea to talk about the need of war. We might have deemed it outdated to read about the terrible love of war or about the strategy of war. However, the time of war is back in Europe and Eastern Europe feels the real threat and Ukraine the bombs hailing from Russia. Why does Putin love war? The love of war is largely driven by domestic issues. Staying in power for unliked authoritarian leaders is easiest if they indulge in external conflicts. Dictators love war because it makes it easier for them to sustain leadership through brutal force within the country due to a proclaimed external threat or even outright engagement in war. Democratically elected leaders know that they will leave office eventually in a peaceful way (exceptions like Trump are rare). Dictators use any force or terror necessary to stay in power. The love of war is part of this.
Hence, the need of war goes without questioning, if a country in decline or at risk of decline tries to uphold an inefficient, belligerent regime. Beyond rational reasons, such regimes will abuse ideation about national pride, the national interest and anything pertaining to some supposed myths of nationhood to justify its need of war. The dictators have all failed eventually as resistance against this need of useless war is found out by enemies either within or externally. But thousands or millions of victims will suffer. The pressure against the need of war has to rise internally from opposition as well as from alliances of democracies that do not need war to motivate their people to achieve the best they are able to deliver.
Therefore, the defence of democratic rule is, at the same time, a fight against the need of war by some doomed regimes. After winning the war comes the difficult task of winning peace. This means to create a state of affairs and a state of mind that can do without the need of war. If the external threat diminishes the internal threats might rise and have to be contained as well. Lots of challenges, even for mature democracies. (Image: Berlin 2022-10)
