Permanently anxious

„There’s a set of forces that want us to be permanently anxious“, is the phrase chosen by Tony Cokes in the exhibit just outside the „Palais Populaire“ in Berlin in 2025-5. International politics and the economic upheaval caused by Trump’s tariffs contribute to the already existing other sources of anxiety like nuclear energy and warfare. Global warming causing more extreme weather events add more man-made reasons for anxiety. The next generations will have to foot the bills we have left to them unpaid. Our current shortsightedness increases anxieties which previous generations have not known of a similar kind or in that combination. 

Community building and solidarity are ways to overcome such overwhelming anxieties. Supranational organizations like the European Union have an even stronger role to play to reassure its people with credible signs of solidarity. We are not alone in the struggle to overcome the anxiety that is creeping up around us. We are certainly stronger together than individually dealing with unspecified fears. „We shall overcome …“

Non-autonomous driving

The more engineers will invest in developing autonomous driving vehicles, the more the value of the few completely non-autonomous cars will rise. A 60 years old car with manual gear changing on the steering wheel like the Peugeot 404 from 1965 (image below) demands a strong effort to steer the car around a city. Apparently, some car producers reintroduce buttons to press or switch on devices since customers seem to prefer some manual activity in addition to the touchscreen technology. Voice guidance and gestures can be helpful for some, but there are also the advantages of manual activities that keep you awake and maybe with better focus. Choice is key to suit diverse user and customer preferences.

Local history

In Berlin and many other big cities in Germany like Munich and Hamburg there are local history projects which tell the stories of specific places or a house linked to liberation day or deportation or courageous acts during the Nazi  grip on Germany and terror across Europe. The initiative « Denkmal am Ort » has become a kind of citizen science project which brings people together to raise awareness again for the cruelties committed under the dictatorship of Hitler and the fascist political movements. Remembrance is not a passive form it can take many active forms as well by simply trying to find an answer to the question what happened during the 30s, 40 and 1950s in the house you are currently living in? Access to archives of cities and small towns can tell very surprising stories about local history. It is a great inter generational experience as well and sometimes the unspoken history turns into a great conversation about history and responsibilities. History is everywhere you just need to keep your eyes and mind open.

Technology maturation

Technology has its own time of maturation. The time for wind power generation was quite lengthy compared to some innovation cycles in information technologies. Maybe, due to the fact that large wind turbines had only big enterprises or public monopolies as potential clients who were already heavily invested in even bigger nuclear energy projects caused the slow pace of development of this technology. In Germany just like in Denmark, Sweden and the USA the first larger research projects took off in the mid or late 1970s. The technology is explained by Erich Hau in a comprehensive way including the early days like the « Growian » test wind turbine in Germany (extract of image below). Despite the fact that major engineering difficulties were overcome already in the early 80s, the economic and legal challenges took much longer to resolve. Nowadays, we have an additional case of energy sovereignty to add to the cost-effectiveness of power generation from winds offshore and onshore. In the coming years we are likely to see more and more decentral power generation from wind on roof tops or small poles to complement solar energy during cloudy but windy weather or at night. Just like the sunshine we shall praise the windy days for their power generation potential.

Constitutional Responsibility

The memory of horrors caused by Nazi-led Germany before and during the 2nd World War is our constitutional obligation in the Federal Republic of Germany since its beginnings in 1948. 80 years after the unconditional surrender this has become a state responsibility. Since the shift of tone introduced by Richard von Weizäcker on 8th of May 1985 framing the end of the 2nd WW as liberation day in Europe and Germany. On the same day, 40 years later, the top 5 political instances of democracy in Germany, president, chancellor, presidents of the parliament (1st chanber), the council of the regions (2nd chamber) as well as the constitutional court. The constitutional and moral responsibility of the crimes is not reserved to a presidential address, but all pilars of democracy in Germany committed to the narrative of a liberation of Germans and Europeans at the end of the 2WW. It is a truly European topic to celebrate the end of war jointly in all countries. This is even more the case as the memories of the last survivors of the Shoa in Europe is less transmitted by the rare survivors until today due to very old age. The impressive unity of the top constitutional powers sets a the path for a far reaching renewal of the acknowledgement of a specific constitutional responsibility to counter extremist tendencies. The speeches by Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Julia Klöckner in the Bundestag (Link in German) were remarkable in explaining in plain language, why we are happy about this liberation also in Germany. The emphasis of the end of pervasive and endless oppression and suffering caused by the Nazi-regime are an essential part of this feeling of liberation. With this commemoration Germany today has become even more a European nation which takes its historical responsibility seriously.

Liberation Day

In Germany the celebration of the liberation day 2025-5-8 change years of mixed feelings about what happened during the 2nd world war. In Berlin this day is a bank holiday now and more and more people subscribe to the view that the liberation from Nazi-terror was a blessing for German people. The “Neue Wache” is the room of silence in honor of all victims. We shall always remember. Fighting the early tendencies remains the most effective strategy to avoid extremism of fascist groups. It is the task of Germans born also long after the war to keep the memory of the atrocities alive and to care about prevention of new ones.

Ugly duckling revival

Ever since Hans Christian Andersen created the fairy tale of the “ugly duckling” (1843) the story has been adapted to all forms of theatre. The adaptation of the fairy tale to the stage in 2019 and the revival in 2023 at the “Deutsches Theater” in Berlin keeps inspiring people to surpass their restrictions or inhibitions, whatever they may be. This early 19th century fairy tale is a fine piece of the search of identity of a person. As it deals with the difficulty of individuals to find their own identity, the fairy tale deals already with the fitting of an individual into society. Society exercises pressure on individuals to conform to written and unwritten rules, which tend to hold up rules like “one size fits all”. Differentiation and allowing individuals to be different from an established norm becomes a central theme of modernity and even more so in the post-modern world. It is the essence of democratic societies to practice a tolerance of persons being or just wanting to be different. The performance at the “Deutsches Theater” might be a test of your level of tolerance or acceptance of diversity for some, but at the time of rising intolerance in and beyond the U.S. under Trump, such performances are dearly needed to celebrate the rich cultural heritage and achievements of far reaching tolerance. It becomes more evident what we are about to loose (again), if such performances would no longer be possible in a controlled or financially overly restricted world of theatre.

More sensors

The technical games that have largely replaced the traditional electrical train and cars of the boomers and older generations shift towards robotics. This has the touch of more future orientation and fun for the young used to gadgets, automation and the beginnings of AI. Therefore, the robots of our children and the ones they assemble in technical games include more sensors. Infrared emission and reception have been present already for some years, but the capture, use and application of sound in children’s games is a bit more recent. In order to assess and understand the far reaching potential of these additional sensors in our homes and environments it is essential to raise awareness through technical games and own experiences or experiments. Educational games are a useful addition to the repertoire of learning for younger generations. Accompanied learning is more likely to keep young people interested in technology and raise awareness for the potential of intrusion into privacy of technology as well. The robots will be more and more part of our daily lives. A better understanding of limitations and potentials will be necessary for all citizens in the 21st century.

Persistent beauty

The fashion industry is known for its fast turnover of beautiful designs from season to season. Some designs and often just single pieces survive the fast turnaround of the fashion industry. In many cities we find shops that sell so-called vintage cloths and objects. For men and women it is feasible to rediscover pieces of longer lasting beauty or even persistent beauty. The persistence of an image of beauty may follow the classics of designers and specific brands, but it may also have a very personal touch referring more to a person’s own life course (when we were young) or associated with freeing yourself from your family or societal context. The 60s and  70s were such time periods with radically changing images and ideas about beauty. Since then more individualised clothing seems to take hold, although there is an equally strong tendency of social or age groups to identify themselves through specific clothing, showing that you belong to the “in-group”.

Labour Day Berlin 2025

In 2025 Labour Day Parade in Berlin started again on Karl-Marx-Allee to the destination at the “Rotes Rathaus”, the red brick City Hall of Berlin. The slogan: “Mach dich stark mit uns” (engl. empower yourself with us) refers to the building up of force by members of the trade union movement in growing bigger again. Solidarity in crisis is currently tested again in each collective bargaining and negotiations at the local, sectoral, regional, national and European level. However, on the 1st of May the parade obviously has the political part with the speeches, but also the family party atmosphere towards the end at the Neptun fountain at Alexanderplatz. Large crowds come out in Berlin and the organizers of the DGB and the police do a great job to ensure a safe and enjoyable demonstration in the heart of Berlin. More impressions on the mobilizing event here. Images from Berlin Labour Day 2025.

Robot assistant

Adjustment processes on the labour market take their time. This means that care workers are in short supply in most countries of the OECD. Engineers as well. There are so many robots, care robots I mean, still to develop that the shortage of engineers give little hope that we shall have affordable solutions in this area for the next few years. The issue is mainly about integrating and enhancing already existing solutions. If you are a mechanical engineer you can put together motorised mechanical pieces, small motorised electric devices and, for example, small infrared emitting and receiving devises.
All this is child’s play these days (see image below). The assembling of a small Robot assistant that follows movements or can escape from a small labyrinth makes such simple structures transparent for learners and users. There is nothing magical about it, just adding together small pieces and the electronic devices to steer the movements. The learning tool from KOSMOS has been on the market for 5 years. It is a helpful device to explain basics through hands-on experience. The limits of robotics equally become more evident. Our own health and safety is concerned with larger devices cohabiting with us. A robot assistant can take on easy tasks like to follow me through my living space in old age carrying a mobile phone, keys or an emergency device. More sophisticated tasks need more sensors and AI to train the most needed and best routines. For many years this needs our input and our control as well as supervision of such devices. Most robots will operate as assistants with us in the driving seat or the boss.
This is yet another element of the “all electric society“. We are moving towards the use of more electronics assisting us from year to year.

Archi health

The links between architecture and human health are manifold. There are direct effects of healthy versus unhealthy materials in construction. For the purpose of making buildings fire proof or more resistant to heat asbestos had been used for decades which still causes health hazards nowadays in the removal of this cancerous material. Paint has to be chosen wisely as well as isolation materials. Indirect or second round effects of materials have to be considered additionally. Cement in construction uses a lot of energy in its production and has only been recycled since a few years in significant amounts. Room climate or even psychological effects of architecture have been considered to be important more seriously in recent years. A new discipline entitled “neuro-architecture” may be developed soon. Schools, sports facilities, hospitals or community centers benefit from healthy architecture. Cost benefit analyses which take into account long term effects and even recycling of materials shift the balance much in favor of health considerations also in architecture. “Fast and dirty” will be much more expensive than “slow and healthy”. Future generations will be thankful. (Image: Spreewald Primary school Berlin).

Archi Octagon

The architecture we see around us has lots of interesting mathematical features. Some are the basis for more complicated calculations. The octagon shape is not that common, but with some formulas the calculations become easier and construction in the real world is more feasible. Well worth to dig a bit deeper into this shape. The geometry of angles and circumference follows rules that have been laid out a long time ago. The webpages explaining this are manifold and it is a project of its own kind to compare them and recommend the best ones. My current favorite is: mathmonks. A reasonable choice is in most cases also wikipedia, the long running amazing knowledge project also for the octagon.

Image: Berlin Europa Center 2025.

Archi Geometry

Architecture has an obvious and visible link with geometry. Clear lines, rectangular or triangular shapes have dominated for centuries since the Greek temples. Geometry was a discipline that has attracted many scholars and particularly architects. Nowadays the shapes are much more diversified and sometimes complex. The calculation of surfaces, curved lines and shapes have become an issue of more complicated mathematics. Volumes of irregular shapes are a challenge for most people to calculate and heating or cooling sich buildings adds considerable complexity. It is, however, rather relaxing and fascinating to look at the marvels of modern shapes in architecture. Technology and material science have allowed us spectacular progress and designs in recent years. Paris offers a splendid perspective on such developments. 

Health Systems

Comparing health systems across the EU can be complex at times. However, there seems to be a consensus that the Irish health system is an oddity within the European health systems. On the one hand Ireland is a rather wealthy country in terms of GDP, but the primary care system excludes a high percentage of people from access to it. The scientific journal “The Lancet Regional Health” published a paper and comment on this rather unique exception to the rule to offer a universal health care system to its citizens. The controversy is about the coverage of costs of a visit to a general practitioner. More and probably earlier visits to a GP reduce the (over)burdening of
hospitals later during the life course. Prevention helps a great deal to lower overall costs of a health system.
The roots of the Irish health system have been built upon “subsidiarity”, which means that the public support system should only step in, if the individuals or families are unable to cover costs by themselves. Poor households had to apply for a card giving them access to medical care free of charge. Building hospitals was the next challenge and local communities managed to raise funds in support of such additional structures. In 2025 it can be very costly to enlarge the coverage to a universal access to primary care and the challenge to attract sufficient numbers of general practitioners is a very European one. In this respect Ireland is just like any other European country again.
The question of how to best achieve a universal health care system remains an important one. Apparently, you can be rather “health poor” in an otherwise “economically rich” country.

Marx Home

The home of an influential philosopher, economist and political scientist is not easily presented like a home of a musician, a composer or an author. However, the home of Karl Marx in Trier on the Moselle river succeeds to present the biographical links of growing up in a historic city, the bourgeois upbringing of the young Marx and his formation as an independent and even revolutionary thinker of the economy and society. In 2025 the home is a museum supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foudation with a great online guide and access to additional scientific material. For authors like Karl Marx it is always of interest to follow not only the origin and evolution of the thought process, but also the shifts in the reception of his writings by subsequent generations. This part of the exhibition and an audio guide (downloadable as App).

In 2025 with an apparently ruthless capitalism at work in the biggest economy of the globe, the reminder that the economy is best to be understood as a political economy, which focuses on self-interest and profitable business deals, we find in Karl Marx still a worthwhile reminder of economic development even in the 21st century. The note-taking and studies in Exile in London are well documented in the tiny home and museum. Studying the misery of exploitation in supply chains and international commerce remains a topic of continuing interest as well. 

Liszt home

In Budapest we can visit one of the longer living places of Franz Liszt or Ferenc Liszt as some Hungarians would insist to call him. The Beethoven trained Carl Czerny offered piano and music classes free of charge to the young Franz Liszt in Vienna at the age of 11. In the biography by Klára Hamburger she describes the Paris years of Liszt from 1823 until 1839 as the most important ones for the pianist and particularly for his later compositions. Born in Hungary, the son of 2 Austrian parents he was trained in Paris by amongst others the Czech professor of the Conservatoire de Paris Antonin Reicha just like Chopin, Flotow or Offenbach. Writing an opera was the “must do” for a composer who aimed for the highest possible career at the time. In a letter to George Sand, Liszt (published 1937) complained already about the social status of musicians in society as servants to the higher ranks of society. Similar to Ravel many years later Liszt was rejected as official scholar by the Conservatoire de Musique and his wish to marry a daughter of noble decent was rejected early in his career. Such experiences probably contributed to his leaning towards the romantic form of expressions in music during most of his compositions. Literature, paintings of the French romantic period and the traveling artist “voyages et pèlerinages” became influential in his creative process. The competition between composers must have been fierce at the time and despite ample opportunities to perform in public and private venues making a living from music wasn’t always easy at the beginning. More than 100 years after his death his compositions are still a challenge for all pianists and the Hungarian Rhapsodies probably his greatest homage to his early childhood.

Sovereignty of People

In France the judiciary has made an influential decision to ban a politician from the possibility to be elected after conviction of fraud. This is just what is to be expected from the 3rd power in the organization of a democratic state. It is surprising that there was a political debate about a person convicted for a crime to be eligible for public office. Several eminent scholars published columns in major newspapers to support the judicial decision. Pierre Rosanvallon focused both on the justification of the verdict and the constitutional role attributed to the judiciary to operate as a kind of memory of the “general will of the people”, the ultimate sovereign. In the struggle of power within a state the judiciary defends individual rights as well as moderates between the executive and the legislative branch. In the theory of democracy this creates a double bind situation in which the individual has a right to be defended against the state and individuals who ask for judgment of cases one against another one. Eric Halphen has also argued in favor of the often neglected role of the judiciary to stand up for the “general interest”, a notion which is not easy to define without historical references in each country and its historical trajectory of democracy. The short debate about the role of the judiciary has strengthened the defensive capacity of the French democracy. Other, even mature democracies may turn their eyes on the decision of the judges involved not to shun away from unpopular decisions. The independence of the judiciary is part of the sovereignty of the people and non-negotiable part of it.

Kids Gaming

The pressure on children and their parents is high to succumb to the temptation of digital and online gaming. Albeit there are many funny and learning alternatives for them if they are accompanied by an instructor to build or invent their own game. With some adaptations it is possible to assemble for example a coordination game for children which directs a small ball through a labyrinth. Add speed and tricky holes to the “parcour” and the race is on. It is little bit like hands-on physics as the speed and acceleration patterns across the parcour varies a lot. Planning, building and playing are an ensemble in this simple game. Probably also more fun than the x-th repetition of a digital game.

(Inspiration from: Berliner Kultur gestalten, workshops for children).

 

Reinforcement Learning

Education scientist have embraced the change of focus form a front loaded teaching format to a focus on the learning process of pupils or students. Computer scientists have adopted this strategy in shifting from just knowledge data bases and predictions of likely next words in a sentence or paragraph to learning models. Deep Seek has surprised most large language models by its successful strategy to focus on learning and reasoning. So-called reinforcement learning is key to the programming of next generation AI models. Reasoning in most cases builds on multiple step sequences in answering a more complex question. The model then returns the answer and the steps (reasoning) applied. There is a debate whether summaries or translations of texts would need the reasoning function of AI models. Most of the time reasoning might not be necessary or even counterproductive, if the translation would try to correct an obviously faulty reasoning in a text.

Maybe, imagine also that an ordinary LLM would translate a text containing fake news. A correction loop which involves a cross-checking with reliable external sources like any encyclopedia or wikipedia would complicate the answering procedure of any text. However, this is a bit how the process of reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) works. Reinforcement learning applies a form of accuracy reward, which guides the learning or answering process with checks against mathematical or programming accuracy. Just think of basic logic to be respected in the answer. Similarly, a formal accuracy control checks against mathematical models and ensures the answer is returning a text with a normal sentence structure or numbering of reasoning steps, an intro and concluding phrase, like we were all asked to do in school or universities. The amount of corrections from humans is reduced quite a lot and the computing resources are also only a fraction of the previous LLMs, which are retrieving answers from enormous databases or gigantic data factories consuming lots of energy in the processing of requests. Remember the movie on Kasparov, the world chess champion, who got beaten by a computer from IBM that did not only have a huge stock of previous games and tournaments, but could make judgments on positions and promising strategies to pursue. Don’t be surprised if a DeepSeek answer is superior to what our own mind and reasoning is capable of. Reinforcement learning is a learning tool, which we also may apply, if we deem it appropriate or just as one way of coming to an answer. (useful reference: Sebastian Raschka, Building a LLM from scratch, Manning). 

(Image, ChatGPT, 2 humanoid robots are thinking and discussing how to repair a notebook which is sitting on a workbench).

Housing renovation

The huge amount of buildings that need renovation is a task for each generation. New constructions are relatively easy to realize even to the best available standards. Particularly energy standards asking nowadays for serious isolation of buildings are easy starting from scratch. Energetic renovations of existing buildings are much more challenging and have to take into account the various stages or predilections of previous generations. Repurposing of buildings raise additional questions like transforming a family home into a representative office building. New technologies like fiberglass instead of copper cables or copper or plastic tubes instead of other hazardous materials cause additional costs and worries. The use of asbestos for interiors of previous generations has created the greatest liability for existing buildings. Technological choices of the past and also of the present (heat pump or not) have lasting consequences and sometimes even health effects. To cherish old buildings and styles is a mixed blessing as the renovation of housing confronts home renovators with more tricky challenges than building a new home. Incremental repairs might do the trick rather than all in one go renovation, however, you might enter into a situation when renovations are always on your mind. Not only the times are a changing, but homes are a changing, too.

Own Production

The 21st century has seen many innovations. Solar energy has been around for at least 3 decades now, but the wide spread application and adoption of it through consumers has taken quite a while. Nowadays you can buy a reasonably priced solar panel in your local shop selling gardening tools and home appliances. Solar panels have moved from a niche product to become an ordinary home enhancement product. Previously, the production of energy was highly regulated and restricted to business activities. Hence as producer and consumer of your own energy you became a “prosumer” of energy. Just refrain from selling the energy to your neighbors and you will be happy monitoring your own energy production and your energy consumption throughout the day as well. Suddenly, you might make a few behavioral adjustments to your daily routine. Throughout the day when the sun is shining bright you start to think of what kind of energy consumption you might want to switch on at the time. Charging mobile phones, cooking meals and washing are the obvious candidates that do the trick. Charging a battery of a bicycle(s) is also a good idea. The excursion of the evening or cycling to work the next few days is feasible with this as well. There is a slight danger to check the energy production frequently to optimize the return on your investment. In this case it might be expedient to invest also in a battery to store the energy  for a longer time. No stress for consuming your nuggets, but initial investment costs are substantially higher, albeit prices for batteries have come down significantly in the last few months. “Prosit prosumers”.

 

Biased Results

The use of statistics in presenting results of research is common practice. Empirical studies are summarized using statistics and statistical methods based on samples of bigger populations are cost efficient. However, care needs to be exercised when interpreting results to guard against inappropriate conclusions derived from biased estimates. Since the topic has been highlighted and methods proposed to handle them, these methods were deemed worthy of a Nobel prize.  The basic problem of a bias due to a selective sample has been demonstrated by Stockwell et al. (2024). The authors investigate the old question, whether a little bit of alcohol consumption (per day) could be beneficial for our health. The statistical issue which needs careful examination is the construction of the control group against which the results are compared. Apparently many studies have biased control groups which included persons in the not drinking control group who had stopped drinking for bad health previously. Compared to those persons with other health conditions those drinking a little bit compared rather well. But of course such individuals should not be present in a control group. Of the control group is biased due to many persons with below average health the groups of interest consuming higher levels of alcohol do not perform so badly. Hence, interpretation of results from medical or social science studies has to consider carefully the actual or potential sources of bias. Not really a new results in statistics, but still not well known or understood by the public at large. Drug consumption as well as studies of this consumption could deserve the same sticker: handle with care. (Image: Extract from Tenier II David, Les fumeurs, also entitled Chanson à boire, 17th century, Paris Petit Palais).

Sun power

Statistics of hours of sunshine in Germany and many European countries show an extraordinary amount of sunny days in March 2025 compared to previous years. This opens up a window of opportunity to produce electricity already in a month previously less likely to yield a lot of energy. With more likely 8 months of decent electricity production the efficiency of investments in solar energy reach break even points earlier. Time to think of expanding the share of renewable energy even further. The cost effectiveness is improving in rather unpredictable ways. Economists, of course, consider opportunity costs in this case the alternative to use oil or gas despite the higher levels of CO2 emissions. As the prices are currently lower as well, without an easily predictable trend, solar alternatives are a valid option.

Retirement Plans

There are debates about the best organization of retirement. The major fault lines lie between public pension systems and systems that are built based on mainly private provision. Retirement plans in either system are subject to constraints. The recent stock market turbulence has increased the amount of uncertainty people face who invested in 401K plans in the US. Some had to take an unannounced hit to their retirement savings due to the loss after Trump’s back and forth policies on tariffs (OECD Pension Outlook). High volatility of stock market prices creates an additional constraint that you are less inclined to retire when your retirement investments have overall a reduced value. You are a bit at the mercy of capital markets even in your retirement decision, irrespective of the difficulty to predict what your retirement funds will yield as returns. Quite an important lesson to keep in mind when comparing retirement systems in OECD countries. It has been all too easy to blame public pension systems for maybe lower short term interests on pension savings. Being subject to an American president concerning your retirement plans is probably not what many countries would like to have. Trump’s choices on tariffs may have consequences we did not expect to affect us so directly.

Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

Value destruction

The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset).

Time Horizon

For ages human time horizons have worked as a succession of generations. With substantial population aging we have many more families where we find 4 generations alive at the same time. In nature and with respect to biodiversity the sequences of renewable have not changed much. Old trees that have been cut will take another 100 years to grow old again. Wild fires or human negligence risk big in this respect. Forests take several human generations to grow and thrive. Diversity is key there as well as many fast growing monocultures have increased risks in case of fires caused by global warming. Annual inspection of a forest that suffered a severe drought and fires is still looking dismal compared to before. (Foret de Senart, France 2025).

Rich richer

The US economy under Biden had continued to make Americans richer. In an article by Talmon Joseph Smith in the New York Times from 2025-4-3 p. 7 the puzzle that Americans have grown richer, but don’t feel it, has been well explained. The large share of households owning their homes albeit with mortgages from low interest periods have witnessed their increased wealth. However, inflation is eating into their cash available for daily purchases. With another round of tariffs and additional inflationary pressure caused by those, the average person or household doesn’t fell much better off than some years ago. Economic anxiety and our preference for loss aversion or loss avoidance make us react with consumption restrictions to prepare for increased risks as well increased uncertainty about the directions of the whole economy and our very private wealth and consumption patterns. How and when the US economy will get back on track remains to be seen. Higher uncertainty usually reduces investments and with increasing interest rates again the economic recovery might be protracted. The NYT p.7 cites business owners with statements like “we’re not putting our foot on the brake, but we’re taking our foot off the gas.” Betrayel of working class people due to rising unemployment after 3 years of very low unemployment is likely to widen wealth gaps in the US population even further. The rich will get richer, but at high costs to the population as a whole. (Image: ceiling painting in Petit Palais, Paris).

Intimate housing

The housing of famous persons has always attracted a lasting fascination. The “esprit des lieux” or the experience of the surroundings of an artist, composer, author or otherwise famous person, where most of the work had taken place is of general interest. In today’s language we would describe this as the context of creation. Biographical information and references to specific objects central to the process of creation play a crucial role in understanding what is behind human creation as it is district from AI. There are objects ( compare MAD Paris) and there are the social networks of creators. Modern biographies include both, some even in graphic forms similar to ancestry diagrams. 

The design of intimate living spaces for private life or the adequate environment for creativity are becoming more clear with the consciousness of the importance of dedicated designs of furniture, accessories and even scent. Our brains are multimodal and working as well as processing lots of information even beyond our conscious realizations. This black box of creativity is rather unique to the human brain and AI will probably take decades to emulate such complex processing. The MAD exhibition reveals that intimacy is also related to housing design and interior design. It doesn’t seem to be a random process, but habituation is part of the continued creative process.