Tag: international

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Future Conflicts

Since 2014-2-27 Russia has occupied the Crimean peninsula. This invasion had started with an undercover mission of unmarked soldiers to take full control of Crimea about 3 weeks later. Russia did not officially declare a war, although the intentions were identical to a land grabbing war. The western world did not react much to this violation of international law. Apparently, this contributed to the next cynical “special operation” by the Russian army to fully invade Ukraine on 2022-2-24 in a failed “Blitzkrieg”, a rapid invasion, which attempted and failed to annex the whole of Ukraine. According to Lissner & Warden (2026) the Russian invasion of Ukraine bears 4 lessons for future conflicts: (1) the risk of using nuclear weapons is real, (2) in addition to nuclear options, prolonged and very destructive conventional wars remain an option, (3) escalation thresholds emerge and evolve over the duration of the conflict, (4) allies and partners in war keep adjusting their risk tolerance as well as escalation options. The authors argue from a US perspective and add a practical comment: “The USA cannot go this alone, but should coordinate closely with allies and partners in time before another conflict arises. Multilateralism seems a valid option and even more so as we move into a multipolar power play on the global scale propelled by AI.

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Peace and war again

“If you want peace, prepare for war”. This is one of the famous citations from Vegetius an early Roman general. For centuries we have been aware that peace and war are not opposites in a broader sense. Preparation for war can resemble war, if a country’s economy is already heavily turning towards production of weapons and intensifies research in dual use technologies. Political terminologies that shift to a vocabulary using more belligerent language may also be interpreted as a early signs of a shift in balance between peace and and early warnings on war. 4 years of the war of Russia on Ukraine territory have left traces in our vocabulary as well as budgets devoted to the preparation of a defense in Europe.
More countries of the EU state openly what is in their “national interest”, as if they were ready to go to war (Charap & Haukkala 2026) to in case major elements of the national interest were endangered. In going back to Clausewitz’s writing, a long historical line can be drawn from the Crimean War(s) to Putin’s imperialist war of 2014 and 2022 trying to capture Ukrainian territory, irrespective of enormous human losses.
Another lesson from these historical events might be: Let’s not forget to prepare for peace during the hot conflict.

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External-Internal Threat

In a time perspective of at least since the German unification of 1990, we have to reconsider the perception of what constitutes an external versus an internal threat. Prior to the implosion of the Soviet Union and the Glasnost years, the external Russian threat has been transformed across the globe into more hybrid threats coming from internal forces which have been “instrumentalized” by external forces. In an essay by Valentine Faure (Le Monde 2026-2-21) this twist to internal politics has been described as a form of new forms of interference of external forces into European internal political, economic and social affairs. In fact the basic strategy is as old as the famous Trojan horse, but the strategy has been refined and to work over much longer time spans as well as in other scientific applications. Any form of powerful, interested party would rather use the soft power of persuasion than brutal force to reach political objectives. Corruption and buying votes, directly or indirectly, has become a legitimate way in this hybrid or open use of power from the inside of a society than through a more traditional external affairs strategy. The confrontation of the bipolar world made it easy to put emphasis on external military power. A multilateral as well as more multilayered international political arena precludes to some extent the bipolar confrontation as conflicts on several frontiers  increases risks exponentially. In search of other strategies it seems plausible to turn to hybrid as well as disguised external force. Europe and democratic systems in general are more vulnerable than autocratic states, because the belief in an open form of society is part of its DNA. Open societies shall have to sharpen their sensory systems to transformed external to internal threats.

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EU Presidencies Review

There is a turnover at the EU presidency every 6 months. A full cycle of all presidencies takes 13 and a half years as each presidency lasts the same length irrespective of country size. CY 2026 is the current one, where CY does not only stand for “see you” in smartphone slang, but for Cyprus in 2026. The procedure to determine a working program for the Council presidency is well established and unresolved matters keep coming back in regular time intervals. The big overarching topic in 2026 is EU autonomy facing up to new challenges of the multilateral world. In the EU presidencies small countries can showcase their concerns and demonstrate what their preferred topics and proposals of solutions are. It is also a chance to make people aware of why they have been eager to join a political, cultural and economic union in the first place. Already in the founding documents the issue of security and defense were addressed. They are again on the top of the agenda in the enlarged EU. The multi-ethnic and multi- religious experience of Cyprus, a country that has lived through multiple strategic dominations over centuries, can probably teach us a lot about how difficult it is to be autonomous if other more powerful countries have put an eye on your territory. Choose your allies wisely. (Image: exhibits Cyprus at BNF 2026, CY2026EU) 

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Multilateral world

In the relatively brave new world of 21st century, it is not only a question of how the super powers like the USA, China and Russia shall push their strategic goals, but also what role so-called „Middle Powers“ will play. Europe and the European Union will have to make up their minds, whether they want to belong to one or the group, individually or jointly. New as well as shifting alliances seem to be a realistic scenario. Coalitions of middle powers will be effective counterparts to the threat of domination by a single or joint brutal force of superpowers. The power of interference of middle powers in the confrontation of superpowers is considerably higher if they were to collaborate more effectively than with each of the superpowers previously in a simple 2 opponents game of chess, much more familiar to us so far. (Image: Game of chess with 4, 5 or 6 players on the same board, here adapted from chessboard for 4 players, source: greenchess.net webpage)

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Timely timeless

It is very timely to discuss timelessness. Some inventions or artwork appear to have a timeless value. The creation of books has this feature as we have known also a lot about the conservation and restoration of books across centuries. Timelessness is about an open-ended vision of time. In mathematics it is a usual part of the differential equations‘ calculus to handle infinity as an operationalisation or a form of a projection of time into timelessness. Humans have made considerable efforts to create material and, most of all, immaterial goods which try to exist independently from time. Geek or Roman philosophy are with us for more than 2000 years and we still benefit from returning to this original concepts. Egyptian culture and the wall paintings in caves still speak to us, thousands of years afterwards. Each clock suggests that time is advancing, but some treasures achieve the level of a timeless beauty, art or conceptual masterpiece. The more we talk about time, the more we shall cherish timelessness. (Image: Neue Nationalgalerie, Berlin 2026-1, The clock screening)

 

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Between micro and de-facto state

In political science we distinguish between small, micro-states and territories or regions that are defined as de-facto states. Björn Boman (2025) has put the wealthy states of Monaco, Lichtenstein and San Marino into the micro-states category. On the contrary, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donetsk and Luhansk fall under the label of de-facto states with more controlled access as well as under Russian influence using brutal force to control the zone of Russian influence. Due to its size Ukraine as a whole has been able to resist the Russian forces to be degraded to a de-facto state only. The military and technical ingenuity of a well educated workforce allowed the Ukraine leadership to not only counter the Russian invasion, but also to mobilize enormous support from western democracies in form of weapons, financial and humanitarian assistance including millions of refugees over the last 4 years. Size of territory has entered the equation or balance whether to belong to a the micro- or de-facto state category. In the new multipolar international political arena “the sovereign state” has become a more hybrid concept as well. Micro-states have handled the difference between full internal sovereignty and only partial external sovereignty already for years, the new multipolar international arena is being transformed rapidly in this direction. Choose your camp or align with a sufficient number of countries to form an internal and external sovereign area.

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Utopian Antifascists

Next to the exhibition on “Global Fascism” in Berlin in 2025-12 there was a banner on the wall, which stated “Antifascism as Utopia” (see image below). This statement invites the question, whether an antithesis can serve as a positive utopian idea guiding large numbers of people. It is certainly necessary that all people who subscribe to democratic principles and human values should be able to unite under the banner of antifascism, but the ways to pursue this goal are manifold. This makes the claim of an utopian objective a bit more obvious and, at the same time, more plausible as a potentially overarching objective. The statement might well turn out to be the defining statement or key visual of the year 2026 with rising nationalist and in some places also fascist ideas and rhetoric. Thoughts and words might be only precursors of more such actions in the coming months. 

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Communist Utopia

Putin has not only killed thousands of his own people, but he he has also killed the communists’ utopia of a better world and future, if only private property would be replaced by a top down, one party rule of a leadership that pretends to act on behalf of the people. Young Russians have little choice than to follow orders, learn how to bribe superiors not to be sent to the killing fields or be sanctioned. Putin has put an end to the ideas of Glasnost and Perestroika in Russia and utopian ideas about communism as well. He must have sensed it during his time in Eastern Germany that without brutality the Soviet union will not survive for long. As soon as he came back to Russia he prepared the shameless abuse of his power and ideas about a law-based socialist system in favor of the return of the military state. Borders are for those who believe in a rule-based international legal system. Changed to this international legal framework are hard to believe by European nations, but have to be accepted as a new form of “Realpolitik” in the international arena. (Image: Graffiti in Brussels Mont des Arts 2022-3-1) 

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Peak Refugees

The number of refugees in the world has stabilized at a very high level. According to the data from the UN Refugee agency (UNHCR) until mid 2025 the number stands at 36.6 million people. With slight decreases in the last 2 years, the challenges remain at a high level. The 10 top countries hosting the largest numbers of refugees are Iran, Turkey, Columbia, Germany, Uganda, Pakistan, Chad, Peru, Poland and Ethiopia (compare Fig 4 of report). It is particularly remarkable that this list of countries is relatively little associated with a country’s level of average income. Humanitarian concerns and being a neighboring country play an important role. We all hope that we have witnessed peak refugees and that an assisted and safe return will be a feasible option for many of them eventually. Although we know that many people suffer from authoritarian regimes and, for many years, don’t have a return option in sight. (Image: Documentation Center on refugees in Berlin) 

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mAga mEga mIga mOga mUga

Just take all the vowels of the Latin alphabet and the absurdity of the MAGA saga becomes evident. If other states would start to claim like the US under President Trump to make X great again, the world would soon fall into disaster. Let us go through the hypothetical cases like MEGA, make Europe, England or Ethiopia great again. Go back to colonial imperialism? Certainly not. How about make Israel, Indonesia or India great again? Well, that would alarm neighbors, just as much as make Osmania, Oman great again. With the potential of Russia getting its way to keep illegal possession of parts of Ukraine, make Ukraine great again spells continued trouble on the European continent. Once MAGA mania has been unleashed, it is difficult to get the spirit back into the bottle and close it firmly again. Return of brute force rather than diplomatic exchanges become the rule. A return to rule based international politics in a multilateral context needs to be reclaimed by the vast majority of states that have an interest in lasting peace without expansionist views.  (Image from: “The beast is dead”)

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Robotics Hype 2026

Towards the end of 2025, it is common practice to look back on the last 12 months to summarize a year and to contribute to the “collective memory” of the year. From a “society and technology” perspective we shall not be surprised if such summaries will be full of images and praise of AI and robotics. However, large parts of the innovations that shall be declared to have marked 2025 were already around 10 years ago. It is just the timing for the new momentum and the creation of a hype around these technologies that is really remarkable (compare WSJ 2025-11-24 p 1-2 by Konrad Putzier).
It is true, playing around with robotics was reserved to universities, research institutes and some big players in industry. The public and financial markets showed little interest in these “nerdy” fields of applications. Although we were hardly able to compete with our chess computers, Watson solving math problems for us including the steps for us to follow. Video, image and textual support was provided by specialized applications already at high levels and in multilingual versions. In 2025 these techniques have enhanced with machine learning and neural network programming reaching higher speed and being able to use ever larger data sets as input.
But there are areas where the hype is coming to an end. How about all the artificial reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) applications? Many have seized to exist. Have you visited or invested in “Second Life” platforms? Opened a shop in the VR-world? Bitcoins have lost 7% of their value between 1.1.2025 and 24.11.2025 and they suffer still from high volatility rather than an uninterrupted rise.
War has fuelled the rise of shares in 2025 and “dual-use” technology benefits as well. AI has been driven by, and drives both trends.
In sum, it is much less the technological innovations in 2025 that are astonishing, but the political economy of how to orchestrate a sensational hype around the technologies.
(Image Hannover Industry Fair 2016-3-14).

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Dynamic Equilibrium

The notion of a dynamic equilibrium is applied in several scientific disciplines. The search of the world wide web takes us first to the application in chemistry. The dynamic equilibrium denotes the state when reactants and products are continuously converted. Fascinating as a process, there are videos where you can watch the process evolve. Applications in economic or social theory are also common even if the time scales to observe such processes of dynamic equilibrium usually take longer to evolve than in chemistry of bubbles. In physics we ponder about dynamic equilibria in Newton’s view of gravitational forces between planets and the celestial system. With a more down to earth approach we might just admire the dynamic equilibrium of an artist on a rope, before we dive into the complex challenges of the new balance of power in international politics of the multipolar world. 

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Weaponized Interdependence

The shift in the international political system is clearly expressed in the contribution by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman in “Foreign Affairs” (2025 (Nr. 5) p.25). “… governments must navigate a terrain with many more players, figuring out how to redirect private-sector supply chains in directions that do not hurt themselves while anticipating the responses of a multitude of governmental and nongovernmental actors.”
As the number of bigger global players increases, the complexity to identify best strategies increases as well. Going it alone is only second best to coordinated actions. New matches of interests may result in the medium term. This could entail enormous long term realignments.
Russia attempted to play the China, and subsequently the India, card to achieve new strategic partnerships in this multipolar world. Other international players test new forms of alliances and strategies (like hybrid wars) in this period of weaponized interdependence as well.
The weaponization of such interdependencies puts critical limits to the basic economic rationale and a world building on comparative advantages together with trade, rather than going it all alone or try the coercive way of exploiting dependencies of mineral resources, supply chains, computing power and AI.
(Image: Chess figures attributed to Charlemagne, dating from 1080-1100 ” BNF Galerie Mazarin 2025-10)

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Korean Independence

The independence of a country is sometimes a long struggle. At particular points in time, a window of opportunity may open up, which allows to change the course of history. In many cases the opportunity to gain independence has been prepared for several decades, at least from 1919 onwards to come to fruition only after the end of the Pacific war, shortly after the Nazi-regime was defeated. The long and relentless preparation of the Korean Provisional Government ensured that a consensual constitution was ready to be adopted and elections to be held. The resulting division of Korea into 2 parts (South and North), just like East and West Germany, is rather long lived on historical time scales. For that matter, the hope of a peaceful unification needs to be reiterated again and again. The informative exhibition of the Korean Cultural Center to Belgium and the EU highlights the continued “Dream of Peace” which continues even after more than 100 years.

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Dépaysé in gallery

The installation ar the Neue Nationalgalerie in Berlin entitled „Fog Sculpture“ takes us from the sculpture garden of the Gallery into a tropical forest atmosphere. Just changing the humidity and visibility through the artificial production of fog transforms the perception of the artworks. A kind of Asian flair surrounds the western sculptures in the garden. The fog installs also a mystification whoch we know in art from the romantic painters like Caspar David Friedrich for example. All long-term followers shall appreciate the new perception of the artworks thanks to Fujiko Nakayo. It’s definitely more than old wine in new bottles. The artwork brings a more global twist to the preexisting sculptures and reminds us in Berlin even of the wrapping and unwrapping of the  Reichstag building by Jeanne-Claude Christo. We see the sculptures or architecture differently after they disappeared temporarily and reappear again.

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Art from India

Indian music, art and performances have had a difficult time in traditional western cultures. Based on the historical collections and donations in the BNF, this WEIRD bias is challenged a bit. The focus on performances and art from India of centuries old traditions of high standards could have been a major source of inspiration to wider audiences already. The narrative language of for example dance as Bharatanatyam is a sophisticated ritual of expression. It appears to us like a spiritual performance which reaches our emotions much like our modern ways of expressing and performing. It seems amazing how the western world has omitted looking and listening to other continents. 

Of course, archers have played an important role in Indian culture as well. Such depictions have been common across cultures in previous times. These images can reflect the shared human heritage and this with a global perspective on art history. Flora Willson (2024 in Die Musikforschung) refers to this Indian cultural heritage in her book review and why Italian Opera never really became popular in India. 

(Image BNF, Paris Richelieu in Rotonde 2025).

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Bilingual Plus not WEIRD

The scientific literature on bilingual learning and living experience is abundant. Positive cognitive and social inclusion effects dominate the results. The scientific research has moved on to more tricky questions of bilingualism which shifts gear to multilingual learning. Many people and children are bilingual plus additional contacts to another or several other languages. Multilinguism has been of interest for several scientific disciplines. The effects on cognitive development have received a lot of attention. In order to achieve further progress in the study of multilingual development, it is instructive to move beyond bilingualism and the WEIRD particiants in most psychological studies (WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic). The paper by Omane, Benders & Boll-Avetisyan (DOI) takes this as a starting point and investigates the experience of infants with 2-6 languages.
They establish a protocol how to record the surrounding languages in a structured way. A major distinction into direct and indirect exposure to languages is a major finding. The example from Ghana provides a useful basis for other studies of multilingual experiences. A correct recording of different language inputs in time and of the sources is at the basis for later measurements of effects of different kinds of exposure and intensity of exposure.
(Image: Children’s room in Berlin Museum Martin Gropius Bau 2025)

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Insecurity Council

The UN Security Council has been turned into the Insecurity Council. The UN Plenary Session voted with a 2/3 majority on 2025-2-24 the draft Resolution L.10 stating: “Three years after the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the General Assembly today adopted two resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity …”. As part of this resolution the UN General Assembly claims “accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine …”.
The UN Insecurity Council (15 Members, China, USA Russia, F, UK as permanent Members) adopted  almost in parallel with 10 votes in favor and 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom) resolution 2774 (2025) calling for a swift end to conflict. The most notable change in international politics is the changed voting behavior of the USA, which has retreated from an outspoken condemnation of Russia as aggressor and occupant of foreign territory.
The “revealing of masks” in what appears to be a neo-imperialist period of time has come. The set-up of the post  1945 UN institution of the Security Council has lost a major function to prevent armed conflicts and early reaction potential. The force to aim for and guarantee international peace lies much more in the hand of the plenary of the UN rather than the small select Security Council dominated by previous superpowers largely due to their possession of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
The voting of a resolution by the Insecurity Council, which is in contradiction with a resolution of the UN General Assembly concerning the spirit, if not the words, is a source of insecurity itself. A reform of the UN system, which risks to become a “shopping system” of lenient organizations, where you join and leave the organization (UNESCO, WHO, WTO …) will loose impact.
For many people and countries, the only hope for a guarantee of human rights lies with the United Nations Human Rights Charter, peace keeping missions and International Courts. The UN Security Council as an Insecurity Council is likely to let down many people truly seeking a peaceful life.
(Image: The Fall of Icarus, Pablo Picasso, at HQ UNESCO, Paris)

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More BRICS

The move towards a multipolar world order is in full swing. With the USA retreating from a primordial international role discarding UN institutions and the defense of major elements in the fight for individual freedom, the diplomatic order of the last 80 years has changed. The liberation of the concentration camps in Germany and the 80 years of the end of the 2nd World War on 1945-5-9 had forged an alliance in which the common enemy was defeated and the the next major confrontation in Europe or on the globe had to be warded against. 

The evolution of peace in Europe has been marked by the Cold War and a bipolar world order which confronted the USA and Russia at various places. The rollback of Russia has seen its high time with the Northern and Eastern extension of the EU and NATO. This goal of US strategic interests has been largely accomplished. 

In the shadow of this bipolar relationship the BRICS have moved towards greater economic power and therefore influence in the international arena. Economic data on the biggest economies in the world over the last years show the rise of the BRICS, bit mainly China and India. Their population sizes create enormous and largely shut off internal markets. All these developments create new challenges to the previously relatively stable world order. Technological advances have been narrowing more rapidly than before since the access to the best available knowledge spreads fast and more equally across the globe through the internet. 

The ugly face pf imperialism is returning front stage and attempts to change the previous versions of imperialism into a new hegemonic world oder. Updated views of economic power and influence zones let us look with a rational perspective on the new power play. Due to the containment of Russian influence, the USA has China as the major power to confront, a major shift as of the 2020s. The China-driven Silk road project with strategic landing points across the globe has „trumped“ American efforts to align BRICS to human rights values over the last decades. European diplomacy will have to recognize that we entered another phase of „Realpolitik“ due to major economic shifts over several decades. (Image: extract from Max Klinger, The walkers, ambush, 1878 in Berlin SPK).

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Revealing masks

Masks can have multiple functions. During the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 onwards we developed a hate-love relationship to wearing masks. Carnival traditions give wearing masks yet another touch. The painter James Ensor added other meanings to a mask. They do not disguise the person wearing them, but might make otherwise difficult to see features of a personality more visible. In a donation initiative and auction to raise funds to fight cancer Yves Delplace made the biggest contribution through his donation of the painting „Intrigue année 2024. Le preneur de selfie”  of which we represent only a partial extract below. In 2025 this depiction of 3 leaders of big countries has gained unexpected relevance. The US and Russia partying jointly while people still die on the  battlefield die to Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine has been turned into a cynic depiction. James Ensor and the surrealists in general would have appreciated this application of their way to deal with or foreshadow coming events. For some people you think it is about time to take off their masks or somebody to take it off. For others like Putin, the friendly looking mask has become apparently a frozen expression despite of the underlying ruthlessness.

Image taken at KBR Brussels 2024 exhibition of donations for auction and jury awards, by YvesDelplace.

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Space Missions

As we realize that critical infrastructure on earth is not safe in times of military conflict, space missions have become an additional form of competition between countries, continents and alliances. India has accomplished in January 2025 the coupling of 2 space satellites. The level of technological knowledge to achieve the coupling and decoupling of satellites included among other competences the mastering of algorithms that control sensors and propulsion. Beyond the communication cables on earth, satellites can assure telecommunication services, if other networks are interrupted.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISPO) has announced the successful “space docking experiment” (SpaDeX) and joins the other 3 countries US., Russia and China as the 4th country to achieve this. The race in space and to space beyond earthly competition shifts attention also to the additional category of a race to technological innovation and applications of those. Since the war of Russia in Ukraine we know about the “dual use” factor (civil and military) of satellite technology. Satellite images of your own country are helpful in many respects ranging from weather forecasts, rain, draughts and habitat changes or population movements. Early warnings of flooding are surely important civil applications. Movements of military equipment by potential enemies are much needed early information, which increases warning time spans. With more satellites in space the good as well as the dangerous potential is expanding. Sovereignty in the 21st century certainly has a technological dimension. Therefore, the demonstration of satellite coupling in space accomplishes not only a dual use achievement, but also fulfils a triple use or ambition. The 3rd one is political. Hey, look we are also watching you, or might do so.
(Image: Robert Indiana “Imperial Love” 1966/2006 in Berlin Neue Nationalgalerie)

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Indigenisation

In reading up on the « all electric society » it is useful to see what the international market has to offer in innovation of electronics, but also to understand the potential of mass production. In this little research the came across the „Electronics for you magazine“ (LINK) from India is a great source. Trends of miniaturization of electronics and power savings for consumer products as well as some high tech space and wave technologies receive systematic coverage. 

The November issue 2024 (p. 63) used the term „ Indigenisation“ to refer to the process of a country’s own technological development to ensure independence from being cut off from advanced technologies. Producing in India for Indian use seems to be an answer to economic and technological risks. India‘s space exploration program builds on own supply for civil and probably military purposes as well. Indigenisation of production, therefore, is an adequate term for own indigenous production of specific advanced components. 

Contrary to the trend of globalization, which dominated the 2nd half of the last century, „Indigenisation“ is likely to dominate numerous sectors of the economy in the coming years. Made in India is, of course, a brand. Small countries might find indigenisation more difficult to achieve. It needs to be checked, whether indigenisation or „self-reliance“ (Atmanirhbar Bharat) implies plural societies and identities to the same extent.

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More Battles

In 2025 we continue with the same battles as in the previous year. However, the way armies fight military battles has evolved. New types of weapons like drones have entered the stage. These precision weapons (Horowitz, 2024) have the advantage to be not only less costly than other heavy mass and costly artillery, they can also be guided in swarms to their targets. A further advantage is the steering of drones needs differently qualified persons rather than advancing with heavy armored vehicles on battlefields. Upskilling of defense forces is an important side effect. Jamming technology of radio frequencies was applied before, nowadays this has turned into a crucial defense strategy to intercept and derail drones and rockets off their intended targets.
Other than heavy weight arms, even laser beams enter the arsenal of weapons, if targets are sufficiently static in nature. These high-energy beams are still more in the research and testing realm rather than used on the battle field, but it becomes clear that research capacities play and played an important role throughout military history. The next generation of robots, not only in production processes, but more those walking on the battlefields is likely to change wars to less manned interventions. The technological innovations shall further move the spiral of new generations of weapons forward. Fewer soldiers, but more robots in the air, at sea and on the ground might increase the risks of “restrained”, less costly, but longer duration conflicts across the globe.
I always thought of robots as rescue robots to save lives. The flip side of the coin, however, is destruction before rescue as well. Technology can be put to both purposes. It is us who decide, which one takes the upper hand.

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Reconciliation

European history is a long history of atrocities committed against humanity. The Documentation Centre for Displacement, Expulsion, Reconciliation in Berlin (Image below) captures this history in a comprehensive manner. We are quickly overwhelmed by this weight of history and the implications this has for the understanding of the people on the globe. This relatively new learning centre has, beyond the memorable permanent and temporary exhibitions, a room of silence to recover from the hard work of remembrance, always in view of reconciliation.
The library allows personal search and research of migration documents and biographies. All centuries have their history of displacements, but the Nazi terror surpassed all prior records and forced millions into displacement or death. We are still working on this heritage and the enlightenment of how these atrocities could take place. Full consciousness of the terror and horror of the 30s and 40s is necessary to guard against the many attempts to falsify historical events or discard the sorrow of millions of people and their families.
Reconciliation remains a continuous challenge. A large part of diplomacy has to deal with reconciliation beyond concerns of daily affairs. It is not just a matter for head of states and days-off during a year. Stillness helps to deal with the challenge, especially if it is very difficult to find adequate words.

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On Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a catchword for all sorts of undetermined occurrences, which we might have to confront. We associate economic uncertainty with the difficulty to forecast or predict the economic evolution of key indicators like inflation, GDP, CO2-emissions, energy and raw materials’ prices and availability. Even factors like increases in greed of CEOs, psychological factors like insecurity about external or internal conflicts drive these macroeconomic indicators. Micro-level features of your own stage or evolution of the life course have an impact on and will be affected by uncertainty. Employment, housing, family, or household composition are subject to high levels of uncertainty. These micro- and macro- level factors are, of course, not limited to the domain of economic phenomena. Most recently, political uncertainty has reentered the international and national sphere with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This election outcome of the U.S. is perceived by many as increasing the overall uncertainty due to the unpredictability of political decisions and even previous treaties with the U.S. or where the U.S. is a major partner in the agreement. These economic and political uncertainties are accompanied with a perception of growing legal uncertainty even in very personal spheres of life. Last, but not least uncertainty about climate changes like heating up of the planet and more devastating flooding and droughts contribute to increased uncertainty about future developments and the need to initiate adjustment processes and the financing of those.
The individual and societal ways to cope with increased uncertainty are one of the major economic, political, legal and social issues for the coming years. The answers are likely to be found in mutual, cooperative and risk sharing arrangements. The social in society will be a major part of dealing with increased uncertainty. (Image: Extrait of Paul Klee, Seiltänzer 1923)

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Commemoration

In The month of November we commemorate those who died and particularly all those who died in the combat for freedom and democracy. The Russian aggression does not show many signs of ending the killing of soldiers and civilians on both sides. Ukrainian forces struggle to resist the Russian occupation of its territory as Russia is sacrificing thousands of lives for small gains of territory it is unlikely to defend in the coming months if Ukraine possesses longer reach weapons. A new spiral of an apocalypse is most probably the result of the Russian insistence on external aggression to cover up more internal problems. A lost generation of young soldiers who died in combat or suffered mutilation will be the outcome of these atrocities. The inflationary effects of wheat and energy prices globally have caused additional casualties in countries that had absolutely no stakes in this war. Russia is to blame for those additional casualties as well as the adverse effects on the world‘s climate due to the fighting and destroyed materials that need replacing later on. The young Russian generation will have to stand up against Putin‘s call to war and put down their weapons. This is one way to end the spiral toward yet another apocalyptic experience in Europe and the silent killing through hunger beyond Europe. (Image: BNF Paris, Apocalypses 2024)

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Smart Cars

Technology of cars and in cars has evolved rapidly with the move towards the smart cars. Smart cars are characterized by many additional sensors, almost permanent connectivity to the producer’s software platform, the internet, autonomous driving capability or, potentially, remote control. We might still curse some nostalgic feelings of being in driving seat, but the supervision of our capability to drive and monitoring of behavior has reached impressive levels of perfection beyond the fasten your seatbelt sign and alarm. The software that is driving our cars has become the challenge of the coming years and with this the concern for data privacy and cyber security. Smart cars have multiple cameras to guide driving and parking effectively. These cameras are also a perfect spy even around or in your home. From our smartphones we all know the scanning of connectable Bluetooth devices or wlan nearby. Smart cars are powerful assistants in data collection sometimes even beyond your control, for example who these data are sent to. June Yoon (2024-10-2 Financial Times) has developed this rationale even further to stir up additional fears: “A hacked self-driving car might even be turned into a weapon”. The weaponization of beepers, talky-walkies is certainly not the last step in this process of potential dangers of technology. Smart cars come with additional risks, not only additional comfort. Better choose your rollercoaster wisely.

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Ukraine Chess

Strategies in Chess, sometimes, inform strategic behavior in wars. In chess there are clear definitions of 2 opponents and their material. Modern warfare has blurred both elements. Opposing parties build alliances and the material allowed or available is hotly debated as well. The war of Russia on Ukraine territory, nevertheless, resembles a variant of a chess game considering the different stages of the game. All starts with Russia choosing its opening attacks. A rather aggressive version of the opening is the King’s Gambit in which a fast attack tries to overwhelm the opponent. Ukraine, because of the surprise and lack of immediate support from neighboring countries, chose a careful defense trying to hold the lines amid a fast forward moving assault. A further restriction for Ukraine was to not use weapons from supporters on Russian territory. In chess this would mean your defense is not allowed to cross the middle line of the chessboard. For example the so-called Sicilian defense does exactly this for many moves of the opening. However, in the middle game this changes and the defense might prepare forceful attacks based on a solid defense. With 2 and 1/2 years into the war the opening has played out and we see middle game strategies take the upper hand. In chess this consist in attempts to gain material advantage, possession of strategically important positions and psychological stamina to mention a few. The middle game can drag out for a long time, especially if a balance of power persists. Even in an unbalanced situation peacemaking takes time as well. In any case, during the opening phase the “Sicilian” defense can handle a defense that is restricted to “own half” of the chessboard, but in the middle phase such a restriction is an even more severe impediment. Relaxing this imposed restriction by supporters opens up additional possibilities for the defense as well as counter strikes. (Image: Shredder Chess App White opens with Kings Gambit and Black answers with Sicilian defense)

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International Geometry

Geometric forms sometimes serve to make international affairs more transparent or descriptive. The Weimar triangle is such a formula, which helps to show the links between states. In the journal “Le Monde” of 2024-9-13 an interview with Radoslaw Sikorski reflects the shifting side lengths and military weights within this triangle. The Polish Minister of foreign affairs points at the threats from Russia to violate the air space of Poland and the legitimacy of Poland and the Ukraine, of course, to defend its air space and territorial sovereignty. The guarantee of international law, however, is heavily dependent upon adequate international geometry beyond the Weimar triangle. The meeting with a representative of the Pentagon (US) enlarges the scope of the triangle.

Talking about the reach of missiles in defense is yet another exercise in geometry as this depends on starting and supposed, or reachable, end points. The use of GPS-signals in civilian and military applications is another example of how geometry is ruling our modern lives. Let’s embrace it, rather than shun away from the geometry behind it. (Image Exhibition room at Wiels Art Centre, Brussels 2023).