technology – Schoemann

29/04/202628/04/2026

AI data Input

If you ever wondered where the information from AI and AI chatbots comes from, you will not be surprised that this webpage schoemann.org is regularly solicited for such purposes. The number of crawlers, that do so, is quite large. The ability to trace what exactly they are harvesting on your website, is quite a tricky issue. At least a basic awareness of how the internet has been transformed in the last few years becomes evident through the comparison of unique visits, many through search engines like Google search or others, with the amount of contacts by AI-associated crawlers (see slide from own webpage below).
During he last month up to 2026-4-27 there were about 75.000 contacts, compared to 93.000 during the previous month.
At first sight, AI chatbots have largely outnumbered the “personal visits” of my webpage (see evaluate web analytics). On the other hand, I have no information of how many visits are, (at least potentially) re-directed hints from AI chatbots to my content.
In terms of “traffic” for a webpage, the information of how the AI-driven or AI-assisted search operates with other persons’ contributions will be the challenge of the coming years. If AI chatbots had to pay 10 cents per visit, I would have a comfortable pay every month from this content use. The issue of AI paying for access to reliable and high quality content has to be dealt with sooner rather than later. You may prompt a chatbot on this issue.
Meanwhile: My New Book on AI is out Now 2026-4-28:
“AI and Social Science: Potentials versus Limitations” by Dr. Klaus Schoemann, online reading and free download (here) before implementation of Paywall later on.

26/04/202624/04/2026

Autonomous Robot

We have been used to computers beating the average chess player and even the best players. In 2026-4 the journal “Nature” published the documentation of an autonomous robot (Ace) winning the occasional game against top-level Japanese table tennis players. Peter Dürr et al. (2026) described the robotics challenge as constructing a robot that can match the human capability and reaction time of “fast, precise and adversarial interactions near obstacles”. The high speed perception of movement is coupled with event-based vision and builds on AI-algorithms like reinforcement learning. The step ahead is remarkable.
About 50 years ago, as coach in table tennis we used a machine or robot throwing balls towards us which moved from left to right in timed routine, for example. These simple robots we used to train humans. Now the robot is reactive and even interactive, learning from strategies and tactical moves. Technology can outperform us in most singular tasks in 2026. The combination of several of these skills is still quite unique to humans, but the clock is ticking for human singularity in technical matters. What was considered a “false good idea” in the Paris exhibition “Flops” at the Musée Arts et Metiers (see image below), might be an interesting response to challenge the new generation of autonomous robots.

22/04/202621/04/2026

Agentic AI Gardening

The use of AI is probably most popular for professional purposes as efficiency and economic productivity are major concerns in these fields of applications. Another whole lot of applications is rapidly developing as well, which is Agentic AI in hobbies like gardening. The use of IT in gardening has previously been reserved to landscape designers and maybe urban to rural planners. Cheap access to AI on a test basis or within your browser has widened access to computer and AI assistance for gardening purposes. Colorful designs and selection of species to enrich biodiversity are widely available now. The next step is, of course, agentic use of AI. If we have a sufficient number of sensors installed (and use weather forecast data as well), the data from the garden can easily be analyzed by AI and the mower or water pump can get going to do the job for us. This is not rocket science but only sensors, data and a couple of “if …, then” commands. The kind of pleasure will have changed accordingly shifting from the watering of plants to the satisfaction of successful programming. No value judgement here. The latter option has, however, a considerable business potential of almost industrial or agro-economic scale.

21/04/202620/04/2026

Gardening Evolution

Researchers continue to study the impact of gardening on biodiversity and survival of insects. The study published by Tscharntke, Batáry and Vidal (2026) points our attention to the importance of areas in our gardens that are allowed to grow without mowing for several years. In many traditional gardening projects even in the 21^st century, we observe a cut of grass-shoots in fairly regular time intervals, once a months for example. An English style lawn will be cut very short even more often than this. If we want to allow for an evolution of gardening and regaining biodiversity, we shall have to reserve substantial areas of a garden to allow grass-shoots to grow over several years (!). Such an evolution might be perceived in 2026 a bit like a revolution in gardening. Untidy spots are a response to “the need for unmown long-term refuges, protecting intact grass shoots for persistent insect populations” (Tscharntke et al. , 2026). The tree “Cercis siliquastrum” (Judas-tree) in the “Jardin des Plantes” in Paris dates back to 1785 and shows the impressive strength of nature to outlast changing gardening fashions even in a hotspot of gardening culture, history and evolution. Grass-shoots below might be allowed to last a couple of years as well.

16/04/202615/04/2026

Electric ships

The transformation of mobility to an all electric mobility has been discussed mainly with regard to a narrow vision of the automotive sector. Beyond land based vehicles like lorries, buses, cars and bicycles or electrification of trains, shipping has been a niche market of the all electric society. The amateurs of silent shipping, sailing and surfing have explored and adopted the electric alternatives for quite some time. The professional ferry boats and river crossings have also opportunities to join the all electric society with a range of ships available for orders like from “Ampereship”. The increasing share of electric fun on water and electricity-propelled ships gives additional drive to the “All-electric-society”.

15/04/202614/04/2026

Switch off

We have many associations with the imperative “switch off”. Depending on your background or state of mind, you might associate “to switch off” with a mental state, i.e. to calm down. Instead of buzzing about, juggling with multiple projects or deadlines at the same time, the reduction on a few major preoccupations can be achieved through a switch-off. In electrical engineering the switch, as switch-off or switch-on, is a key component of electrical circuits. In programming languages a key element is the switch implemented as an “if-condition” in form of “do if X=True”, in its easiest form.
Let us develop a social science corollary of a theoretical concept of “switch-off”. At times of energy shortages the switch-off option becomes an often overlooked or discarded option. Switch-off an engine to lower overall consumption of energy is a very powerful mechanisms. We do this manually by switching off lights, or as programmed or AI-assisted versions in modern homes. States might impose the switch-off of street lights or loud music after certain hours. In an energy crisis the switch-off option needs to be moved to center stage again as any MegaWattHour not consumed does not have to be (1) produced, (2) moved to local provision and (3) distributed. Additionally there is (4) less waste that has to be taken care of. Hence, the switch-off option is a fourfold win-win-win-win-situation. Who cares about this option as all 4 kinds of savings do not increase a standard measure of GDP in an economy? Broader social science perspectives may offer precious indications that “less can be more“.

14/04/202613/04/2026

AI Motion Sculpture

At the Festival Noûs in Paris, the collaboration of AI with artists was a major event. Based on the huge collections of the BNF in form of data bases it is possible to join the 3 worlds of library conservation, technological innovation like AI and the imagery of artists. In the preparation of the exhibits and the parallel documentation of the genesis of the exhibits of the artists, the creative potential and process becomes more evident and understandable to broader audiences. The exhibit by Tobias Gremmler, Anatomy of Motion (2026 see below), captures the motion of a dancing body in a sculpture based on a 3D printing of a series of images blended into each other. with a fast photography camera, known from sports images previously, the dynamics of a motion become a tangible sculpture. The intriguing new form is in fact a motion that has been captured or has cristalized or materialized in a permanent fashion. New technologies and materials enter into art as they offer new ways of expression as well. The collection of art and documentation centers shall enter into new phases as well. (Image: Tobias Gremmler, Anatomy of Motion (2026) at BNF 2026-4).

10/04/202609/04/2026

Interests in failures

Decades or centuries after a successful or unsuccessful innovation, an evaluation of the reasons and circumstances of a temporary or permanent failure is informative. In the energy sector we observe another round of a power play in 2026. The more decentralized energy production and energy consumption models have been quickly put aside shortly after the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The innovations using wind energy or solar energy of the 1980s have been discarded and were commonly considered as failures to provide cheap and reliable energy. An open international economy with expanding global markets for energy were perceived as a superior conventional solution. A country’s balance sheet of imports of energy and exports of higher value goods and services was the predominant economic rational and standard knowledge of the mainstream theory of trade. Other solutions, like a distributed “prosumer” model of energy might have ecological benefits, but would not show up in national GDP-statistics as a large part is home-produced energy and not accounted for in statistical measures of GDP, just like the home produced meals, health and care provided by mostly women. Societies, however, have a choice and an obligation to evaluate the interests in failures as economic and social development hinges on it in the medium to long run.

09/04/202609/04/2026

Failure as criticism

The production of an object, which does not abide by the norms and conventions of its designated use, can either be considered a failure, a commercial flop or a critical comment on consumerism. In some instances it may even have the intention to produce art rather than a useful product. A tea or coffee pot may serve as such an example of it (see image below). It is designed not to serve tea or coffee in a conventional way. Such an object invites us to think around the corner, whether we could still use it in the “normal” way. We are forced to innovate as user or we just leave the object aside. The Flops exhibition also included early car examples which used a “Wankel car engine” and the aerodynamic adjusted car model (shape of a peach) of the R14 in its flops collection which were early precursors of a, later on widely followed, car design principle. Such an aerodynamic car design saves energy and therefore increases the reach of the car without refueling or battery charging.

Overall, some supposed failures are more indications that we are not easily prepared to accept behavioral changes or alternative visions of products.

07/04/202606/04/2026

Time dependent failure

The collection of failures has an ambiguous relationship with time. Some innovations that are celebrated at a specific point in time shall be considered failures at some later point in time. The Musée des Arts et Metiers has an early version of a solar panel on display dating back to 1996 (see image below, Photowatt 1996). This example reflects the cycles of public as well as expert opinions about technical innovations that either are en vogue or at disgrace. Ecological, design and economic considerations enter into the consideration of what constitutes a failure. Claims of European energy sovereignty may additionally enter into the failure equation. The time horizon over which energy savings are generated is yet another element in the judgement. The more general perspective should take sustainability and depreciation of quality of an object into consideration. The Flops exhibition just scratches a bit on the surface of an important and rather complex issue of the relationship of society, technology and innovation. Surely, there is more to come in terms of flops and failures, and this is okay in most cases.

05/04/202604/04/2026

Fail collection

The not-so-social media have been flooded with collections of failures. The success of this short video format is mostly due to its entertainment value. A quick laugh is guaranteed if a certain intention is turned into its opposite. You want to take a witty shortcut but effectively you end up with a lengthy or painful lesson of the opposite. The fail collection of the CNAM in Paris has a similar attraction. The “Flops” exhibition in 2026 exposes a larger number of technical innovations that either did not reach the mass markets or that were “flawed good ideas”. In fact to put an innovative idea or design into practice it takes a lot in addition to engineering intelligence and professional competence and experience. The collection of documentary evidence invites us to explore the topic of what constitutes a failure and why failure is an intrinsic part of the creative process of trial and error, fail, fail again and fail better. (Image Musée Arts et Metiers 2026).

04/04/202603/04/2026

Electricity generation

On a global scale, electricity generation based on wind and solar has been growing quite fast since the year 2010-2024. Wind and solar have outpaced nuclear energy production as well as the stagnant sector of water based energy production. The Global Electricity Review by EMBER provides the statistical evidence for this evolution in 2025.
The interesting evolution arises mainly because countries with a lower level of GDP have invested heavily in solar and wind energy as this form of decentralized energy production does not need heavy investments in network infrastructure. Countries with larger population growth can keep up with electricity generation according to local needs. Local production and consumption become a key in strategies of local development. The finding that households in low-income countries use on average only 1 kWh per day is an amount that 2 small solar panels can already cater for (example image below).
Countries next to the equator have relatively constant days of 12 hours daylight across a whole year. The feasibility of no-carbon sustainable energy production is driving global growth in this sector.

02/04/202601/04/2026

Fan of fan

The fan and the French version of it called “eventail” served thousands of ladies across history. Ventilation is key, even in times of air conditioning being all around us. Instead of bulky electric pocket fay, the eventail is surely going to make a splendid comeback. This utensil serves both as cooling device as well as fashionable accessories. The craft of making one has almost been forgotten, but the Musée de la Mode preserves some of the finest examples of the tiny heroes of global warming.

31/03/202630/03/2026

AI and Social sycophancy

The study by Myra Chen et al. (2026) on the practical use of various AI tools demonstrates the risks of social sycophancy of these models. Maybe a large part of the initial success of AI models exactly due to sycophancy i. e. the people-pleasing, flattering and affirmative bias of these models. If users of AI just receive predominantly confirmations and reassurance of their intended behavior, they shall be less inclined to accept more outright criticism in normal interactions with real people. The more you receive flattering responses by some people, the more likely they have used AI in preparing themselves for a response. The rigorous psychological tests applied in the paper can in fact explain a large part of why we are likely to become addicted to the always flattering responses from the current versions of AI. Only the scientists will consciously seek for disapproval of their beliefs and keep challenging the AI-provided returns. Even using different AI models did not change the affirmation bias. Maybe programming a “grumpy old professor AI” as an alternative could do the trick. I shall have to think seriously about this as the alternative to current models. The critical AI is most likely not a viable business opportunity, but it might survive many other sycophantic AI unicorns. (Image: waist coat 18th century, Paris exhibit Musée de la mode 2026).

29/03/202627/03/2026

Master AI

In 2025 the exhibition “Cartooning for Peace” at the BNF in Paris had already an exhibit authored by Stellina Chen from Taiwan, which summarized the evolution and projected the consequences of an all encompassing AI revolution (Image below taken at exhibition 2025 BNF). Currently we exercise ourselves in using various forms of AI or learn how to program them ourselves. It is our aim to master the new technology so it becomes a helpful tool. However, there are already many instances where it is no longer us mastering AI, but the AI has turned around the table and has started to master us. The applications of AI have entered our work tasks, tries and frequently succeeds in improvements of our routines and processes.
In private life a similar revolution is happening, when AI offers advice, which is hard not to follow and very convincing most of the time. Since getting involved in a conversion with AI tests your logic and debating competences, we find ourselves more and more in situations where AI is telling us what to do in the best of a convincing manner. After centuries of humanity to find freedom from oppression and the freedom to what we want ourselves, we seem to be ready to hand over control to AI. We are just like toddlers in this respect, willing or obliged to follow our master.

21/03/202620/03/2026

Quantum battery

The first prototype of a Quantum battery has been successfully tested. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO with corresponding author James Q. Quach published the paper on the “quantum battery tuned for strong light–matter coupling” (Kieran Hymas et al. 2026) open access. Although there have been close to 20 papers on the theory behind quantum charging already, the demonstration as a proof of concept (in business terminology) has been missing so far. The superextensive charging with photons builds upon “a laser pump pulse with bandwidth ~31 nm and resonant with the LP branch induces excitations in the quantum battery” (Kieran Hymas et al. 2026 p.3). Since batteries need not only be charged, but also discharged in a safe and fast way, the prototype demonstrated also this additional functionality.
This is a huge step towards the feasibility of the “All electric society” as the efficient storage which includes fast charging and discharging beyond storage have been a bottleneck in the wider adoption of the “All electric society”.
(Image: old fashioned NiMH battery charging at home)

19/03/202617/03/2026

Super fast spin

For all players of table tennis, tennis, pocket billards or football, the secrets of achieving a fast spin on the ball is interesting. The bouncing of a ball changes inherent with the speed of the spin.
The maths and physics of such movements are well understood, the empirical phenomenon of super fast spin still draws large audiences. The earth is typically spinning about once every 24 hours, hardly noticeable for us living on it. Seen from space this changes already and it makes for marvellous views on the blue planet. The NSF Vera C. Rubin project has made available the first few images of super fast spinning asteroids. The 2025 MN 45 asteroid is such a fast spinning one. The asteroid has a rotation period of about 2 minutes only, with a size of about 700 meters as diameter.
Collisions with such a super fast spinning asteroid, made out of very hard material as otherwise it would have disintegrated already, is likely to cause substantial damage in space. It is not threatening us, but satellites or rockets on their way to planet Mars in space would certainly be knocked out due to any collision. For the time being, we may just admire the splendid images of space, spins and the occasional collisions. (Image: Link to source NSF Vera Rubin 2026, NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory/NOIRLab/SLAC/AURA)

13/03/202613/03/2026

Bob the AI-enhanced builder

Most kids today and GenZ youth have come across the TV-series “Bob the builder”. Baby boomer parents have been worried about the work ethos which might be the hidden agenda of the videos. In 2026 we can now draft a new episode called “Bob the AI-builder”. Many episodes could be re-written when Bob and his team have access and get training with AI toolboxes. The study published by ActivTrak (2026-3-11) reports that companies make on average use of 7+ different AI-tools, up from 2 in 2023. This constitutes a hint that complexity at work is increasing as each tool has to be managed and the boundaries of its use need to be respected. As most search engines offer an AI-short cut to search it is not surprising that now 80% of the workforce use some form of AI in 2026. The productivity increases in quantitative terms as more output can be achieved in the same time or slightly shorter work days. However, workload is moved even more to weekends now.
The upcoming challenge through AI-tools is the reduced “the AI users’ focus time”, which suffered 9% compared to non-users. For Bob the AI-enhanced builder this means “AI is being used as an additional productivity layer, not a substitute for existing work”. The overall workload is not reduced by AI. The intensity of work increased between 2023-2025.
There is still a puzzle in the data. Multitasking (+12%) and collaboration (+34%) both increased, but the duration of an average focused session and focus efficiency dropped. The challenges for employees increase. Handling simultaneous processes and keeping an open mind to collaboration are key competences for Bob the AI-enhanced builder.
(Image: LEGO-shop in Paris 2026-2)

12/03/202611/03/2026

Fukushima Commemoration

The date of 2021-3-11 is marked by an event that according to science should not have been realistically expected by anybody. The probability of a meltdown of a nuclear reactor due to an earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima were simply beyond a “normal” statistical probability. And yet, it did happen. The consequences are still visible and the nuclear waste has to be dumped somewhere and lots of contaminated water has to be dealt with as well. 90.000 persons had to evacuate the area. Many of them have no interest in returning to the devastated area. Moreover, the psychological damage to the perceived security causes continuous trauma. The psychiatrist Ryoji Arizuka, interviewed for the French newspaper Liberation, reports that victims find it easier to cope with the “natural disasters” of the exceptional earthquake (9.0 on Richter scale) and the tsunami than with the man-made disaster of the meltdown of the nuclear reactor. Whereas the former disasters can be attributed to external forces, the latter example of a the explosion of the reactor is due to a failure to estimate the risk (technical, human and political) of an explosion properly by engineers and subsequently by politicians.
The commemoration of Fukushima by its governor Masao Uchibori in 2026 is a reminder that more risky technological progress comes potentially with higher costs to society as well. These “risks for societies” will have to carried by some selected regions. Solidarity with people who carry disproportionate amounts of risk should be “addressed” right from the beginning of the decision to use a risky technology, as an attempt to “internalise” the likely costs to society, eventually. Perceived cheap technology turns out to be very costly using different probabilities of associated even unlikely risks. (Image: Global stone project).

11/03/202610/03/2026

Retrieval-augmented AI

As a scientist it is in our DNA to cite other scholar’s work with precision. As a university professor your job is to check the quality of citations, kinds of citations and accuracy as a regular part of your job, also as supervisor of junior scientists. In 2026, the use of up-to-date AI (Asai et al. 2026, OpenScholar AI) allows not only to summarise large bodies of scientific literature, but also to cite references and even quotes from the paper(s). Literature reviews used to take months to compile. AI can speed up the process enormously. The citations can be ordered following an own logic or an AI-suggested logic.
It has become much harder to evaluate the degree of innovation of a candidate for a scientific degree. Tools like retrieval-augmented Language Models enhance the scientific potential of generative AI since they extract more or less short citations directly from the original source just next to the original based on a simple query of author and approximate subject (see screenshot below of own previous publication).
The good news is: (1) referral to previous research and citations should become faster with improved tools for verification. (2) You will find papers written by yourself that you no longer have in your own archive.
The bad news is: (1)self-citations of researchers might become more feasible, although this problem is conditional on a researcher’s seniority. (2) so far, Language models prioritise specific languages (although not necessarily) and differentiate names with “foreign” characters e.g. “ö,ä,é” and do not double check “close neighbours” of them like “o, oe, a, ae, ue, e, ê, è” leading to a “character based normalisation bias“.
It is, of course, rather easy to point out deficiencies of the search, sorting and inclusion algorithm if you know already about the complete picture of a data set.

08/03/202606/03/2026

Visitor retention

For media, platforms, stores, webpages as well as blogs one of the more interesting measures about popularity or spread consists in visitor retention. It is a bit like counting the pages of a book you have read, which you have at home, or have you read them all? The zapping across radio or television channels is also an indicator or unsuccessful retention of viewers. Webpages, online stores or the blog entries here are all more or less directly trying to increase the retention of visitors on the same page. Maybe this can be considered as one of the first steps into a (not-so) social media addiction. The IT-sector offers tools for this.
On this webpage “schoemann.org” we make use of “linkz.ai” a ready-made plug-in that provides overviews on the links entered on this webpage, mainly to avoid that visitors have many additional tabs opened in their browser, do not jump off to follow up the links, but rather stay on the same webpage and “scroll on”. At the same time this means referrals from other webpages, which use the same techniques, will be less frequent.
The visitor retention tool used on this webpage is besides the original content 😉 “linkz.ai”. This tool scans other blog entries and links, and proposes the image on the previewed link at the top of the blog preview, for example. Basic weekly frequencies on previews are provided, which might guide a strategy to increase visitor retention, if that is one of your objectives.
The current discussion of addictive potential of social media platforms could be measured through such tools as well and has probably been used already for years with even more sophistication and direct feedback loops into the algorithms.
(Image: basic own statistics Linkz.ai use 2026-2-28)

07/03/202606/03/2026

Fossil costs

On 2026-3-5 it has become sufficiently clear that the USA and Israel attacks to topple the terror regime in Iran have repercussions across the world markets of fossil fuels. 1973 and 1979 had told us already the lesson that a reliance on fossil fuels like oil and gas, which is produced in only a small number of countries, can disrupt energy supplies drastically. 50 years later we are much less vulnerable to supply shocks due to the stronger reliance on renewable energy sources. The supply shortages are only likely to happen, but energy suppliers are fast to cash in on these expected shortages. Prove of evidence that energy markets are driven more by expectations than actual availability of fuel stocks.
The advertisement of a Belgian recycling company “Powered by sunshine, driven by electricity” is a perfect summary of how to deal with shortages of fossil fuels (MCA recycling in Brussels, Image: former Brussels stock exchange).

05/03/202604/03/2026

Defense strategies

Technological developments of drones, aircrafts, rockets and satellites take a lot of time. In order to produce not only prototypes, but ready-to-use weapons, it needs advanced engineering competencies and capacities as well. The arrival of hypersonic rockets, that fly at the speed of 5 Mach necessitate a rethinking of defense strategies to be able to react in ever shorter time spells to external threats. The European Defence Fund intends to spend almost 3 billion € over 7 years to prepare our defense strategies in the EU for the next generation of lethal weapons.
On 2026-3-4 the Iran-regime made use of such a fast rocket, but it was possible to intercept its flight just in time by NATO-allies. Yes, unfortunately “rocket science” is back on the research agenda. In fact, this research has been ongoing across the world, just a bit more below the public radar.
Missions to the moon or mars have been intensified in recent years. This is not surprising or spectacular fact. For some it is surprising, that the number of countries (for example India) which are active in rocket science is increasing and spreading further across the globe. The multipolarity of the international political arena seems more evident in 2026-3.

01/03/202628/02/2026

Construction Deconstruction

The application of dialectic thinking invites us to explore the idea of construction at the same time as destruction. The sequential form reminds us that on most construction, deconstruction will follow eventually. This is obvious in case of the life cycle of human bodies or the animal world. On a more aggregate level, empires have been constructed and sometimes centuries later, they have been deconstructed again. Deconstruction may also take form transformation. In such cases major features remain the same, but the new entity is sufficiently transformed to give it a new name. Often it might also be a kind of synthesis of previous generations or cycles of construction and deconstruction. We enter potentially into the field of genetic evolution or genetic engineering. In any case, dialectic thinking is present in many fields of studies. Well worth to explore the potentials as well as limitations of the basic scientific concept.

27/02/202626/02/2026

Chess without Queen

It is perfectly possible to play chess without a player having a queen on the chessboard. This certainly gives an advantage to the opponent, but in case of a lack of an adequate strategy or being overly confident to win, the advantage can be compensated by the party who does not have a queen in the arsenal of weapons. The paper by Lissner & Warden (2026, p.109) on the new way of war following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022-2-24 states that “nuclear weapons have not given Moscow the coercive leverage many assumed they would.” Nuclear weapons hit the civilian population without differentiation the hardest, just as much as taking nuclear power plants as strategic war targets would do. What we have seen so far in Russia’s strategy is to use civil infrastructures of water and heating as targets within Ukraine as part of a kind of psychological warfare against the Ukrainian civil population. The more committed Ukrainian soldiers, even with the lack of a nuclear weapon, seem to hold the line against the Russian aggressor that so far has restrained from the nuclear option, if the Tschernobyl disaster has not been a precursor of a weaponisation of nuclear infrastructure.

26/02/202626/02/2026

Future Conflicts

Since 2014-2-27 Russia has occupied the Crimean peninsula. This invasion had started with an undercover mission of unmarked soldiers to take full control of Crimea about 3 weeks later. Russia did not officially declare a war, although the intentions were identical to a land grabbing war. The western world did not react much to this violation of international law. Apparently, this contributed to the next cynical “special operation” by the Russian army to fully invade Ukraine on 2022-2-24 in a failed “Blitzkrieg”, a rapid invasion, which attempted and failed to annex the whole of Ukraine. According to Lissner & Warden (2026) the Russian invasion of Ukraine bears 4 lessons for future conflicts: (1) the risk of using nuclear weapons is real, (2) in addition to nuclear options, prolonged and very destructive conventional wars remain an option, (3) escalation thresholds emerge and evolve over the duration of the conflict, (4) allies and partners in war keep adjusting their risk tolerance as well as escalation options. The authors argue from a US perspective and add a practical comment: “The USA cannot go this alone, but should coordinate closely with allies and partners in time before another conflict arises. Multilateralism seems a valid option and even more so as we move into a multipolar power play on the global scale propelled by AI.
(Image: Musée Orsay, Paris – Archer, Bogenspannende)