Category: Global

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mAga mEga mIga mOga mUga

Just take all the vowels of the Latin alphabet and the absurdity of the MAGA saga becomes evident. If other states would start to claim like the US under President Trump to make X great again, the world would soon fall into disaster. Let us go through the hypothetical cases like MEGA, make Europe, England or Ethiopia great again. Go back to colonial imperialism? Certainly not. How about make Israel, Indonesia or India great again? Well, that would alarm neighbors, just as much as make Osmania, Oman great again. With the potential of Russia getting its way to keep illegal possession of parts of Ukraine, make Ukraine great again spells continued trouble on the European continent. Once MAGA mania has been unleashed, it is difficult to get the spirit back into the bottle and close it firmly again. Return of brute force rather than diplomatic exchanges become the rule. A return to rule based international politics in a multilateral context needs to be reclaimed by the vast majority of states that have an interest in lasting peace without expansionist views.  (Image from: “The beast is dead”)

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Bulimia Capitalism

Each time a wave and speculative bubble in the economy is building up or even bursting there are thousands of people who become drawn into chaos. Let us quickly review: Oil bubbles in the 70s, financial crisis and  subprime lending in housing markets, 1st internet bubble and the year 2000 bugs, AI excesses in 2025. These boom and bust cycles resemble the medical and psychological patterns of a bulimia nervosa. The overly optimistic outlook for AI companies’ future profits and shifts in the size of office space needed for companies announce bulimic behavior when at the same time vomiting by the same companies occurs with regard to investments in nuclear energy plants even in the sites like Fukushima in Japan or Three Mile Island in the USA. Bulimia Capitalism seems to be eating its own children. The upcoming year 2026 will be full of revelations in this respect. (Image: collection of about a hundred barbies exposed on a flea market in Brussels on 5 levels).

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Socio-technological obsolescence

The standard literature or AI-sytems will give you a definition of on technological obsolescence, which specifies that obsolescence does not mean that a device is broken, but that it is outdated. In computers this might be due to hardware no longer supporting newer, more resource demanding software, or newer software insisting on the use of other hardware. The seemingly rapid innovation cycles in smartphones, cars or robots might justify such technological obsolescence, but the real advances like shifts from 3G to 4G to the newer 5G mobile frequency standards have taken place rather slowly due to provider coverage of sufficiently large, particularly rural areas.
Therefore, the technological obsolescence has to be enlarged as a concept to socio-technological obsolescence as the societal, legal and economic boundaries of technological innovations have to be taken into account as well. Provisions for health concerns or CO2 saving circularity, i.e. reuse of resources have to be taken into account as part of a precautionary principle.
Computer screens have asked us to move from square designs to wide screens (watch videos) to smartphones’ standards of long formats. My 20 years old square screen has been doing a reasonable job throughout these periods, though not for serious games.
The socio-technological obsolescence relies on a “socio-technical prestige score” of products, like for luxury brands in other industries, where fashions drive obsolescence more than technology.
(Image: Robotic arm made by Kuka writes on paper sheet at Frankfurt book fair 2017)

 

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Foul-smelling dictatorship

The animal world is full of interesting strategies of how to turn over a foul-smelling ruler or dictatorship. The ant queen of “lasius orientalis” infiltrates a colony of “lavius flavus” to spray the incumbent queen with a foul-smelling substance which turns the worker ants against their own queen and eventually kills the queen. This is a rather intelligent strategy to trick the defense system of rival colonies and prepare a takeover of a whole colony to install your own reign.
This may constitute a stark warning for democracies just as much as a threat to persistent dictatorships. In the age of the not so social media there is a lot of foul-smells produced. Beware of the risks to democracy as open societies are much easier to infiltrate than closed societies or dictatorships. (Link)

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Philosophy of Voyage

In an interview Claude Lévi-Strauss described himself as a philosopher of voyage. The excursions which lasted sometimes several months to live with indigenous people and study their languages, habits and culture became a scientific field of its own called social anthropology. He travelled with his wife and wrote down hundreds of notes and collected items. Only years later the concept of stuctural theory became evident to him. A voyage might go on after the end of traveling. It might start well before departure as well, not the least due to all the preparations. Colette, the French writer and polyartist, coined the phrase “ce qu’on sait faire, au fond, c’est de la route, ce  n‘est pas du voyage ” in the novel « La chatte ». In the pre- and immediate post 2WW years “taking to the roads” often had a gendered view of this with women being rare to hold a driver’s license. To “find meaning through voyages” or “the voyage is the meaning” fill whole libraries. For better or worse, travel books are still best selling books in a shrinking overall book market (less print books sold, but still higher value of sales).   

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All electric again

The “all electric society” has been identified by Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber (2025 p.48) as one of the underlying driving forces of “The real China Model”. Despite the heavy reliance and pollution caused by China’s use of coal, the large share of electricity  (30%) of energy use is unmatched by the rest of the world except Japan. Investment in electricity grids and innovative ways of mobility around electricity will allow China to buzz rather than steam ahead. Solar cells, batteries for electricity storage and innovative ways of distribution of electricity through AI enhanced “learning” devices will widen the gap between China and other countries that suffer from inefficient path dependency.
Taking the advent of the “All electric society” seriously will free resources through the focus on future-proof technologies. We should not be afraid of the sparks of a short-circuited “All electric society”, the environmental challenges ahead for all of us, particularly China, ask to shift to high voltage solutions urgently. 

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Weaponized Interdependence

The shift in the international political system is clearly expressed in the contribution by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman in “Foreign Affairs” (2025 (Nr. 5) p.25). “… governments must navigate a terrain with many more players, figuring out how to redirect private-sector supply chains in directions that do not hurt themselves while anticipating the responses of a multitude of governmental and nongovernmental actors.”
As the number of bigger global players increases, the complexity to identify best strategies increases as well. Going it alone is only second best to coordinated actions. New matches of interests may result in the medium term. This could entail enormous long term realignments.
Russia attempted to play the China, and subsequently the India, card to achieve new strategic partnerships in this multipolar world. Other international players test new forms of alliances and strategies (like hybrid wars) in this period of weaponized interdependence as well.
The weaponization of such interdependencies puts critical limits to the basic economic rationale and a world building on comparative advantages together with trade, rather than going it all alone or try the coercive way of exploiting dependencies of mineral resources, supply chains, computing power and AI.
(Image: Chess figures attributed to Charlemagne, dating from 1080-1100 ” BNF Galerie Mazarin 2025-10)

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The Beast is dead

The BNF and the gallery Auguste Rondel celebrate the acquisition of the original drawings of “La bête est morte” by „Calvo“ at the fabulous Richelieu site. The appearance of the story and cartoon in 1945 was a landmark in artistic achievements for several reasons. (1) Calvo made it possible for whole families to talk about the horrors of war and the Shoa by use of text and images in an form of an animals’ world, well known in France. (2) Because all generations are familiar with the fables written by Jean de la Fontaine, the story set in the world of animals is both appealing and yet a bit more distant than drawing human faces on this traumatizing reality. (3) The cartoons managed to overcome the barriers to understand the beginning and ending of World War II and the geographical spread.
Uderzo, the well known cartoonist of “Asterix” did small services for Calvo when he was still an adolescent in 1945. Learning from the best of a field can give you a head start later on.  (Extract of Image  by Calvo 1945). 

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Passing barriers

In quantum physics the real trick is not the rebound of electrons like the rebound of droplets, but the passing of electrons of an insulating barrier. The experiment of the ”Josephson junction” has set a precedent to research the surprising macro-effect of “quantum tunnelling”. The 2025 Nobel Prize has been awarded to Clarke, Devoret and Martinis who observed these effects on a macroscopic scale. The applications in the most advanced quantum computers of today shows the enormous potential of this demonstration in pushing computing speed boundaries. The international competition to develop such, ever faster computers, based on quantum physics, is running on high development speed. In combination with the artificial intelligence (AI) developments, these types of combined machines are likely to outpace the development of human-based intelligence. It becomes even more important to define the limits for those machines by us. Subsequently, we shall have to make sure that such combined machines stick to the rules, we define(d).

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Unity is key

The choice of the motto “In illo uno unum” by the new Pope Leo XIV of the catholic church in 2025  highlights his choice to devote his efforts to the unity of all christian churches on earth. This is a centuries old dream of the diversified interpretations and practices within the christian beliefs and traditions. The inaugural sermon of a Pope therefore takes the form of a high stakes announcement for the coming years (Link). The next document from Leo XIV speaks to the importance to preserve the earth as the creation of God with all its diversity as a whole as well as in its parts. We might translate this back into “In illa uno unum”, where in illa stands for the earth, as a female and nature-turned version of the Pope’s chosen Motto. The choice of the tradition of Popes named Leo, like Leo XIII previously was another matter of signalling to his followers that he is firmly embedded into the Augustine tradition of Christian beliefs and traditions and practice. A concern for unity is necessarily bound to bring together peoples from all corners of the planet on the foundation of equality and a sharing and preservation of the riches of the world. (Image in Brussels, Joachim Pecci as ambassador of Vatican in Belgium before he became Pope Leo XIII). 

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Political Economy 2025

As the global markets have moved from an international economic system based on competition to a world of protectionism based on arbitrary tariffs and restrictions, it feels strange to spot banners in Brussels in 2025-10 entitled “Competitive Europe Summit”. Participants at the conference appear to be “barking up the wrong tree”. In industries, and even more so in most services, access to markets is the necessary condition to embark on competition. No access, no competition. Tariffs or taxes are created to stifle competition.
All this has multiple reasons. One reason is to create an equal playing field among countries. Previously, we thought exchange rates of currencies and eventually purchasing power parities would shift following changes in competitiveness. This mainstream economic thinking has been disrupted through Putin’s war on Ukraine territory. The MAGA political economy narrative has impacted the competition between countries as well, (1) with its rhetoric and (2) back and forth changes in tariffs. Competition with countries which do not respect basic principles of fairness in competition can no longer be confronted with a mantra of a “competitive Europe”.
A more unified Europe could deal with the “politico-economic” fact that the global economy is much less concerned with the idea of competitiveness than in the last few decades of the last millennium (70s, 80s, 90s). Powerplay between nations maybe regarded as a kind of competition for dominance, but a sole focus on economic competition is grossly misleading nowadays after 3 years of the Russian aggression, at least with a focus on the short and middle distance run.

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Sink / Rise

Nick Brandt presented his engaged photographic projects “The day may break” in Brussels at the Hangar Gallery space in Brussels (2025-9-21). The photographic work spans the globe to document and tell the story of a an endangered planet. The environmental and social fabric is at risk of an unprecented scale in the 21st century. Rather than producing hours of documentation, Nick Brandt focuses on images that stick. His “mise en scene” is meant to haunt us. And it succeeds in it. In the best sense of a tradition of a “photographe engagé” he intends to convey messages, even whole narratives to us about and from people in remote places, who are endangered through our inaction or paralysis in front of the challenges posed by global warming and climate change as well as the social and societal consequences.
We can save people from drowning in floods and rising sea levels. The chapter Sink / Rise of this project was produced with people from the Fiji islands who participated in the futuristic scenario of a sunk island. Without accusations, these people question us. Why? How? What for? Where to? – without speaking a word. They spend time in on a sunk island, surrounded, submerged by beautiful, but morbid, turquoise water and the graveyard-like remainders of a broken coral reef. These are photographs not of these people, but about them, about their likely fate, and (very important) produced with them as empowered actors. May they have a chance to rise like a phoenix from the ashes from these photos.
The documentation on the “Making of …” (image below) as part of the same exhibition allows transparency and additional insights into the artist’s work and proceedings.
(Image: Hangar Gallery, Brussels 2025-9-21, On the making of Sink / Rise by Nick Brandt)

 

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Marc Aurel Book 10

Book 10 offers some referrals to previous books and topics: Marc Aurel defends a wholistic vision as in book 10 paragraph 17: “Keep constantly in your mind an impression of the whole of time (χρόνον) and the whole of existence (οὐσίαν)…” (Penguin Classics version, also in Greek original/French translation). In the same vein, he wants all this knowledge and considerations to be “actionable”. This reads in his words: “No more roundabout discussion of what makes a good man. Be one!” (book 10, paragraph 16 in the same two editions). As the late Marc Aurel’s writings progress, he becomes even more “exigent” in the sense of demanding ever higher standards (of himself). “Whole-ism” paired with a request to, nevertheless, be ready for action at any time is not only a high cognitive demand, but also a reminder to leave procrastination behind. The virtue of a stoic leadership style remains an ambitious challenge.
(Image: Trier Exhibitions on Marc Aurel, 2025-9)

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Marc Aurel Book 8-9

In book 7 paragraph 38 the stoic wisdom is exemplified in the the the short phrase „If you have sharp sight, use it: but, as the poet says, add wise judgment“. Being sharp in your reasoning or data collection is only part of the human endeavor. A wise judgement is, however, an ambitious aim as judgments have different short term and long term consequences. Intergenerational considerations as for climate change ask for respect of other species, biodiversity and to take into account very long time horizons.  The quote from book 8 paragraph 5 appears very modern or post-modern in this context. „There can often be wrongs of omission as well as commission.“ (both citations from Penguin Classics edition) Not acting on behalf of future generations and disappearing species is the most crying omission of our time.

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Vacation money

The budget for a vacation, depending on your destination, is subject to exchange rate adjustments. If there are several months between planning and traveling the exchange rate like between the US $ and the Euro € has fluctuated recently by 10% in favor of the €uro. Nice for those receiving salaries in € and who spend their vacation in a region using the US $ as main payment currency. International tourists frequently calculate in $ and therefore might find Europe a bit more expensive than before the return of Donald Trump in the USA.
However, for all those who live in the Member States of the Euro-area and take their vacation there as well, they no longer think in exchange rate risks to their vacation budget. Additionally, there are almost no risks to be subject to fake money transactions like in unfamiliar currencies.
In the Euro area we can use for example backlight to make sure a 50€ bank note is a real one. Happy vacation! 

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Vacation Waves

One of the most popular choices for a vacation is in connection with waves. There seems to be something mystical or romantic related to waves, which touches many people irrespective of their background and across continents. This goes much beyond what we know about waves from physics or maths and this is already a fascinating scientific story in itself. Sailing adepts will be able to tell marvellous tales about waves, too. Coming back from a vacation near the sea or a lake, you surely may add another story to the already rich inventory of waves in art or literature. The imagery about waves started early as well, ever since sailors started to conquer the world.

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Fontainebleau library

The “Galerie de Diane” in Fontainebleau has been built during Napoleon’s reign. It hosts the library with a large collection of books. The function of the books seems to be more to intimidate the persons passing by rather than ready for inspection. The globe at the entrance reflects the ambition of the ruler. The fact that you have to walk some stairs upwards increases the impression to be little compared to this universe of knowledge. It is great that libraries have flipped this perspective and today we study the period of Napoleon’s reign with our democratic values in mind. The top-down approach was the incarnation of Napoleon’s style of government. Despite the revival of such governance styles in the 21st century across the globe, they are unlikely to last for more years than Napoleon’s fate. A simple reason for this may be the only representative or intimidating role of knowledge in such forms of governance rather than an open mind approach. 

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Paris Olympics history

The 2024 Paris Olympic Games will go down in history as the event that has achieved to put Olympic Games and Paralympic Games on an equal footing. At least this is the message the  museum of the history of Paris tries to transmit. In the “Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet” we find a vase from the Games from 1924 in Paris next to the 2 Olympic torches, one for the Paralympics and one for the Olympics 2024. Both torches are the same only a different logo on them, same message, same spirit. The impact of these games is likely to set an example for many years to come and other hosts of the Games will be measured against this benchmark. Making history is one thing, taking care of the posterior image another one. Paris has taken of this as well.

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Timeless Nature

The beauty of butterflies has fascinated thousands of generations. It is the boomers’ generation that has increased the risks that future generations will have difficulties to enjoy the simple beauty of nature in their gardens or parks. Preservation of biodiversity is a value that should be ranked much higher than previously. Monitoring of biodiversity needs a generation of people well aware what a rich ecosystem and biodiversity looks like and how to preserve or restore it. Much to do for teaching and learning professionals as well. Curriculum development for biodiversity and sustainability is in urgent need for updates. This has to include the socioeconomic dimension as well.

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Air pollution dementia

A comprehensive review and update of evidence that indicates a link between air pollution and dementia has been published in “The Lancet” open access on 2025-7-25. Besides a genetic predisposition the environmental impact of our worsening air quality caused by fine dust particles and PM 2,5 and nitrogen dioxide NO2 has been found in several studies. This updated meta study should be an additional warning to take efforts to clean up our air more seriously. The diesel engines amongst other sources of air pollution have contributed a great deal to this evolution. Inner city inhabitants are at greater risks to suffer the consequences as they are more exposed to these pollutants and for longer durations. Clean air is a matter of brain health in advanced age and biodiversity as well.  

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Climate Awareness

The Musée d’Orsay has prepared a wonderful walk through its permanent exhibition of late 19th and early 20th century installations to reflect upon climate and climate change. Raising awareness about the treasures lost and those we are about to lose in the next few years. Impressionist painters have depicted landscapes, cities and monuments covered in snow, which the next generations will no longer be able to enjoy the same way. The roofs of Paris covered with snow has become a feature of a distant past. Additionally, the impression of the massive steam trains crossing metal bridges appear as the daunting future of technical progress. Mixed feelings of fascination and risk associated with those machines were captured by those painters’ eyes. Nowadays we are aware of the consequences of this technical progress for our planet. The walk through museum with a focus on climate related paintings is eye opening indeed. (Image: Extract of Éduard Veuillard, Le jardin des Tuileries, Musée d’Orsay, Paris) 

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Geo-politics of Electricity

Think of a society only based on electric energy. In the 21st century this energy stems from photovoltaic cells, wind and water turbines as well as geothermal energy sources. Each region of the globe and even within a country has its own kind of access to electric power specifically originating in the geographic and geologic context. This means we are returning to a phase in which “natural monopolies” of power generation have their comeback. Rather than nation wide power monopolies, the regional specificity becomes important again. Of course, this raises a lot of geopolitical issues and maybe tensions. Local economies will develop their own electricity provision. Larger and smaller companies can reorganize their power provision themselves. Energy monopolies become outdated if the infrastructure and legal frameworks are adapted to the potential of the “All electric society” conditional on new forms of “power” sharing. Electric and political power sharing will be key in the geo-politics of electricity.

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Less but better

There are many examples where a new mantra for the 21st century emerges from recent scientific evidence: “Less, but better” (Lbb). In studies of nutrition and human dietary requirements, the importance to eat less has been demonstrated on a regular basis. And this is even more important than to do more exercise if weight loss is the target or the attempt to explain obesity across the globe (McGrosky et al. 2025). The case for eating less is strong. Eating better refers to the need to avoid unhealthy, toxic or cancerous food or the way to prepare food. “Less but better” could become the new mantra or “categorical imperative” if you like it more philosophical in tone. We, the people gain, and the planet will gain as well. It is an easy win-win case, albeit with some behavioral implications.

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All electric now

The shift over to the “All electric society” is easiest in sunny states like California in the USA, Africa or Southern Europe. For other regions of the globe not only the production of energy through the sun is a bit less abundant, but the storage of the sun’s energy production for deferred use is the next challenge. Countries of the globe near the equator have to balance 12 hours daylight with 12 hours night, countries far from the equator have to balance additionally more long-term between short winter days and long summer light.
Different energy storage solutions have to be envisaged.
On a daily basis or even weekly basis, battery energy storage systems (BESS) can do the trick. These systems become more costly for high capacity, longer duration storage. Battery size and price quickly become an issue. The number of electric vehicles (EVs) that have this more intelligent BESS is rising. This makes it possible to eventually use this storage capacity, if your car is sitting around your home or office for most of the time anyway. To make the “all electric society” function 24 hours, energy storage has to be planned at the same time as production and consumption patterns. The all electric prosumer will be the de-central “pro-store-sumer” in the 21st century.

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Green trade flows

The statistics on trade flows reported by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs have a comprehensive data base in the background. The descriptive inspection of the raw data on trade flows comprising solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles shows a stark imbalance of how future-proof the trade between countries is. The New York Times (David Gelles et al. 2025-6-30) has put this information into an impressive graphical design to show the magnitude of the imbalance of how China trades in green products with the world and how the USA is losing out on future-proof low carbon emission trade. Despite the fact that China is still heavily emitting CO2 today due to burning coal for electrical power, the investments at home and trade with the world is moving into the opposite direction. We have seen many of these industries at risk in Europe, like solar panel production, batteries and increasingly electric vehicles, without the western countries getting organized to address crucial business and economic challenges. Falling behind in these industries and trade will shift global balances in the near future. Renovation through innovation is more promising than holding on for another decade to inefficient and more polluting energy sources. Repairs of homes and buildings have long lasting effects, which we can, nevertheless, change today.

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AI 2nd round effects

The most popular topic currently is AI.
Most writers, assisted by some form of AI, will deal with the 1st round effects of AI. These consist in the immediate consequence of the use of AI in office work, medical and military applications, music and all producing or creative industries. As an economist you take the input – output matrix of the economy (OECD countries) and take AI as an additional dimension of this I/O matrix, for example. The result is an AI-augmented model of the economy. This 3-dimensional cubic view of the economy asks to reflect on the potential short-term and medium-term impact of AI.
Let’s take the example of translation and editing services. AI will in the short-term or the 1st round effects make it easier to offer mechanical translations with fast turnaround. Most likely, this will lead to less translators needed for routine translations of longer texts, which would otherwise be a very costly endeavour. The 2nd round effects, however, will make the expert knowledge of translators of texts, where every word counts, more necessary in order to provide the best version of a translation targeted on specific audiences.
In the legal domain, for example, the precision of words is primordial and errors can be very costly. Hence, the 2nd round effects of AI in this field will increase the demand for high quality translation services more than before the use of AI. The important shift consists in these 2nd round effects of AI, which give a push to multilingual societies as just one medium-term outcome.
Please use AI to read (listen) to this paragraph in your native language or even dialect using your favourite AI-tool.

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Pervasive waste

From time to time waste from so-called highly developed countries is making headlines and then it is forgotten again. Huge amounts of plastic waste gets shipped for example from the USA to Malaysia in containers regularly (NYT 2025-7-1). The dumping of waste in other countries where it is cheaper to waste the waste is a cynical practice. Not only is the potential for reuse and a circular economy disregard, the little control that is exercised how the waste is treated afterwards is neglected. Some might just end up in our oceans later on or find its way in our food chains. The recent discovery of lots of nuclear waste at 5000 m depth in the sea in another extreme example of this practice to dump waste affecting all of is when profits have been accumulated inn the hands of a few enterprises and states. Such external effects as they are called in economic theory are part of the standard economic thinking. The challenge is to detect such behavior, persecute or better prevent it. This calls on countries who produce the waste to check for the contamination potential and treat their own waste. Fukushima has lots of barrels of nuclear waste waiting. The pervasive nature of this waste will make it last for thousands of years. “Beggar thy neighbor” with your waste is a major default of our current economic and social model. It remains an unresolved puzzle why mankind continues to work towards its own extinction. (Image: Le grisou, Constantin Meunier, MRBAB, Brussels). 

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Korean Epilogue

The exhibition on the Korean Provisional Government closed with a stimulating epilogue. The call on visitors to spread the message of peace resembles religious practices. The long struggle for Korean independence and freedom for the people in South Korea leaves them wishing the same for all Korean people and beyond 75 years after the beginnings of the Korean War. From a German and Eastern European perspective this unaccomplished wish resonates a lot. The small stickers with messages from visitors propose short thought pieces like “South and North Korea shall be together” and “Peace starts with inner peace”. The wisdom in these statements lies in not giving up on ideals, however distant they may appear. There is always the possibility of small steps ahead.

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Korean Independence

The independence of a country is sometimes a long struggle. At particular points in time, a window of opportunity may open up, which allows to change the course of history. In many cases the opportunity to gain independence has been prepared for several decades, at least from 1919 onwards to come to fruition only after the end of the Pacific war, shortly after the Nazi-regime was defeated. The long and relentless preparation of the Korean Provisional Government ensured that a consensual constitution was ready to be adopted and elections to be held. The resulting division of Korea into 2 parts (South and North), just like East and West Germany, is rather long lived on historical time scales. For that matter, the hope of a peaceful unification needs to be reiterated again and again. The informative exhibition of the Korean Cultural Center to Belgium and the EU highlights the continued “Dream of Peace” which continues even after more than 100 years.

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Preventive War

The term “Preventive War” is staging a revival in international politics. The recall of the famous quote “war is the continuation of politics with other means” from Clausewitz encompasses the idea of a pre-emptive strike and entering into war to avoid an enemy to grow too powerful at a later stage. In the age of weapons of mass destruction and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, an intervention to limit the spread of nuclear weapons has taken the form of a preventive war. The international community has been quite unsuccessful to limit the spread of nuclear weapons so far. Research shows that democracies are less likely to go to war than authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.
The preventive war strategy (Levy, 2008), however, is a means for democracies to defend their survival against the spreading and warmongering of authoritarian regimes. However, preventive war, by definition, is a war. The preventive aspects derives from the logic to avoid a much more devastating later war. There is a longitudinal assessment at the base of the calculation to enter now into a preventive war, rather than later into a more difficult defence. In anticipation of the defense, a pre-emptive strike is undertaken. In international politics the lack of a “policing of treaties and international agreements” has initiated the return of the neoclassical concept of national interest as a guiding principle for nation states. A continued threat to the survival of a state, Israel as an example, by the Iranian dictatorship makes the application of a preventive war strategy more likely.
Historically, democracies have applied such military strategies as a continuation of politics and diplomacy with other means. In this sense the 21st century is apparently no different from previous centuries. The revival of “Realpolitik” has been spurred by Putin and his war on Ukraine territory since 2014. How and when to return to the negotiation table is the litmus test of the preventive war strategy.
(Image: Paris, Hotel de la Marine, Le salon diplomatique 2025).