AI 2nd round effects

The most popular topic currently is AI.
Most writers, assisted by some form of AI, will deal with the 1st round effects of AI. These consist in the immediate consequence of the use of AI in office work, medical and military applications, music and all producing or creative industries. As an economist you take the input – output matrix of the economy (OECD countries) and take AI as an additional dimension of this I/O matrix, for example. The result is an AI-augmented model of the economy. This 3-dimensional cubic view of the economy asks to reflect on the potential short-term and medium-term impact of AI.
Let’s take the example of translation and editing services. AI will in the short-term or the 1st round effects make it easier to offer mechanical translations with fast turnaround. Most likely, this will lead to less translators needed for routine translations of longer texts, which would otherwise be a very costly endeavour. The 2nd round effects, however, will make the expert knowledge of translators of texts, where every word counts, more necessary in order to provide the best version of a translation targeted on specific audiences.
In the legal domain, for example, the precision of words is primordial and errors can be very costly. Hence, the 2nd round effects of AI in this field will increase the demand for high quality translation services more than before the use of AI. The important shift consists in these 2nd round effects of AI, which give a push to multilingual societies as just one medium-term outcome.
Please use AI to read (listen) to this paragraph in your native language or even dialect using your favourite AI-tool.

Pervasive waste

From time to time waste from so-called highly developed countries is making headlines and then it is forgotten again. Huge amounts of plastic waste gets shipped for example from the USA to Malaysia in containers regularly (NYT 2025-7-1). The dumping of waste in other countries where it is cheaper to waste the waste is a cynical practice. Not only is the potential for reuse and a circular economy disregard, the little control that is exercised how the waste is treated afterwards is neglected. Some might just end up in our oceans later on or find its way in our food chains. The recent discovery of lots of nuclear waste at 5000 m depth in the sea in another extreme example of this practice to dump waste affecting all of is when profits have been accumulated inn the hands of a few enterprises and states. Such external effects as they are called in economic theory are part of the standard economic thinking. The challenge is to detect such behavior, persecute or better prevent it. This calls on countries who produce the waste to check for the contamination potential and treat their own waste. Fukushima has lots of barrels of nuclear waste waiting. The pervasive nature of this waste will make it last for thousands of years. “Beggar thy neighbor” with your waste is a major default of our current economic and social model. It remains an unresolved puzzle why mankind continues to work towards its own extinction. (Image: Le grisou, Constantin Meunier, MRBAB, Brussels). 

Korean Epilogue

The exhibition on the Korean Provisional Government closed with a stimulating epilogue. The call on visitors to spread the message of peace resembles religious practices. The long struggle for Korean independence and freedom for the people in South Korea leaves them wishing the same for all Korean people and beyond 75 years after the beginnings of the Korean War. From a German and Eastern European perspective this unaccomplished wish resonates a lot. The small stickers with messages from visitors propose short thought pieces like “South and North Korea shall be together” and “Peace starts with inner peace”. The wisdom in these statements lies in not giving up on ideals, however distant they may appear. There is always the possibility of small steps ahead.

Korean Independence

The independence of a country is sometimes a long struggle. At particular points in time, a window of opportunity may open up, which allows to change the course of history. In many cases the opportunity to gain independence has been prepared for several decades, at least from 1919 onwards to come to fruition only after the end of the Pacific war, shortly after the Nazi-regime was defeated. The long and relentless preparation of the Korean Provisional Government ensured that a consensual constitution was ready to be adopted and elections to be held. The resulting division of Korea into 2 parts (South and North), just like East and West Germany, is rather long lived on historical time scales. For that matter, the hope of a peaceful unification needs to be reiterated again and again. The informative exhibition of the Korean Cultural Center to Belgium and the EU highlights the continued “Dream of Peace” which continues even after more than 100 years.

Preventive War

The term “Preventive War” is staging a revival in international politics. The recall of the famous quote “war is the continuation of politics with other means” from Clausewitz encompasses the idea of a pre-emptive strike and entering into war to avoid an enemy to grow too powerful at a later stage. In the age of weapons of mass destruction and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, an intervention to limit the spread of nuclear weapons has taken the form of a preventive war. The international community has been quite unsuccessful to limit the spread of nuclear weapons so far. Research shows that democracies are less likely to go to war than authoritarian regimes and dictatorships.
The preventive war strategy (Levy, 2008), however, is a means for democracies to defend their survival against the spreading and warmongering of authoritarian regimes. However, preventive war, by definition, is a war. The preventive aspects derives from the logic to avoid a much more devastating later war. There is a longitudinal assessment at the base of the calculation to enter now into a preventive war, rather than later into a more difficult defence. In anticipation of the defense, a pre-emptive strike is undertaken. In international politics the lack of a “policing of treaties and international agreements” has initiated the return of the neoclassical concept of national interest as a guiding principle for nation states. A continued threat to the survival of a state, Israel as an example, by the Iranian dictatorship makes the application of a preventive war strategy more likely.
Historically, democracies have applied such military strategies as a continuation of politics and diplomacy with other means. In this sense the 21st century is apparently no different from previous centuries. The revival of “Realpolitik” has been spurred by Putin and his war on Ukraine territory since 2014. How and when to return to the negotiation table is the litmus test of the preventive war strategy.
(Image: Paris, Hotel de la Marine, Le salon diplomatique 2025).

Energetic Architecture

The link between energy and architecture is all to obvious. For at least a century we believed that energy had to serve architecture and could be relegated to second place. With global warming the overriding importance sits with energy concerns for some years to come. We spend billions to repair the bad architectural and fast growth architecture of the post 2WW era of architecture, especially the construction boom of the 60s and 70s. The driver of change in architecture has moved from the period of social architecture (60s, 70s) to energetic architecture. Energy in architecture has multiple dimensions. Whereas a century ago the shift consisted in the installation of central heating systems in the northern hemisphere of the globe at scale, in the 21st century the concern there shifts to isolation from heat (and cold) to more efficient, less polluting energy provision. Cooling houses and office spaces during extended periods and higher peeks of heat, ask for substantial revisions of existent architecture and the next generation of energetic architecture. Before long, we shall also think more seriously about the handling of water in architecture, a topic which is closely linked to energy consumption and design.
From a sociological point of view we are used to ask questions of social inequality related to this issue as well. We are on the way to move into a society of energy-rich versus energy poor households and enterprises. Financing of adaptations of housing and offices to the energetic challenges is likely to create severe additional inequalities, which exacerbate the already existing ones. If you have no money to spare, you will be unable to invest into energy savings with more distant returns on investment (ROI). At older age you are less resistant to heat waves and causes health disadvantages. If previous investments were impossible or the urgency for energetic architecture was neglected for too long, additional health inequalities shall arise.
The “Deutsches Architekturmuseum” has built an exhibition around this theme, which widens the perspective of architecture and energy. This highlights the additional concern for energetic architecture and people living or working in (modern) architecture.
(Image Trier Roman arena 2025)

Global warming

The annual update of the global warming indicators (source: Earth system science data 2025-6) gives more reasons to worry about the future of our climate. The objective to limit global warming to +1.5°C, established at the Paris climate agreement in 2015, is no longer achievable. This is the hard evidence based on the global network of scientific data collections and their projections. Fossil fuels are a major cause, deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions as well (Forster et al. 2025). As a consequence, human-induced warming of average surface temperatures and flows of heat into oceans continue. The first consequences, we witness in many parts of the world already. France is particularly affected (Le Monde 2025-6-20, p.7). What used to be called “natural disasters” is better described as long-term consequences of human-induced global changes like global warming. About time to take our CO2 footprint even more seriously. The “All electric society” can reduce reliance on fossil fuels considerably, as of now.

Fertility Fecundity

The scientific debate around changes in fertility has focused on social, economic and cultural factors to explain the drop in total fertility rates in OECD countries. The baby boom years of the 1950s and early 1960s had come to an end following the spread of new forms of birth control like contraception from the late 1960s onwards. The trend is very obvious and yet, the explanations of the trend might lack a more profound analysis of fecundity in addition to the socio-economic explanations. Shakkebaek et al. (2025) point for example to the little known effects of environmental (pollution) factors on the biological reproduction capability of humans (men and women).
Additionally, psycho-social factors like “the German Angst” fear about future developments in many social and economic fields might have direct effects, but also indirect effects on human biology. We know still very little about such feedback loops or feedback effects. We are more convinced, than we actually have hard evidence, that the BSP, SPB or PSB (B=Bio, S=Social, P=Psycho) spheres are interwoven, but an ambitious research agenda is called for to enlighten the issue. The big invisible elephant in the room might be environmental issues that enter into the fertility equations more than we have expected for many years. A nice working hypothesis for an ambitious and overdue research agenda.

Travel Trumped

The travel and tourism sector of the U.S economy takes quite a hit from Trump‘s anti Canada and Europe tariffs and rhetoric. The Wall Street Journal (2025-6-3) reports data until May 2025  which show a 6% decline in international air travel and a 12% reduction in air arrivals from Europe (reference same period last year). Canadians seem to reduce their travels to the US as well, hitting many regions just across the long joint border. Airline bookings are an early warning indicator, but the more drastic figures are to be expected from the loss of spending tourists do not dispense in the US any more. Additionally, sizeable shares of US tourists travel to other countries due to the disgusting Trump rhetoric and spend their holiday budgets elsewhere. Trump‘s tariffs has focused a lot on redressing the trade balance of goods, but the balance of services like in tourism is worsening day by day now. The political economy of tariffs has multiple feedback effects which are quite hard to predict.

Draft Lottery

For decades the “intergenerational effects of the Vietnam draft on risky behaviors” has been overlooked. Deza and Mezza (2025) identified several changes in parenting styles (PS) due to existence of a draft lottery. PS like uninvolved, permissive, authoritarian become more frequent. Similarly, risky behaviors of their children like smoking, drinking and drug abuse tend to increase. According to this new evidence on an old strategy to recruit military personnel the effects are not only directly on the persons drafted, but have lasting consequences onthe next generation as well. This increased overall the burden of going as well as preparing for war in the societies concerned. In view of the Russian aggression on Ukraine territory the consequences for both countries are considerable and shall be transmitted to future generations as well. Even neighboring countries fear and feel the heat of recruitment for armed conflict.

 

Artist Development

For many artists it takes years before they find their idiosyncratic style. Testing different forms of art before zooming in on a particular style of art is the  common trajectory for most artists. Maybe the art marker and collectors of art are in search of a “defining style” for an artist so the uniqueness becomes more easily identifiable. Being part of a group of artists has been beneficial as well. The “Neue Nationalgalerie” in Berlin makes this development of an artist, in this case Lygia Clark transparent through the organization of a retrospective devoted to her evolution from abstract paintings towards participative and more organic forms of art. Berlin offers to interact with the pieces at the exhibition. You become part of the exhibition and the happening of art instantaneously. The form stays the same, the persons interacting change permanently. The piece of art is never the same. Just the idea of it thrives. In the Corpo Colletivo the performers wear an overall, all of them are linked to each other and movements happen organically as a group rather than individually. This is like a tutorial in sociology as individuals move as part of a collective body and feel the embeddedness and multiple links to other persons (Image: Corpo Collectivo 1970, exhibit in Berlin 2025)

Dream together

Dream together“ is the title of the exhibition of Yoko Ono at the „Neue Nationalgalerie“ in Berlin 2025. The title is an invitation or even an incitement to dream jointly with others. We need to dream of peace on all sides or parties in a war. Start with the dream and then move on to working together on it. The participatory art projects of Yoko Ono are a recurring event in Berlin and at the Neue Nationalgalerie (Cut piece). The installation „Wish Tree for Berlin“ in front of the gallery is popular with visitors who leave hundreds of written wishes to the windy spring days. Origami folding, stone assembling or a simultaneous chessboard playing with all white pieces and fields encourage to imagine a world differently, beyond the treaded belligerent paths. For more inspiration and imagination just continue to the Martin Gropiusbau for more artworks from Ono or just watch the clouds pass by changing the lighting of the olive tree carrying lots of wishes.

Permanently anxious

„There’s a set of forces that want us to be permanently anxious“, is the phrase chosen by Tony Cokes in the exhibit just outside the „Palais Populaire“ in Berlin in 2025-5. International politics and the economic upheaval caused by Trump’s tariffs contribute to the already existing other sources of anxiety like nuclear energy and warfare. Global warming causing more extreme weather events add more man-made reasons for anxiety. The next generations will have to foot the bills we have left to them unpaid. Our current shortsightedness increases anxieties which previous generations have not known of a similar kind or in that combination. 

Community building and solidarity are ways to overcome such overwhelming anxieties. Supranational organizations like the European Union have an even stronger role to play to reassure its people with credible signs of solidarity. We are not alone in the struggle to overcome the anxiety that is creeping up around us. We are certainly stronger together than individually dealing with unspecified fears. „We shall overcome …“

Dysprosium 66

Dysprosium figures as Nr. 66 in the periodic table (short: Dy). This metal was given this Greek name, which translates to “hard to get”. Although more common than gold on earth, Dysprosium is part of the so-called rare earths on earth. Since it is very temperature resistant before becoming fluid and at the same time having good isolation properties, for example against radiation in combination with lead, the nuclear energy industry has a definite use case.
Additionally, wind turbines, electric vehicles and some smart phones use these characteristics of the metal only known to us since the late 19th century.
The major exploitation happens in China and, therefore, the recent tariffs have complicated the trading. Prices tend to rise and products that contain Dysprosium are likely to become more expensive. However, there is the other side of the coin, which means recycling and reuse of Dysprosium is also more interesting to companies. Hence, the price increase will likely enhance circularity of the metal from obsolete products into newer ones. In this respect it is good news that smartphones receive longer updates of their operating systems and security as of 2025-6-20 in the EU. This will also reduce the amount of rare earths needed in the production of the rapidly changing technical specifications of smart phones and tablets. Repairing the devices makes more economic sense before “programmed” obsolescence.
(Image: extract from Willem van der Vliet (attributed), The money counter. early 17th century, Brussels MRBAB).

Marx Home

The home of an influential philosopher, economist and political scientist is not easily presented like a home of a musician, a composer or an author. However, the home of Karl Marx in Trier on the Moselle river succeeds to present the biographical links of growing up in a historic city, the bourgeois upbringing of the young Marx and his formation as an independent and even revolutionary thinker of the economy and society. In 2025 the home is a museum supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foudation with a great online guide and access to additional scientific material. For authors like Karl Marx it is always of interest to follow not only the origin and evolution of the thought process, but also the shifts in the reception of his writings by subsequent generations. This part of the exhibition and an audio guide (downloadable as App).

In 2025 with an apparently ruthless capitalism at work in the biggest economy of the globe, the reminder that the economy is best to be understood as a political economy, which focuses on self-interest and profitable business deals, we find in Karl Marx still a worthwhile reminder of economic development even in the 21st century. The note-taking and studies in Exile in London are well documented in the tiny home and museum. Studying the misery of exploitation in supply chains and international commerce remains a topic of continuing interest as well. 

Retirement Plans

There are debates about the best organization of retirement. The major fault lines lie between public pension systems and systems that are built based on mainly private provision. Retirement plans in either system are subject to constraints. The recent stock market turbulence has increased the amount of uncertainty people face who invested in 401K plans in the US. Some had to take an unannounced hit to their retirement savings due to the loss after Trump’s back and forth policies on tariffs (OECD Pension Outlook). High volatility of stock market prices creates an additional constraint that you are less inclined to retire when your retirement investments have overall a reduced value. You are a bit at the mercy of capital markets even in your retirement decision, irrespective of the difficulty to predict what your retirement funds will yield as returns. Quite an important lesson to keep in mind when comparing retirement systems in OECD countries. It has been all too easy to blame public pension systems for maybe lower short term interests on pension savings. Being subject to an American president concerning your retirement plans is probably not what many countries would like to have. Trump’s choices on tariffs may have consequences we did not expect to affect us so directly.

Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

Value destruction

The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset).

Intimate change

Society changes and with it so does intimacy. The major changes pass through the behavioral changes of persons and sooner or later the whole society adopts such changes as the new normal. Trends of individualization have moved over centuries as the exhibition in the Museum of decorative art (MAD) in Paris demonstrates. At the same time the changed individual approaches to intimacy have become more widely spread quickly over time. Social media have accelerated such new trends again. Social class is yet another intervening variable in this context which created different speeds of adjustment as well as sustaining differences in kind. 

Religious beliefs and practices have made claims about how individuals should handle intimate relationships and affairs. Legal issues are defined by each society to guide moral practices as well. Hence, the sociology of intimacy is a huge topic and comparing societies an interesting topic. The development of intimacy over a person’s life course, however, is given little attention due to a lack of adequate longitudinal data. From the exhibition we are encouraged to think about the relationship of hygiene and intimacy. Bathrooms accompany us throughout our lives and privacy was originally a bourgeois concept. Over the life course we move from dependency to independence and maybe dependency again in very old age. The images (below) from the MAD exhibition range from basics of bath tubs to a painting of Edgar Degas in the background. Instagramer or YouTuber share lots of images and stylized arrangements of bathrooms on social media. It seems that intimacy is moving further into the public domain. 

Apocalypse Depicted

At the beginning of the 21st century we have a renewed interest in depictions of the Apocalypse. “L’Apocalisse di Giovanni” has been illustrated in various Christian monasteries and some traveled quite a bit. The version of the Apocalypse (Link) which was attributed to Cambrai is a copy of the older original version found in the City library of Trèves, which dates back to the year of about 825. A flemish version of the 16th century is to be found at the BNF in Paris. Throughout the centuries the “Apocalypsis”has been reworked. The version of Trèves has the “carolingish” depiction characteristized by a presentation of image on one page and text on another page. Nowadays we are used to futuristic images and have known even worse experiences of apocalyptic events (Nazi terror). Earth quakes or man-made climate change with heating of the planet, storms, draughts and floods testify for the renewed interest in the Apocalypse. Other man-made technological innovations like rockets. atomic bombs, chemical and biological weapons overshadow even the “natural” ones. The potential of AI to cause destruction is not fully assessed until today. Swarms of drones guided by AI might reach apocalyptic levels as well. We just remind ourselves of the bombing of walls of a water reservoir by Russia in Ukraine. The Apocalypse will remain the original example of a horror story and our strange fascination for such texts, images or movies is likely to stay. (Image: extract of anonymous 1st quarter of 9th century. Trier Stadtbibliothek, Schatzkammer. Wikipedia public domain).

Apocalypse
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Art from India

Indian music, art and performances have had a difficult time in traditional western cultures. Based on the historical collections and donations in the BNF, this WEIRD bias is challenged a bit. The focus on performances and art from India of centuries old traditions of high standards could have been a major source of inspiration to wider audiences already. The narrative language of for example dance as Bharatanatyam is a sophisticated ritual of expression. It appears to us like a spiritual performance which reaches our emotions much like our modern ways of expressing and performing. It seems amazing how the western world has omitted looking and listening to other continents. 

Of course, archers have played an important role in Indian culture as well. Such depictions have been common across cultures in previous times. These images can reflect the shared human heritage and this with a global perspective on art history. Flora Willson (2024 in Die Musikforschung) refers to this Indian cultural heritage in her book review and why Italian Opera never really became popular in India. 

(Image BNF, Paris Richelieu in Rotonde 2025).

Expo Disco

The combination of music and dance is a powerful, captivating experience. From folk dance traditions across the globe to ceremonial performances. In the past this combination has often related ro religious practices. Later manifestations include classical ballet, modern dance and disco music and dancing. History is full of examples that have been turned into mass culture. 

Rock on festivals and rap in clubs or hip hop outside have complemented this experience over the last few years. Each time the combination made the popular difference. Therefore the Disco exhibition in Paris just next to the Conservatoire de musique et de dance de Paris and in the building of the Paris Philharmonic is an appreciation and respect to the disco culture, popular mostly during the 70s and 80s. From a sociological perspective the throve by minorities for recognition of their cultural practices and diversity has been a driving force. Andrew Diamond has coined the expression of „disco at the intersection of minorities struggles“ (p.70 exhibition catalog). At the origin of the disco movement, there was the aftermath of the 60s power struggles. Black, women, gay and student protests asked for „all power to the people“. Music and dance were forming identities. Posing and showing off became part of disco. People created and lived their own utopia in glamorous lighting.

Image: Exhibition shop Paris Philharmonic 2025.

Hands-on AI

The use of AI in translation and to streamline texts and preparation of communication has become a common experience. The applications in medical fields are less well known. Scans and checking of skin cancer could be a game changer for many who live far away from the next medical doctor. AI assisted brain surgery is another issue, but a very specialized application. The interface of AI and robotics might be another game changer as such applications where you train the robot with for example weight lifting and transportation charges can contribute to alleviate human skeletons. Handheld devices can guide the robot and data from sensors will complement the learning of the tasks through assistance from AI. Applications are manifold and we have not even seen the most promising ones. The application potential in warfare are particularly troublesome as humans do not necessarily enter into the concern of AI-assisted weaponry. In the social sphere trust is a crucial behavioral and ethical concern. These issues AI can only learn from us. Any attempts to do without human input and control is doomed to fail. We are not indispensable yet, we are simply turning more and more into responsible, supervisory roles. 

(Image: Acatech exhibition with hands-on AI applications, Berlin in collaboration with IQZ and DTM, German museum of technology.)

More eCooking

Cooking powered by electricity rather than fossil fuels like gas is an efficient and smart solution. Through the daily cooking activities over the course of a year the savings due to eCooking add up quite a bit. Even compared to an ordinary electric stove the eCooking by induction technology saves almost an additional 10+ percentage of energy as you heat the pot or pan directly rather than an in-between metallic element, which stores heat even after you have switched it off already for a while. In private kitchens the induction option is straightforward. In professional settings the change to induction eCooking needs careful planning. The health aspect of no burnt gas emissions in the kitchen is, however, a strong argument in favor of eCooking as well.
If we apply this logic to low-income countries and cooking in schools or other institutions as well as companies, the environmental and economic benefits add up quickly. In rural areas where no electricity grid is available or stable enough, the decentralized provision of electricity through for example solar energy creates a cost-effective alternative. In urban areas with high levels of various kinds of pollution the “clean” alternative could make a considerable difference as well.
The eCooking evidence is another pillar of the “all electric society” of the 21st century.
(Image: Rirkrit Tiravanija, untitled (Café Deutschland) and extract from “Freiheit kann man nicht simulieren“, Berlin Martin Gropius Bau, 2024-2025)

Known Unknown

Many musicians and poets remain unknown to larger audiences. “A complete unknown“, young singer, musician and songwriter Bob Dylan has reached fame and fortune with his poetry and popular songs that marked a whole generation. He became the best known unknown of country music in the USA who found sympathy for his expression of protest across the world. „How many times must the canonballs fly, before …“. At the time of renewed militarization of the Western states to defend our way of life, the protest song is oriented towards Russia to stop its war in Ukraine.
The poster in Berlin to advertise the biographical movie on a „Litfaßsäule“ (round sign posting column) dating back to the 1920s in Berlin brings us back into the historical state of mind of crucial crossroads in history. Retreat from war, preventing war and aggression remain topics for us today as well. Peace might be the happy time in between wars marking history.
Berlin is a great place to walk through more than a century of war and aftermath. Rebuilding takes decades and is part of the Berlin state of mind. as well as a sign „to overcome“ conflicts.

Bilingual Plus not WEIRD

The scientific literature on bilingual learning and living experience is abundant. Positive cognitive and social inclusion effects dominate the results. The scientific research has moved on to more tricky questions of bilingualism which shifts gear to multilingual learning. Many people and children are bilingual plus additional contacts to another or several other languages. Multilinguism has been of interest for several scientific disciplines. The effects on cognitive development have received a lot of attention. In order to achieve further progress in the study of multilingual development, it is instructive to move beyond bilingualism and the WEIRD particiants in most psychological studies (WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic). The paper by Omane, Benders & Boll-Avetisyan (DOI) takes this as a starting point and investigates the experience of infants with 2-6 languages.
They establish a protocol how to record the surrounding languages in a structured way. A major distinction into direct and indirect exposure to languages is a major finding. The example from Ghana provides a useful basis for other studies of multilingual experiences. A correct recording of different language inputs in time and of the sources is at the basis for later measurements of effects of different kinds of exposure and intensity of exposure.
(Image: Children’s room in Berlin Museum Martin Gropius Bau 2025)

Unwinding USA

Stock markets move largely due to expectations. Therefore, the mixing of economics and politics can create lots of signals, which are likely to raise price expectations. Inflationary pressures will call for central banks to increase interest rates which will reduce economic activities that are largely financed through the credit market.
The unwinding of the economy reduces turnover and most likely also profits of companies. The fate of Tesla cars in the last 2 months (Link) and the stock market value of Tesla shares (Link) have plummeted. The unwinding of shareholder value and inflation on the rise as well are a the effects of the MAGA narrative and Musk‘s appointment in politics as chief of GOPE.
The „home made recession“ in the US and the choice to prioritize own products might work in the long run, but the costs of the short-term induced inflation will affect vulnerable consumers more than the people who buy many products that show few price increases. The unwinding of the economy of the USA is likely to cause shock waves rippling through the global economy.
Image: Prices to charge e-cars with solar energy in Germany according to sunshine.

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Corruption Caught

In fraud or corruption it is primordial that the probability to be caught is very high to deter potential fraudulent activity. The new Trump administration has enacted as one of the first executive orders that the FCPA stops to take on new cases of suspected corruption as well as reconsider some of the running procedures. In the same vein, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) has been silenced so that American companies to not have to disclose ownership information that fall under the CTA until 2025-3-21 until a major reform will be published.
These policy shifts concern more than just US citizens. The competition between countries will be effected because as companies trading with the US which used US bank accounts were also liable under this legislation and subject to prosecution. The FCPA has been an important example for other countries to follow at least within the Member countries of the OECD. The shift in priorities of the Trump administration might open doors again to corruption which we believed were shut with lasting effect.
In conjunction with the rapid increase in military spending when the capacity for the production of military equipment is slow to increase might increase the risks of corruption talking hold again. Market economies build on fair competition, but less prosecution of corruption introduces a bias into negotiations which works against innovation and competitiveness. We have a hard time to understand any kind of logic in such economic and legal strategies.
Image: Bridge collapsed due ro material defects. Archive Berlin Tempelhof Schöneberg.

Top 5 Things T5T

Dealing with Elon Musk is a must these days (WSJ 2025-2-26 A4).
So it happened that on his way to Mars, Musk met God the almighty on his way back to heaven. Musk asked, whether he could join the ride.
God, not amused, asked Musk about his T5T (top 5 things) he accomplished in his life. Musk questioned God‘s right to ask this question and said he would tell the other T about this. God gave him just another day to come up with a response.
So here we are: the T5T Elon Musk might put forward:
(1) I created a million fancy electric cars.
God: Well, but there were already too many tin boxes on 4 wheels on earth.
(2) I created rockets that propelled billionaires into space and back again.
God: Your carbon footprint has exceeded a million people of the poorest countries on earth.
(3) I created a network of satellites that facilitated communication.
God: Nobody spoke to me yet using it.
(4) I bought Twitter and transformed the platform to spread evangelism of various sorts.
God: This has become a hoax spreading more lies than truth.
(5) I reformed the public sector employees to share my beliefs or leave.
God: This will ruin a lot of services like USAID, which have assisted me for many years in my caring and charitable service.
With all these T5T of yours in mind I am not sure I should let you return to that planet earth. Maybe I‘ll find another assignment for you where you can cause less harm Elon. Maybe, try “Waiting for Godot“.
(Image: instead of T5T try T4T (tea for two))

Insecurity Council

The UN Security Council has been turned into the Insecurity Council. The UN Plenary Session voted with a 2/3 majority on 2025-2-24 the draft Resolution L.10 stating: “Three years after the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the General Assembly today adopted two resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity …”. As part of this resolution the UN General Assembly claims “accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine …”.
The UN Insecurity Council (15 Members, China, USA Russia, F, UK as permanent Members) adopted  almost in parallel with 10 votes in favor and 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom) resolution 2774 (2025) calling for a swift end to conflict. The most notable change in international politics is the changed voting behavior of the USA, which has retreated from an outspoken condemnation of Russia as aggressor and occupant of foreign territory.
The “revealing of masks” in what appears to be a neo-imperialist period of time has come. The set-up of the post  1945 UN institution of the Security Council has lost a major function to prevent armed conflicts and early reaction potential. The force to aim for and guarantee international peace lies much more in the hand of the plenary of the UN rather than the small select Security Council dominated by previous superpowers largely due to their possession of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
The voting of a resolution by the Insecurity Council, which is in contradiction with a resolution of the UN General Assembly concerning the spirit, if not the words, is a source of insecurity itself. A reform of the UN system, which risks to become a “shopping system” of lenient organizations, where you join and leave the organization (UNESCO, WHO, WTO …) will loose impact.
For many people and countries, the only hope for a guarantee of human rights lies with the United Nations Human Rights Charter, peace keeping missions and International Courts. The UN Security Council as an Insecurity Council is likely to let down many people truly seeking a peaceful life.
(Image: The Fall of Icarus, Pablo Picasso, at HQ UNESCO, Paris)