Sometimes, it might well be before during or after presidential elections, you feel like living in a parallel universe. Especially after the U.S. presidential election many people beyond the U.S. have the impression that millions of people have rather strange views of how our living on earth could be worthwhile for all, rather than a few. In a crude and rude election campaign many people in the U.S. must have been alienated from what they imagine a peaceful living together in a country or on our planet. Faced with the brutal language it is soothing and comforting to read books again. Already in 2023 adult fiction has outperformed on the book market in the U.S. “Romantasy” and narrative non-fiction (are the new bestsellers beyond travel books, cooking, children books and comics according to circana.com.
Uncertainty, complexity and plurality, apparently, have destabilised many persons to the extent that foundation texts of religions, predominantly the bible, have become bestsellers again with more than 14 million book sales in the U.S. in 2023 and up to November in 2024. Printed copies as well as specialised editions for children go to new first time readers and buyers as well as replacing older copies. The need to find simplifying answers to basic questions of humanity is on the rise again.
Some persons might wish to find the existence of a parallel universe in studying the bible, others just a retreat from the horrors of daily news on TV and social media, we all consume more than ever before. We are no longer surprised to find the first church in Switzerland, which offers an AI in church which listens and answers to your confessions. Bible apps offer detailed search functions and reading aloud in case you prefer listening.
There are even unauthorised historical translations of the bible on the market in antiques book shops, which achieve exceptional prices.
Of universes, there seem to be many, overlapping and in parallel.
(Image: Reading Magritte on surrealism)
Passing Disasters
We live in rather cynical times. Just like the practice to scroll through hundreds of newspaper pages or social media entries we pass over the reports of of disaster after the other. Whole industries live from the reporting of disasters in a sensational manner. As the speed of reporting via social and online media has increased over the last few years the time to reflect what are the reasons for the multiple disasters has moved backstage. On the forefront are journalists and life bloggers who gain from increased reach and with the duration of their reporting of disasters. These are the first round effects. Second in line are people proposing fast fixes of what seems to be the problem at first sight. A more thorough analytical approach has little chance against the overwhelming effects of disaster imagery. Before the necessary dara and analyses have been carried out by scientists the next disaster already dominates the headlines and images. Flooding and droughts come and go faster due to climate change, but the reactions just del with reporting and capturing of attention rather than analyses. Next follows the blame game. Rather than unity to deal with consequences responsibility gets pushed from one instance to the next. Another cynical twist is the rise in insurance premiums to be paid by all, because the reporting hypes have increased the cost of repairs for insurance companies and after all more people shall seek insurance and have a higher readiness to accept higher rates for disaster insurance. Maybe this is just another more recent chapter of Sloterdijk‘s „Kritik der zynischen Vernunft“, which we witness currently. The effect of passing disasters is often a feeling of helplessness or powerlessness although we need to do just the opposite. Get together and act together after adequate analyses of underlying mechanisms. (Image Aristite Maillol Brussels, MRBAB) 
Sunny Trade
Some countries or regions struggle with trade deficits or trade surpluses, which cause worries to their partners. Eurostat publishes regularly the latest trade figures for the EU with external partners. The EU as a whole has a trade surplus in September in 2024 of € 12 billion. From January to September in 2024 the surplus accrues to 140 billion already. Overall, this is a rather sunny picture of EU trade. As we import raw materials and fossil energy mainly, the rest of the world is largely appreciating what we do with the imports, at least in an economic sense, environmental concerns tend to be neglected in such considerations.
The import statistics and figures do not capture the contribution of the sun to our energy balance sheets. We import energy from the sun almost on a daily basis and our trade statistics to not capture this, despite their huge impact on production and the fossil energy trade imbalance we report each month. Imported energy, the largest negative position in our sunny trade balance, in the EU amounts to € 20 billion per month. Harvesting more wind and solar energy as well as geothermal sources and energy storage require huge investments, but millions of Europeans are willing to contribute to this effort. With rising protectionism we should act now to avoid years of structural trade deficits in the coming years. There should already be more sun in the still sunny trade balance. To keep it that way more sunny trade will do the trick.
(Image from Eurostat, 2024-11-18, Euro area trade balance by product group in billions of €, original states in %, retrieved 2024-11-29)
On Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a catchword for all sorts of undetermined occurrences, which we might have to confront. We associate economic uncertainty with the difficulty to forecast or predict the economic evolution of key indicators like inflation, GDP, CO2-emissions, energy and raw materials’ prices and availability. Even factors like increases in greed of CEOs, psychological factors like insecurity about external or internal conflicts drive these macroeconomic indicators. Micro-level features of your own stage or evolution of the life course have an impact on and will be affected by uncertainty. Employment, housing, family, or household composition are subject to high levels of uncertainty. These micro- and macro- level factors are, of course, not limited to the domain of economic phenomena. Most recently, political uncertainty has reentered the international and national sphere with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This election outcome of the U.S. is perceived by many as increasing the overall uncertainty due to the unpredictability of political decisions and even previous treaties with the U.S. or where the U.S. is a major partner in the agreement. These economic and political uncertainties are accompanied with a perception of growing legal uncertainty even in very personal spheres of life. Last, but not least uncertainty about climate changes like heating up of the planet and more devastating flooding and droughts contribute to increased uncertainty about future developments and the need to initiate adjustment processes and the financing of those.
The individual and societal ways to cope with increased uncertainty are one of the major economic, political, legal and social issues for the coming years. The answers are likely to be found in mutual, cooperative and risk sharing arrangements. The social in society will be a major part of dealing with increased uncertainty. 
(Image: Extrait of Paul Klee, Seiltänzer 1923)
Happy Employee
The research on happiness, subjective well-being or overall satisfaction with your life is also an empirical question. Analyses of being happy donot only focus of overall happiness, but look much more into the details of happiness. Beyond the tricky longitudinal observations of happiness it is common scientific practice to deal with subdomains of happiness like satisfaction of employees with their job, satisfaction with one’s job beyond the honeymoon and hangover effect, best known from family studies.
Each of those subdomains has a significant effect on overall happiness. The novel “Happy Life” by David Foenkinos is an interesting example which focuses mainly on the subdomains of job satisfaction, satisfaction with private and romantic partners as the major domains of a happy life. As developed in the novel, people make job changes to re-orientate professional careers or reset their private life. A low point on the happiness scale in one domain might be compensated by higher levels in another domain. These impact from one domaine to another might have substantial time lags involved as well. More drastic resets (à la Foenkinos) can be avoided through focus on other subdomains of overall happiness as well.
How happy are you with your housing situation, neighborhood, your pet, your physical health? There a multiple +/-spill-over effects to overall happiness. Reading a novel might be one as well, just take time reserved to yourself.(Image BnF expo “women in sport”, 20024)
Fiscal Union
European Integration is slow and hard to come by. For others it is moving too fast (Brexit). Cultural diversity is a real asset of the EU. The economy or the economies are powerful on an international scale. Nevertheless, the diversity concerning the tolerance of fiscal deficits is still widely spread across the Member States of the EU (see image below). Some states seem to play it cool and run relatively high deficits compared to the EU averages. In OECD comparisons most of the above average fiscal deficits are closer to or even below OECD averages over time (link to pdf-file OECD, 2024). Within the EU differences in government expenditure as % of GDP or the indicator of Gross public debt according to the Maastricht Criteria range from 20% to 160% as percentage of GDP. This entails a different level of resilience to future crises. After we managed to leave the previous 3 crises (financial, Covid-19, energy) it is time to prepare for what might come next in terms of challenges. Preparing public deficits to be able to soften economic shocks is essential to be able to sustain yourself and support others. We seem to be a bit off-target to coordinate fiscal deficits across the Union. Eastern and Northern countries have suffienct scope to support expansionist fiscal policies, be it in the realm of a defence union or to address climate change. Southern Europe will find it more difficult to raise additional funds to prepare now for future challenges. Fiscal deficits might even be not only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one as well. If we compare Japan with a deficit running at 240% with South Korea with 50% Asia is showing even larger diversity in terms of fiscal preparedness.
An economist’s stance on fiscal policy and fiscal union might depend much more on her/his region or country of origin than economists might want to believe.
Images: OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c671124e-en. p.17. 
freight transport
The transport of goods is an important and crucial economic sector to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions. According to statistics from Eurostat Total Road Freight Transportation increased by an annual 0.6% percent between 2019 and 2023. Considering the slack during the Covid-19 economic restrictions this is a remarkable development. Most people agree that more freight on rail could allow a much better performance concerning CO2 emissions. This needs substantial investments in infrastructure and intelligent solutions for optimised and accessible freight loading points. The logistics of the last mile for delivery has found many innovative solutions with battery-supported e-vehicles. The tough issue seems to be the production of e-lorries at competitive prices to the Diesel-engines. Considering the legal obligations to take breaks to ensure sufficient concentration of lorry drivers, the battery charging infrastructure has to be planned accordingly. Ports and airports a certainly key infrastructure for freight transport as well. Industry has additional key locations with high freight frequencies and tonne-kilometres. Eurostat data show that EU-wide empty running vehicles account for about 22%. Scope for optimization is, therefore, a continuous challenge for the sector.
E-transportation is high on the agenda in the sector and production of e-lorries a big challenge. There a many positive signs that the sector has taken up the challenge as there are an estimated 100.000 € per year cost advantage of battery-driven lorries compared to traditional ones (Le Monde 2024-9-24 p.16). This is simply a long-term survival issue for the sector. Smart transport solutions add to the productivity potential of the sector in combination with electrification. 
Sufficient
What do we mean by sufficient? Sufficient of what? French philosophers currently debate the topic under the French notion of sobriété (sobriety). They give as English translation sufficiency, but the notions do not match exactly in the usual understanding of the words. In breaking with the economic rationale of more is always better, the idea of having sufficient food, room to live in or social contacts to not feel lonely, the notion of sufficiency hints towards a rethinking of our customary lifestyles. How many trousers are sufficient? Well, as with shoes there might be gender differences or more generally interpersonal differences or preferences to come to the conclusion of how many is sufficient. If we bring in the notion of sobriety in additional, we allow another social and/or ecological dimension. This may redefine what is sufficient based on judgments how much our planet can handle (emissions) and distributional judgments. The western lifestyle of the last 100 years is no role model for other countries to follow. It is urgent to rethink our growth based economic model to develop new socially viable ways of production and consumption. It seems to be a necessary condition to reconsider the notion of wellbeing and wealth from a sufficiency perspective. It is a sobering thought, isn‘t it?
Health GDP
A report by the WHO and the World Bank (2023) on universal health coverage and financial hardship has emphasized the difficulties to reach the goals defined by the strategic development goals (SDGs) by 2030 in this policy field. Moreover, the paper by Mazzucato and Ghebreyesus (2024) invites us to reconsider the importance of health in the overall assessment of development and progress. The authors ask us to “rethink the narrow focus on growth in gross domestic product (GDP) that typically dominates economic decision making”. There is of course a long debate on the status of health, GDP or wellbeing as major policy issues or even foundations of the a state’s major objective. For economists the question has been answered for decades to favor GDP growth and more or less the other objectives can be achieved with a time delay. Recently social scientists have highlighted the overall importance of wellbeing or happiness rather than GDP as stated in some constitutions. Health as an overall objective is another challenge to the existing economic framing of societies. In a traditional economic perspective the health sector is part of the GDP increasing public and private sector of the economy with insurers, equipment and persons contributing to it. On the other hand, health enters into the distribution or consumption part of the economy. Each country strikes its own balance between production and consumption. Put simply, in form of an equation where production equals consumption, health enters on both sides of the equation in each country. On the global, scale the distribution between costs and benefits of health have not narrowed over the past. The challenge for the world population remains steep. Considering unequal population growth across continents, the situation might get worse before it hopefully gets better. We still have to continue huge efforts to increase overall health on earth for example through large scale vaccination programs. (Image The tombstone of Molière in Paris 2024)
Olympic Medals
The distribution of Olympic medals across continents reveals the persistent inequality of rewards across the globe. The first African country in the overall ranking of countries by Olympic medals is Kenya on 17th place. All 11 medals including 4 gold medals were obtained in athletics and in running disciplines 800m and more. The financial resources needed to practice running as high level sport are probably the lowest one of all disciplines. Ethiopia is another African country with this tradition of high level long distance runners on the African continent. Equipment and coaching in other disciplines than athletics involves more infrastructure and becomes more costly and the possibility to reserve infrastructure for elite athletes of a country is more difficult if the infrastructure for the population at large is rather limited compared to the population size. Therefore, the Olympic tradition has to confront the challenge of unequal access to many disciplines of the Olympic Games also in Paris 2024. Being a very good athlete is just not enough if you lack the coaches, training and facilities to be able to compete with the well-equipped countries. The knowledge about the best details of a specific technique or optimization potentials are part of the Olympic challenges as well. The Americas, Europe and Asia might be confronted with new forms or another criticism of imperialist strategies, this time in the domain of sport. The winner or medalists take all. Country rankings appear a bit like the football device “money buys goals”. (Image, Fondation Louis Vuitton, Paris, Extrait of Omar Victor Diop “Diaspora” 2014-2015).
Olympic Flame
The Olympic Games 2024 have started to attract attention long before the actual games. The arrival of the flame on the many stops on the way to Paris is each time an event of its own. The choice of persons who carry the flame and the parcour are carefully chosen and sponsors contribute to finance the ceremonies. With the tradition of the “Tour de France” which started in 1905 in Montgeron, the city in the vicinity of Paris knows how to organize popular events. Like for a marathon large crowds are waiting and watching along the track. Police and life guards watch over participants and spectators. Many volunteers participate to make the event an enjoyable experience for all. The sports competitions of the very specialized athletes make much more sense if many people are encouraged to exercise as well. It is fun and the spirit of the Olympic Games should encourage more people to stay fit. Just a little bit at times helps to improve your health. Daily exercise is a challenge but even more beneficial. The idea of a relay is also stimulating continuity.
Credit donations
“credit” stems from the original latin word “cedere”. In the 1st person you write “credo”, which means I believe. If said in a religious building or church you show with this pronunciation that you believe tbe narrative of the religious community. In the 3rd person “credit” stand for s/he/it believes. In the financial sense it is the receiver of money from your credit card who believes or trusts you that you made an honest payment. Now, banks take commissions from each of these exchanges of trust. You are credit worthy or not. In some churches you now make donations using your credit card to facilitate business. Credit card companies also charge you on your donation. Win win situation we call this. I keep asking myself, whether I still “believe in angles” or only business angles. (Image Église Notre Dame des Victoires Brussels 2024-7)
Sport Fashion
Sport is fashion and fashion is sport. Not only in the Euro 2024 the teams make a big fuzz about the design of their sportswear, but certainly the Olympic games in Paris 2024 will demonstrate the close links between the 2 worlds. We might say playing football is a bit like a fashion catwalk. Keep going right on target, despite obstacles, when thousands of people are watching your performance and potential failures very closely. Making a “bella figura” is a must in both spheres. There is also a strong tendency for “the winner takes all”, that s/he takes the trophy and the jackpot.
Both worlds are also big business in their own right. It is at least 100 years old that sport and fashion got married. The “Musée des arts décoratifs” in Paris had an excellent exhibition on the combination of sport and fashion (booklet link). According to the curators both spheres have always been interlaced. High-level performance and specialized fashion just made for a splendid combination. As the rich and wealthy had more than a penny or two to spend on their leisure activities the combination of sport and fashion soon became itself a big business, beside the visible beauty of the bodies, movements and dresses. Just watch the breakdance fashion as the latest addition to the repertoire of olympic disciplines. In a recent article in “Le Monde” (2024-7-11) the value of the market of sports including its fashionable merchandising is estimated to reach a turnover of € 500 billion in 2022.
The competition of sports has been turned into a competition of the best images and videos. Fashionable as well as functional clothing can assist in climbing the podium. In the Euro 2024 Football Final the teams equipped with Adidas (Spain) and with Nike (England) compete for the trophy. Changing equipment sponsorship from one to the other can raise substantial amounts for a team (€ 100 million/year for the German national team). Big business seems to take over sports and fashion after the century-old marriage of sport and fashion. Since then, they have jointly been on an extended honeymoon. (Image from www.emptyspacetm.com 2024-7)
Beggar thy neighbour
Modern economics has developed the concept of so-called external effects. The oldest version of it might also be referred to as “beggar thy neighbour”, as it was coined by Adam Smith the founder of classical economics. This describes an economic policy which does not care to make your neighbours worse off by enriching yourself. Applied to environmental economics or to regions, cantons or neighboring countries, this means a ruthless pursuing of investments, which are known to shuffle a large part of the costs onto other regions through damages, might be pursued nevertheless. This might be a valid hypothesis to test how the investment in skiing at high altitudes, increases the risks of flooding at the lower altitudes of rivers or valleys. There is scope for a redistribution of wealth from one region to another. The poor neighbor, however, is in a rather weak position to claim compensation as the link between the 2 events is hard to establish scientifically and mediated by an abstract form of overall climate change. The recent example from Switzerland adds to an increasing number of natural disasters, which are in fact man-made following a beggar thy neighbor rationale. (Image newspaper reading room in Stabi Berlin with NZZ from 2024-6-24).
Smoking Vaping
Both smoking and vaping are big business. Nicotine is well known for its addictive capacity. Once started, it is very hard to give it up again. For many decades we devote considerable efforts and costs to encourage people to give up on smoking or, better, not to start smoking in the first place. The young are particularly vulnerable as damages persist for a longer time. Progress has been made to reduce passive smoking of children and people in restaurants, at work and public spaces. The relatively recent trend of vaping instead of smoking is considered less harmful, but scientific long-term evaluations, whether these effects are lasting for several years, are still missing.
A repeated cross-section study in England (Tattan-Birch et al. 2024) has revealed that the declining trend of nicotine use has already been reversed among youth due to the rise in vaping. Vaping seems to move from the fashionable niche product to the popular mainstream among youth. The addicts are only cost-sensitive on the margin. The relative prices of smoking and vaping might play a role to put people on different health trajectories. The question is not between either smoking or vaping, but for some it is both, although it should be none of both. The question of smoking yes/no is likely to be framed as either vaping/or smoking. The re-framing of the question shows the harmful potential in the longer run. We shall have a hard time to convince people and particularly youth not to be tempted by either/or but to focus on their long-term health trajectory and potential. (Image: Extrait from Arnold Böcklin, Self-portrait with death playing the violine 1872, Alte Nationalgalerie Berlin) 
Aussensicht Innensicht
Die Sicht vom Skulpturengarten der Neuen Nationalgalerie auf die laufende Ausstellung „Zerreissprobe…“ erlaubt einen tiefen historischen Einblick in die 1980er Jahre. Die Sammlung von Postern des Künstlers Klaus Staeck zeigen die bewegenden Themen der achtziger Jahre. Frauenrechte, Umweltschutz, Sicherheit sowie Medienwirtschaft. 40 Jahre später beschäftigen uns weiterhin, Lösungen für die plakatierten Themen zu finden. Images können Themen so zuspitzen, dass Anklagen daraus werden. Texte sind im Vergleich zu der Eindrücklichkeit der Bilder ein vergleichsweise stumpfes Schwert. Es ist aber gerade die Verbindung von Bild und Text, die Eindrücke verstärkt. „Meme“ Creators sind ein standard tool das die Kommerzialisierung und die Promotion weiter befördert haben. Kunstformen hatten diesen Trend bereits vorweggenommen.
Adaptive Expectations
In economics it is important to understand the concept of adaptive expectations. We all form expectations about prices and inflation, but there is more than just simple expectations. These expectations guide our behaviors in many domains. If we expect a drastic price change for goods and/or services we shall most likely modify our behavior in response. We might want to advance a purchase to take advantage of currently lower prices in the expectation of higher costs later on. Most people would follow the price changes on a regular basis and adapt their expectations according to the updated information. It is an important process as there are millions of people who do this and this process drives price levels in many countries. In Europe we would like to see not only inflation, but also expectations about inflation to be around the target level of 2% per year. After the high price rises of energy and food (Putin’s war) as well as the disrupted supply chains (Covid-19 crisis) we were unsure, whether we would have to adapt our expectations for the coming years. The credit crunch in the last few years forced people to adapt spending plans and expenditures. We seem to have overcome these major crises due to rapid adaptive expectations. The crucial mechanism to achieve this is a timely and open communication of changes. Media have a role to play to not only spread the information, but to explain underlying reasons. This contributes to a widespread understanding of basic economic principles that helps countries to navigate stormy weather. It is like players of chess who adapt their strategy after the other player has acted or not according to their expectations. It’s simple, isn‘t it?
Bikenomics
There is a whole cluster of enterprises associated with bicycles. Selling a bike is only the first we might think of. Repair works are the most tricky part of bikenomics, a bit like bidenomics. In many cities during spring and summer it is even more difficult to get an appointment for bicycle repairs than for a doctor’s appointment, and that can be hard at times. Shortages of skilled technicians are pervasive in this sector. DIY for do it yourself is the best alternative. With the arrival of e-bikes and the digital connectivity the skill set has been enhanced recently as well. Insurance for bikes, lockers, helmets, airbag system or clothing including spectacles are part of the standard safety and security set of bicycle riders nowadays. Many, many job opportunities there and the willingness to pay for bicycles has steadily increased over the last years.
Berlin has just seen its 48th bicycle demonstration in 2024-6 on roads including 2 motorways with several ten thousands of participants. In a star like fashion multiple tracks met at the city center. The final meeting with stands and information was at the Deutsche Technik Museum with refreshments and repairs. The exhibition of cargo bikes and taxi bikes or “rickshaws” was another highlight. We need to rethink our mobility concepts and try to get the sharing to work more comfortably. For different purposes and activities you need a different bike. Ownership of each is no longer adequate as for example with aging alone your preferences for mobility with bikes also changes. Sharing is caring and this is also part of bikenomics.
Cars electrified
It is not only cars, but the whole automotive industry that got somehow electrified. The U.S. have imposed a 100% tax on electric cars produced in China recently. Europe is feeling the heat as well (compare Fressoz in Le Monde 31.5.2024). Production of cars is not a for fun activity. It is firmly embedded in our economic system which believes in profit maximization even at high environmental costs. Therefore, the production of cars follows the logic to build cars that generate the highest profits. Bigger cars yield bigger profits and this has been known for decades. Why should we expect our car producers to deviate from this logic. Investors push hard in this direction as well. Small e-cars generate small profits. This can only be economically valid if large numbers are produced. China’s home market has the market size and air pollution levels that make this a viable strategy also for the lower income people. If not sold in the US or Europe, the home market is able to absorb huge amounts of electrified cars. Downsizing of cars needs to happen particularly in inner cities. The implementation of this is not going to be easy and without resistance.
Killing me softly
The problem with pollution is, it is killing you softly from inside. It is almost impossible to escape air pollution as it is pervasive in cities, but also in the countryside where you do not expect it that much. This is the result of the study by Kuzma et al. (2024) published in “The Lancet Regional Health Europe”. Based on a data set of 8 million persons from Eastern Poland the effects of air pollution on myocardial infarction incidence was analysed. The use of the “European Union’s Earth Observation Programme” contributed data on air pollutants like PMs, BaP (benzo(a)pyrene), SO2 and NO2 concentrations. The multi-level data of 5 voivodeships, 101 counties, and 709 communities in Poland allows to differentiate the effects of damage to the heart tissue on cardiovascular disease. The other well-known factors are arterial hypertension, diabetes, obesity, chronic kidney disease, hyperlipidaemia, and smoking as most of us know already. The effects of BaP (benzo(a)pyrene) is shown for rural areas despite the lower observed traffic density in these areas. The killing occurs softly from within our bodies by just breathing in and out, and in and out continuously. The disease burden in these regions is observed with “recorded 63,154 hospitalizations and 5921 in-hospital deaths (9.4%) due to STEMI; and 76,543 hospitalizations and 4079 (5%) in-hospital deaths due to NSTEMI”. In short, the need to reduce air pollution further is an urgent demand that saves lives eventually.
(Image from public domain wikipedia or “do-it-yourself” here).
May 1st
More people take to the streets on the 1st of May in Germany. The costs-of-living crisis with high inflation has increased the claims for pay rises for workers and adjusted wages for employees. We all have observed “greedflation”, i.e. excessive company profits in several sectors. Additionally, “shrinkflation” has affected consumers in their daily shopping experience. Political efforts to curb inflation have taken a long time to come about and most initiatives have ended already (Energy sector). This spurred a new drive for trade unions to come out in huge numbers to protest and claim adequate wage increases to cover the increased costs of living. In Germany the DGB informed on the annual 1st of May demonstrations across the country about a strong new entry movement of members of 400.000 persons. It is higher than the loss of members of the large baby boomer cohorts who retire.
Through a broad and engaged membership the pressure on higher wage settlements will persist. Companies have used the crises to generate extra profits. It is only fair that those employees who largely contribute to the success of a company will claim their share as well.
For society as a whole it is important to consider that the discrepancy between managerial pay and shop floor wages do not increase further. The social fabric of societies is in danger if perceived injustices grow. More radical forces can all to easily exploit this causing a severe danger for democracies. Meeting people on the 1st of May and joining forces across sectors and trades ensures that a society continues to build and rely on solidarity. High inflation times are a great reminder of the economic basics of societies in history as well as today. 
Comparative Advantage
In economics all students go through the calculus of comparative advantage. People, regions or whole countries tend to apply comparative advantage to their production systems and ensuing internal or external trade. The basic rationale developed by David Ricardo has not changed that much over 200 years. The fields of application, however, are continuously expanded. Lindsay and Gartzke (2020) have applied the comparative advantage rationale to military strategy. The paper quotes 26 times Clausewitz and demonstrates the links of strategy to the basic economic and social rationale of comparative advantage. It is the politics of production that even the presence of trade may override the rationale of comparative advantage to favour local production of “operational domains” or military equipment.
In Russia’s aggression and war against Ukraine own production and trading of weapons has returned to the forefront of the concerns. In addition to the production of ammunition, the provision of drones has dominated the international arms trade related to the Russian aggression. Resources and time for production are additional factors that have an impact on availability of weapons at the right time at the right place and with the sufficiently trained persons to operate them.
The strategies that cross domains or combine domains seem the most promising. The careful analysis of your own comparative advantages or disadvantages needs to be the basis of any strategic decisions. This has been known for 2 centuries at least and is still valid in many fields of application. Additional considerations for “home production” might add to the complexity of the issue. Sustainability has also found its way into the field of comparative advantage at last. This may alter the analysis of comparative advantage of operational domains as well. Lots of unresolved puzzles still around. It will need years to sort this out despite the urgency of the Russian aggression on Ukraine.(Image: AI Copilot.2024-4-30 2 political leaders deal weapons. One has a comparative advantage in ships. The other one has a comparative advantage in aircrafts. they deal together)
AI Disruption
Many scientists started to question the disruptive potential of AI in, for example, the military’s domain. The Journal of Strategic Studies featured 3 papers on AI and autonomous systems more generally. The major argument by Anthony King is the reliance of autonomous systems on other systems mainly human operators even in the background to get these systems off the ground and maybe back again. Not only logistic support but also satellite communication is needed to guide and protect the operations. In quoting Clausewitz, Anthony King stated that war is a “collision of two living forces”. Strategy and counter-strategy will co-evolve as will attack and defence.
Jackie G. Schneider and Julia Macdonald (2024) advocate the use of autonomous and unmanned systems for their cost effectiveness. Economic costs as well as political costs are lower for these new strategic weapons. Mass fire power from swarms of drones is much cheaper than nuclear warheads and the home electorate is assumed to be more willing to accept and support limited and more precisely targeted unmanned missions. The disruption potential of AI is huge but it is most likely an addition to the arsenals than replacing them. (Image 2 swarms of drones fly in the air above tanks, created by AI – copilot-designer 2024-4-29).
Fertility Growth
The first association of fertility and growth is likely the growing of fertility rates in a country or region. Only macro economists associate the growth or decline of fertility with the macroeconomic consequences of more or less economic growth. Countries with higher fertility rates in most cases have higher growth rates as parents spend more on food, clothes, mobility and education. Accommodations are changed, adapted and refurbished. Estimates of increased consumption per child by economists range from 500.000 to almost 1 million in the highest developed countries. Children are a country’s wealth, but they also cost a fortune in monetary terms. Good news for the economy if families keep spending independent of economic cycles. More children keeps dedicated shops running or even a whole sector of the economy. In recessions the downward pressure in this sector becomes an additional challenge not only for the families but with ripples-on effects for the whole economy and society. If you see shops closing which has sold furniture for children for the last 15 years then the realization of an economic downturn becomes also more real. Sometimes the parallels in the news of declining fertility and increases in pensions do not square well with the fitness for the future or the future orientation of a society. Democratic voting rights that give families more weight in elections could change this. It is not yet on the political agenda.
Mehr vom Meer
Wir sollten uns mehr um das Meer kümmern. Länder ohne Küsten finden meistens wenig Gründe, warum sie sich um das Meer bemühen sollten. Es ist doch so weit weg. Weit gefehlt. Erderwärmung erhöht die Meerestemperaturen und das wiederum beeinflusst massgeblich die Regenfälle im Inneren der Kontinente. Wir sitzen buchstäblich alle zusammen in einem Boot. Historisch betrachtet war das Meer mindestens seit der Antike Teil des machtpolitischen Kalküls der Beherrschung der Welt und der sie Bewohnenden. Wirtschaftliche Interessen waren ebenfalls Bestandteil der Erkundung und Eroberung des Meeresraums. Die Hansestädte in Europa bieten dazu noch heute gute Beispiele. Nach dem Sklavenhandel sind heute die Überseekabel und Rohstoffe des Meeres die begehrten Schätze des Meeres. Der Artenreichtum der Tiefsee wird erst seit kurzer Zeit intensiver erforscht. Externalisieren von Kosten des Umweltschutzes zu Lasten unserer Meere hat noch wenig Berücksichtigung in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft gefunden. Tourismus- und Migrationsströme zum Meer, auf dem Meer und über das Meer stellen uns vor große Herausforderungen. Wir werden sicherlich mehr über das Meer reden müssen, und das ist keine Mär. Image aus „Europa und das Meer“ (DHM).
