US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.
Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals? These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).
