Tag: balance

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Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

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Korea relieved

On Saturday 14th of December 2024 the Parliament of Korea voted with 204 out of 300 votes, the required 2/3 majority of the parliament to dismiss the president. The declaration of martial law has been the most serious attack on democracy in Korea since its founding in 1987. It is the 3rd impeachment of a Korean president in this short time of democratic life cycle. After impeachment the constitutional court has to confirm the impeachment also with 6 out of 9 judges in favor of impeachment. In 2017 the judges confirmed the impeachment of a president due to corruption charges, but in 2004 another president was reinstated after illegal campaigning charges were retracted. Democratic procedures hinge on checks and balances in the constitutional set up of a state. Nominations, votes of confirmation of judges are important safeguards against illegal martial laws to restrict or even abandon democracy. Pressure from the street, the people at large, is another safety net of democracy. It should not be the last resort for democracy’s survival as it is likely to come at high costs of human lives.

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Sleeping

Sleep is a process. That is why it is best to talk of sleeping rather than sleep. There exists abundant research on sleep and more and more acknowledge the process-like characteristics of sleep. The medical literature deals a lot with sleep apnoea, which constitutes a serious health condition. Time use surveys establish links between daily activities and sleeping for example. The social context is another influence on sleeping. Friends and family co-determine sleeping patterns as well. The latest better understood impact on sleeping depends on the use of technological devices before and during sleeping. Smart phones reveal themselves as not so smart if it comes to the quality of your sleep. At least this the result of the study on „bedtime technology use on sleep quality and excessive daytime sleepiness“. It yet another field in which technology is slowly creeping under our skin and we have to learn how to handle negative side effects before they endanger our physical as well as mental health. Bedtime routines or reading without a screen before falling asleep appears to be a worthwhile way to improve sleeping. Worth trying out again and again.

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Instability

In political science the stability- instability paradox is much discussed (paper with game-theoretic analyses). The reliance on nuclear weapons, supposed to enhance stability in the world order, is rather driving the instability making conventional wars even more likely. Michael Beckley argues that containment of China’s expansionary policies is needed to avoid even more disastrous confrontations (Foreign Affairs, 2023 Nr.5).
Different from the German cold war doctrine “Wandel durch Annäherung” Beckley argues that commerce has not brought US and China closer together, but it is actually driving them further apart. After decades of trade imbalances with China the economic power of China can be felt as overwhelming. But there are multiple risks to its economic model and strategic interests to secure raw materials from across the world. Aging of China is another economic and social fallacy difficult to overcome with short-term measures.
We are about to witness another couple, triangular or more relationship to establish as “enduring rivals”. This may last for centuries rather than decades, although the French- German couple has managed quite successfully to turn such rivalry into an “entente” relationship of importance to the whole European continent. The shift in emphasis of US foreign policy is going to be significant. Containment with Russia has worked, so why should it not work with China as well. The likely answer is demographics again. The size of the internal market of China is sufficiently large to continue a splendid isolation after heavy one-sides trading is over. State control of the internet and social scoring of the population is also a powerful tool to suppress the formation of free will and independent opinions. After all, instability in external relations might even be used to ensure internal stability. Such strategies are common to all political systems. The stability- instability paradox is staying with us and this is rather stable even if the discussion changes continents. (Image: Comical battlefield Map 1854, by Berendsohn shown at Waterloo, Museum 2018)

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Auenlandschaft

Die Auen und die Wälder in der unmittelbaren Nachbarschaft hatten eine hohe Bedeutung für die Biodiversität. Mit ihren fruchtbaren Böden waren sie leider sehr begehrt für die Landwirtschaft und wegen Wassernähe auch für Wohnungsbau. Die Auen haben eine wichtige Funktion als Aufnahmefläche für Hochwasserschübe an allen Binnengewässern. Das haben wir in Deutschland an der Ahr schmerzlich wieder erleben müssen. Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften mit den Auen statt gegen die Auen ist möglich. Selbst der langsame Rückbau von befestigten Flussufern ist möglich, wenn Ausgleichsflächen für Überflutungen erschließbar sind. Das braucht eine langfristige Planung. Diese fängt meistens auf den umliegenden Bergen und Hügeln an, die nicht mehr nahezu ungebremst große Wassermengen rasch in die Flüsse ableiten. Auffangbecken, die höher gelegen sind, Versickerung, die nachhaltig bewässert, sind verbundene Planungsvorhaben, die zusammengenommen eine wirksame Antwort auf den Klimawandel bilden.
Auen haben feuchte- und wärmeregulierende Funktionen, die den umliegenden Dörfern und Städten zu Gute kommen. Elektrisch betriebene Schiffsmotoren drehen leicht mit höheren Drehzahlen und Vermeiden dadurch zusätzlich die hohen Heckwellen, die sonst oft bei langsam drehenden großen Schiffsschrauben zu beobachten sind. Als Naherholungsgebiete sind die Auenlandschaften sehr beliebt und nicht erst seit den Malenden der Romantik. Die größere Biodiversität sollte eine Antriebsfeder sein, diese Naturschönheiten zu bewahren und, wo möglich, wieder herzustellen. Leipzig hat das erfolgreich durchgeführt (Link PDF). In Frankreich tragen die Rückhaltebecken der Marne wesentlich zur Verbesserung der Wasserqualität der Seine bei damit mittelfristig darin sogar wieder gebadet werden könnte.

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Calendar Time

We all use calendars to organize our time almost unconsciously. This is helpful to organize and synchronize our time together. Working time, family and individual time tend to use the same time structure to facilitate community. Work arrangements depend a lot on a common method to structure time. The work-life balance hinges a lot on synchronization of calendars and joint time slots. Towards the end of the annual vacation period in Europe the annualized change of calendars is still common practice despite most people going digital. Annual overviews allow to allocate and potentially synchronize calendars for major events or periods (next break, period devoted to learning, family planning etc.). A cleavage that differentiated Europe in the analogous times was that some countries like Germany use(d) chronological calendars running from 1st of January until 31st of December and counting calendar weeks (1-52). Many other countries have long ago moved on to “functionalist” calendars running based on the school year from 1st of September to 31st of August each year. Different planning horizons appear to be the obvious outcome. Whereas the former might focus on the planning of the end of the calendar year 2023, the latter functionalist calendars begin to structure the new year-long period 2023-24 including the next summer break towards the end of the next schooling year.
In France you start end of August 2023 to plan ahead until end of August 2024. This comprises the Olympic games in Paris 2024. Don’t worry, most tickets are sold out already and attributed through lotteries. When people in Germany start to buy calendars for 2024 and organize a printed calendar, this occurs traditionally around Christmas time and New Year’s celebrations.
Specific professions follow their own calendar time. Academic years or accounting years may well differ from the other annualised organisation of time through calendars. Of course, religions have established their own calendars just as migrating birds or French revolutionaries in the 18th century. Meteorological calendars or sensor-based structuring of annual sequences of seasons like in trees, plants or insects add to the impression of the existence of multiple clocks.
A de-synchronisation of these multiple calendars increases the need to coordinate societies within or society and the economy, religion or ecology. I liked my printed calendars over the years. Now I shall print different versions for different countries and functions. I still wonder, if my life got easier or more complex. Probably, it has only become easier to organise complexity and diversity. Clock 6 video

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Sei ganz ruhig

Sei ganz ruhig. So heißt das kurze Gedicht von Angela Krauß und auch die erste Zeile. Es hat mich seit einiger Zeit schon begleitet.
Gerade der Eintrag zum Himalaya und den Besteigenden des Mount Everest hat mir die Zeilen erneut in Erinnerung gebracht. Für einige wenige besteht das Leben immer noch aus Sensationen. Immer höher, immer weiter, immer schneller. Dabei wissen wir, unser Planet hält das nicht aus.
Unsere Einkaufsmeilen suggerieren uns ein Übermaß an verpassten Gelegenheiten, wenn wir jetzt nicht zugreifen. FOMO (fear of missing out) ist allgegenwärtig und ein viel zu erfolgreiches Marketingkonzept, dem sich kaum eine Person entziehen kann. Die Selbsteinschätzung der Zeit, die uns verbleibt bis zum Tod (perceived time till death) oder unseres spezifischen Sterblichkeitsrisikos bezüglich Vermeidbarkeit oder allgemeinem Risiko, beeinflusst „unbewusst“ unser Verhalten. In Vergangenheit verhaftet sein, ist keine Lösung. Das Leben wird vorwärts gelebt, und rückblickend verstanden.
Bei einem gelegentlichen Rückblick wird vielen bewusst, es hat sich viel angesammelt (nicht nur im Keller). Aber mehr, muss es nicht werden, anders schon, besser vielleicht. Als Hommage an Angela Krauß mal ein 7-Zeiler, beeinflusst von der Konferenz im Europäischen Parlament „Beyond Growth“ im Mai 2023. Ruhig werden und ruhig bleiben, sollten wir beständig versuchen.  Klein- statt Großschreibung, flache Hierarchien, Gleichstellung bei Wörtern und Sätzen. Warum noch Satzzeichen? Denk dir deine Welt, wiedewiede wie sie dir gefällt.

bleib ruhig
bleib einfach ruhig
la vie est belle tel quel
hab keine angst was zu verpassen
es bleiben jahre zu verweilen
schau mal umher
da ist viel

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Immune system

A brief review of the press on the coronavirus 3 years after its first appearance shows that we have learned to live with it. Everyone has found the personal way to balance exposure to risk and protection against infection. Long-term consequences are severe for pupils. Many lost friendships, were lonely at home and accumulated missing out on peer advice or effective teaching. 
Overall, strengthening of the immune system is another more complex issue. Some people swear by masks and others keep washing hands, or both. More rare is the vaccination approach against COVID-19. The evolving virus seems to adapt to a seasonal pattern as the influenza had done decades ago. The term seasonal greetings nowadays has an additional flavor to it. We have come out of the 3rd year of the pandemic reasonably well. Preparing for the next winter is left to the scientists to study the ever new variants arising, probably in parts of the world where winter is just beginning. Working on our immune system’s strength, however, is up to us. Happy Walking and cold Showering. 2 real newspapers, 3rd one “Pastiche” exposé à la BnF, Paris April 2023.

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Walk after Work

Walking after work is a kind of medicine. Blood pressure calms down about 30 minutes after the walk. Light exposure contributes to higher melatonin levels, which lets us sleep better. Oxygene and humidity purify the office and street dust we inhale during the day. It is largely free of charge for everybody and just needs some appropriate clothing. A rainbow is nice to admire, but it does come with some rain somewhere between the sun, you and the rainbow. The oak trees are admirable kind of trees. In spring they appear like sculptures with numerous branches out of branches. The big one on the photo below has a diameter of 125 cm, pretty senior to the others around. A flowery finish complements the walk after work in spring. As variant of the folk saying, I would suggest: Visiting your favourite tree every day keeps the doctor away. Of course I like my doctor, too.

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Musée quai Branly

“Musée du quai Branly – Jacques Chirac” receives relatively few visitors compared to the much more popular art museums in Paris. The proximity to the Eiffel tower, however, allows easy access within walking reach from the most visited tourist attractions in Paris. A cheeky impression of the design of the building and surrounding gardens of the Museum resemble to me a shadow of the Eiffel tower in the afternoon sun in Paris. Some might even say with a westerly wind the tower would fall exactly on the museum. No, of course the tower is not tumbling. In the shadow of the tower there is superb place to meditate in the gardens or enjoy the many exhibitions of cultures from across the world. In remembrance of former President Jacques Chirac, Asian cultures have had a strong impact on the collections and the organisation of the garden. Very different from the French park “à la Le Notre” at Versailles or Fontainebleau, the garden of the museum du quai Branly follows a completely different design focusing on bio-diversity. The architect “Jean Nouvel”, is quoted having said, that the garden is not a complement to the museum, but the garden is the museum. Hence, it is possible to have very unexpected views not only from the museum buildings, but also of the Eiffel tower nearby. It is possible to view the Eiffel tower through different continental perspectives on it. To the extent that you might not even recognize the massive tower in the neighbourhood being immersed into wild life. Then try one of the special expositions or the permanent exhibition, if visiting for the 1st time. We travelled continents without devastating CO2 effects. Additionally, Paris is easy to reach by train. You may complement the intercontinental experience by visiting the headquarters of UNESCO, at least the book shop, in Paris also nearby.

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Schaukel

Sagt die Lehrperson zur Schulklasse: Stellen wir uns alle jetzt mal alle eine Schaukel vor. Wie sieht die Schaukel denn so aus? Was gibt da so drumherum? Könntet Ihr nun bitte versuchen, die Schaukel auf ein Blatt Papier zu malen? Jeder hat seinen Bleistift und einige Buntstifte dabei. Einfach mal versuchen, es gibt keine Noten dafür. Es soll Spaß machen und wer möchte kann sein Bild anschließend den anderen zeigen. Schön, sofort wird es ganz laut in der Klasse und alle legen los. Naja, fast alle, das stille Mädchen aus einer der hinteren Bänke stockt und wirkt unruhig. Sie ist erst seit einigen Monaten in der Klasse und spricht noch nicht wirklich wie die anderen die Ortssprache. Da liegt wohl an der langen Reise, die die nicht mehr ganz so Kleine hinter sich hat. Die meisten Jungen und Mädchen erklären zugleich recht lautstark welche Schaukel sie malen werden. Die vom Garten hinterm Haus, vom Spielplatz nebenan oder sogar die Schaukel unterm Baumhaus im angrenzenden Waldstück. Bei den meisten Kindern steht rasch die Schaukel nicht mehr im Mittelpunkt der Kurzgeschichten, sondern die Freunde oder Kinder mit denen sie gemeinsam schaukeln. Nur unser stilles Mädchen erinnert sich mehr an ihren Reiseweg, bis sie dort in dieser schönen bunten Schule angekommen war. Das waren viele Stationen, von denen sie gar nicht erzählen möchte oder gar ein Bild malen möchte. Die meisten Erinnerungen war so, dass sie diese lieber für sich behalten wollte. Zu weit weg waren sie von den aufgeregten Erzählungen und fantastischen Geschichten der anderen MitschülerInnen. Doch dann hatte sie doch ein Bild vor Augen. Ein Spielplatz in einer großen Stadt, Berlin genannt, ist ihr in Erinnerung geblieben. Als sie diese Schaukel grob, ohne Farbe nur mit Bleistift auf das Blatt skizzierte, keiferte der Banknachbar schon: So sieht doch keine Schaukel aus! Die Neue kann noch nicht mal eine Schaukel malen. Das stille Mädchen blieb weiter still, wusste sie doch genau, dass ihre Schaukel eine Überraschungsschaukel war. In der großen fremden Stadt war ihr diese Schaukel aufgefallen, denn sie war fast so schön, wie die Schaukel an dem starken Ast des Baumes, im Garten ihrer Großeltern. Dadurch verknüpften sich ihre vielschichtigen Erinnerungen zu einem Bild. 

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