Time Concepts

Tell me about your concept of time. How do you define time? Answers to this question are likely to depend on your upbringing, affinity to a specific scientific discipline or epistemological belief(s). Aristotle defines time to be subordinate to the more basic principle of change. To understand change we need the concept of time. Two points in time define time, intermediate points are possible, which might be interpreted as a precursor of infinitesimally short spells of time. To explain change, Aristotle refers to his concept of time. Other concepts of time build on the notion of succession of events or sequences of events.
Clocks going round in circles have been used to show the progression of time independent of events. Beams of atoms later allowed for more precision of time keeping. The prevalent concept of time still is dominated by the idea of time as an arrow, usually depicted in some diagram resemblance based on the Cartesian coordinate system, but usually starting at 0 or a particular point in time as diagrams in economics.
Following on from the old concept of change and time, we still claim for causality in most day-to-day experiences or for social processes the link to a chronological progression of time. In statistical analyses building on time-stamped occurrences we may use event history analyses or stochastic differential equations to analyze (social) change depending on one or several (earlier) factors. Even the theory of deterministic chaos, which is applied in weather forecasts for example, arises from the sequence of point of measurements.
Mainly since Isaac Newton we cherish the notion of a universal time, which helps us to coordinate different locations on our planet with reference to the Greenwich mean time. Other concepts of time make use of infinity of time and how to deal with this. Life before, or life after death, are human constructs trying to make time understandable or at least manageable for us beyond our own living time. Depictions of time in the arts, paintings or music opens up yet another vast space of thinking about, as well as, experiencing time. We did have and still do have a great time thinking about time.

Mindmap Me

Tools like artificial intelligence allow all sorts of transformations and depictions. The photo editing tools are widespread and particularly popular among the young users. My own transformative exercises, latest with www.bairbe.me, have yielded interesting insights, well worth an intergenerational playmate. For the guys there is the www.yobrick.com version for brick gamers.
The App “Canvas” allowed me to delve deeper into my own mind by giving instructions of how to create an image of the structure of the blog entries on this webpage. Of course, it is not (yet) a real AI-generated content map, but it is only a matter of time until such tools will exist. After all, this would be just an arranged and rearranged list of contents using the hyperlink structure of the texts as well.
For the time being, I derive my own structure of the blog entries by topics, categories and tags including the hyperlinks or internal referrals. Interlinkages are mostly stated explicitly. However, there are many implicit links, which are obvious to some, but not others. AI-systems could use occurrences of words,  synonyms and antonyms . Colors in addition to bubble sizes and (in)direct lines may complement such mindmaps. This can help to reveal another, additional layer to connections between categories or tags. The Ai-generated image shown below was created with the APP Canvas as a first approximation and AI-augmented test version in form of abstract images).
Next steps on the way to understand human intelligence and, maybe, augment it with a next generation AI-system would use a colored-3D version of such a mindmap and use the chronological evolution of the blog posts in a kind of evolutionary animation. This should allow us to go beyond the usual psychological classification of fluid and crystallized intelligence. We might come to grips what it means to be “in a Paris state of mind” or when hallucinations become overwhelming.

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Corridorisation Connectivity

In some cities, “I love Paris” (Jazz Song), we admire the “breath-taking” large corridors, right in the centre of the city. This has been the outcome of the urban planning in the 18th century. Haussmann designed large parts of Paris with huge corridors despite the medieval narrow streets in some of the arrondisements”. Ease of traffic, fewer riots and representative housing became the new mantra of urban planning and superb boulevards.
In the 21st century it is about time to question the notion and social process of corridorisation. This has been accomplished in a paper by Fatima Tassadq et al. (2025). Modern infrastructure like fibre-optic cables, energy or water networks are easiest to deploy in urban spaces with large corridors than the complex narrow inner cities with supposition of different kinds of network layers. The grand ideas of the 18th century should be questioned from time to time and some districts that have escaped the corridorisation might well have a particular charm about them, maybe just because they seem to escape the rational approach of making and structuring space by means of large corridors. Large corridors separate city districts and they are a major driving force of gentrification.
The rationality of corridors has some roots in maths or physics of complexity. A recent paper by Shanshan Wang et al. (2024) reports the surprising finding that the transport corridors in several cities across the globe allow for a 1.3 times the distance of transport networks compared to the so-called direct linear “bird’s flight line”. Hence, corridorisation is (has been) a rather pervasively applied model of urban planning.
Alternative approaches advocate in favor of the 15-minutes walking distance city. All amenities like shops, schools, maybe work and services should be reachable within a 15 minutes walk. This does include “walking corridors” that facilitate (social) connectivity in inner cities. Cyclists also claim their corridors or fast lanes across cities, which underlines the pertinence to take corridorisation seriously and apply the concept with care.
In any case, social connectivity is key. The big social media platforms operate similar to the traffic infrastructure in the 21st century and provide huge corridors to knowledge and people. We only realize this once a service (for example tiktok) or the internet altogether gets disconnected. We have moved from (social) categorisation to (social) corridorisation as technology and rationalisation have taken the upper hand to structure our (social) lives.

Artists networking

Creating a network between rather idiosyncratic artists is no easy task. The more they develop a unique style separate from other painters mixing with other artists can be a challenge because you might find yourself in the position to continually defend your new style. Therefore, building a network of artists that understands the concept or emotion that drives you is a great advantage. In the catalog of the Caillebotte exhibition in the Musée d’Orsay Paris the map of living and working spaces of Caillebotte and his artists’ friends like Claude Monet is a great way to demonstrate the degree of networking and creative spaces that propelled the impressionist movement. The galleries and greater exhibitions of the impressionists took place in the vicinity of the established art institutions, but were not admitted into the traditional exhibition centers like the Louvre. The map from the catalog provides insights into the cognitive map of Paris which Caillebotte had in mind at his time. Artists see cities as opportunity spaces which facilitate or impede the creative processes.

Animal Longevity

  1. From time to time it is interesting to study animals from many species to maybe learn from them about longevity. Roberto Salguero-Gómez (LINK) developed a sociality continuum and compared 152 species across 13 taxonomic classes. The study reiterates and generalizes the many studies of single species and finds that „more social species live longer, have more generation time and longer reproductive windows“.  Social structures amongst animals of the same species influence survival and reproduction as basic demographic processes. These processes determine to a large extent the size of animal populations. Sociality appears to be a major contributor to longevity compared across species. These processes determine the survival of rather solitary species like panda bears (running higher risks of extinction) compared to populations of bees with rather hierarchical predefined social structures. The spotted hyenas developed cooperative hunting and communal care which allows for effective survival compared to other species. Sociality is specific to species and therefore largely determined by genetic factors. Nature rather than nurture is at work. However, species where reproduction occurs later allow for learning curves of sociality. In other words even within species there is scope to improve longevity through sociality. Migration patterns or experience with migration might be yet another determinant of survival or longevity as climate change poses new challenges to many species.

Career Criminals

From a life course perspective it is not easy to define a colloquial term like career criminal. A person who has been convicted for a single crime and has served his/her sentence should be allowed full integration into society. Even a repeated offender should not be stigmatized or labeled as career criminal. However, this is exactly what the NS-state did (traveling exhibition across Germany and Austria: „Die Verleugneten“). These persons were subject to targeted charges for criminal offenses they „might“ commit eventually. The term „community alien“ or „asocial“ were also used to refer to persons that did not fit into the dominant Nazi doctrine of „Volk“. It took 75 years until these persons could receive a recognition and a recompense for their unfounded discrimination and incarceration. In concentration camps the so-called asocial or career criminals were at the highest risk of further prosecution and death. Great that the stumbling Stones include these victims as well, as a way to remember these crimes against humanity. Beware of definitions of social groups which are based on totalitarian ideologies.

Zerreissprobe

The term „Zerreissprobe“ has been chosen by the curator team of the Neue Nationalgalerie In Berlin for the Retrospective of „Art between politics and society“ in the years 1945-2000. In this time period after the 2nd World War until the other „fin du siècle“ the politics of creating a new world order, the cold war and the liberalization of societies had profound impacts on art as well. The positioning of art in the dynamic context and conflicts of these decades is quite well reflected in the title of the exhibition. The English title „extreme tension“ suggests somehow that these years were rather extreme compared to ?, probably today? Although on the territory of Ukraine we witness a hot war rather than a cold war initiated by Putin‘s Russian imperial illusions. The cited work of Günter Brus „Zerreissprobe“ is translated as „stress test“. And maybe, this translation characterizes the post war period even better as these years are a forerunner of what happened after 2000. We continue to be put to tests in politics and societal developments. Accomplishments from the last century are put to crude tests again. Solidarity of people and nations are under pressure to demonstrate their reliability under extreme tension or stress. Art throughout the 5 decades of the last century was a precursor of stress tests for politicians and challenged society in its basic understandings. The comments on the notice board next to the exhibition show the themes of tension in the 2020s. Tensions in families and partnerships, often more extreme around christmas trees, have taken center stage for younger visitors of the exhibition. Sociological research has observed such trends and coined this societal phenomenon „individualization“.  Art embedded in society seems to be part of that evolution as well. Art movements are less visible as collective movements. Artists appear more individualistic or ideosyncratic nowadays, just less inclined to be part of a defining larger group. If artists are no longer avantgarde but rather followers of societal trends, the whole „raison d‘être“ of art changes as well. We are likely to witness yet another „ Zerreissprobe“. Cuts to art and culture budgets constitute an additional „ Zerreissprobe“ in the original sense of the word and of art between politics and society in 2024/2025.

Cupid at Work

The last 11 entries in this blog focus on  conceptual thoughts as a contribution to the history of ideas with an extension to modern concepts. Our societies, management of companies and personal  development are conceived under the conceptual framework of these concepts. Take the 1st letter of each term and it reads like “cupid at work“, easy to remember and enumerate.
Take each term as  a prism through which you frame your life course, an enterprise or a society. The 3 levels by 11 concepts matrix is a starting point to scan empirical examples for substance.
Complexity, Uncertainty, Plurality, Intersectionality, Dosage.

Ambiguity, Temporality,

Woke-ability, Organics, Resilience, Keys,
(Image: Peter van Lint, Jupiter embraces Cupid, 1636, MRBAB 2024)

On Keys

Keys may open multiple doors. Even a single key can open many locks, if constructed in the appropriate way. The obverse of key is also key, at least in the function of keys to lock doors. Hence the trick of the key is its dialectic function (open/close) of access. We practice the functioning of this binary thinking (1= open, 0= closed) several times a day. Even binary thinking can become very complex in case you consider a bunch of keys or organized as a ring of keys. With a plurality of locations or rooms (home, work, leisure) the uncertainty to have the fitting key to the lock in question at your disposable becomes a bit of a puzzle. Here we are, trial and error enter the stage for most of us. Don’t worry, there are digital tools to solve the problem for you, but then the whole issue of trust comes into play more forcefully. Sharing is not only caring, but also daring. Transponders replace keys and passwords have become the new “passe partout”. This leads to the brave new world of encryption as the keyfactor for security. Encryption is key. Are you already encrypting or still turning keys?
Keys are key to understanding as well. Artists in Berlin-Schöneberg combined the portraits of persons and their bundles of keys next to each other. Keys seem to reveal key personality traits of a person. Life course researchers may investigate the “first ownership” of a key to a room, an apartment or the family home as a factor of independence, even freedom to move. Handing over the keys of a car or your home to a significant other may mark looming restrictions due to health issues.
Anyway, what is your favourite key in music? More a fan of serial music or 12-tone music?

On Resilience

There are at least 2 definitions of resilience: (1) a material definition points at the “ability to return to an original form or position after being compressed, extended or curved, and (2) a immaterial or psychological definition. The latter one describes the ability to recover, be happy or successful anew having overcome a bad or challenging experience. The American psychological literature defines resilience in the shortest form as “positive adaptation despite adversity”. The psychological construct is linked to a positive life span perspective of personal development. Other areas of application range from “resilient investments”, “resilient industries” to single resilient societies or intergovernmental organizations like the European Union or NATO.
The challenges to resilience increase with complexity of societies and social as well as technical systems. As supply chains have become longer in time and travelling longer distances as well, the improvement of resilience has become a steep challenge for globalization. Reorganizing supply chains with “own sourcing” as in countries which are cut-off from international trade will have huge consequences on sending and receiving countries.
Last, but not least, countries like Ukraine demonstrate the fact and virtue of resilience after more than 1000 days of the massive Russian invasion of its country, which threatened its survival. Resilience works best in networks of organizations and countries. Solidarity is a fundamental building block of resilience as well. Donations and funds support activities that foster resilience.

On Woke-ability

The past particle of “to awake” is “woke“. As early as the 1960s the term woke has appeared in a New York Times article to reflect the idea that in the African-American History movement you woke up to a new movement, leaving behind discriminatory practice and rhetoric. The definition of woke in dictionaries refers to an awareness of social facts and injustices. Additionally, the use of woke has implied a need to act upon injustices due to social and/or ethnic origin. Elements of the woke movement were the use of more general non-discriminatory terms like people of color (POC) in official documents and revisions of textbooks for pupils. Subsequently, the application of the term woke spread to other social concerns like the discrimination of LGTBQ+ people in many societies.
The underlying concern was and still is (1) to recognize the discrimination and disadvantages faced by many groups in society and (2) a call for changing the way we talk about it and (3) a shift of policies to counter social injustices. Societies differ in the capacity of “woke-ability”, i.e. the capability to address social inequalities of various types including intersectionality. Societies have never simply been only homogenous. Heterogeneity, plurality and complexity are much better suited to represent societies, regions or countries.  It is our willingness to deal with these complexities in an open way which includes the “woke-ability” of social phenomena. Acknowdge a social problem and act upon it. Change the way we talk about a problem and the discoursive practice in general are important steps to address old and new social problems. For example, over the last 50years the discourse with respect to handicapped persons has evolved and the Paris 2024 Paralympics have made this clear to the public on a global scale.
(Image: Installation of Daniel Boyd in the Martin Gropius Bau, Berlin 2023)

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On Temporality

Time is passing, or is it? We tend to confound time, with passing of time or an occurrence at a specific point in time. Time has a static use, which refers to a date of birth or date of death. Time refers to durations like the lifetime or time in office of a person or a political leader. In most such cases time is considered as a continuous and linear process. The concept of temporality questions these common perspectives on time to allow additional time perspectives in the description and understanding of time.
Temporality is linked to a more flexible view on the periodization of history. The time before and after the 12 years of Nazi-terror will then be part of the extended periodization of the Nazi-Regime in Germany and Europe. Similarly, temporality widens the perspective on social phenomena by linking historical events to the time before and maybe even to what follows, seen as a consequence of the temporal and spacial co-evolution.
A deviation from the static view of time and a rigid periodization of fascism allows to study the Russian male dominated political authoritarianism as a new wave of fascism in Europe, which negates the right of existence of the state of Ukraine in its neighborhood.
Temporality expresses the need to go beyond a simplel periodization to include a spacial dimension  in the defintion of time, much like modern physics does in relativity theory. Temporality, therefore, opens up a “thought space” beyond just the timing of events, which may challenge many of our day-to-day experiences. Cultures with a different understanding of time or the pace of time become a “sound board” for our way of considering and being captured in a time space. Probably many artists are forerunners in playing with time and the way time is “treating” them. Most of them face(d) hardship during their lifetime, but have an extended “after life” in terms of reputation. Some contribute to the perodization in the arts and of their time. They all shape(d) temporality.
(Image: extract from Hans Bol, 1593 Ring Jousing in front of a pond inan  imaginary city, MRBAB, Brussels)

On ambiguity

Ambiguity is defines as something which can have more than precisely defined meaning. In legal affairs or other domains this may cause confusion and invites discussions or clarification. It has become even a personality trait and a competence to endure ambiguity. If a manager distributes tasks, ambiguity creates a potential for misunderstanding. However, ambiguity may also leave room for self-organization that people might like or be afraid of. Hence. handling of ambiguity is something of a skill that you are able to operate in less well or even undefined situations or circumstances. In such cases you have make decisions yourself and take responsibility later on for your decision. Creating ambiguity or ambiguous situations is a technique in art as well. To throw into doubt what previously was the received wisdom challenges people and institutions. The ways to handle ambiguity become a challenge to the performance of individuals or institutions. In dialectic thinking you think of something as well as the opposite. The result is an ambiguity which you might want to resolve. Quantum physics created a similar challenge to classical physics as more than one kind of behavior of particles is possible. Ambiguity might be more the rule than the exception despite our continuous efforts to disentangle ambiguity.

On Intersectionality

Society deals with individualization or individualism in various forms. One way is to take each social group as a specific singular case. This is reasonable and justified in many instances. There are cases where this form of dealing with specific social groups comes to limits. Following the rationale of plurality and individualism it has become common practice to address each target group in a specific manner. Intersectionality, however, acknowledges the overlapping of target groups, which necessitates a more specialized approach to intersecting (social) phenomena. Gender might not be the single most important factor to describe a person, just as age is a concept of various intersections. Chronological age versus age defined through biomarkers demonstrate the variety and potential for intersectionality. The Paralympics 2024 in Paris gave another positive example of intersectionality as extraordinary persons achieved previously unimaginable world records in specicialized disciplines. Individualization and classification is only a first step in the scientific endeavour, the analysis of intersectionality is an additional step to consider in a broad range of fields beyond the social sciences.
(Image: Exposition Isa Genzken 75/75 in Neue Nationalgalerie 2023)

Ranking Enterprises

The Spanish economic newspaper has published on its front page an updated ranking of the top 10 Spanish companies using environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria (see below). elEconomista.es on 2024-10-12 shows through this updated ranking that ESG criteria continue to be relevant information for investors. It is not just a nice to have information but gives important information on the sustainability record of a company. Continuous monitoring is key to show and reward the efforts and investments companies have made to improve sustainability. This information needs large distribution in order to keep up the awareness that there is more to a balance sheet than just turnover, profit margins, debts and investment. Churning of employees creates costs to society as a whole as well. Any early information on ESG indicators, therefore, allows a much broader assessment of the full impact of enterprises, 360 degrees and over time. Certainly a good example to follow up on.

Couch Cottage

As vacation time is approaching, we ask ourselves, whether to choose the comfortable couch or the remote cottage. This is the proposition of Roger-Pol Droit in “Le Monde Livres” (“Sagesse 2024: cabane ou canapé“, 28.6.2024 p.36) based on the reading of “Ma cabane sans peine” by Alain Guyard and “Philosophie du Canapé” by Stefano Scrima.
The couch stands for the lazy life or “vita contemplativa“, thinking about philosophical topics that need a certain form of laid back behaviour to allow your brain to sort out tricky questions or to ask yourself, what is, was or will be important questions. Many academics shut themselves away from the busy life outside to reserve more time for couch thinking. The usual products of this activity practised on chairs and couches is more or less digestable books. Some make a comfortable living out of this active inactivity.
The cottage approach follows another longstanding philosophical tradition associated with Dionysos. Living a simple life in a remote place, but full of life’s enjoyment allows to exalt in the dithyrambic atmosphere of the countryside.
Rather than the either, or issue: couch or cottage, I go along with the dialectics of Hegel, who forms out of thesis and antithesis the synthesis. In our example this is obviously equal to “take the couch to the cottage“, problem solved. Additionally Nietzsches version of “Die fröhliche Wissenschaft” seems to prolong the dialectic experience of going beyond the “neither, nor” dichotomy to combine both couch and cottage.
You sensed it. It will be a rather exciting summer break to pursue on the many roads to “Sagesse 2024” (Wisdom 2024).

Art or Profession

In political science it is a long tradition to discuss, whether politics is an art or a profession. The idealist tradition, going back as far as Plato in ancient Greek history of ideas, puts the exercise of politics near the exercise of a divine art to do justice. Much later in the history of ideas Max Weber rather bluntly defined politics as a profession (original in German) that requires to master a set of competences.
Recent elections in Europe (EU, France, UK, Belgium) and around the globe (India, USA) in 2024 add interesting case studies to the old question. Is politics an art or a profession?
In modern politics the life course or life cycle of a politician consists of at least 2 phases: (1) the electoral campaign before and (2) the potential of governing or opposition. Each phase requires a different set of competences. In phase 1 it is important to propose a new or different ideal from the previous government. Charismatic presentation of an ideal set of policies is asked for.  In phase 2 it is required of the politician to forge compromises, either within the own political party or beyond boundaries of political parties. Certainly, in multi-level governance systems like the European Union additional forms of coalition building across countries is required, intercultural competence or language skills are an advantage here.
The 2 phases of the life cycle of a politician require different sets of skills. Charisma as mentioned by Plato and Weber can get a politician into power and charismatic leadership can get you through a lot of coalition building. On the other hand, modern campaigning in repeated elections is a specialized competence that resembles marketing expertise as well as “reading of statistics” and in-depth analyses of shifting or stable preferences of electorates and to succinct conclusions on this basis. Running a political party or a parliamentary group is yet another leadership skill just like communication skills that, beyond many prejudices, can be learned.
In a nutshell. Politics is an art and a profession. The art consists in the variable combination of different sets of competences. Art requires competences just as professions can be turned into art.  Welcome to the hybrid world of modern politics. (Image extract from MAD Paris, Picasso, Schiaparelli)

Cannabis Alcohol

The use of cannabis and/or alcohol is yet another question where we are used to ask questions in the form of: either the or the other? Over generations we have gotten used to no longer ask for each do you or don’t you. With the controlled liberalization or legalization of cannabis in some Western European states the framing of the question is more like you do the one or the other, particularly for many younger persons.
Decriminalization of both drugs in small quantities is apparently reducing crimes link to drug use and drug dealing. On the other hand, the thresholds for doing drugs are lower than they used to be. In inner cities it is therefore no longer a surprise to find both kinds of drugs with addictive potential next to each other (see image below). We know that it is a slippery road from regular drug use to uncontrolled dependency and personal disaster. For cannabis a study published in the Lancet (Petrilli et al. 2022) added the importance of the potency of tetrahydrocannabinol to the estimate of risks. This is similar to the studies that differentiate the level of alcohol in drinks consumed. The higher the concentration, the higher the risks. A simple proportional relationship prevails in both drugs. The cumulative effects of consuming both together might have quite surprising non-linear effects.
The big issue is the risks of mental health related to these drugs. However, the causal direction is not easy to detect. Drugs induce mental health problems, but also mental health issues lead to drug abuse. This remains quite a puzzle for scientists to disentangle.
Additionally, the link to smoking and addiction to nicotine is a frequently observed corollary. Studying just one single source of health problems and addiction might be too restrictive to learn about the whole set of causal effects and casualties. For the time being we seem to jump from one field of attention to the next one ignoring the multiple interrelated factors at hand.

Broken Promises

In a library catalogue, the entry of « broken promises «  returns more than 3000 times that the title has been used. « Promises kept » is almost as popular. A rapid inspection of titles reveals that the former titles suggest more factual analyses, whereas the latter is frequently used in the form of an imperative in combination with “should be kept”. The book by Fritz Bartel “The Triumph of Boken Promises …” (2022) demonstrates the importance of the concept of broken promises in the social sciences. The rivalry between socialism, capitalism and the rise of neoliberalism is strongly influenced by the way they handle the breaking of promises made to their respective societies. The promises of increasing wealth and wellbeing have been part of all political regimes. To keep these promises is a completely different story. Especially since the first and second oil crises and many other kinds of crises, it has become much harder to keep these promises. Working hours, retirement ages or minimum wages are all at risk to no longer live up to the promises made in earlier periods. This has put welfare states under pressure that millions of voters perceive politics as a “game” of broken promises. Socialist political regimes like Russia are ready to use physical violence to shut up people that remind leaders of these broken promises. In democracies the ballot box is often used to sanction governments that do not live up to expectations of previous promises. A lot is about public infrastructure which is failing people. Migration, education, social and labor reforms are on top of the political agenda if it comes down to broken promises. The elections of the European Parliament gave many a chance to express their discontent about various broken promises. Maybe democracy is better in providing forms of letting off steam early and protracted protests rather than the Russian way to suppress any critical analysis, let alone opposition movements. Just like the move from industrial production to services as production models, with AI we are likely to see similar problems and probably also broken promises. The challenge is huge and promises should be made with an eye of what promises could be kept.

Public swimming pool closed for reconstruction 2024

Forecasting floods

As floods as becoming more frequent and more severe forecasting of such events is crucial. The recent example in Bavaria (Germany) of the Danube river (2nd longest in Europe) has demonstrated the role of forecasting to spur adequate behavior of people living in areas at risk of flooding. With the weather forecast announcing lots of rain for a large area the forecasting of floods needs to follow closely these trends. It is not only a question of expectations, but an issue of adaptive expectations for people to adopt appropriate precautions. In retrospect the early forecasts turned out to be fairly accurate in terms of the peak of flooding to be expected in June 2024. The Bavarian “Hochwassernachrichtendienst” (no joke, one word) forecasted on the 2nd of June about 7.50 as the peak to be reached in 2 days in the city of Kelheim. This was beyond the usual 4 warning levels based on an escalation scale. The forecast was beyond the frequent flooding levels established in the last decades. People and emergency services would have to adapt their expectations accordingly. Renewing forecasts is essential to guide people and services in their efforts to deal with emergencies and repair damages as flood levels recede. Management of crises critically depends on forecasting even if they are obviously prone to error margins which should usually be reported as well just like in weather forecasts. Adaptive expectations are key in combination with forecasts to ensure survival.

Hochwassernachrichtendienst Bayern 2024-6
Kelheim on Danube

Hospital Bias

Asking people about differences between private and public hospitals, you are most likely getting answers that the private hospitals deliver superior patient outcomes. Whereas private hospitals seem to have a positive stigma attached to them, public hospitals commonly have a negative stigma. Scientific evaluations are helpful to set the record straight again. The study published in “The Lancet Regional Health” in 2024 shows that in the simple descriptive statistics on several patient outcome indicators, this is what the data showed between 2026 and 2019. However, a more precise statistical analysis reveals that there is also a selective admission to the private and public hospitals in England. Using so-called instrumental variables approaches that account for the selection process between admission to the 2 types of hospitals (private versus public) most of the differences between the hospital types disappear. The underlying mechanism is a sorting of different patients into the private or public hospitals. Put in easy words, for a routine intervention people tend to chose the private hospital, but the more rare and difficult operations were more likely admitted to public hospitals. The number of co-morbidities (heart disease) is also of importance as they might negatively affect patient outcomes. Jumping to conclusions and reinforcing stigma about public or private provision of services hinders progress and an equitable provision of services.
The analysis of a potential selection bias can reveal the “creaming” effect of private provision of (health) services. Just caring for the “easy” or routine cases and avoiding the more difficult and costly cases has economic advantages, but for society as a whole the costs overall remain the same. A good public service in health is a definite asset.

(Image: Exposition Isa Genzken 2023 in Neue Nationalgalerie Berlin)

Digital Estonia

The progress of Estonia in going digital is quite advanced. The electronic identity card which allows data to be linked to health data and accounts or banking gives an impression of how far-reaching digitalization may go. Great steps have been taken to guide the population on the way to move towards the digital (only) world. Learning and coaching of a huge amount need to take place so that people do not abandon or get lost on the path towards “everything digital”. For the so-called digital natives, who have grown up with the sound of their smartphone at the bedside all the time, this move feels “natural”. Some experienced or silver workers got on track, if they were accompanied in suitable forms. The 65+ population might find it harder to adapt to the permanent use of digital devices for not only getting around in your city, but also to do your tax declaration, pay your dues and vote in elections.
Digitalization is not a goal in itself. It has advantages to reach communities in remote places or islands, but it might alienate older persons that have no other person around to assist them in the digital only world. An easy way to get some social science data to inform the debate is to refer to Eurostat and the surveys with information about the “overall life satisfaction” of people (EU-SILC). Checking for some major countries of the EU and neighbours of Estonia with less digitalization the differences are rather small. In terms of overall life satisfaction (16+ years old) Estonia has been catching up to the EU-average mainly between 2013 and 2021. Since then, stagnation at the EU-average is what the data tell. A quick testing of the hypothesis that the older persons (65+) might not see the past evolution as rosy is reflected in the EU-data as well. Good pensions seem to drive the “happiness” of older persons in the EU more than good digitalization. Eventually the two features of a society will have to go hand in hand to improve life satisfaction to higher levels. (Image: Data Eurostat EU-SILC Life satisfaction 65+, selected countries 2013-2023, retrieved on 2024-4-23, comparison with table all ages here, Data source)

Series Evaluation

The monitoring of TV series is a serious science. The evaluation of so-called binch viewing has redrawn attention to the field of media studies again. We observe a bit across Europe, following the US experience, the change of TV productions into series that may run over several years. The successful format of a TV series draws advertising to the relatively constant audience. Most series have a particular age group as their target group. Viewing behavior determines time slots allocated. Each group has its own prime time. The publisher of books had their successes with similar series of for example children’s picture books or cartoons. Asterix, Martine and similar book series have basically applied the same “serial” mechanism before. Popular success creates its own dynamics. Therefore the evaluation of such serial productions should stay on our research agenda of the social sciences as well.

In a radio discussion “France Culture” has juxtaposed the 2 currents of series evaluation in a concise way. One current of assessment holds the view that rather than high versus low culture, the debate should take popular culture seriously. It augments the set of experiences as the characters in a TV series live through a kind of “experimental setting” each time anew. The variety of experiences is catching popular attention as they are beyond the scope of the spectator’s usual life settings and thereby a learning opportunity. This highlights the value of the content in the evaluation. This requires a thorough scrutiny of that content to evaluate an emancipatory value of viewing it (Sandra Lauglier, 2023).

An opposing view is defended by Bertrand Cochard (2024) with reference to the conflict about one’ use of free time available to us and how we spend it. His criticism takes issue with the amount of time “lost” by viewers of series. Time is not spent twice. The loss of time alone or side by side rather than spending it with other persons or physically active constitutes a major risk to the social fabric of society.The jury is still out on the issue. We likely see the start of a series of entries on this topic as well.

AI and PS

AI like in ChatGPT is guided by so-called prompts. After the entry of “what is AI” the machine returns a definition of itself. If you continue the chat with ChatGPT and enter: “Is it useful for public services” (PS), you receive an opinion of AI on its own usefulness (of course positive) and some examples in which AI in the public services have a good potential to improve the state of affairs. The AI ChatGPT is advocating AI for the PS for mainly 4 reasons: (1) efficiency purposes; (2) personalisation of services; (3) citizen engagement; (4) citizen satisfaction. (See image below). The perspective of employees of the public services is not really part of the answer by ChatGPT. This is a more ambiguous part of the answer and would probably need more space and additional explicit prompts to solicit an explicit answer on the issue. With all the know issues of concern of AI like gender bias or biased data as input, the introduction of AI in public services has to be accompanied by a thorough monitoring process. The legal limits to applications of AI are more severe in public services as the production of official documents is subject to additional security concerns.
This does certainly not preclude the use of AI in PS, but it requires more ample and rigorous testing of AI-applications in the PS. Such testing frameworks are still in development even in informatics as the sources of bias a manifold and sometimes tricky to detect even for experts in the field. Prior training with specific data sets (for example of thousands of possible prompts) has to be performed or sets of images for testing adapted to avoid bias. The task is big, but step by step building and testing promise useful results. It remains a challenge to find the right balance between the risks and the potentials of AI in PS.

AI by AI

It has become a common starting point to use electronic devices and online encyclopedias to search for definitions. Let us just do this for artificial intelligence. The open platform of Wikipedia returns on the query of “artificial intelligence” the following statement as a definition: “AI … is intelligence exhibited by machines, particularly computer systems …“. It is not like human intelligence, but tries to emulate it or even tries to improve on it. Part of any definition is also the range of applications of it in a broad range of scientific fields, economic sectors or public and private spheres of life. This shows the enormous scope of applications that keeps rapidly growing with the ease of access to software and applications of AI.
How does AI define itself? How is AI defined by AI? Putting the question to ChatGPT 3.5 in April 2024 I got the following fast return. (See image). ChatGPT provides a more careful definition as the “crowd” or networked intelligence of Wikipedia. AI only “refers to the simulation” of HI processes by machines”. Examples of such HI processes include the solving of problems and understanding of language. In doing this AI creates systems and performs tasks that usually or until now required HI. There seems to be a technological openness embedded in the definition of AI by AI that is not bound to legal restrictions of its use. The learning systems approach might or might not allow to respect the restrictions set to the systems by HI. Or, do such systems also learn how to circumvent the restrictions set by HI systems to limit AI systems? For the time being we test the boundaries of such systems in multiple fields of application from autonomous driving systems, video surveillance, marketing tools or public services. Potentials as well as risks will be defined in more detail in this process of technological development. Society has to accompany this process with high priority since fundamental human rights are at issue. Potentials for assistance of humans are equally large. The balance will be crucial.

Stock taking

From time to time it is necessary to take stock of production and to review the material that has accumulated. As I have been working in archives, official book depositories and libraries for years, it comes almost naturally to deal with questions of how to keep track of all that content. Digital solutions are excellent devices in this regard. I do not have to deal with digitalisation, a huge issue for all historic archives and many recent small museums as well. I have to deal with backups at regular instances. To be sure, each engineer will assure you, better make a backup of your backup … . Yes, I do this as well. Now the ultimate backup of digital work is ? Got it, a printed copy of your digital work. The best advice I received on this comes from a computer magazine “ct” gadget mug with imprint advocating “No backup, no mercy“. To facilitate my printed archive I start with monthly collections of blog entries (Link to pdf-file December 2023 ->Brainstorming 23-12). The simple conversion yields 63 pages, a printer friendly version 56. Hence the expected yearly volume (60*12) will be somewhere near 720 pages. That is for the archive only or in case my eyes do no longer support online reading on screens for too long.
Digital archives have, of course, many other advantages. It is possible to reassemble my collection of entries by subject through a more thorough editing. Specific edited volumes will surface from this, which I have in my mind but only careful long-term followers of the entries might see already. Political economy and sociology are obvious candidates. Public health, labour, the world of arts and music could constitute other edited volumes. Lots of branches grow out of the trunk of content.

Renewables

Renewable energy has reached for the 1sr time a share of more than 50% in Spain and Germany in 2023. This is an astonishing milestone in the energy transition of both countries. For Spain a report from Red Energy Espanola attributes the Spanish success story to the expansion of mainly wind energy (Link). The increase of renewable energy in Germany is due to a more rapid expansion of solar energy (Link). In any case a continued expansion of both forms of renewables allows to reduce the share of fossil fuel even more rapidly than previously estimated. Good news for the planet particularly to phase out energy from coal due to its highly polluting side effect. Countries with faster trajectories shall serve as examples that it is feasible to manage the energy transition also for large countries. Political instability might be a price worth paying considering the positive effects for future generations. Managing the transition in a just way which means to assist poorer households, ensures the respect of social policy targets at the same time. With this in mind the energy transition can be perceived by all as an opportunity rather than a threat to their welfare and wellbeing.

Beer Temple

Brussels has recently opened a new attraction. A splendid temple-like building devoted to the unnamed God of beer-drinking. The renovation over several years of the centrally located “Bourse” has created a new popular attraction right in the centre of Brussels. From the outside the building reflects the classical temple architecture from Greek and Roman times. Although the building was for a long time the trading place of shares, obligation and currencies and thereby very closely linked to a country’s wealth and economic fate, it has found a new destination to represent the diverse and spirited culture of the people or peoples of Belgium through the lens of a beer glass. Of course, this is surrealism à la Magritte et al. (Museum and galleries within walking distance). The shifting fate after a financial crash to transform the “Stock Exchange” into a temple of surrealistic experiences is great idea and its realisation as popular move to transform the stock market into a temple to worship beer, beer drinking and conviviality a great idea. Without joking, the restaurant in the temple proposes good food that can be matched with a selection of 30+ kinds of Belgian beer (including 4 non-alcohol-containing beers).
Framing beer drinking culture differently from the image of beer and football hooligans is hard to achieve. Public images of beer drinking on television are all around us, anew every weekend. The Brussels stock exchange is a great place to reflect on shareholder versus stakeholder issues. Brussels has opted for a popular conversion of the building. Paris has gone for the upmarket more exclusive transformation of the previous stock exchange (Bourse commerciale) into a gallery of modern art from the private Pinault foundation.
The museum of beer in the upper ranks of the building in Brussels offers even tastings we were told. Well, beer drinking and stock trading (gambling) have both addictive potentials. Ruining yourself, the one or the other way, is equally disastrous not only for yourself but potentially others.
Know your limits is easier said than done. It is a behavioural phenomenon for individuals as well as regions or whole countries. With the apparent “Limits to Growth” for our planet or our ways to trade, even praying in the renewed beer temple is unlikely to solve the bitter-sweet issue. Perhaps discussions in the new Brussels temple will spur new coalitions and stimulate new ideas to overcome the locked-in political trading positions.  Maybe the European Parliament should have a futuristic surreal session in the historic site. The only problem is, they would no longer want to return to their usual forum for debates.

Marathon Prep

Most people, including many sociologists, believe preparation for a marathon is a rather lonely exercise. During hot summers you get up early and run alone across the streets in your neighbourhood or in a green area. Even on weekends you tend to put on your running gear at least once to chip in a few extra miles or once or twice before the marathon a longer distance test run of 20, 25 or 30 kilometers. Just for the sake of testing to withstand more pain, like in the real event. Running guides in form of books, apps reach “cult status”. In sociology we teach students about the social trends of individualisation ever since the book by Putnam “Bowling alone”, which depicted the new kind of lonesome person going alone to the bowling hall for exercise, as social life seems to evolve towards “individualised” leisure time and social life. Social capital seems to get lost on the way.
The New York Times International” published an article and photo by Lauren Jackson on September, 27 (2023) page 17 in the sports section, which states the not so new phenomenon of “run clubs” (see extract on image below). These clubs bring runners from all walks of life together on a regular basis to train jointly and add a social function to the club as well. Just like previous sport clubs or socialising bowling groups did before, they meet and greet as well as party and celebrate together. Even travelling thousands of miles to distant events occurs in groups. Berlin seems to be a very attractive location for such clubs to go to. For some the sport stays in front of the activities, but for quite a few the social and party-like atmosphere is just as important. Even a local Berlin newspaper portrayed an older runner who stops in-between to have a small glass of alcohol-free beer on a terrace 2 steps from the official track with friends and family. Most people take their time record rather seriously, but the event is to enjoy community and celebration. Lauren Jackson even equates this to some forms of religious practice. I’s rather call this the other side of the same coin. Lone practice and meditation like running prepares a person to enjoy community (again). Extremes in both directions are part of the bell-shaped probability distribution of runners across the lonely-crowded spectrum of running experiences. The Marathon 42km 195m certainly has some historical even mystical connotation. While watching the finishing line at 42 km, just after the hypothetical run from Marathon to Athens in ancient Greece, you see many worn out persons, but also the many happy faces. After the run you meet your peers to exchange on stories and anecdotes around the track. Success and failure, just as in other team sports become a topic of conversation and shared experiences. These are community building events as wheel chairs and hand-driven bikes are part of the Berlin event as well as the in-line skaters the day before. In Berlin you get a feeling that running world records (women 2023, men 2022) can go hand in hand with the running fun for many. From “bowling alone” to “running together”. Sounds good to me.

Anger

It feels like we live in the “age of anger”. Anger was a predominate feeling in the “French yellow vest movement” spurred by sharp increases in petrol prices. In Germany the notion of “Wutbürger” had a short career to express anger of citizens against, against whatever could arise anger. There are plenty of issues of course that will cause arousal in public politics. The more a government enacts change, be it necessary or not, the more it is to arouse its citizens. Parliamentary democracy is thought to solve this through majority voting of the equally represented in parliament. Minority rights have been installed to safeguard the majority to become too overwhelming, but any close decisions on hotly debated topics are likely to cause substantial anger within a society.
This is far from being an issue only in Western democracies. Pankaj Mishra claims, this is a world-wide phenomenon and history provides ample examples for it. In his book on “The age of anger” he challenges the predominantly Western political theory, deriving from an opposition of Voltaire’s and Rousseau’s political thought to hold the individualisation and globalisation of an economic model, traditional capitalism, responsible for the rise of anger across the globe.
This critique of capitalism is now translated into French. Several movements of anger in France probably find some unifying roots of seemingly unrelated outbreak of anger, violence and subsequent repression. Old arguments of critics of capitalism stand up again. The challenge to democracy comes from the extreme right even more than from the extreme left. Re-imagining capitalism is needed more than ever to safe the survival of democracy. Participative democracy like in Bürgerräte in Germany or deliberative democracy practiced by President Macron in France are an important part to stimulate involvement of more people in the preparation of decision-making. Not perfect as procedures, but small steps ahead to confront and address anger of the citizens and people at large.