Tag: business

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swop Credit default swops

Credit default swops (CDS) are popular again in the financial markets. Taking insurance against the risk of AI-giants, unused data centers or chipmakers defaulting on their massive debts has been on top of the agenda in the Financial Times on 2026-10-21. The last time a similar run on CDS happened was related to the bank, then much bigger financial crisis about 20 years ago. Remember those days “Too big to fail” and the huge bill put on governments and tax payers subsequently. The drop on Wall street on Thursday 29th and Friday 30-10-2026 send shivers through the financial markets. There seems to be the opinion that we have witnessed the peak of the AI-hype towards the end of October 2026. In the New York Times (2026-10) there was already an article which advocated that if the AI technology is not viable as a private enterprise, it should be nationalized to guard against abuses and make sure the military applications could continue to be exploited at full potential as other superpowers might equally do so.
We all heard or read the warnings about the riskiness of such investments even when hedged through CDSs, it is about time to return to investments that do not primarily build on other people’s intellectual property. 

credit-default-swops-swoped-2026-11

credit-default-swops-swoped-2026-11
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Splendid Isolation Iceland

In international politics the term “splendid isolation” refers to the British diplomacy of the 19th century to keep Great Britain out of the power struggles across Europe and as a separate force. Maybe the Brexit in the 21st century can be figured in terms of  a return to the ideal of a splendid isolation, despite the close economic links and joint democratic heritage since the 2WW.
Iceland had a referendum on opening EU-accession talks which it dismissed by 53% against to 47% in favor. As with the Brexit vote, countries rarely vote similar in all regions. Therefore, it is no surprise that an even larger majority of the population of Reykjavik voted in favor, but the 2/3 of the population living in rural areas, many related to the fishing industries, rejected the prospects of EU-integration. As a member of the EEA Iceland is already part of the more economic aspects of the EU, but a strong isolationist and independent diplomatic stance dominated. Sometimes it takes a generational change before the prospects for younger generations are taken into account in politics.

splendid-isolation-in-Paris-2026-10
splendid-isolation-in-Paris-2026-10
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Peak AI

Many scholars, economists and politicians have predicted peak oil production before and were wrong in the estimate of the timing of the turning point. At the occasion of the Frankfurt book fair #fbm26, the sector’s coming to grips with the use of AI is all over the place. AI is the elephant in the room which threatens jobs and complete business models, but also creates new opportunities. On the Global Stage on 2026-10-7 the panel on innovation and experimentation in publishing discussed the issues based on first experiences. When I asked Chat-GPT for an opinion on, whether one of the presenters gave a realistic assessment of the potential of AI in publishing, it came up with a rather  sobering statement (see below). “Yes — the overall approach is realistic, but the slide makes it sound easier and more universal than it actually is.” A great opportunity for AI consulting to the sector subject to rapid change (again). Maybe the AI knows from my track record of prompts that I am a social scientist and favor critical thinking. Pleasing me, it ends by a suggestion that indirectly AI is less universal than is currently the dominant opinion. We might see a reckoning of AI that it (hopes) for its own sake, to be less universal than what the hype suggests. Peak AI could guarantee sufficient margins to survive comfortably, just like other not-so-social or not-so-sustainable sectors and technologies. 

AI on AI - it is not so universal 2026-10
AI on AI – it is not so universal 2026-10
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Legal illegal business

The world of business has to be quite well defined in order to make the borders between legal and illegal practices clear, transparent and enforceable. You name the business or trade and then check the rules governing it. For pharmaceutical products we have rather strict regulations, but smuggling across borders can be a challenge to national customs if online commerce can easily circumvent national controls. Trading on ebay in small amounts is not defined as a tax registered trade, if it is below certain amounts. However, this might be difficult to control and legal rules are at times tough to enforce. The construction sector has been closely scrutinized for illegal practices and sketchy applications of regulations with regard to health and safety of employees. Regulations can be a pain, but they have contributed to safe lives in many instances. (Image: construction of “Scheune” (barn) in Berlin 2026-9, future center of Kulturforum). 

Kulturforum construction 2026-9

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Scroll or stop

In 2026-10 the fundamental question is: to scroll or not to scroll? As we have moved into the individualistic society with omnipresence of the not-so-social media we keep scrolling through online content. Our attention habits are subject to so-called cliffhangers which aim to direct our attention on specific topics, surprising images or just steering us to more-of-the-same content. The social media ban for children fights against the addiction to endless scrolling. In most cases, what is good for children is also beneficial for adults. Hence, the “endless scrolling” (which I increased on this blog at several occasions, currently = 30 max entries) is from now on reduced to 10. After those 10 entries, you are invited to read more on one of those entries or use one-click proposed keywords or categories. The search of topics or names is another more specific entry into a social science perspective. Maybe, the invitation to scroll less, but stop more often and read or follow proposed links is a beginning to detox our online habits. 

Tags on www.schoemann.org 2026-10
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Rural urban interrelationship

Cities are no isolated microcosms. They rely on being delivered a huge range of products. Cities have been markets, hubs or platforms for exchange with their surroundings, neighboring communities as well as distant ones. Historically, quite many cities have built walls to limit access and strictly regulated access. In the 21st century with low levels of fertility, the demographic pressure to leave the countryside for jobs is less pressing, but many regions face the shrinkage of the countryside’s population. The interrelationship between the urban centers and the rural surroundings has to be studied and addressed due to the far-reaching consequences for both. Transportation into cities needs public infrastructure which can handle the necessary flows and exchanges of people and products. For too many decades we have focused on an either/or cleavage of an apparent dichotomy of urban versus rural. It is about time to correct this bias and take the rural-urban interdependence more systematically into account. 

uri urban rural interrelationship in food and drink

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“what” and “how” in consulting

The scope of both “what” and “how” to consult have been considerably enlarged in the 2020s. The rise of the internet and digital formats in consulting have put an indigestible amount of mostly well-intended advice to the public at large. Language barriers are coming down in the digestion of ever broader as well as more interdisciplinary forms of knowledge. The “what” in consulting seems to be endless and yet the expectations on advanced expertise have risen as well. The calls for easy language summaries, as provided and popular with generative AI, pose a challenge to consulting on more interrelated or “messy” problems. The broad availability of AI in our pockets, watches or glasses amplify the potential to address really tough issues in consulting leaving the easy advice to the machines repairing other machines. Consulting may then focus on human interaction which needs to fix norms and guidelines in moral and practical matters. Consulting might take much more the form of interpretation and contextualization of information beyond simple information gathering. The “how” in consulting is conditional on “what” is the issue in question. From the antique dialog over (medieval) confessions (Stegmaier, Fuerst 1993) and book writing, we have moved to digital formats with textual, vocal and visual formats (Image and video). Hybrid formats enrich the consulting experience for the persons asking for advice as well as those offering it. (Image: Consulting on what and how to plant in city streets 2026-8 Paris)

Consulting on what and how to plant in city streets 2026-8 Paris

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Productive organizational energy

Productive organizational energy is more than the sum of individual efforts. Only if you manage to align the productivity of all employees and managers towards the same objectives, you are likely to reap the full benefits of productive organizational energy. The scientific literature is quite clear in this regard. The authors Vogel, Raes and Bruch (2026) highlighted the need to investigate current as well as anticipated Productive organizational energy using a tool called the “energy pattern explorer”. Through the repeated measurement it is possible to learn about trajectories which can be related to leadership styles, external and internal influences as well as to evaluate detailed leadership activities in more detail. Once in office, many leaders no longer deem it necessary to check or evaluate their decision-making processes, although the baseline measures should be taken at that time or before departure of the previous chief executive. About time to take productive organizational energy seriously to mobilize the energy of the many rather than the usual one man show.

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Sedentary society

The football or soccer world cup, like other sports, used to be an event which mobilized people to become active as well. Many people, particularly the young, joined football teams and clubs or practiced in backyards. The sedentary society has managed to transform this in the 2020s into a seated activity (football soccer seated 2026). In order to capture attention and time spent in a shopping center, itself a good predictor of money spent, the FIFA world cup serves as a means to promote football at any costs. Sit and kick, that is the new lifestyle. You even have your hands free to do something else. Eat and drink, probably. Great, that the football-mania is over in 2026 for a while. Time to get real exercise.

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Berlin Futures

The city of Berlin is projecting itself into the future. Two long-term goals, Olympic Games 2036 or an Expo organization 2035, are potentially looming and all actors have to project themselves as to what role they want to play in such processes. Trades and industries have an essential role to play to realize any vision of the future, at the same time, local trades and industries ask for amenable conditions to do business in the necessarily restricted city space.
There is competition between housing projects and business parks across each metropolitan area as any form of growth needs space to grow in. The “1. Berlin Future Day of business parks” highlighted this potential source of conflict and business leaders exchanged their experiences and strategies how to arrive at manageable comprises.
There are several Win-Win constellations in which for example an additional stop on a metropolitan “S-Bahn” line benefits the business area and all those (future) employees going to and back from work. Infrastructure like transport, mobility, energy, internet speed and security, all play key roles in such visions of future. If networks of organizations address policy makers with well-defined requirements, politicians can act as facilitators to ease sometimes lengthy bureaucratic impediments. The call for public infrastructure investments by private business initiatives is a reminder of the need for public-private partnerships to create promising Berlin Futures. (Image: 1. Future Day of Business areas in Berlin, Senator Franziska Giffey 2026-7-15)