Zukunft – Schoemann

03/11/202602/11/2026

swop Credit default swops

Credit default swops (CDS) are popular again in the financial markets. Taking insurance against the risk of AI-giants, unused data centers or chipmakers defaulting on their massive debts has been on top of the agenda in the Financial Times on 2026-10-21. The last time a similar run on CDS happened was related to the bank, then much bigger financial crisis about 20 years ago. Remember those days “Too big to fail” and the huge bill put on governments and tax payers subsequently. The drop on Wall street on Thursday 29th and Friday 30-10-2026 send shivers through the financial markets. There seems to be the opinion that we have witnessed the peak of the AI-hype towards the end of October 2026. In the New York Times (2026-10) there was already an article which advocated that if the AI technology is not viable as a private enterprise, it should be nationalized to guard against abuses and make sure the military applications could continue to be exploited at full potential as other superpowers might equally do so.
We all heard or read the warnings about the riskiness of such investments even when hedged through CDSs, it is about time to return to investments that do not primarily build on other people’s intellectual property.

01/11/202630/10/2026

Practice Web analytics

For all people, especially webmasters, it is useful to understand and deal with web analytic reports of webpages. From time to time I do my own little research to check what is going on and how changes I implemented can be evaluated. During the month of October 2026 I have changed from a 30 entry long scroll landing page on https://schoemann.org to only a 10 entries before a kind of stop or follow-up click is needed to pursue reading. How has this changed the visits on the webpage? Well, (1) the number of visitors in 2026-10 (56.000) and page views (84.000) remained remained relatively stable, but after an initial rise in time spent on the webpage (report on Frankfurt book fair 2026) a significant drop in average duration on the page has occurred. As the retention rate on the webpage remained stable, my conclusion based on this real-world experiment is that the scroll limit set on purpose to 10 images and blog entries before more active engagement is necessary has the expected effect. Scroll limits shorten time spent on the same page and, most likely would also work in the “not-so-social” social media realm.

web analytics 2026-10 of www.schoemann.org

30/10/202630/10/2026

Forecasting error

In the October 17th edition of The New Scientist we learn about the long time series of events related to of El Niño and El Niña. These series of linked events make forecasting of what is to be expected in 2026-2027 less error bound. Monthly or bimonthly forecasts across the globe can actually predict droughts and floods quite well except the precise geolocations in a country or region. As a consequence crops will suffer and countries with little provision of stocks or purchasing power shall suffer the most. We have about 6 months left to prepare for such events as a global community. Rather than continue to pile on additional risks for the planet we have to address the root problems of CO₂ emissions urgently, all of us.

29/10/202628/10/2026

Splendid Isolation Iceland

In international politics the term “splendid isolation” refers to the British diplomacy of the 19^th century to keep Great Britain out of the power struggles across Europe and as a separate force. Maybe the Brexit in the 21^st century can be figured in terms of a return to the ideal of a splendid isolation, despite the close economic links and joint democratic heritage since the 2WW.
Iceland had a referendum on opening EU-accession talks which it dismissed by 53% against to 47% in favor. As with the Brexit vote, countries rarely vote similar in all regions. Therefore, it is no surprise that an even larger majority of the population of Reykjavik voted in favor, but the 2/3 of the population living in rural areas, many related to the fishing industries, rejected the prospects of EU-integration. As a member of the EEA Iceland is already part of the more economic aspects of the EU, but a strong isolationist and independent diplomatic stance dominated. Sometimes it takes a generational change before the prospects for younger generations are taken into account in politics.

28/10/202603/11/2026

Queue to learn

The protests of students in France has been biased by reports on the violence by people who looted shops. The broadly unmatched learning ambitions of students has entered little into the reporting. In the 2 weeks after the protest students flocked to public libraries to learn in decent conditions. Nowadays, this includes access to fast internet and other sources of inspiration depending on interests. Researchers who were the primary users of the BNF have been outnumbered by advanced pupils and students ready to queue for 1 hour to catch a place even sitting on floors. This brings back the time of the baby boomers who entered with large birth cohorts into high schools and universities later on. Such social trends are predictable and adequate policy responses not even extremely expensive. Until education institutions are expanded there will be queues to learn.

22/10/202621/10/2026

Delors White Paper revisited

The former President of the European Commission Jacques Delors had prepared a white paper (1993) to guide economic reforms for the next few years from 1994 onwards. The report covered macroeconomic recommendations to spur growth, to improve competitiveness and create employment opportunities. The report achieved a balance between the 3 fields with an additional emphasis on sustainability. Based on the simulations of several macroeconomic models it became clear, that “… easing of the burden of statutory charges, which would be introduced as part of active employment policies, would have to be offset by tax measures so as not to swell budget deficits.” (p.157). A special emphasis was on job creation across all ages. Countries submitted comments and implementation plans which were published as an Annex also in multiple languages.
Recent discussions on the so-called 28^th regime or a single simplified European Incorporation (EU-Inc) try to cut red tape in access to the European Single Market by creating a single company valid across the whole EU. However, it became quite clear that a separate and additional jurisdiction just for this EU-Inc would create additional administrative burdens of parallel courts and jurisdictions. Additionally, such an EU-Inc would open up ample possibilities of fraudulent evasion of taxes and social security contributions for businesses just created for this purpose from across the world. Sweden just had a hard time and succeeded in 2026 to dismantle a fraudulent network of Russian businesses set up in Sweden alone. Paris just picked a battle against fast fashion Chinese business SHEIN. Policing the EU-Inc across Europe would need thousands of additional persons and might disenchant many Europeans about the potentials of the European Single Market. (Image: Jacques Delors Centre Discussion of 28th Regime in Paris 2026-10-14)

Jacques Delors Centre Discussion of 28th Regime in Paris 2026-10-14

16/10/202615/10/2026

Booktok OMG OMG

The Frankfurt Book Fair #fbm26 has made considerable efforts to make it easy for the production of booktok content. The phenomenon of short recommendations of books by mostly young enthusiastic persons, some of them actually readers, has a proven record to influence decisions to buy books. In seemingly frank talks, booktokers admit that the first best solution is to go and get your copy or copies of different editions. Second best is actually reading them. Nothing wrong with that. After all, we all have many books on our shelves which we haven’t read or we haven’t finished reading yet – considering some books you want to refer back to several times or at a later stage in your life.
In 2026 the prestigious “Julius-Campe-Preis” for literary criticism and the promotion of reading (own translation) has been awarded to a critic commentator and booktoker, Thomas Sachsenmaier with an exceptionally broad reach in Germany. There are still too few literature critics who reach audiences across generations because of their presence in all media channels with high professional standards. Interesting “Booktok” is a skill, just like “youtuber” is a performance-based video production. “Oh-my-God (OMG), the times are a changing”.

Julius-Campe-Preis-an-Thomas-Sachsenmaier-2026

11/10/202610/10/2026

Traveling with-in books

Of course we like to travel or move it. Why not Madagascar? Most people would start to prepare such a journey online for a starting point. On the Frankfurt book fair, the publisher MairDumont reported that very quickly after we zoomed in on a destination, we ask ourselves: what info to trust. For publishers and authors the issue a crucial one as to build a reputation as a trustworthy brand is longer term investment. Holding up trust and to communicate about it, are the next on the agenda. Books or ebooks have this image as most of them are edited in a careful way with cross-checks by several persons. The not-social-media complement rather than replace a trusted source. People navigate between these forms. Authors who have insight knowledge and evidence that links and information have been validated are necessary conditions for success. We still travel with advice from books. Probably even more of us “travel in books”, where the reading of a travel guide becomes a fantasy journey. Traveling with or in books has a great ecologically-minded future, too.

09/10/202608/10/2026

Peak AI

Many scholars, economists and politicians have predicted peak oil production before and were wrong in the estimate of the timing of the turning point. At the occasion of the Frankfurt book fair #fbm26, the sector’s coming to grips with the use of AI is all over the place. AI is the elephant in the room which threatens jobs and complete business models, but also creates new opportunities. On the Global Stage on 2026-10-7 the panel on innovation and experimentation in publishing discussed the issues based on first experiences. When I asked Chat-GPT for an opinion on, whether one of the presenters gave a realistic assessment of the potential of AI in publishing, it came up with a rather sobering statement (see below). “Yes — the overall approach is realistic, but the slide makes it sound easier and more universal than it actually is.” A great opportunity for AI consulting to the sector subject to rapid change (again). Maybe the AI knows from my track record of prompts that I am a social scientist and favor critical thinking. Pleasing me, it ends by a suggestion that indirectly AI is less universal than is currently the dominant opinion. We might see a reckoning of AI that it (hopes) for its own sake, to be less universal than what the hype suggests. Peak AI could guarantee sufficient margins to survive comfortably, just like other not-so-social or not-so-sustainable sectors and technologies.

AI on AI - it is not so universal 2026-10 — AI on AI – it is not so universal 2026-10

08/10/202607/10/2026

Czechia coast

At the Frankfurt book fair we dream ourselves into the imagery of Czechia as a country with beaches and sand castles. The country pavilion of the partnerland of #fbm26 takes us to the ephemeral aspects of literature. While reading we deep dive into uncharted territories and discover unknown landscapes, sometimes even fees. These worlds of imagination become part of us or enlighten sequences of our life course. Taking the perspective of an external viewer widens cognitive and emotional predispositions. There are remarkable ol and new light houses to discover, too. Drawing as performative art, washed away every day like dreams, acknowledges the ephemeral nature of our reading or listening experiences. This message is going to stick with us.

Category: Zukunft

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