Man made climate change and local policies increase speed of aridification (Link). It is not only the Sahara desert that is spreading out, but the lake Aral is another horrible example of the disrespect mankind attributes to its own resources of living. As more regions become arid due to our faults and long term consequences of industrialization we provoke human resettlement of an increasing scale. Water resources are and have been for centuries the major reason for people to settle nearby. Aridification of the soil like in California increases the risks of wild fires. The costs associated with aridification are very high and such areas can no longer be insured through normal private insurers. In most cases poor people or countries are affected the most, but we are all likely to bear the consequences in one way or another. We will have to accept that the size of habitable areas on earth decreases while the peek demography of humans is still at least a decade away from now. Not to tackle aridification is not an option. When shall we ever learn? (Image: sketch for Hagar and Ishmael in the desert, by Navez 1819, MRBAB) 
Enshittification
Don’t laugh. This is a very serious scientific term to describe the way social media function in the 21st century. The scientific reference goes back to 2025 and article in “Science” by Kai Kupferschmidt. Twitter, now eXit, like most other social media platforms uses algorithms that select posts for you from the millions of posts that are likely to induce a reaction from you, which prolongs your time on the platform. Additionally, eXit Twitter applies an algorithm that prioritizes accounts with already a huge followership, which makes these accounts even bigger. The result is an increasing inequality in attention to info, facts, fake news, but also revenue for the platform owners through more advertisements. As hate speech and fake news are commonly perceived as shit, many social media are happy to spread more shitty things on their platforms as this generates more money for the platform as well. In short, enshittification happens sooner or later to most platforms and we all suffer from this. As user of these platforms, it is hard to escape from this process, as most platforms tend to “convert” to enshittification at some later point in their life cycle, unlike babies who manage to quit this phase after a few months. A move to Bluesky might be indicated, but there is no guarantee that the same process will just happen again. Mastodon is another small twitter-like platform that like Bluesky offers a more open approach to its governing algorithms and a more controlled access in the registration process.
To avoid enshittification, we have to be ready to move away from one platform to another one, just like changing bank accounts or club memberships. Make sure to take most of your friends with you and there are already tools for this online as well. Enjoy the safe online life again on another platform or consume more of the traditional media like newspapers, radio or tv with proven quality. (Image: extract from Jan Steen, 1625-1679, The Rhetoricians – “In liefde vrij”, MRBAB) 
Science and Fiction
We associate with science and fiction the extrapolation of scientific trends into some futuristic settings. The most striking examples of science fiction in novels or video use some scientific findings (dinosaurs, genetic engineering) and project this knowledge into another fictional setting. The usual personal relationships follow rather predictable plots of romance, deception, violence or war.
The novel “Wellness” (Hill 2024) is also a kind of science fiction as it is based on social science evidence and builds its fictional plot firmly embedded into the social and psychological research. The attachment of references (and defending the print of those in translation) underlines the commitment to write a new type of “social science fiction”.
In this innovative style the scientific basis of psychology and sociology is then extrapolated into a fictional arrangement. Research on subjective well-being with the U-shaped form over the life course and the extrapolation of the placebo effect, which is instrumentalized for a business, derive from key topics in the social sciences. In fact, the novel and the background scientific literature in the bibliography could well figure in a social science course at university entry level. These readings constitute a 360-degree-view on personal development and social structures. Of course, social sciences move on and add new evidence on an almost daily basis, but the selection and arrangement of the characters create an innovative social science fiction, without some unrealistic technological extrapolation.
It strangely feels like we are already part of this social science fiction (compare “Klara and the sun” by Ishiguro) as politicians advocate and campaign with placebo topics in elections and project us into some more happy past or future.
The social science fiction of Nathan Hill resembles for me the great utopian novel by George Orwell “1984” published in 1948. A title “2032” instead of “Wellness” could have worked quite well, as the first edition of Nathan Hill’s social science fiction was published already in 2023. (Image: Extract of: Lo Spagnolo, 1665-1747, Hecuba makes Polymnestor blind, MRBAB).
Not learning
For decades our attention has been focused on how learning works. However, at the beginning of 2025 it might be more important to shift our focus of learning research on “not learning”. Recent research on learning includes the study of “social learning” of mice (Winiarski et al. 2025) and the related brain mechanisms that are involved in social learning like the prelimbic cortex.
For our human societies we also rely to a great deal on social learning. In mice, however, the disruption of the prelimbic cortex causes mice to no longer seek “social information related to rewards” from other mice. In Eco-HAB cages these mice follow their scent capabilities to “sort” their information seeking from for example higher “social status animals”. This tested reward seeking behavior allows clues to how learning works. The intervention to disrupt the synaptic plasticity in a later phase of the experiment reveals less social learning from the network social information and fewer contributions to the social network.
Only intact neural plasticity in the prelimbic cortex ensures the maintaining of the social structure. Of course it is highly questionable, whether these results based on animal experiments tell us anything about social structure and social learning in other mammals, but there might be reasons to search for explanations of “no social learning” in humans as well. 
Wellness Sickness
There appears to be some kind of a relationship between the 2 conepts of wellness and sickness. Some would argue that the more sick you are, the more you seek wellness. Sickness seems to be the precursor of wellness for many people. Wellbeing or happiness are even higher order concepts which are only indirectly related to wellness. In an almost 600 pages science and fiction novel, Nathan Hill (Link) constructs his plot based on the psychological research on the placebo effect. With a sufficient aura around a pseudo-medication administered in a wellness clinic, the clients or some figure near the 50% random positive effects are treated with at least no negative side effects. On page 152 we find the more explicit description of how to induce a placebo effect in participants. Context, expectations, faith, symbols, metaphors and story are all ingredients for a placebo effect to work. Sometmes without knowing we receive a treatment in our childhood or throughout the life course that we work on using placebo effects to overcome them. The novel by Hill (2024) is a well researched psychological as well as sociological fiction including a bibliography, which reminds us „If you cling too hard to what you want to see, you miss what’s really there.“ (p. 496). 
Review Year
It is a nice common practice to wish „A happy New Year“ to people at the beginning of another calendar year. It is also a good practice to review the last twelve months yourself or with friends. We spend,however, much less time to listen to friendly or enemy fire as a kind of evaluation of what were the successes and failures of last year. In monarchies in the middle ages a clown or a fool was allowed to present criticisms with funny packaging. Nowadays, comedians have taken over this important role to review experiences and policies that worked or went awfully wrong. All media join in in this tradition and summarize what happened before the next busy months take over. Yes, it is important to devote time to this procedure. There is a risk that it becomes „the same procedure as every year“, but it is never to late to learn from failures or simple mistakes. Failed last year, fail better next year. 
Investment Disinvestment
Asume we live in a world of fixed amounts of investments. The option to invest in a new project or product will automatically reduce the amount of investment in another product. The investment decision, therefore, is subject to opportunity costs. A recent study by Naci et al. (2025) applies this rationale to the investment in new drugs compared to financing other traditional treatments. The results for the U.K between 2000 and 2020 revealed that the „quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)“ is not in favor of the investment in new drugs. The relatively small numbers of beneficiaries of the new drugs is compared to the many other persons who could have benefited from the less costly previous treatment. Investment in one new drug causes disinvestment in other ones. The overall balance for the UK turned out to be negative. Particularly the disinvestment in prevention of diseases appears to have very detrimental effects in view of the results based on this study. Preventative measures are relatively cheap compared to the estimated 20.000 pounds for one additional quality adjusted year of life for a new drug. The message is: choose your health investments wisely to avoid ever rising health costs and health insurance. (Image: rest room Belgium) 
Animal Longevity
- From time to time it is interesting to study animals from many species to maybe learn from them about longevity. Roberto Salguero-Gómez (LINK) developed a sociality continuum and compared 152 species across 13 taxonomic classes. The study reiterates and generalizes the many studies of single species and finds that „more social species live longer, have more generation time and longer reproductive windows“. Social structures amongst animals of the same species influence survival and reproduction as basic demographic processes. These processes determine to a large extent the size of animal populations. Sociality appears to be a major contributor to longevity compared across species. These processes determine the survival of rather solitary species like panda bears (running higher risks of extinction) compared to populations of bees with rather hierarchical predefined social structures. The spotted hyenas developed cooperative hunting and communal care which allows for effective survival compared to other species. Sociality is specific to species and therefore largely determined by genetic factors. Nature rather than nurture is at work. However, species where reproduction occurs later allow for learning curves of sociality. In other words even within species there is scope to improve longevity through sociality. Migration patterns or experience with migration might be yet another determinant of survival or longevity as climate change poses new challenges to many species.
No tobacco Sweden
Sweden is the forerunner as country with the lowest number of smokers across Europe and probably even the world with only 5% of the population 16 years and older. The success of these public health policies is due to banning smoking not only form pubs and restaurants, but also outside in the surroundings of public spaces like schools, playgrounds, train stations and sports facilities. These policies work quite well and the effects of discouraging smoking in public is reduced to a minimum rather than the normal encounter.
Health of the other persons and children passing through these areas is not the only goal. A new estimate of lost days or years due to smoking based on a study from England shows that “each cigarette smoked reduces the smoker’s life by about 20 minutes (17 for men, 22 for women, LINK to study). Of course, there is a huge variance and other work and life conditions that play an important role as well, but the broad average estimate is a nice way of talking about statistics. The basis of the estimate is for those who stop smoking and not those reducing their tobacco intake by some percentage or replacement product.
In the Belgian football stadium (image below 2024) in Brussels the No tobacco sign is well placed to make parents of children and youth understand the challenge ahead. Good resolutions are assisted by gentle regular reminders as well. 
More Battles
In 2025 we continue with the same battles as in the previous year. However, the way armies fight military battles has evolved. New types of weapons like drones have entered the stage. These precision weapons (Horowitz, 2024) have the advantage to be not only less costly than other heavy mass and costly artillery, they can also be guided in swarms to their targets. A further advantage is the steering of drones needs differently qualified persons rather than advancing with heavy armored vehicles on battlefields. Upskilling of defense forces is an important side effect. Jamming technology of radio frequencies was applied before, nowadays this has turned into a crucial defense strategy to intercept and derail drones and rockets off their intended targets.
Other than heavy weight arms, even laser beams enter the arsenal of weapons, if targets are sufficiently static in nature. These high-energy beams are still more in the research and testing realm rather than used on the battle field, but it becomes clear that research capacities play and played an important role throughout military history. The next generation of robots, not only in production processes, but more those walking on the battlefields is likely to change wars to less manned interventions. The technological innovations shall further move the spiral of new generations of weapons forward. Fewer soldiers, but more robots in the air, at sea and on the ground might increase the risks of “restrained”, less costly, but longer duration conflicts across the globe.
I always thought of robots as rescue robots to save lives. The flip side of the coin, however, is destruction before rescue as well. Technology can be put to both purposes. It is us who decide, which one takes the upper hand. 