Category: behavioral

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Find Trust

Societies have different levels of trust. Trust in politicians or political institutions has been researched a lot. Another example of trust is related to things lost and found. Losing an item on a train or a mobile phone somewhere are severe tests of the level of trust in a society. How likely is it that the item is going to be found and returned to you. We usually estimate the probability of the return of items as being rather low. The more we are surprised to find out that there are thousands of items found and returned. The Deutsche Bahn has a special service in operation to take care of lost items. Additionally, there are auctions of items found but nobody claimed the ownership of it in the following months. Not giving up on a lost item is the first step to find it again. It would be a nice test whether in high trust societies it is more likely to find something lost. If you have a higher trust that items will be returned you are also more likely to make the effort to claim the item back.

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AI Disruption

Many scientists started to question the disruptive potential of AI in, for example, the military’s domain. The Journal of Strategic Studies featured 3 papers on AI and autonomous systems more generally. The major argument by Anthony King is the reliance of autonomous systems on other systems mainly human operators even in the background to get these systems off the ground and maybe back again. Not only logistic support but also satellite communication is needed to guide and protect the operations. In quoting Clausewitz, Anthony King stated that war is a “collision of two living forces”. Strategy and counter-strategy will co-evolve as will attack and defence.
Jackie G. Schneider and Julia Macdonald (2024) advocate the use of autonomous and unmanned systems for their cost effectiveness. Economic costs as well as political costs are lower for these new strategic weapons. Mass fire power from swarms of drones is much cheaper than nuclear warheads and the home electorate is assumed to be more willing to accept and support limited and more precisely targeted unmanned missions. The disruption potential of AI is huge but it is most likely an addition to the arsenals than replacing them. (Image 2 swarms of drones fly in the air above tanks, created by AI – copilot-designer 2024-4-29).

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Time Perception

There are many different angles from which to look at time. Of course, we all do it several times a day or during boring meetings. The study by Ma, Cameron and Wiener (2024) highlights the bi-directional link of perceived time and memorability. Visual stimuli alter our perception of time. Watching a video we all make the experience that the perceived length of the time spent watching varies according to content and maybe only the cutting technique applied to shorten the perceived length. Similarly it has been demonstrated that looking for longer at an image and grasp the meaning or implicit story we tend to remember the image for longer. In courts it is a usual procedure to question the memory capacity of persons and the sources of bias. The study by Ma et al. demonstrates the impact of the size of the scene, how cluttered it is and aspects of memorability in visual perception. Our memories are co-determined by these factors. The other direction of causality i.e. that memorability determines the time perception seems equally at work. This apparent undetermined element, so far, calls for additional care when analyzing recall from memory. Memory is not only selective in terms of content, it also is subject to the impact of all sorts of visual stimuli.
Time can be many things. For humans it is everything but exact. In science we measure time with ever more exactitude and try to standardize time on the moon now. In addition to exact time, humans have perceived time and subjective versions and even concepts of time. About time to take time more seriously.

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Hospital Bias

Asking people about differences between private and public hospitals, you are most likely getting answers that the private hospitals deliver superior patient outcomes. Whereas private hospitals seem to have a positive stigma attached to them, public hospitals commonly have a negative stigma. Scientific evaluations are helpful to set the record straight again. The study published in “The Lancet Regional Health” in 2024 shows that in the simple descriptive statistics on several patient outcome indicators, this is what the data showed between 2026 and 2019. However, a more precise statistical analysis reveals that there is also a selective admission to the private and public hospitals in England. Using so-called instrumental variables approaches that account for the selection process between admission to the 2 types of hospitals (private versus public) most of the differences between the hospital types disappear. The underlying mechanism is a sorting of different patients into the private or public hospitals. Put in easy words, for a routine intervention people tend to chose the private hospital, but the more rare and difficult operations were more likely admitted to public hospitals. The number of co-morbidities (heart disease) is also of importance as they might negatively affect patient outcomes. Jumping to conclusions and reinforcing stigma about public or private provision of services hinders progress and an equitable provision of services.
The analysis of a potential selection bias can reveal the “creaming” effect of private provision of (health) services. Just caring for the “easy” or routine cases and avoiding the more difficult and costly cases has economic advantages, but for society as a whole the costs overall remain the same. A good public service in health is a definite asset.

(Image: Exposition Isa Genzken 2023 in Neue Nationalgalerie Berlin)

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Family Kafka

100 years after Franz Kafka’s death nearly all facets of his life and writings have been analyzed. The archives of the editor Wagenbach and the publishing house have now opened an exhibition at the “Stabi Ost” in Berlin adding a family picture book description of Kafka’s life (Curator Hans-Gerd Koch). This is of interest because Kafka himself had written an extensive letter to his father (Brief an den Vater) in which he tries to understand his intricate relationship with his father and other family members.
Nowadays, some people would try to analyze Kafka’s life through the parapsychological technique of family constellations. The far-reaching and pan-European family networks of the Kafka (father) and Löwy (mother) families were more than just an excellent source of inspiration. 2 younger brothers died in their first year. 3 younger sisters followed more traditional evolutionary patterns within families. The television series on Kafka’s life add to the understanding of his sources of inspiration and “parallel worlds” he created and lived in. The exceptional “fictionalization” of his own life and existence in the spirit of André Breton’s surrealism remains a milestone in the history of literature.
Kafka himself thought he was not really “instagrammable”at the time, but his image has reached and still reaches millions of people (Link to Picture archive). He himself would probably have defended the thesis that the most powerful images are within us. … and they are hard to escape from.
(Image from Exposition in Staatsbibliothek Berlin 2024-4, QR-code links to reading in originals!)

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AI Defence

For those following the development in robotics we have been astonished by the progress of, for example, rescue robots. After an earthquake such robots could enter a building that is about to collapse and search the rooms for survivors. A recent article in “Foreign Affairs” by Michèle A. Flournoy has started its thinking about the use of AI in the military with a similar 20 year old example. A small drone flying through a building and inspecting the dangers of entering for persons or soldiers. Since then technology has advanced and the use of AI for automatic detection of dangers and “neutralising” it, is no longer science fiction. The wars of today are a testing ground for AI enhanced military strategies. It is about time that social scientists get involved as well.
Warfare left to robots and AI is unlikely to respect human values unless we implement such thoughts right from the be beginning into the new technology. An advanced comprehension of what algorithms do and what data they are trained on are crucial elements to watch out for. According to Flourney, AI will assist in planning as well as logistics of the military. Additionally, AI will allow a “better understanding of what its potential adversaries might be thinking”. Checking through hours of surveillance videos is also likely to be taken over by AI as the time consuming nature of the task binds a lot of staff, that may be put to work on other tasks. Training of people and the armed forces become a crucial part of any AI strategy. The chances to develop a “responsible AI” are high in the free world that cherishes human rights and democratic values. Raising curiosity about AI and an awareness of the dangers are two sides of the same coin or bullet. Both need to grow together.
(Image created by Dall-E Copilot Prompt: “5 Robots disguised as soldiers with dash cams on helmet encircle a small house where another robot is hiding” on 2024-4-23)

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Digital Estonia

The progress of Estonia in going digital is quite advanced. The electronic identity card which allows data to be linked to health data and accounts or banking gives an impression of how far-reaching digitalization may go. Great steps have been taken to guide the population on the way to move towards the digital (only) world. Learning and coaching of a huge amount need to take place so that people do not abandon or get lost on the path towards “everything digital”. For the so-called digital natives, who have grown up with the sound of their smartphone at the bedside all the time, this move feels “natural”. Some experienced or silver workers got on track, if they were accompanied in suitable forms. The 65+ population might find it harder to adapt to the permanent use of digital devices for not only getting around in your city, but also to do your tax declaration, pay your dues and vote in elections.
Digitalization is not a goal in itself. It has advantages to reach communities in remote places or islands, but it might alienate older persons that have no other person around to assist them in the digital only world. An easy way to get some social science data to inform the debate is to refer to Eurostat and the surveys with information about the “overall life satisfaction” of people (EU-SILC). Checking for some major countries of the EU and neighbours of Estonia with less digitalization the differences are rather small. In terms of overall life satisfaction (16+ years old) Estonia has been catching up to the EU-average mainly between 2013 and 2021. Since then, stagnation at the EU-average is what the data tell. A quick testing of the hypothesis that the older persons (65+) might not see the past evolution as rosy is reflected in the EU-data as well. Good pensions seem to drive the “happiness” of older persons in the EU more than good digitalization. Eventually the two features of a society will have to go hand in hand to improve life satisfaction to higher levels. (Image: Data Eurostat EU-SILC Life satisfaction 65+, selected countries 2013-2023, retrieved on 2024-4-23, comparison with table all ages here, Data source)

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Opera Politics

We know that sports and international politics have ample links. This holds true for Opera performances, either due to the way they are presented or due to the content of the libretto. The opera Jeanne d’Arc (Giovanna  de Arco, Jungfrau von Orléans) by Guiseppe Verdi was composed in 1844 and had its Premiere at La Scala in Milano 1845. The libretto is based on the drama written by the playwriter Friedrich Schiller. Later in the 19th century musical pieces followed that dealt with the court judging Jeanne d’Arc. The opera by Verdi creates a strong female voice and character which outperforms men around her. Obviously, she was and remains for many a quasi-mythological heroine. In short, this constitutes great plots for drama and operas. This is centuries old despite the rare occasions of more recent performances of Jeanne d’Arc in form of Verdi’s opera or other forms.
The Opera as arena of politics is currently tested in the Opera at Tallinn Estonia. Due to the aggression and occupation of Ukranian territory by Russia the plot of Jeanne d’Arc regained another European location of potential application. Ukraine pushed back the Russian invasion and struggles to win back its territory from the invaders. The performance of the Opera recreates an impressive Jeanne d’Arc in the person of Elena Brazhnyk who was trained at the National Tchaikovsky Music Academy of Ukraine. The evening inspired hope in many respects. Talents from Ukraine or trained in Ukraine reach out into to the world. Similarly, we have much reason to be inspired by courageous acts. Operas do politics. “Bravi”, as they say in Italian.
(Image: Opera Tallinn-Estonia2024-4-18)

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Schachliteratur

Es gibt sie noch, die Personen, die Schachbücher lesen und kaufen. In vielen Sprachen existiert die Niche der heimlichen Strategen. „Teaching old dogs new tricks“ oder ist es eher „teaching young dogs old tricks“. Das ist eine empirische Frage. Nicht nur Zeitungen für sogenannte BildungsbürgerInnen haben noch kleine Spalten zumeist mit Schachproblemen. Manchmal findet sich Schachspielen sogar als Schulfach. Lesestoff zum Schachspiel findet sich reichlich. Schach in der Literatur ist jedoch verschieden von der Schachliteratur, die sich mit Strategien und Tempi befasst.

Das Lesen von Schachliteratur mit Meisterpartien hervorragender Spielenden ist vergleichbar dem Lesen einer Partitur einer Symphonie oder Oper. Das Kino spielt sich dabei überwiegend im Kopf ab. Gelegentliche unvermittelte Gesten oder Ah-laute sollten den Spielenden ihrer Verzückung wegen entschuldigt werden. Vielleicht sollten die Schulen diese Kulturtechniken mehr vermitteln. Macron‘s Vorschlag Theaterspielen mehr in den Schulen zu vermitteln erscheint in diesem Vergleich als ein Entgegenkommen an die „Generation der sich ständig selbst inszenierenden“. Mehr Spielen ist aber schon mal ein wegweisender Vorschlag.

Schachbücher 2024
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AI Reader

In the middle of the hype around AI it is useful to take stock of the reflection and evolution of AI. In my own analyses and writings on AI it evident that a narrowing of focus has taken place. Whereas before 2022 the writing dealt more with digital technologies in general. The links to the literature on the social construction of technologies was obvious. Algorithms and AI was a part of the broader topic of society and technology.
This has changed. The public debate is focused on “everything AI now”. We look at technological developments largely through the lens of AI now. Hence, my focus of assessments of technology from a societal perspective follows this trend. In a collection of blog entries on AI we try to demonstrate the far reaching changes that have started to have an impact on us. In the last few months the all encompassing concern about AI’s effect on us needs full attention of social scientists, policy makers, companies and the public at large. We can no longer leave this topic to the software engineers alone. By the way, they themselves ask us to get involved and take the latest advances in AI more seriously.
As a “flipbook” the online reading is rather comfortable (Link to flipbook publisher MPL). The pdf or epub files of the blog entries allow to directly follow the links to sources in webpages or other publications (AI and Society 2p 2024-4-18). The cycles of analyses and comments have become faster. Traditional book writing suffers from time lags that risk to make pubications outdated rather quickly. Dynamic ebook writing might bridge the gap between time to reflect and speed to publish or inform the wider public. The first update as .pdf-file is available here: AI and Society(2).