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Biased Results

The use of statistics in presenting results of research is common practice. Empirical studies are summarized using statistics and statistical methods based on samples of bigger populations are cost efficient. However, care needs to be exercised when interpreting results to guard against inappropriate conclusions derived from biased estimates. Since the topic has been highlighted and methods proposed to handle them, these methods were deemed worthy of a Nobel prize.  The basic problem of a bias due to a selective sample has been demonstrated by Stockwell et al. (2024). The authors investigate the old question, whether a little bit of alcohol consumption (per day) could be beneficial for our health. The statistical issue which needs careful examination is the construction of the control group against which the results are compared. Apparently many studies have biased control groups which included persons in the not drinking control group who had stopped drinking for bad health previously. Compared to those persons with other health conditions those drinking a little bit compared rather well. But of course such individuals should not be present in a control group. Of the control group is biased due to many persons with below average health the groups of interest consuming higher levels of alcohol do not perform so badly. Hence, interpretation of results from medical or social science studies has to consider carefully the actual or potential sources of bias. Not really a new results in statistics, but still not well known or understood by the public at large. Drug consumption as well as studies of this consumption could deserve the same sticker: handle with care. (Image: Extract from Tenier II David, Les fumeurs, also entitled Chanson à boire, 17th century, Paris Petit Palais).

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Sun power

Statistics of hours of sunshine in Germany and many European countries show an extraordinary amount of sunny days in March 2025 compared to previous years. This opens up a window of opportunity to produce electricity already in a month previously less likely to yield a lot of energy. With more likely 8 months of decent electricity production the efficiency of investments in solar energy reach break even points earlier. Time to think of expanding the share of renewable energy even further. The cost effectiveness is improving in rather unpredictable ways. Economists, of course, consider opportunity costs in this case the alternative to use oil or gas despite the higher levels of CO2 emissions. As the prices are currently lower as well, without an easily predictable trend, solar alternatives are a valid option.

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Retirement Plans

There are debates about the best organization of retirement. The major fault lines lie between public pension systems and systems that are built based on mainly private provision. Retirement plans in either system are subject to constraints. The recent stock market turbulence has increased the amount of uncertainty people face who invested in 401K plans in the US. Some had to take an unannounced hit to their retirement savings due to the loss after Trump’s back and forth policies on tariffs (OECD Pension Outlook). High volatility of stock market prices creates an additional constraint that you are less inclined to retire when your retirement investments have overall a reduced value. You are a bit at the mercy of capital markets even in your retirement decision, irrespective of the difficulty to predict what your retirement funds will yield as returns. Quite an important lesson to keep in mind when comparing retirement systems in OECD countries. It has been all too easy to blame public pension systems for maybe lower short term interests on pension savings. Being subject to an American president concerning your retirement plans is probably not what many countries would like to have. Trump’s choices on tariffs may have consequences we did not expect to affect us so directly.

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Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

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Deus DEI

In Latin the declination of deus = god starts with the genitive form “dei”. In the world of universities and labor markets the abbreviation “DEI” stands for diversity, equity and inclusion. These 3 topics have ensured for years that a university campus looks a bit more like society at large, even if biased towards younger generations. The MAGA saga of the USA in 2025 starts to turn the clock back on hard to accomplish advances in DEI-hiring and promotion. This likely to reduce the number of international students on US campuses and will make campuses look WEIRD again. Moreover, lots of talented students will seek DEI campuses in other countries to avoid discriminatory hiring practices and arbitrary risk of visa denial.  Europe is likely to benefit from this kind of brain drain and skill shortages might be substantially reduced due to such unprecedented shifts in US policies. The cuts of billions of grants to renowned universities for political reasons will leave a yawning gap of talent in the US in a few years time, the latest. Early movers will move very quickly to anticipate the exodus of talent.  It is puzzling to watch how quickly years of DEI policies might be undone with thousands of people and projects at a loss. Scholars of American history are reminded of the McCarthy era of political prosecution or the dismal period for science under the Nazi-rule in Germany. Americans seem to get much worse and extreme policies than they thought they voted for. “Deus Dei” also means “god of god” and in the current American political context the judgement of a god by another god has maybe a historical meaning. In the table of the Estonian town hall in Tallinn the inscription alerts rulers to beware of being judged as well. Sounds like a timely reminder to overly ambitious politicians.

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Warming consequences

The live of honey bees is rather busy and well organized. Global warming necessitates new risks and new opportunities for honey bees. The flowering season starts earlier in Europe and bees start earlier ro their collection of nectar and their service of pollination to other flowers. In early April 2025 in France near Paris we observe wild bees already in their daily routine. However, the risk of cold nights is still there, albeit those building their homes below the surface are a bit less at risk during a frosty night. Seeking a clever shelter is a good strategy for survival particularly at times of global warming. Some kinds of wild bees seem to sense this already changing homes from one season to next one. Humans remain their toughest enemies as they restrict their choices quite severely. Man-made pollution and herbicides are beyond bees’ control and cause havoc in the ecosystem of bees. Apiculture is an interesting science also for social scientists as this forerunner species of the matriarchy has evolved into a well-organized productive society. They are a bit harsh to each other and communication is rather unidirectional, but an interesting social cosmos of its own kind.

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Value destruction

The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset).

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Time Horizon

For ages human time horizons have worked as a succession of generations. With substantial population aging we have many more families where we find 4 generations alive at the same time. In nature and with respect to biodiversity the sequences of renewable have not changed much. Old trees that have been cut will take another 100 years to grow old again. Wild fires or human negligence risk big in this respect. Forests take several human generations to grow and thrive. Diversity is key there as well as many fast growing monocultures have increased risks in case of fires caused by global warming. Annual inspection of a forest that suffered a severe drought and fires is still looking dismal compared to before. (Foret de Senart, France 2025).

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Rich richer

The US economy under Biden had continued to make Americans richer. In an article by Talmon Joseph Smith in the New York Times from 2025-4-3 p. 7 the puzzle that Americans have grown richer, but don’t feel it, has been well explained. The large share of households owning their homes albeit with mortgages from low interest periods have witnessed their increased wealth. However, inflation is eating into their cash available for daily purchases. With another round of tariffs and additional inflationary pressure caused by those, the average person or household doesn’t fell much better off than some years ago. Economic anxiety and our preference for loss aversion or loss avoidance make us react with consumption restrictions to prepare for increased risks as well increased uncertainty about the directions of the whole economy and our very private wealth and consumption patterns. How and when the US economy will get back on track remains to be seen. Higher uncertainty usually reduces investments and with increasing interest rates again the economic recovery might be protracted. The NYT p.7 cites business owners with statements like “we’re not putting our foot on the brake, but we’re taking our foot off the gas.” Betrayel of working class people due to rising unemployment after 3 years of very low unemployment is likely to widen wealth gaps in the US population even further. The rich will get richer, but at high costs to the population as a whole. (Image: ceiling painting in Petit Palais, Paris).

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Intimate housing

The housing of famous persons has always attracted a lasting fascination. The “esprit des lieux” or the experience of the surroundings of an artist, composer, author or otherwise famous person, where most of the work had taken place is of general interest. In today’s language we would describe this as the context of creation. Biographical information and references to specific objects central to the process of creation play a crucial role in understanding what is behind human creation as it is district from AI. There are objects ( compare MAD Paris) and there are the social networks of creators. Modern biographies include both, some even in graphic forms similar to ancestry diagrams. 

The design of intimate living spaces for private life or the adequate environment for creativity are becoming more clear with the consciousness of the importance of dedicated designs of furniture, accessories and even scent. Our brains are multimodal and working as well as processing lots of information even beyond our conscious realizations. This black box of creativity is rather unique to the human brain and AI will probably take decades to emulate such complex processing. The MAD exhibition reveals that intimacy is also related to housing design and interior design. It doesn’t seem to be a random process, but habituation is part of the continued creative process.