In 2025 we continue with the same battles as in the previous year. However, the way armies fight military battles has evolved. New types of weapons like drones have entered the stage. These precision weapons (Horowitz, 2024) have the advantage to be not only less costly than other heavy mass and costly artillery, they can also be guided in swarms to their targets. A further advantage is the steering of drones needs differently qualified persons rather than advancing with heavy armored vehicles on battlefields. Upskilling of defense forces is an important side effect. Jamming technology of radio frequencies was applied before, nowadays this has turned into a crucial defense strategy to intercept and derail drones and rockets off their intended targets.
Other than heavy weight arms, even laser beams enter the arsenal of weapons, if targets are sufficiently static in nature. These high-energy beams are still more in the research and testing realm rather than used on the battle field, but it becomes clear that research capacities play and played an important role throughout military history. The next generation of robots, not only in production processes, but more those walking on the battlefields is likely to change wars to less manned interventions. The technological innovations shall further move the spiral of new generations of weapons forward. Fewer soldiers, but more robots in the air, at sea and on the ground might increase the risks of “restrained”, less costly, but longer duration conflicts across the globe.
I always thought of robots as rescue robots to save lives. The flip side of the coin, however, is destruction before rescue as well. Technology can be put to both purposes. It is us who decide, which one takes the upper hand. 
Cumulative Mandates
Since 2010 and with 18 volumes the documentation of perpetrators assistants free riders during the Nazi rule in Germany has been valuable and reliable source of information (Kugelberg Verlag). The book series defines the perpetrators as the persons excuting crimes themselves or were in command of those who committed the crimes or gave orders to do so. It is not surprising to find evidence of many crimes, but rather that it took such a long time until the documents were published and the descendants were confronted with the facts and the difficult heritage. There are still many who undertake all efforts to deny the facts or try to minimize the guilt of perpetrators. With the real dangers of new right-wing extremism on the rise across Europe and even beyond, it becomes more important to uncover the strategies and biographies of the perpetrators. Certainly the members of the SS were executives and in command of atrocities, so-called NSDAP party officials were also mostly convinced followers of Nazi doctrines and instrumental in the implementation of crimes. Additionally, several professions (line soldiers or medical doctors) were key in the process to ensure the power of the totalitarian regime until the final days. Some persons were cumulating roles and became thereby inescapable spiders in a web of control and crimes. The lessons for today consist in hindering excessive cumulation of mandates, political, professional, military and in other work or civil society related functions. Distribution of power is one form to safeguard the survival of democratic structures. 
Victim Perpetrator
Research on the Shoa and the Nazi crimes has a clear cut separation into millions of victims and millions of perpetrators. There is only a very small group of persons who risked their lives in their attributed or chosen role of perpetrators and saved lives. Most of those persons received recognition later, some decades later. The vast majority of persons were oblivious to their prior roles and some even tried to defend them themselves through a variant of victim blaming in recurrent attempts to reduce their guilt. Another frequent excuse is to recur to a perpetrator’s own experience as a victim of abuse or tough childhood. In a static perspective this might work, but the learning and reflection ability of humans apply to all persons irrespective of age, if they show the willingness to do so. victimization is powerful tool to justify a role as perpetrator later on. Criminal courts assisted by psychologists statements accept guilt reduction. After all those considerations the basic classification into victim or perpetrator remains a valid differentiation, only very few cases allow for a more nuanced assessment of the case. (image extract of Rachel Baes MRBAB Brussels) 
Reconciliation
European history is a long history of atrocities committed against humanity. The Documentation Centre for Displacement, Expulsion, Reconciliation in Berlin (Image below) captures this history in a comprehensive manner. We are quickly overwhelmed by this weight of history and the implications this has for the understanding of the people on the globe. This relatively new learning centre has, beyond the memorable permanent and temporary exhibitions, a room of silence to recover from the hard work of remembrance, always in view of reconciliation.
The library allows personal search and research of migration documents and biographies. All centuries have their history of displacements, but the Nazi terror surpassed all prior records and forced millions into displacement or death. We are still working on this heritage and the enlightenment of how these atrocities could take place. Full consciousness of the terror and horror of the 30s and 40s is necessary to guard against the many attempts to falsify historical events or discard the sorrow of millions of people and their families.
Reconciliation remains a continuous challenge. A large part of diplomacy has to deal with reconciliation beyond concerns of daily affairs. It is not just a matter for head of states and days-off during a year. Stillness helps to deal with the challenge, especially if it is very difficult to find adequate words. 
On Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a catchword for all sorts of undetermined occurrences, which we might have to confront. We associate economic uncertainty with the difficulty to forecast or predict the economic evolution of key indicators like inflation, GDP, CO2-emissions, energy and raw materials’ prices and availability. Even factors like increases in greed of CEOs, psychological factors like insecurity about external or internal conflicts drive these macroeconomic indicators. Micro-level features of your own stage or evolution of the life course have an impact on and will be affected by uncertainty. Employment, housing, family, or household composition are subject to high levels of uncertainty. These micro- and macro- level factors are, of course, not limited to the domain of economic phenomena. Most recently, political uncertainty has reentered the international and national sphere with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. This election outcome of the U.S. is perceived by many as increasing the overall uncertainty due to the unpredictability of political decisions and even previous treaties with the U.S. or where the U.S. is a major partner in the agreement. These economic and political uncertainties are accompanied with a perception of growing legal uncertainty even in very personal spheres of life. Last, but not least uncertainty about climate changes like heating up of the planet and more devastating flooding and droughts contribute to increased uncertainty about future developments and the need to initiate adjustment processes and the financing of those.
The individual and societal ways to cope with increased uncertainty are one of the major economic, political, legal and social issues for the coming years. The answers are likely to be found in mutual, cooperative and risk sharing arrangements. The social in society will be a major part of dealing with increased uncertainty. 
(Image: Extrait of Paul Klee, Seiltänzer 1923)
Commemoration
In The month of November we commemorate those who died and particularly all those who died in the combat for freedom and democracy. The Russian aggression does not show many signs of ending the killing of soldiers and civilians on both sides. Ukrainian forces struggle to resist the Russian occupation of its territory as Russia is sacrificing thousands of lives for small gains of territory it is unlikely to defend in the coming months if Ukraine possesses longer reach weapons. A new spiral of an apocalypse is most probably the result of the Russian insistence on external aggression to cover up more internal problems. A lost generation of young soldiers who died in combat or suffered mutilation will be the outcome of these atrocities. The inflationary effects of wheat and energy prices globally have caused additional casualties in countries that had absolutely no stakes in this war. Russia is to blame for those additional casualties as well as the adverse effects on the world‘s climate due to the fighting and destroyed materials that need replacing later on. The young Russian generation will have to stand up against Putin‘s call to war and put down their weapons. This is one way to end the spiral toward yet another apocalyptic experience in Europe and the silent killing through hunger beyond Europe. (Image: BNF Paris, Apocalypses 2024)
Comprehensive Conflict
In a recent paper Mara Karlin (2024 Foreign Affairs LINK) has stated the need for the Western World to understand and even prepare for comprehensive conflict. Particularly in response to Putin‘s war on Ukraine’s territory and the threats and potential use of the full range of weapons including cyber warfare, destruction of energy resources and military production sites the current war comes close to total war. Several European countries have made significant steps to increase budgets for the new forms of comprehensive conflict management. This starts with adequate discussion in public on the dramatically changed security situation after the „Zeitenwende“ caused by Putin. The forceful Ukrainian response with much financial assistance from the West has pioneered drone counter strikes and by this put an end to the Russian progression into its territory. In order to match the total war ideology Putin is implementing in Russian society the Western world will have to rethink production models and strategic defense capabilities in all areas to match the rather real threats by Russia. The prevention of the spreading of comprehensive conflict is of utmost importance since the risk of an expansion of Russian influence and suppression of any internal resistance in Russia has devastating consequences. The 2024 book by Tatjana Tönsmeyer „Under German Occupation, Europe 1939-1945“ (own translation of German title) demonstrates what it meant to live under the domination of an inhuman dictatorship which is ready to use all out war and violence at any occasion. We have to confront this, even if we don’t want to face it. Nevertheless, the Russian aggression is also strongly targeted on its own people not to take risks of separation from Russia as this would mean devastating destruction to those regions and people who dare to do so. External explosions are therefore for Putin a prevention of implosion of the Russian Federation similar to the Soviet Union previously. Comprehensive Conflict extinguishes any remaining internal opposition as intended collateral damage. In Western countries, however, we shall have to argue with opponents and build majorities through understanding the issues at stake not through silencing opponents and opposition. The debate about comprehensive conflict is only about to start, but it is likely to last for several election cycles. (own image, Contemplation on infinite landscapes, Berlin 2024)
History’s Weight
The artist Damien Deroubaix is currently exposed at the BNF.fr in its historic site Richelieu. Together with and next to some of the historic treasures of the BNF collections the unique exhibition allows to experience history’s weight on our current existence. The work of Deroubaix is following and pursuing historic art trajectories with a special historical and ethical consciousness. Techniques of art are insensitive to the moral compass of the painter in history. The collections of the BNF like all major European collections have to handle their colonial past and immoral depictions throughout history. Deroubaix accomplished to liberate techniques of art of their colonial linkages and imagination of emperors focusing on humanitarian values. War is horror, in the past and in the present. Genocide in Rwanda is war crime and dealing with the memories of people an honorable way to look forward conscious of the past. Hybrid forms of art allow multiple contextualizations of his work. In the Galerie Mansart and Pigott of the BNF the historical embedding enriches the art and vice versa. Art allows us to rise beyond the ashes mankind has and continues to inflict on us. (Images: extracts of Damien Deroubaix at BNF, Paris 2024)
Russian Demographics
Dictators prepare their countries long before for upcoming wars. One indicator of such strategies is the pursuit of “natalist” policies. These are demographic policies that aim to increase a country’s population so that the human losses endured during war maybe recovered faster. Russia has had such a policy doctrine in place for quite many years. Only, it didn’t work. Alain Blum and Sergei Zakharov (2023) have shown this in their paper on “L’obsession nataliste de Poutine“. Rather than achieving a growth in the population, at best, the further rather rapid decline of fertility and the population size before the war is reflected in the data (until 2022). The recent objection of youth and women to bear more children is subject of massive opposition of Putin’s forces inside the country. So-called total fertility of 1.5 per woman before the war is as low as or lower than in many other European countries. However, on the other end of aging is mortality or life expectancy. The data show a rather bleak picture of Russia already before the invasion of Ukraine. Based on data published from INED in France Russia has about 1.000.000 more people dying in 2022 than babies born. Bad handling of the Covid-19 pandemic (inefficient vaccines) is also a reason for this dent in population size. Adding outmigration of youth that does not want to stay in a country that goes to war with peaceful neighbors, this bleak population outlook is the disastrous heritage of the Putin years of Russia in the 21st century for generations to come as well. 
Scorched earth
The Russian military strategy in Ukraine is yet another example of scorched earth. Upon retreat the space is left in a devastated state. Worst of all are the land mines that kill or mutilate even after the immediate danger has passed. The logic in the Russian aggression in Ukraine is particularly strange as the Russians were arguing this is their land and claim the people living there were mostly Russians. The retreat of Russian troops eventually will leave huge territories scorched. The destruction of energy infrastructure is also clearly targeting the population at large to make entire regions difficult to live or survive in during the approaching cold winter months. Decentralized energy provision rather than huge power plants have become a survival strategy for Ukraine and probably its neighboring countries. Sensitivity to the dangers of scorched earth is important to get priorities right for relief.
Artists sometimes show us the way ahead with bright colors, if only we were able to see or understand the signs or signals. (Image extract from Mark Bradford “Scorched Earth”, SMB Berlin, National Gallerie der Gegenwart im Hamburger Bahnhof, 2024-9)
