Category: behavioral

Posted on

Happy Life

There are countries in this world that want to prescribe to their citizens what constitutes a happy life. Religious beliefs are another powerful instigation of what may be called a happy life now or in the future. Most people on earth, however, have their very own idea about happiness and how to get closer to this moment, phases or destiny of their lives.

Happy life is also the title of the novel or „une fable optimiste“ by David Foenkinos with the almost programmatic title „La vie heureuse“. It has been qualified as a bit absurd, but at the time of celebrating 100 years of surrealism, this fits into the surreal world episodes and narratives that surround us. The novel is full of ups and downs for the major characters, which reflects the inevitable links of happy relative to unhappy moments in life. The pseudo experience of death allows to press a kind of reset button in life after which love and life can start afresh. This might not work for all us as Foenkinos seems to tell us with the choice of the dedication and citation of Charlotte Salomon „On devait même, pour aimer plus encore la vie, être mort une fois“. Charlotte Salomon, however, lives on through her formidable artistic work accomplished in her short life.

Posted on

Russian Demographics

Dictators prepare their countries long before for upcoming wars. One indicator of such strategies is the pursuit of “natalist” policies. These are demographic policies that aim to increase a country’s population so that the human losses endured during war maybe recovered faster. Russia has had such a policy doctrine in place for quite many years. Only, it didn’t work. Alain Blum and Sergei Zakharov (2023) have shown this in their paper on  “L’obsession nataliste de Poutine“. Rather than achieving a growth in the population, at best, the further rather rapid decline of fertility and the population size before the war is reflected in the data (until 2022). The recent objection of youth and women to bear more children is subject of massive opposition of Putin’s forces inside the country. So-called total fertility of 1.5 per woman before the war is as low as or lower than in many other European countries. However, on the other end of aging is mortality or life expectancy. The data show a rather bleak picture of Russia already before the invasion of Ukraine. Based on data published from INED in France Russia has about 1.000.000 more people dying in 2022 than babies born. Bad handling of the Covid-19 pandemic (inefficient vaccines) is also a reason for this dent in population size. Adding outmigration of youth that does not want to stay in a country that goes to war with peaceful neighbors, this bleak population outlook is the disastrous heritage of the Putin years of Russia in the 21st century for generations to come as well.

Posted on

Patient Capital

There is something cultural about capital. Different cultures use different narratives when they commonly talk about capital. In Western capitalist societies it is common practice to cite “capital is a fugitive dear”, meaning that people who command sizeable amounts of capital tend to flee places once they become to agitated, especially by politicians. The Eastern narrative surrounding capital is more focused on “patient capital”. The newspaper “China Daily” has more than 6.000 entries referring to this term. On 2024-9-26 (p.9) the Japenese economist Kazuyuki Motohashi praised the Japanese economic system and its specific form of patient capitalism as based on” long-term, stable investment, which enables companies to achieve sustainable growth in the long run”. The Chinese economy suffers as Western capitalism from excessive focus on short-term profit seeking and this causes huge market flucturations shifting quickly from shortages to oversupply and back again. Short-term rent seeking is driving whole industries into fluctuations that are hard to attenuate through other economic (fiscal and monetary) as well as labour market policies (training, re-locations, internal migration).
It is interesting to witness that recently in Germany an example of a bank that had benefited from a patient capital approach of the German government for more than a decade (Commerzbank) is now prone to a bit of a hostile takeover from another bank probably more interested in the short-term rent-seeking. After all, banking and the varieties of capitalism approach highlight that at the very heart of economic rationale there remains a little bit of a cultural twist to understand what is happening in international economics and competition.(Image: Musée Rodin Paris 2024, Le Penseur”)

Posted on

Fiscal Union

European Integration is slow and hard to come by. For others it is moving too fast (Brexit). Cultural diversity is a real asset of the EU. The economy or the economies are powerful on an international scale. Nevertheless, the diversity concerning the tolerance of fiscal deficits is still widely spread across the Member States of the EU (see image below). Some states seem to play it cool and run relatively high deficits compared to the EU averages. In OECD comparisons most of the above average fiscal deficits are closer to or even below OECD averages over time (link to pdf-file OECD, 2024). Within the EU differences in government expenditure as % of GDP or the indicator of Gross public debt according to the Maastricht Criteria range from 20% to 160% as percentage of GDP. This entails a different level of resilience to future crises. After we managed to leave the previous 3 crises (financial, Covid-19, energy) it is time to prepare for what might come next in terms of challenges. Preparing public deficits to be able to soften economic shocks is essential to be able to sustain yourself and support others. We seem to be a bit off-target to coordinate fiscal deficits across the Union. Eastern and Northern countries have suffienct scope to support expansionist fiscal policies, be it in the realm of a defence union or to address climate change. Southern Europe will find it more difficult to raise additional funds to prepare now for future challenges. Fiscal deficits might even be not only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one as well. If we compare Japan with a deficit running at 240% with South Korea with 50% Asia is showing even larger diversity in terms of fiscal preparedness.
An economist’s stance on fiscal policy and fiscal union might depend much more on her/his region or country of origin than economists might want to believe.
Images: OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c671124e-en. p.17.

Posted on

Traffic Speed

Most people use cars or other automotive vehicles (e-bikes, e-scooter) to get faster from point A to point B. However, speed of traffic causes trouble for other groups of mobile persons. Demands on attention rise, despite the abundant use mobile phones even during driving a car. Mapping systems and services from A to B have become an almost daily exercise. Statistics on road accidents that involved inadequate speed are between 20 and 30 percent of all deadly road accidents, depending on the source of information and country (Example D). Frequently, speed is not the only cause, but other behavioral mistakes occur jointly.
Traffic signs are a basis to make drivers aware of accident prone locations. Too many of them may even lead to the opposite effect of ignoring the signs. Reducing the speed of traffic in inner cities is a steep challenge and many cities invest substantial amounts of money and effort to monitor and try to control better excessive speed. Schools, sports centres and shopping areas are all hot spots of automotive and pedrian encounters. They deserve special attention. Penalizing excessive speed is one way to nudge behavioral change. Although the statistics on the huge amounts of penalties awarded does not seem to alter the behavior of traffic participants in the short run. For some it appears to be a regular part of their budget of mobility with no consequence for behavioral changes.
For years the dangers of inadequate traffic speed in cities made young families and older persons leave more risky inner cities, but adaptations of hot spots and increased control systems seem to work in the long run. The “externality” of inadequate traffic speed is higher costs for the health system and society at large. About time to make a “behavioral turn” in traffic speed.

Posted on

freight transport

The transport of goods is an important and crucial economic sector to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions. According to statistics from Eurostat Total Road Freight Transportation increased by an annual 0.6% percent between 2019 and 2023. Considering the slack during the Covid-19 economic restrictions this is a remarkable development. Most people agree that more freight on rail could allow a much better performance concerning CO2 emissions. This needs substantial investments in infrastructure and intelligent solutions for optimised and accessible freight loading points. The logistics of the last mile for delivery has found many innovative solutions with battery-supported e-vehicles. The tough issue seems to be the production of e-lorries at competitive prices to the Diesel-engines. Considering the legal obligations to take breaks to ensure sufficient concentration of lorry drivers, the battery charging infrastructure has to be planned accordingly. Ports and airports a certainly key infrastructure for freight transport as well. Industry has additional key locations with high freight frequencies and tonne-kilometres. Eurostat data show that EU-wide empty running vehicles account for about 22%. Scope for optimization is, therefore, a continuous challenge for the sector.
E-transportation is high on the agenda in the sector and production of e-lorries a big challenge. There a many positive signs that the sector has taken up the challenge as there are an estimated 100.000 € per year cost advantage of battery-driven lorries compared to traditional ones (Le Monde 2024-9-24 p.16). This is simply a long-term survival issue for the sector. Smart transport solutions add to the productivity potential of the sector in combination with electrification.

Posted on

Buzzing free

It is always a chance to be in a city that bans cars for some time from streets and bicycles and pedestrians can walk freely in the city. On September 22nd 2024 this is the case in Brussels. In addition, the public transport system allows people to buzz around the city free of charge. Of course this is an invitation to get to know areas of the city where you normally don’t take the time to visit or mix with people. The police used the time to teach children how to cycle in a city in all security and respecting basic rules despite the enthusiasm for speed or going round in circles. Unfortunately, this happens only one Sunday out of 52 in a year. It is just amazing how the feeling of safety on the road changes again. The level of noise and pollution drops to levels of the countryside. Buses and trams pass the city easily and most people get around faster than they do on other days of the year. It is a bit like a coordinated health intervention for the stressed urban survivors. This experience is a modest reminder of how nice it was in Paris during the Olympic Games 2024 when prioritizing mobility beyond cars haa been effectively implemented for several weeks.

Posted on

Sufficient

What do we mean by sufficient? Sufficient of what? French philosophers currently debate the topic under the French notion of sobriété (sobriety). They give as English translation sufficiency, but the notions do not match exactly in the usual understanding of the words. In breaking with the economic rationale of more is always better, the idea of having sufficient food, room to live in or social contacts to not feel lonely, the notion of sufficiency hints towards a rethinking of our customary lifestyles. How many trousers are sufficient? Well, as with shoes there might be gender differences or more generally interpersonal differences or preferences to come to the conclusion of how many is sufficient. If we bring in the notion of sobriety in additional, we allow another social and/or ecological dimension. This may redefine what is sufficient based on judgments how much our planet can handle (emissions) and distributional judgments. The western lifestyle of the last 100 years is no role model for other countries to follow. It is urgent to rethink our growth based economic model to develop new socially viable ways of production and consumption. It seems to be a necessary condition to reconsider the notion of wellbeing and wealth from a sufficiency perspective. It is a sobering thought, isn‘t it?

Posted on

Wave Length

The links between art and science are manifold and run in both directions. Artists challenge science or the outcomes of science and scientist refer to or maybe inspired by the work of artists. If artists challenge scientists by proposing an alternative theory they become subject to empirical scrunity like the unfortunate fate of the theory of colors of J.W. Goethe. The physics of colors has long been established and the theory of colors and light are best represented in science using wave lengths as the unit of measuring different colors. Hence, in this theory of colors or light the spectrum of colors runs from violet, dark blue, indigo (short wave lengths) passing yellow (medium wave length) to orange and red (longest wave lengths).
The painter Ellsworth Kelly has also challenged the science-based view of colors in “Spectrum IX” from 2014 currently part of the exhibition “Ellsworth Kelly. Formes et couleurs, 1949-2015” at the Fondation Louis Vuitton in Paris (extract of image below). As a provocation to the scientifically trained vision Spectrum IX breaks up the running from short to long wave length to take the scientific linear colors of the spectrum and split the spectrum in the middle (yellow) and join the ends upside down. Alternatively, take the spectrum and glue both ends of the color spectrum together to a circle and cut in the middle of yellow to form again a seemingly linear evolution of colors.
Now, let’s meditate in front of this new spectrum of colors and follow your senses. The challenge of the theory of colors is a provocative statement of all those imaginative potentials we exclude through a solely science-based view of colors. Art opens up virtual space and fills it sometimes with abstract reflections on colors. It is raising the question of beauty versus science, beauty in science or beauty through science. (Image: Ellsworth Kelly. Spectrum IX in exhibition Formes et couleurs, 1949-2015″)

Posted on

Phase Shifting

The Berlin “Hamburger Bahnhof Nationalgalerie der Gegenwart” recently acquired “Phase Shifting Index” by Jeremy Shaw. As part of an exhibition of new acquisitions, Sam Bardaouil, the director of the museum and curator of this exhibition has installed the large-scale video and sound installation at the end of the long corridor of the “Rieckhallen”. The impressive, even overwhelming art work was created in 2020. It was first shown at the Centre Pompidou in Paris.
The piece consists of seven large suspended screensand creates a space like in dance club, discotheque or dance studio. The visual and sound experience is allmost psychedelic. The near obsessional dancing shown on the screens represent different periods of dancing with their particular patterns of movements and choreographies. The phase of the electromagnetic waves is shifting from one screen to the other and towards the end of the performances it becomes clear, that they all follow a similar wave or rave pattern. Sublimation or ecstasy are the underlying index-like common traits. Each period or decade 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, all had their peculiar dance and movement patterns. The video-installation is like a history of art of expression through body movement, amplified and indexed through rhythm and sound.
Electromagnetic waves can be characterized through wave shifting in various forms. This work gives us a feeling for the fascination of movement and phase shifting emotions. Don’t worry, the immersion ends after 10+ minutes and, if you like, you might read up on the physics of electromagnetic waves and phase shifting to calm you down.
Images: “Phase Shifting Index” by Jeremy Shaw, 2020, Berlin, Hamburger Bahnhof, 2024-9