Category: economics

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All electric again

The “all electric society” has been identified by Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber (2025 p.48) as one of the underlying driving forces of “The real China Model”. Despite the heavy reliance and pollution caused by China’s use of coal, the large share of electricity  (30%) of energy use is unmatched by the rest of the world except Japan. Investment in electricity grids and innovative ways of mobility around electricity will allow China to buzz rather than steam ahead. Solar cells, batteries for electricity storage and innovative ways of distribution of electricity through AI enhanced “learning” devices will widen the gap between China and other countries that suffer from inefficient path dependency.
Taking the advent of the “All electric society” seriously will free resources through the focus on future-proof technologies. We should not be afraid of the sparks of a short-circuited “All electric society”, the environmental challenges ahead for all of us, particularly China, ask to shift to high voltage solutions urgently. 

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Political Economy 2025

As the global markets have moved from an international economic system based on competition to a world of protectionism based on arbitrary tariffs and restrictions, it feels strange to spot banners in Brussels in 2025-10 entitled “Competitive Europe Summit”. Participants at the conference appear to be “barking up the wrong tree”. In industries, and even more so in most services, access to markets is the necessary condition to embark on competition. No access, no competition. Tariffs or taxes are created to stifle competition.
All this has multiple reasons. One reason is to create an equal playing field among countries. Previously, we thought exchange rates of currencies and eventually purchasing power parities would shift following changes in competitiveness. This mainstream economic thinking has been disrupted through Putin’s war on Ukraine territory. The MAGA political economy narrative has impacted the competition between countries as well, (1) with its rhetoric and (2) back and forth changes in tariffs. Competition with countries which do not respect basic principles of fairness in competition can no longer be confronted with a mantra of a “competitive Europe”.
A more unified Europe could deal with the “politico-economic” fact that the global economy is much less concerned with the idea of competitiveness than in the last few decades of the last millennium (70s, 80s, 90s). Powerplay between nations maybe regarded as a kind of competition for dominance, but a sole focus on economic competition is grossly misleading nowadays after 3 years of the Russian aggression, at least with a focus on the short and middle distance run.

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Marc Aurel Book 11

Throughout the Meditations, Marc Aurel concerns himself with the idea and importance of the common good. Based on his experience as Consul and Roman Emperor, the common good is of primary concern. At least in his thinking and writing these concerns play a very prominent role just like the “social“. In order to ensure his own successor, as described by Katherine Kennedy (2020 through www.classicalwisdom.com) he was only the 2nd Roman Emperor  to appoint a biological heir as his successor, which met a lot of criticism already at that time. Nevertheless, in his philosophical thinking and leadership guidelines he cherished the common good above all. “Have I done something for the common good? Then I too have benefited. Have this thought always ready to hand: and no stopping.” (Book 11 paragraph 4, Penguin Classics edition). This is in contrast to the predominant utilitarian thoughts many centuries later where the pursuit of your own benefit will further the benefit for society. The reversal of the logical sequence in later thoughts is particularly remarkable as well. The process of individualisation seems to be another additional factor in the lack of concern for the common good in the 21st century. Raising the awareness to further the common good is a continued challenged in most societies.

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Former Crypto currency

The rationale behind a Crypto currency is quite an ancient idea. In the absence of a central bank or in addition to it, people may choose to establish their own currency or currencies. The central idea is to secure assets (currently and in the future) as well as to enable an exchange between a community of people. The Museum of the National Bank of Belgium (image below) has a “Yap stone” on display which originates from the Pacific Yap Islands. Even very heavy and big stones served as wealth storage. The idealistic value of a particular stone conveyed additional value. In the true value of the word these people were banking on stone money in a way not to distant from what Crypto currency embodies today.

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AI in Central Banks

Yes of course, Central Banks will use AI, and some do so already (Kazinnik and Brynjolfsson, 2025). Beyond the standard application of AI by its employees, there are many potentials to use AI to analyse and publish data at a faster rate or in order to detect financial crimes. Similarly, data collection based on webpage harvesting might yield new indicators of inflation, expenditure for environmental risks (heat waves, flooding etc.) earlier and in addition to the normal set of indicators. Hence, Central banks might be better and faster in forecasting inflationary tendencies using more AI tools in their daily routines. Of course, it is difficult to predict a disruptive tariffs policy of a major economic player in the world economy, but the calculation of more, even hallucinatory scenarios become more feasible. It is feasible to weigh overall risks of different scenarios to the economy.
(Image: Celtic coins, Museum of the Belgian National Bank)

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AI earnings effects

In the first few years of wider adoption of AI in an economy, there is the expectation that this might lead to substantial productivity gains for enterprises which use it as well as for employees who are early adopters of the relatively new technology. The study by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by  Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025) showed that so far there are no significant earnings effects for employees. Based on millions of recent payroll data from US companies productivity gains have not trickled through to the paycheck in terms of monthly salaries. Participation of staff in a company’s overall turnover or profit might change this as time evolves. For civil servants the adoption of AI might mean increases in cases dealt with as some tasks can be executes faster than before with the use of AI.
The evidence points to employment effects of AI rather than earnings effects so far. A hypothesis is yet unresolved: senior employees using AI might employ fewer junior workers at entry positions, if these “hallucinating” young professionals can be replaced by hallucinating AI. In science the hallucination has sometimes lead to disruptive new approaches and findings. It is a tough choice to pick the young entrants with high productivity potential and eventually high remuneration for this in terms of labor earnings.

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AI employment effects

The first robust empirical evidence about employment effects of AI in the USA has been published by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by  Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025). A previous paper by Wang and Wang (2025) highlighted the comparative advantage of persons who use AI in their work compared to others and the authors coined the term “learning by using technology”.  The prediction of the model was that there might be job losses of more than 20% in the long run and half of this already in the first 5 years of the introduction of the technology. The Stanford economists have estimated with real world data these effects in the USA and find quite surprisingly that the negative employment effects of AI have the strongest impact on young labor market entrants with few years of labor market experience. Middle-aged and more senior employees seem to benefit from “tacit knowledge” about the work, which is more difficult to replace with AI, at least for the time being of the early days of AI. This evidence is based on recent payroll data from the largest payroll processing firm “ADP” in the USA which has firms overrepresented from the manufacturing and services industries as reported in another paper  (Firm size maybe another source of bias).  However, the effect that youth 22-25 years of age suffered the most calls into question the common belief that older workers are more likely to suffer the consequences as during in the rise of the digital economy around the year 2000. (AI Image created with Canva)

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Vacation or Workation

Vacation or Workation, that is the question. Remote work and outsourcing of work have  created the opportunity for more people to work from distant places. Logging into the firm’s or the administration’s secured intranet enabled to work from where you prefer to work rather than on the premises of the firm. After the technological shift to enable secure remote work, the acceptability of remote work is a societal issue. Whereas bosses worked or had to work while on travel for many decades, the same has become feasible due to reduced costs for many other employees as well. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced another shift in the need to accept and advance remote work as well. Taken together the option of a “workation” instead of a vacation became equally more feasible. The borderline between remote work, “workation” and vacation has become more and more blurred. It remains to be seen, whether these options enhance an outsourcing trend by firms or whether  more “back-sourcing” or “in-sourcing” will be the consequence.
Employers with their associations and employees with their trade union representatives have a need to include such topics in their bargaining agenda in addition to pay, health and safety, as well as working time adaptations.
(Image created with Canva 2025-9)

 

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Vacation money

The budget for a vacation, depending on your destination, is subject to exchange rate adjustments. If there are several months between planning and traveling the exchange rate like between the US $ and the Euro € has fluctuated recently by 10% in favor of the €uro. Nice for those receiving salaries in € and who spend their vacation in a region using the US $ as main payment currency. International tourists frequently calculate in $ and therefore might find Europe a bit more expensive than before the return of Donald Trump in the USA.
However, for all those who live in the Member States of the Euro-area and take their vacation there as well, they no longer think in exchange rate risks to their vacation budget. Additionally, there are almost no risks to be subject to fake money transactions like in unfamiliar currencies.
In the Euro area we can use for example backlight to make sure a 50€ bank note is a real one. Happy vacation! 

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Home for dog

The places where some dogs live can be rather big. But even tiny dogs may enjoy a luxury home like their owners. This was certainly the case for the dog’s niche in a Paris home, a few years before the French revolution (1785). The exhibit is a testimony of the tough inequality of the late 18th century in Paris, where some enjoyed far reaching luxury and large parts of the population were forced to live in poverty within Paris or the suburbs with little access to basic sanitary facilities. The discrepancy between the luxurious homes of pets and the average person might serve as an indicator for income and health inequality. The Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet has a great stock of artifacts that can speak to the issue. Image: Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet dog niche 1785).