Category: Zukunft

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Green trade flows

The statistics on trade flows reported by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs have a comprehensive data base in the background. The descriptive inspection of the raw data on trade flows comprising solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles shows a stark imbalance of how future-proof the trade between countries is. The New York Times (David Gelles et al. 2025-6-30) has put this information into an impressive graphical design to show the magnitude of the imbalance of how China trades in green products with the world and how the USA is losing out on future-proof low carbon emission trade. Despite the fact that China is still heavily emitting CO2 today due to burning coal for electrical power, the investments at home and trade with the world is moving into the opposite direction. We have seen many of these industries at risk in Europe, like solar panel production, batteries and increasingly electric vehicles, without the western countries getting organized to address crucial business and economic challenges. Falling behind in these industries and trade will shift global balances in the near future. Renovation through innovation is more promising than holding on for another decade to inefficient and more polluting energy sources. Repairs of homes and buildings have long lasting effects, which we can, nevertheless, change today.

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Pervasive waste

From time to time waste from so-called highly developed countries is making headlines and then it is forgotten again. Huge amounts of plastic waste gets shipped for example from the USA to Malaysia in containers regularly (NYT 2025-7-1). The dumping of waste in other countries where it is cheaper to waste the waste is a cynical practice. Not only is the potential for reuse and a circular economy disregard, the little control that is exercised how the waste is treated afterwards is neglected. Some might just end up in our oceans later on or find its way in our food chains. The recent discovery of lots of nuclear waste at 5000 m depth in the sea in another extreme example of this practice to dump waste affecting all of is when profits have been accumulated inn the hands of a few enterprises and states. Such external effects as they are called in economic theory are part of the standard economic thinking. The challenge is to detect such behavior, persecute or better prevent it. This calls on countries who produce the waste to check for the contamination potential and treat their own waste. Fukushima has lots of barrels of nuclear waste waiting. The pervasive nature of this waste will make it last for thousands of years. “Beggar thy neighbor” with your waste is a major default of our current economic and social model. It remains an unresolved puzzle why mankind continues to work towards its own extinction. (Image: Le grisou, Constantin Meunier, MRBAB, Brussels). 

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Energetic Architecture

The link between energy and architecture is all to obvious. For at least a century we believed that energy had to serve architecture and could be relegated to second place. With global warming the overriding importance sits with energy concerns for some years to come. We spend billions to repair the bad architectural and fast growth architecture of the post 2WW era of architecture, especially the construction boom of the 60s and 70s. The driver of change in architecture has moved from the period of social architecture (60s, 70s) to energetic architecture. Energy in architecture has multiple dimensions. Whereas a century ago the shift consisted in the installation of central heating systems in the northern hemisphere of the globe at scale, in the 21st century the concern there shifts to isolation from heat (and cold) to more efficient, less polluting energy provision. Cooling houses and office spaces during extended periods and higher peeks of heat, ask for substantial revisions of existent architecture and the next generation of energetic architecture. Before long, we shall also think more seriously about the handling of water in architecture, a topic which is closely linked to energy consumption and design.
From a sociological point of view we are used to ask questions of social inequality related to this issue as well. We are on the way to move into a society of energy-rich versus energy poor households and enterprises. Financing of adaptations of housing and offices to the energetic challenges is likely to create severe additional inequalities, which exacerbate the already existing ones. If you have no money to spare, you will be unable to invest into energy savings with more distant returns on investment (ROI). At older age you are less resistant to heat waves and causes health disadvantages. If previous investments were impossible or the urgency for energetic architecture was neglected for too long, additional health inequalities shall arise.
The “Deutsches Architekturmuseum” has built an exhibition around this theme, which widens the perspective of architecture and energy. This highlights the additional concern for energetic architecture and people living or working in (modern) architecture.
(Image Trier Roman arena 2025)

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Global warming

The annual update of the global warming indicators (source: Earth system science data 2025-6) gives more reasons to worry about the future of our climate. The objective to limit global warming to +1.5°C, established at the Paris climate agreement in 2015, is no longer achievable. This is the hard evidence based on the global network of scientific data collections and their projections. Fossil fuels are a major cause, deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions as well (Forster et al. 2025). As a consequence, human-induced warming of average surface temperatures and flows of heat into oceans continue. The first consequences, we witness in many parts of the world already. France is particularly affected (Le Monde 2025-6-20, p.7). What used to be called “natural disasters” is better described as long-term consequences of human-induced global changes like global warming. About time to take our CO2 footprint even more seriously. The “All electric society” can reduce reliance on fossil fuels considerably, as of now.

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Warming continues

The global warming continues to change our landscapes. Heat waves, droughts and flooding become more often. Average temperatures keep rising. The evidence from meteorological data is showing this beyond doubt. Our forest take the toll and reports document the worsening situation for many trees (Germany and Switzerland). An adaptation will take years if not decades. In the region around Paris some home owners have started or been forced to adapt their gardens to the warming weather conditions. Trees that do not support the consequences of warming die and we witness the changing of the landscape. Palm trees near Paris have survive for years by now near Paris and can grow rather tall.
Like it or not, the visual landscape will change despite the many great initiatives launched by the city of Paris to stop the warming of the city.

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Robot repairs

Robots have been used mostly in industry for assembling, transport or sorting tasks. There is also a role in disassembling to enhance circularity. To repair electric or mechanic devices there is an enhanced version needed which starts with a diagnosis of the problem. Algorithms can sort out promising from dead end routes of repairs. However, the recognition of objects into things that can be repaired and those without repair potential is a worthwhile assistance. Beyond the economic and ecological rationale for repairs, there is an emotional or nostalgic sense to it as well. Maybe, from a life course perspective any object related to the teenager years of a person qualify for nostalgic value. Even simple robots or AI-assisted objects may qualify for this in future. Artificial friends will be like tamagotchis in need of repairs.

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Dream together

„Dream together“ is the title of the exhibition of Yoko Ono at the „Neue Nationalgalerie“ in Berlin 2025. The title is an invitation or even an incitement to dream jointly with others. We need to dream of peace on all sides or parties in a war. Start with the dream and then move on to working together on it. The participatory art projects of Yoko Ono are a recurring event in Berlin and at the Neue Nationalgalerie (Cut piece). The installation „Wish Tree for Berlin“ in front of the gallery is popular with visitors who leave hundreds of written wishes to the windy spring days. Origami folding, stone assembling or a simultaneous chessboard playing with all white pieces and fields encourage to imagine a world differently, beyond the treaded belligerent paths. For more inspiration and imagination just continue to the Martin Gropiusbau for more artworks from Ono or just watch the clouds pass by changing the lighting of the olive tree carrying lots of wishes.

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Permanently anxious

„There’s a set of forces that want us to be permanently anxious“, is the phrase chosen by Tony Cokes in the exhibit just outside the „Palais Populaire“ in Berlin in 2025-5. International politics and the economic upheaval caused by Trump’s tariffs contribute to the already existing other sources of anxiety like nuclear energy and warfare. Global warming causing more extreme weather events add more man-made reasons for anxiety. The next generations will have to foot the bills we have left to them unpaid. Our current shortsightedness increases anxieties which previous generations have not known of a similar kind or in that combination. 

Community building and solidarity are ways to overcome such overwhelming anxieties. Supranational organizations like the European Union have an even stronger role to play to reassure its people with credible signs of solidarity. We are not alone in the struggle to overcome the anxiety that is creeping up around us. We are certainly stronger together than individually dealing with unspecified fears. „We shall overcome …“

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War of drones

The use of drones in warfare is not new in 2025. However, the news reported in the WSJ 2025-05-05 that sea drones from Ukraine with U.S. adapted missiles downed 2 Russian jet fighters made headlines. Compared to jet fighters such drones carrying missiles are a rather cost-effective alternative in warfare. The speed of jets compared to drones made such successful attempts rather unlikely. The information that infrared technology can achieve such identification of targets and guiding missiles is another innovation of the Ukrainian military technology.
Technology is well known to be a game changer in warfare for centuries or across the whole military history. Adaptations of defense strategies will allow Ukraine to hold against the Russian aggression albeit limited financial resources. The defense of air space is one of the crucial elements for Ukraine to deter Russia from moving further ahead through the continuation to increase the costs of war to Russia.
Following a fast moving object and transforming it into a target is an astonishing accomplishment.

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Sun power

Statistics of hours of sunshine in Germany and many European countries show an extraordinary amount of sunny days in March 2025 compared to previous years. This opens up a window of opportunity to produce electricity already in a month previously less likely to yield a lot of energy. With more likely 8 months of decent electricity production the efficiency of investments in solar energy reach break even points earlier. Time to think of expanding the share of renewable energy even further. The cost effectiveness is improving in rather unpredictable ways. Economists, of course, consider opportunity costs in this case the alternative to use oil or gas despite the higher levels of CO2 emissions. As the prices are currently lower as well, without an easily predictable trend, solar alternatives are a valid option.