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Unwinding USA

Stock markets move largely due to expectations. Therefore, the mixing of economics and politics can create lots of signals, which are likely to raise price expectations. Inflationary pressures will call for central banks to increase interest rates which will reduce economic activities that are largely financed through the credit market.
The unwinding of the economy reduces turnover and most likely also profits of companies. The fate of Tesla cars in the last 2 months (Link) and the stock market value of Tesla shares (Link) have plummeted. The unwinding of shareholder value and inflation on the rise as well are a the effects of the MAGA narrative and Musk‘s appointment in politics as chief of GOPE.
The „home made recession“ in the US and the choice to prioritize own products might work in the long run, but the costs of the short-term induced inflation will affect vulnerable consumers more than the people who buy many products that show few price increases. The unwinding of the economy of the USA is likely to cause shock waves rippling through the global economy.
Image: Prices to charge e-cars with solar energy in Germany according to sunshine.

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Corruption Caught

In fraud or corruption it is primordial that the probability to be caught is very high to deter potential fraudulent activity. The new Trump administration has enacted as one of the first executive orders that the FCPA stops to take on new cases of suspected corruption as well as reconsider some of the running procedures. In the same vein, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) has been silenced so that American companies to not have to disclose ownership information that fall under the CTA until 2025-3-21 until a major reform will be published.
These policy shifts concern more than just US citizens. The competition between countries will be effected because as companies trading with the US which used US bank accounts were also liable under this legislation and subject to prosecution. The FCPA has been an important example for other countries to follow at least within the Member countries of the OECD. The shift in priorities of the Trump administration might open doors again to corruption which we believed were shut with lasting effect.
In conjunction with the rapid increase in military spending when the capacity for the production of military equipment is slow to increase might increase the risks of corruption talking hold again. Market economies build on fair competition, but less prosecution of corruption introduces a bias into negotiations which works against innovation and competitiveness. We have a hard time to understand any kind of logic in such economic and legal strategies.
Image: Bridge collapsed due ro material defects. Archive Berlin Tempelhof Schöneberg.

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Berlin Mind

For a long time now, I have been asking myself the question: What is like to be in a „Berlin state of mind“. The exhibition of the 2 photographers of the Berlin Landesarchiv as part of the Berlin activities of the EMOP contributed to understanding and more precise description of the „Berlin state of mind“. As we shall celebrate in 2025 the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Europe, Germany and Berlin from Nazi rule and terror, we have seen endless reconstruction and reshaping of the city. The ever growing need for housing and space-grabbing office buildings bring about a permanent feeling of change, of becoming, of under construction. The years of the separated city as well as the building and taking down of the Berlin wall created many new opportunities for developers of the city and its structure of quarters, arrondisements or „Bezirke“ and „Kieze“ within the districts. 

Due to the continuous urban renewal also of basic infrastructure Berliners have the impression that there is construction work all around us all the time. With the abundant construction works come the construction fences. They too have changed. Some fences show digital prints of virtual worlds of the Berlin living in some future time. However, the promises often mask the reality that fences will be replaced by concrete walls and inaccessible buildings for most people of the neighborhood as gated business space or city blocks grab the space to form and reform the metropolitan landscape. The construction fences themselves become the contested areas where different strata of society interact or intersect. The „Berlin state of mind“ is one of becoming. Longing to become something else, something aware of the overwhelming historical duties, but still rising from the ashes. The experience to see a wall come down between cold war enemies liberates a belief that we can overcome frontiers. However, this in-between state of mind has brought us multiple fences of all sorts. Construction fences are only the most visible ones that surround the many spaces under construction. In the imagery of Berliners and visitors beyond the wall, fences are continuously on our minds in the „Berlin state of mind“.

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Digital Visions

Urban planning has been digitalized for a long time. 3D modeling of places and buildings including their interiors are state of the art. As urbanization is also about investment, speculation and anticipation, digital imaging has entered the public spheres in form of cover up of building sites behind fences and in form of large digital prints for information, curiosity and advertising purposes. The inner cities are frequently an avantgarde and microcosm of societal developments. Some dream of full or total flexibility for office spaces (see image below), others experience the inner cities as the spotlight of inequality in society. The best paid executives are catered for by the worst paid delivery personnel. The photographers of the Landesarchiv Berlin, Grönboldt and Wunstorf, brought together a documentary exhibition entitled „Pixel aus Beton“, pixel made of concrete.

With a bird‘s eye view they reveal past, present and future details of how Berlin is experienced and envisioned by investors, architects and people living through the seemingly endless construction going on in the city. The keywords list as part of the exhibition creates a link to scientific literature and to the TU Center for Metropolitan Studies. Photography and even more so digital photography offers a social science perspective to the digital images exhibited. Cities are data spinning areas and a formidable place for digital visuals and visions.

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Suicide Prevention

The annual mortality statistics and special reports on suicidal tendencies are a tough reading. OECD Statistics give a at least an approximate, comparative perspective. Reporting routines and medical confirmation of a suicide or suicidal behavior still vary quite a bit between countries. Nevertheless, the usually reported incidents per 100.000 persons remain rather abstract.
Absolute numbers speak a clear language. For example in Germany there were about 10.300 recorded suicides in 2023, France had to mourn about 9200 in 2022. To put the size of the problem in perspective it is helpful to know that in Germany all other not aging related causes of death like traffic accidents, drugs or murder make up for around 7.000 deaths per year. The targeting of resources and prevention efforts on these vulnerable people seems inevitable. However, we see only limited additional efforts to curb the problem.
A more detailed analysis of the frequencies reveals the gender and age differences. More men commit suicides and older (very old) people have higher risks. The oldest age group of men is most at risk.
Since the Covid-19 pandemic young women show rising trends in many countries again of suicidal attempts and self-inflicted wounds. Despite a continuing effort of research (Links) there is no single cause to explain the occurrences.
As a working hypothesis, which awaits empirical tests, I would look into societal factors that stigmatize persons who are made to believe or feel like they are beyond the normal spectrum of society. The lack of acceptance of diversity concerning gender, age, ethnicity, body shapes or mental states like anxiety. Poverty might cause immense distress and suffering. Large shifts in wealth in both directions cause additional risks.
It seems as if our minds and society are constantly in a kind of „regression towards the mean“ posing challenges to those furthest away from the average or perceived norms. Percentile ranks or percentile scores are commonly used to express a person’s position in a frequency distribution. For example you are better/lower than 90% of persons of your age group. Such statements might cause further distress for persons. However, summarising across several (psychological) measurements, they may yield encouraging indications as well. Actual and perceived positions in such percentile ranks add another “social risk” as perceived positions may govern behavior.

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Betrayal Politics

Most economists would hold that in free market economics there is no room for moral statements. Betrayal, therefore, is left out of most standard text book economics courses. However, more advanced courses that include strategies based on so-called “game theory”, where actors may breach prior commitments, betrayal has entered economic science. A “tit-for-tat” strategy is frequently the best “game-theoretic” solution to such strategic behavior to deter also repetition of defecting on agreed rules or bargaining outcomes. For real world applications beyond the simple strategic advice, the maths involved are quite challenging. We’ll check soon, how AI is changing that game.
Another popular economic theory is one of “gift exchange”. You gift a sum of money (or weapons for self-defense to a country) with no explicit consent that the money should be repaid (through rare earths) in peace time. A betrayal occurs, if a country suddenly asks things in return for the previous gifts. For politicians that understand themselves as “market marker” and “deal maker”, there will be a tendency to claim back a gift in order to come to some kind of gift exchange rather than an altruistic donation.
William A. Galston wrote in the WSJ (2025-2-26) naming the US political action of the 2nd Trump administration a “betrayal of Ukraine and American values”.
If free markets mean making ruthless use of “tit for no possible tat” and “gifts are always a gift exchange”, we move back to mercantile and medieval practices, where settles could claim land at gun point.
What way out of this? Adam Smith, champion of classical economics, wrote before his famous book on “The Wealth of Nations” a lesser known, precursor book on “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”. Actually, he was convinced that the one would not work without the other.
Maybe, going back to classical economics is much better than a Trump administration version of neo-classical economics in a new era of political economy 3.0.

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Top 5 Things T5T

Dealing with Elon Musk is a must these days (WSJ 2025-2-26 A4).
So it happened that on his way to Mars, Musk met God the almighty on his way back to heaven. Musk asked, whether he could join the ride.
God, not amused, asked Musk about his T5T (top 5 things) he accomplished in his life. Musk questioned God‘s right to ask this question and said he would tell the other T about this. God gave him just another day to come up with a response.
So here we are: the T5T Elon Musk might put forward:
(1) I created a million fancy electric cars.
God: Well, but there were already too many tin boxes on 4 wheels on earth.
(2) I created rockets that propelled billionaires into space and back again.
God: Your carbon footprint has exceeded a million people of the poorest countries on earth.
(3) I created a network of satellites that facilitated communication.
God: Nobody spoke to me yet using it.
(4) I bought Twitter and transformed the platform to spread evangelism of various sorts.
God: This has become a hoax spreading more lies than truth.
(5) I reformed the public sector employees to share my beliefs or leave.
God: This will ruin a lot of services like USAID, which have assisted me for many years in my caring and charitable service.
With all these T5T of yours in mind I am not sure I should let you return to that planet earth. Maybe I‘ll find another assignment for you where you can cause less harm Elon. Maybe, try “Waiting for Godot“.
(Image: instead of T5T try T4T (tea for two))

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Insecurity Council

The UN Security Council has been turned into the Insecurity Council. The UN Plenary Session voted with a 2/3 majority on 2025-2-24 the draft Resolution L.10 stating: “Three years after the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the General Assembly today adopted two resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity …”. As part of this resolution the UN General Assembly claims “accountability for the most serious crimes under international law committed on the territory of Ukraine …”.
The UN Insecurity Council (15 Members, China, USA Russia, F, UK as permanent Members) adopted  almost in parallel with 10 votes in favor and 5 abstentions (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, United Kingdom) resolution 2774 (2025) calling for a swift end to conflict. The most notable change in international politics is the changed voting behavior of the USA, which has retreated from an outspoken condemnation of Russia as aggressor and occupant of foreign territory.
The “revealing of masks” in what appears to be a neo-imperialist period of time has come. The set-up of the post  1945 UN institution of the Security Council has lost a major function to prevent armed conflicts and early reaction potential. The force to aim for and guarantee international peace lies much more in the hand of the plenary of the UN rather than the small select Security Council dominated by previous superpowers largely due to their possession of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
The voting of a resolution by the Insecurity Council, which is in contradiction with a resolution of the UN General Assembly concerning the spirit, if not the words, is a source of insecurity itself. A reform of the UN system, which risks to become a “shopping system” of lenient organizations, where you join and leave the organization (UNESCO, WHO, WTO …) will loose impact.
For many people and countries, the only hope for a guarantee of human rights lies with the United Nations Human Rights Charter, peace keeping missions and International Courts. The UN Security Council as an Insecurity Council is likely to let down many people truly seeking a peaceful life.
(Image: The Fall of Icarus, Pablo Picasso, at HQ UNESCO, Paris)

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Election Participation Bundestag

The election of the German Bundestag 2025-2-23 has brought about many changes to the 1st chamber, the national parliament. First the voting system had changed to limit the newly elected parliament to 630 seats for a total of about 60 million people entitled to vote. 50 million voted in the election. The national average of participation in the election reached a very high 82.5%, with a range from 73.5% to 88%. Overall, it has been the highest participation rate since reunification. Political parties have to pass a barrier of 5% to be eligible for seats in the Bundestag. This regulation had been installed to avoid too many small parties to enter the Parliament as coalition building could be rather difficult and lengthy.
2 political parties missed this barrier closely, one with 4,3 % and another one with 4,97% of votes in the so-called 2nd vote, which is the vote for proportional representation in parliament after which the seats are allocated. Adding those ballots casts together, this means that for these 2 parties about 4.5 million votes do not get any representation at the national level. Several other smaller parties add more than 1 million votes, which are finally without any national representation. However, the only regionally campaigning conservative party from Bavaria reached 3 million votes (6% of votes) on the national level, which gives them a representation of 44 seats in the Bundestag.
Participation across age groups follows a relatively constant pattern. Older votes 60+ have relatively high voter turnout, whereas the younger age groups do not use the chance to vote as much as other age groups. This remains a challenge for democratic representation. The youngest have the longest time spell to live with the consequences of democratic representation and resulting policies. There are useful debates to lower the current legal age (18) to 16 years of age for voting to soften the effects of aging societies voting. Children, or currently anybody under 18, have no impact on political representation. An overweighting of families with children might fix such deficits. If the number of children drops further, we might eventually be willing to give our future a stronger voice in political elections. (Image: empty Berlin playground 2025)

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More BRICS

The move towards a multipolar world order is in full swing. With the USA retreating from a primordial international role discarding UN institutions and the defense of major elements in the fight for individual freedom, the diplomatic order of the last 80 years has changed. The liberation of the concentration camps in Germany and the 80 years of the end of the 2nd World War on 1945-5-9 had forged an alliance in which the common enemy was defeated and the the next major confrontation in Europe or on the globe had to be warded against. 

The evolution of peace in Europe has been marked by the Cold War and a bipolar world order which confronted the USA and Russia at various places. The rollback of Russia has seen its high time with the Northern and Eastern extension of the EU and NATO. This goal of US strategic interests has been largely accomplished. 

In the shadow of this bipolar relationship the BRICS have moved towards greater economic power and therefore influence in the international arena. Economic data on the biggest economies in the world over the last years show the rise of the BRICS, bit mainly China and India. Their population sizes create enormous and largely shut off internal markets. All these developments create new challenges to the previously relatively stable world order. Technological advances have been narrowing more rapidly than before since the access to the best available knowledge spreads fast and more equally across the globe through the internet. 

The ugly face pf imperialism is returning front stage and attempts to change the previous versions of imperialism into a new hegemonic world oder. Updated views of economic power and influence zones let us look with a rational perspective on the new power play. Due to the containment of Russian influence, the USA has China as the major power to confront, a major shift as of the 2020s. The China-driven Silk road project with strategic landing points across the globe has „trumped“ American efforts to align BRICS to human rights values over the last decades. European diplomacy will have to recognize that we entered another phase of „Realpolitik“ due to major economic shifts over several decades. (Image: extract from Max Klinger, The walkers, ambush, 1878 in Berlin SPK).