Category: behavioral

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Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).

 

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Deus DEI

In Latin the declination of deus = god starts with the genitive form “dei”. In the world of universities and labor markets the abbreviation “DEI” stands for diversity, equity and inclusion. These 3 topics have ensured for years that a university campus looks a bit more like society at large, even if biased towards younger generations. The MAGA saga of the USA in 2025 starts to turn the clock back on hard to accomplish advances in DEI-hiring and promotion. This likely to reduce the number of international students on US campuses and will make campuses look WEIRD again. Moreover, lots of talented students will seek DEI campuses in other countries to avoid discriminatory hiring practices and arbitrary risk of visa denial.  Europe is likely to benefit from this kind of brain drain and skill shortages might be substantially reduced due to such unprecedented shifts in US policies. The cuts of billions of grants to renowned universities for political reasons will leave a yawning gap of talent in the US in a few years time, the latest. Early movers will move very quickly to anticipate the exodus of talent.  It is puzzling to watch how quickly years of DEI policies might be undone with thousands of people and projects at a loss. Scholars of American history are reminded of the McCarthy era of political prosecution or the dismal period for science under the Nazi-rule in Germany. Americans seem to get much worse and extreme policies than they thought they voted for. “Deus Dei” also means “god of god” and in the current American political context the judgement of a god by another god has maybe a historical meaning. In the table of the Estonian town hall in Tallinn the inscription alerts rulers to beware of being judged as well. Sounds like a timely reminder to overly ambitious politicians.

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Warming consequences

The live of honey bees is rather busy and well organized. Global warming necessitates new risks and new opportunities for honey bees. The flowering season starts earlier in Europe and bees start earlier ro their collection of nectar and their service of pollination to other flowers. In early April 2025 in France near Paris we observe wild bees already in their daily routine. However, the risk of cold nights is still there, albeit those building their homes below the surface are a bit less at risk during a frosty night. Seeking a clever shelter is a good strategy for survival particularly at times of global warming. Some kinds of wild bees seem to sense this already changing homes from one season to next one. Humans remain their toughest enemies as they restrict their choices quite severely. Man-made pollution and herbicides are beyond bees’ control and cause havoc in the ecosystem of bees. Apiculture is an interesting science also for social scientists as this forerunner species of the matriarchy has evolved into a well-organized productive society. They are a bit harsh to each other and communication is rather unidirectional, but an interesting social cosmos of its own kind.

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Value destruction

The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset).

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Time Horizon

For ages human time horizons have worked as a succession of generations. With substantial population aging we have many more families where we find 4 generations alive at the same time. In nature and with respect to biodiversity the sequences of renewable have not changed much. Old trees that have been cut will take another 100 years to grow old again. Wild fires or human negligence risk big in this respect. Forests take several human generations to grow and thrive. Diversity is key there as well as many fast growing monocultures have increased risks in case of fires caused by global warming. Annual inspection of a forest that suffered a severe drought and fires is still looking dismal compared to before. (Foret de Senart, France 2025).

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Rich richer

The US economy under Biden had continued to make Americans richer. In an article by Talmon Joseph Smith in the New York Times from 2025-4-3 p. 7 the puzzle that Americans have grown richer, but don’t feel it, has been well explained. The large share of households owning their homes albeit with mortgages from low interest periods have witnessed their increased wealth. However, inflation is eating into their cash available for daily purchases. With another round of tariffs and additional inflationary pressure caused by those, the average person or household doesn’t fell much better off than some years ago. Economic anxiety and our preference for loss aversion or loss avoidance make us react with consumption restrictions to prepare for increased risks as well increased uncertainty about the directions of the whole economy and our very private wealth and consumption patterns. How and when the US economy will get back on track remains to be seen. Higher uncertainty usually reduces investments and with increasing interest rates again the economic recovery might be protracted. The NYT p.7 cites business owners with statements like “we’re not putting our foot on the brake, but we’re taking our foot off the gas.” Betrayel of working class people due to rising unemployment after 3 years of very low unemployment is likely to widen wealth gaps in the US population even further. The rich will get richer, but at high costs to the population as a whole. (Image: ceiling painting in Petit Palais, Paris).

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Intimate housing

The housing of famous persons has always attracted a lasting fascination. The “esprit des lieux” or the experience of the surroundings of an artist, composer, author or otherwise famous person, where most of the work had taken place is of general interest. In today’s language we would describe this as the context of creation. Biographical information and references to specific objects central to the process of creation play a crucial role in understanding what is behind human creation as it is district from AI. There are objects ( compare MAD Paris) and there are the social networks of creators. Modern biographies include both, some even in graphic forms similar to ancestry diagrams. 

The design of intimate living spaces for private life or the adequate environment for creativity are becoming more clear with the consciousness of the importance of dedicated designs of furniture, accessories and even scent. Our brains are multimodal and working as well as processing lots of information even beyond our conscious realizations. This black box of creativity is rather unique to the human brain and AI will probably take decades to emulate such complex processing. The MAD exhibition reveals that intimacy is also related to housing design and interior design. It doesn’t seem to be a random process, but habituation is part of the continued creative process. 

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Private Intimacy

Intimacy has been reserved for private affairs for centuries. Although in the medieval ages formally the right of so-called noble men could be very far-reaching into intimacy of families when the permission to marry was quite restrictive. The private intimacy is the central theme of the Paris exhibition at MAD (Link) « Private Lives ». The organization into 14 almost private rooms around a larger center piece on design leads us through the major topics of intimacy. Maybe as a surprise to some, the exhibition starts with the major actors of change related to privacy and intimacy, i. e. women. Opening up enclosures gave women more room for intimacy and at the same time it made intimacy a conscious choice and decision. “A room of one’s own” is an important step in personal development of children particularly with respect to one’s intimate life. Restrooms are another issue of intimacy, just consider recent adaptations tor m/f/d people. A whole set of accessories are on display which previously were intimate products or even secrets prepared for public viewing. Of course odors are part of the experience with a test space of noble perfumes. The various manifestations of sexuality has brought about a growing number of pleasure objects, which might also be criticized as a growing commodification of intimacy as well. The connected bedroom and the risk of surveillance are raised to warn on overexposure on social networks. Intimacy in prisons or community shelters closes the exhibition before the final highlight the room on “conversations with oneself”. A whole literary form of keeping an intimate journal has arisen from the conversations not intended to be shared with others, at least not during one’s lifetime. After a person’s death for some persons of public interest even their private intimate journals will be published shifting the balance between the private and public parts of intimacy. (Image below from exhibition, photo bottom left, Matisse painting on wall while in bed in old age). 

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Intimate change

Society changes and with it so does intimacy. The major changes pass through the behavioral changes of persons and sooner or later the whole society adopts such changes as the new normal. Trends of individualization have moved over centuries as the exhibition in the Museum of decorative art (MAD) in Paris demonstrates. At the same time the changed individual approaches to intimacy have become more widely spread quickly over time. Social media have accelerated such new trends again. Social class is yet another intervening variable in this context which created different speeds of adjustment as well as sustaining differences in kind. 

Religious beliefs and practices have made claims about how individuals should handle intimate relationships and affairs. Legal issues are defined by each society to guide moral practices as well. Hence, the sociology of intimacy is a huge topic and comparing societies an interesting topic. The development of intimacy over a person’s life course, however, is given little attention due to a lack of adequate longitudinal data. From the exhibition we are encouraged to think about the relationship of hygiene and intimacy. Bathrooms accompany us throughout our lives and privacy was originally a bourgeois concept. Over the life course we move from dependency to independence and maybe dependency again in very old age. The images (below) from the MAD exhibition range from basics of bath tubs to a painting of Edgar Degas in the background. Instagramer or YouTuber share lots of images and stylized arrangements of bathrooms on social media. It seems that intimacy is moving further into the public domain. 

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Journalists Scientists

In the theories of democracy journalism has entered the stage mainly in form of a controlling mechanism that is part of an extended checks and balances system of democracy. Independent journalists serve as effective multipliers and critical commentators which are an essential element of a well functioning democratic society. Social media’s ability to reach large audiences without adherence to independent journalists’ principles pose challenges to the way journalists are perceived by the public. The border between journalism and influencer marketing of products and opinions is continuously under pressure. Voices not heard,  underrepresented or those with few resources for large scale communication face difficulties to communicate their views in a market flooded with information and marketing. 

Another challenge to journalists is the fast evolution of scientific research and knowledge which at times derives from complicated theoretical and/or empirical methods. Hence, the relationship between journalistic reporting and scientific rigor and need for details in reporting are hard to reconcile. This necessitates a continuous dialogue between scientists and journalists to be aware of potentials and limitations to the co-evolution of the two disciplines. In order to avoid a self-referential subset in each discipline, the demonstration of successful cooperation between the two disciplines reveals the complementary role in many real-world instances. Investigative journalists often rely on additional scientific expertise and scientists who uncover manipulations of any sort in their work have to cooperate to inform society about the topics. As with global warming or PFAS risks scientists get drawn more and more into the checks and balances role within democracies. Therefore in addition to the separation of powers claimed in the political literature of the enlightenment (executive, parliamentary and judicial) we added already the 4th one of journalism and should include (5th) independent scientific research and reporting into the essential principles of well functioning democracies. The conference at the BNF in Paris on the 28th of March has raised these timely questions in the best tradition of the ongoing process of enlightenment.