Category: behavioral

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Tariffs trumped

Economists are used to differentiate between micro-and macro-level effects of tariffs. For each buyer of a car, import tariffs raise expectations about prices for a product. Many consumers will then decide to buy lower quality at the same price or postpone buying a new or replacement product for some time. For cars it might mean that many people will then decide to buy rather later than sooner. If thousands of people do so, the market will fall into recession overall and it will take months or years to come back to the same or a higher level. A political economy perspective has taught us that eager politicians are in favor of a short recession immediately after an election which increases the chances of re-election once the economy gets back to normal or catches up on lost growth. 

The US under Trump apparently gambles with such an economic rationale. Short term inflation is already rising, interest rates stay high before the upheaval caused by tariffs starts to settle. 

There is, however, another alternative mechanism at work as well. Thorstein Veblen long ago hinted towards what is not called in economics the Veblen effect. Some fancy cars for example can raise prices well above others because of their cleaving image. Just because they get even more expensive the buyers of such products gain additional attention as part of a social class which does not have to care much about their additional spending. The consequences of tariffs will most likely widen the gap between those saving dearly and those able to splash out cash despite increased tariffs. The most felt consequences, therefore, will be on social inequality within the US (compare WSJ 2025-4-24 A2 by Juliet Chung, “Richest of Rich Gain §1 Trillion”).

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Design skills

The is a huge B2C or C2B market in connection with home design and adaptations. Nowadays people are inspired by instagram, pinterest, YouTube and TikTok. Additionally, many play around with Apps to create their own images of how they would like to arrange or rearrange their home. Some have taken first steps to include measurements of their home in the design. The compatibility with professional software of the construction sector, however, is a drawback that delays or leads people to go to enterprises that take into account the prior efforts of young lay designers. It is a little bit like an own contribution in home building quite popular among new home builders to alleviate the upfront cash needed for first home acquisition. The younger generation could offer some of their “digital native” skills to bridge the gap in construction and home design. Of course, reworking and precise measurements on the location will still be required as construction has a lot of legal liability issues involved. Cooperation is a form of burden sharing to advance faster and/or with lower costs.

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Bricks and algorithms

Construction as an economic sector has suffered for decades from skill shortages. The PWC study on skill needs in construction and management of digitalization in this sector shows various deficiencies. Labor demand in excess of own training efforts in the related professions is further increasing in coming years. Migrants from across the world have come to Europe to fill the skill shortages and willingness to work in the sector. Population aging increases demand for adaptions of housing and tertiarization of the economy asked for new office space and adaptation of existing ones. 

The skills involved in construction have also evolved. Digitalization and understanding of new technology needs of modern housing increased the level of cognitive skills in the sector enormously. “just let the liquid concrete flow” will no longer suffice. Environmental obligations, renewable energy and design issues had an impact on the sector. 

Many enterprises in this sector have trailed other sectors to adopt strategies like digital pairs of a building or connected manufacturing of facilities with data sharing and compatible software. All this led to the fact that younger employees or university graduates (m/f/d) have preferred other sectors. IT development and applications are interesting and challenging in this sector as well. Logistic arrangements a formidable task as well. 

The claim of too much bureaucracy is just an excuse for lacking digitalization of the sector. Years ago we stated that every task you carry out more than once can be automized. With AI in construction digitalization starts with each singular case as a learning occasion for humans and algorithms supporting us.

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Guidelines Follow-up

The are many professional organisations which agree after thorough discussions on guidelines how to conduct professional services. As long as we have such guidelines, the adherence to the guidelines is an issue as well. This is part of a research program of organisational sociology, but there is a rather strange paradox in this field of compliance with guidelines. In the most highly educated professions like medical doctors, the rate of compliance to guidelines is below average. A study of 20+ years ago published in the JAMA Journal: Cabana et al. (1999) “Why Don’t Physicians Follow Clinical Practice Guidelines?” highlighted this paradox among medical doctors. The lack of awareness of existing or changed guidelines is one of the major reasons mentioned in this respect. Self-efficacy is also an issue, but mentioned less frequently for not following guidelines.
Besides a professional bias, related to the above average educational attainment of physicians, (believed) superior coping mechanisms compared to the average population might be at work. Mastering advanced technology might lead to a behavior that assumes to be able to handle higher risks as well.
For a profession that is used to confront issues of life and death on a regular basis some adherence to a very specific medical guideline might appear a negligible risk. However, maybe comparable to some cases among politicians or priests a logic: “rules or guidelines are for others to follow” rather than the physicians bear obvious risks to these persons themselves, but even to others in specific circumstances like the spreading of infectious diseases.
Drug or substance abuse has been evidenced before in relationship with specific professions or in historical time periods. We should take care to repeat similar studies (Cabana et al. (1999) every now and again.

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Augmented Cognition

With everybody talking about artificial intelligence we tend to overlook recent advances in augmented cognition. Just 2 examples of studies presenting new findings published in 2025 suffice to make that point. Automated versus manual driving have different effects on our brains. Automation makes us sleepy and inattentive with potentially dangerous consequences. Using EEG measures of neuromarkers the drop in attention shows up earlier than through measures of keeping one’s lane while driving. For jobs or duties that involve extended hours of attention the wearing of a mobile EEG-device could avoid lots of accidents. Drugs, alcohol or medication abuse would also show up before it is too late, I suppose (Scanion et al. 2025).
The 2nd study involved a robotic assistance to piano playing which achieved surprising training effects for learners of the music instrument. Objective measurement of speed and finger coordination might even allow overall accuracy to improve significantly. The technology around us and the one in direct contact with us, our behavior and performances shall have an impact on all of us sooner or later. We have to pose the question of how far we want to go along with these evolutions. Augmented cognition will not only be of interest for civil purposes, but military applications or dual use is evidently another option.

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Aufklärung Enlightenment

The period of the enlightenment is a historically defined time period of the late 17th and the whole 18th century. Although often associated only with Europe as its origin, the American contributions and influences have been far-reaching as well, just thinking of the “Declaration of Independence“. This historical period is, however, most interesting through the unrivalled contribution and pivotal point to the history of ideas. The exhibition and catalogue on the “Aufklärung – Enlightenment” by the German Historical Museum in Berlin exposes many of the historical editions of books that “made the enlightenment”. Philosophical writings and readings (Immanuel Kant: Kritik der …) of the period (especially in German) are tough even for native speakers of German, unlike reading of French (e.g. Jean-Jacques Rousseau) or English (e.g. John Locke) contributions to the enlightenment. Maybe this is already one of the reasons why in France the revolutionary ideas were put into practice through population-wide political movements.
The historical period of the enlightenment came to a close in the early 19th century (1806 another pivotal year). The English or French terms of enlightenment or lumière maybe be interpreted in a way that other historical periods like the medieval ages were periods of darkness, even later periods again did not live up to the idealist prerogatives of the evolution of humanity. The German term “Aufkärung” has its etymological roots more in the action associated with “to enlighten”. This hints at the continuing process of the ideas of the enlightenment in modern terms the process of individualisation, tolerance and autonomy.
There many valuable short interviews shown in the exhibition and Jürgen Habermas contributed a short closing statement to the catalogue of the exhibition on the unfinished project of the “Aufklärung” inviting us to continue also with the “Kritik der Aufklärung”. After all the enlightenment did not save us from repeated events like “Apokalyses“.
(Image: Émilie du Châtelet, below book on Newton Physics in DHM Enlightenment exhibition 2025).

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Apocalypse Depicted

At the beginning of the 21st century we have a renewed interest in depictions of the Apocalypse. “L’Apocalisse di Giovanni” has been illustrated in various Christian monasteries and some traveled quite a bit. The version of the Apocalypse (Link) which was attributed to Cambrai is a copy of the older original version found in the City library of Trèves, which dates back to the year of about 825. A flemish version of the 16th century is to be found at the BNF in Paris. Throughout the centuries the “Apocalypsis”has been reworked. The version of Trèves has the “carolingish” depiction characteristized by a presentation of image on one page and text on another page. Nowadays we are used to futuristic images and have known even worse experiences of apocalyptic events (Nazi terror). Earth quakes or man-made climate change with heating of the planet, storms, draughts and floods testify for the renewed interest in the Apocalypse. Other man-made technological innovations like rockets. atomic bombs, chemical and biological weapons overshadow even the “natural” ones. The potential of AI to cause destruction is not fully assessed until today. Swarms of drones guided by AI might reach apocalyptic levels as well. We just remind ourselves of the bombing of walls of a water reservoir by Russia in Ukraine. The Apocalypse will remain the original example of a horror story and our strange fascination for such texts, images or movies is likely to stay. (Image: extract of anonymous 1st quarter of 9th century. Trier Stadtbibliothek, Schatzkammer. Wikipedia public domain).

Apocalypse
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Law and Witches

Medical and chemical authorities have been questioned for many centuries. As far back as Friedrich Spee (1591-1635) in the early 17th century there were even among the clergy men with enlightened views on what might be helpful ways to assist people on their journey to better health or simply pain relief. This did include many unhelpful or detrimental methods as well. Scientific rigor was not well established at that time, which opened up many doors for alternative diagnosis and treatment. From a historical and sociological perspective the closing procedures of professional organizations are interesting as well as opposition to them. Early moderators between hardliner positions are rare at the times of forceful and fierce competition between opinions and doctrines that characterized medieval history. In the absence of an independent judiciary earlier moderation could be influential in specific instances. A testimony for can be found in a documentation of the biography of Friedrich Spee and the society that promotes the memory of such exemplary behavior.

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Wall Membrane

Walls are meant to separate persons. In certain circumstances, however, they work more like a membrane, which allows for example sound to pass walls. We are sometimes surprised to find out that we might hear almost every word that is spoken in a neighboring apartment or home. Listening without seeing is in fact a perfect set up for a comedy to evolve around this theme. Unintentional listening might turn into noisy listening and 2 lives start to intermingle. This is predestined for a comedy to evolve as does the theatre play by Lilou Fogli “mur mure”. The turning tripartite scenario by Jérémie Lippmann makes the 2 rooms arrangement visible where listening and seeing both separated actors a delightful experience. Understanding without seeing is better than seeing without understanding. Misunderstandings are frequent with the focus on appearances of persons. It is somehow the opposite of what our social media platforms suggest with their focus on stylized images and AI-enhanced photo editing. Hearing maybe the better seeing. In that sense the theatre play is in the emancipating tradition of authors like Ibsen or Chekhov, emancipating us from the dominant and overwhelming presence of selfies and self promotion.

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Law and Legality

Some persons consider themselves to stand above the law or push all interpretations of regulations beyond usual understanding of it. Even after a person has been dealing with pharmaceuticals or drugs used also for doping purposes, the conviction of such a person may take several years if not decades. In France, Mr Bernard Sainz seems to be a good example of such a relentless case of practicing para-medical consultations to assist mainly cyclists in endeavors to win championships or professional status. Le Monde  and Cash investigation have raised awareness of the public for such dubious practices. The “French Federation du cyclisme” and medical doctors association fight a continued legal battle against this persons exercising illegally such doping assistance. 

With apparently 56 legal procedures in connection with this person, the legal system has to bear the majority of costs of such illegal practices.

The reach of such dubious practices might be extended if the systems beyond doping, but for assisted euthanasia cannot be controlled effectively. Hence, the precursor cases of positive stimuli like doping pose similar challenges to the legal system as “negative stimuli” weakening persons as assistance to die. The end of a life course is not only a medical issue. Society-wide debates need to take place in order to organize a large consensus on the implications more liberal practices shall entail. 

(Image: Palais de Justice, Paris 2025)