Category: economics

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Fertility Fecundity

The scientific debate around changes in fertility has focused on social, economic and cultural factors to explain the drop in total fertility rates in OECD countries. The baby boom years of the 1950s and early 1960s had come to an end following the spread of new forms of birth control like contraception from the late 1960s onwards. The trend is very obvious and yet, the explanations of the trend might lack a more profound analysis of fecundity in addition to the socio-economic explanations. Shakkebaek et al. (2025) point for example to the little known effects of environmental (pollution) factors on the biological reproduction capability of humans (men and women).
Additionally, psycho-social factors like “the German Angst” fear about future developments in many social and economic fields might have direct effects, but also indirect effects on human biology. We know still very little about such feedback loops or feedback effects. We are more convinced, than we actually have hard evidence, that the BSP, SPB or PSB (B=Bio, S=Social, P=Psycho) spheres are interwoven, but an ambitious research agenda is called for to enlighten the issue. The big invisible elephant in the room might be environmental issues that enter into the fertility equations more than we have expected for many years. A nice working hypothesis for an ambitious and overdue research agenda.

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AI Workday

Our workdays have seen considerable changes throughout the last few days. The home office boom has allowed employees to work for extended hours from home. The there is an abundant literature on the effects of home office work on well-being or the work-life balance. Productivity gains could be reaped by employers and a better work-life balance was a lasting advantage for employees.
The increased use of AI specific to some occupations has introduced a new form of added  productivity for some occupations or professions, AI as complementarity, whereas other occupations suffered a higher risk of being substituted by AI applications.
Based on time diary data, the study by Wei Jiang et al. (2025) reports that users of AI have longer work time and reduced leisure time. Competitive labor markets increase the pressure to put in even higher hours of work. Nerds, just like workaholics, are likely to be drawn into excessive hours of work with increased health risks. Enterprises and consumers appear to be gaining more than the employees, who are at a higher risk of loosing out on their work-life balance over time.

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Travel Trumped

The travel and tourism sector of the U.S economy takes quite a hit from Trump‘s anti Canada and Europe tariffs and rhetoric. The Wall Street Journal (2025-6-3) reports data until May 2025  which show a 6% decline in international air travel and a 12% reduction in air arrivals from Europe (reference same period last year). Canadians seem to reduce their travels to the US as well, hitting many regions just across the long joint border. Airline bookings are an early warning indicator, but the more drastic figures are to be expected from the loss of spending tourists do not dispense in the US any more. Additionally, sizeable shares of US tourists travel to other countries due to the disgusting Trump rhetoric and spend their holiday budgets elsewhere. Trump‘s tariffs has focused a lot on redressing the trade balance of goods, but the balance of services like in tourism is worsening day by day now. The political economy of tariffs has multiple feedback effects which are quite hard to predict.

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Paris Gare

Train stations in metropolitan inner cities are hot spots of traffic and mobility. The number of people passing through these exchanges are impressive. Public transport systems are continuously put to the test of their capacity to handle passengers who want to get from A to B the fastest way possible. In Paris the RER lines, metro and buses to a great job in handling the affluence of passengers. The comparatively small number of passengers arriving and departing nyy taxi, however, still take a disproportionate amount of space. That’s part of the differentiation or inequality of mobility in Paris. Person‘s in need of assistance should have special access to central points of mobility like train stations. Everybody else could rely on shared modes of transportation otherwise the millions of inhabitants will not be able to get around in a comfortable way.

 

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Retirement Recruitment

The debate that later retirement of seniors reduces the hiring of youth has received new attention. Paul Mohnen published a paper on the “retirement slowdown on the US youth labor market” , which demonstrates this “crowding out effect”. Moreover, the recruitment of middle aged workers is also affected, as job changes slowed down for these age groups. The surprising finding is that higher skilled youth suffers the largest reduction in employment opportunities and become “pulled” into lower skilled jobs as jo offers for lower skilled persons remained high during the observation periods (until 2017!). This evidence suggests that the well-documented firm-level effect of fewer retirement means less recruitment holds also for society as a whole. Knowing that recruitment during a recession affects young workers more than persons already in employment, the macro level effects in 2025 will be rather unfavorable for young labor market entrants. (Image Frans Hals 1625, Odessa Museum in Berlin exhibition 2025).

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Robot repairs

Robots have been used mostly in industry for assembling, transport or sorting tasks. There is also a role in disassembling to enhance circularity. To repair electric or mechanic devices there is an enhanced version needed which starts with a diagnosis of the problem. Algorithms can sort out promising from dead end routes of repairs. However, the recognition of objects into things that can be repaired and those without repair potential is a worthwhile assistance. Beyond the economic and ecological rationale for repairs, there is an emotional or nostalgic sense to it as well. Maybe, from a life course perspective any object related to the teenager years of a person qualify for nostalgic value. Even simple robots or AI-assisted objects may qualify for this in future. Artificial friends will be like tamagotchis in need of repairs.

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Humanoid services

In the shadow of AI enhanced chatbots, agentic AI and generative Ai, the developers make considerable progress in robotics. The humanoid versions like from Persona AI will surround us in months, or maybe a few years from today. Investors believe it is rather sooner than later. There are many use cases for humanoids that may take over dangerous, hazardous or unhealthy tasks from humans. But even simple tasks like carrying home most of our shopping could be done for us by humanoids that follow you around the shopping mall and home. This would be a kind of personal assistant. I even thought of my humanoid robot to walk my dog on some occasions on the usual trail. 

Welcoming visitors at the doorstep could be another function to delegate in offices or even in private homes, although as a sociologist I would recommend to carefully check the sorting algorithm(s) applied to avoid unpleasant situations. The administration of medication might be another option, if only we could trust that the correct dosage would be applied. 

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Berlin building

Yes, 35 years after re-unification Berlin is still building at lots of places. The boom years of building hotels for tourists, offices for ministries, which were moving from Bonn to Berlin, is now followed by a „surprising“ need to have sufficient vacancies in private housing. Berlin is still growing in terms of population and, of course, this creates additional upward pressure on the housing market with particularly high increases on the rental market. In order to achieve a narrowing of the gap between demand and supply, Berlin is building higher as well as digging deeper into its sandy ground. In such huge open spaces near Südkreuz it is then feasible to explore and later exploit geothermal energy for years to come. Maybe it is not a surprise that apparently a Texas (USA) based investor has bought the ground and builds in Berlin. Drilling in Berlin for energy from underneath is a worthwhile business. Hence, drill baby drill has a new Berlin meaning to it. 

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Permanently anxious

„There’s a set of forces that want us to be permanently anxious“, is the phrase chosen by Tony Cokes in the exhibit just outside the „Palais Populaire“ in Berlin in 2025-5. International politics and the economic upheaval caused by Trump’s tariffs contribute to the already existing other sources of anxiety like nuclear energy and warfare. Global warming causing more extreme weather events add more man-made reasons for anxiety. The next generations will have to foot the bills we have left to them unpaid. Our current shortsightedness increases anxieties which previous generations have not known of a similar kind or in that combination. 

Community building and solidarity are ways to overcome such overwhelming anxieties. Supranational organizations like the European Union have an even stronger role to play to reassure its people with credible signs of solidarity. We are not alone in the struggle to overcome the anxiety that is creeping up around us. We are certainly stronger together than individually dealing with unspecified fears. „We shall overcome …“

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Technology maturation

Technology has its own time of maturation. The time for wind power generation was quite lengthy compared to some innovation cycles in information technologies. Maybe, due to the fact that large wind turbines had only big enterprises or public monopolies as potential clients who were already heavily invested in even bigger nuclear energy projects caused the slow pace of development of this technology. In Germany just like in Denmark, Sweden and the USA the first larger research projects took off in the mid or late 1970s. The technology is explained by Erich Hau in a comprehensive way including the early days like the « Growian » test wind turbine in Germany (extract of image below). Despite the fact that major engineering difficulties were overcome already in the early 80s, the economic and legal challenges took much longer to resolve. Nowadays, we have an additional case of energy sovereignty to add to the cost-effectiveness of power generation from winds offshore and onshore. In the coming years we are likely to see more and more decentral power generation from wind on roof tops or small poles to complement solar energy during cloudy but windy weather or at night. Just like the sunshine we shall praise the windy days for their power generation potential.