Category: Europe

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Peace and war again

“If you want peace, prepare for war”. This is one of the famous citations from Vegetius an early Roman general. For centuries we have been aware that peace and war are not opposites in a broader sense. Preparation for war can resemble war, if a country’s economy is already heavily turning towards production of weapons and intensifies research in dual use technologies. Political terminologies that shift to a vocabulary using more belligerent language may also be interpreted as a early signs of a shift in balance between peace and and early warnings on war. 4 years of the war of Russia on Ukraine territory have left traces in our vocabulary as well as budgets devoted to the preparation of a defense in Europe.
More countries of the EU state openly what is in their “national interest”, as if they were ready to go to war (Charap & Haukkala 2026) to in case major elements of the national interest were endangered. In going back to Clausewitz’s writing, a long historical line can be drawn from the Crimean War(s) to Putin’s imperialist war of 2014 and 2022 trying to capture Ukrainian territory, irrespective of enormous human losses.
Another lesson from these historical events might be: Let’s not forget to prepare for peace during the hot conflict.

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Short circuit electrification

The electrification of the automotive industries is well under way. However, there is still the resistance of a few warriors from a village called “Gaulle” that fight the imperial forces that dominate these markets. The abundance of cars with batteries and electricity-based traction keeps growing, More utility vehicles shift over to this technology as well. With India and China making significant shifts in this direction, the market has made a significant technological shift until the beginning of 2026. The share of hybrid or solely electric power in cars has risen sharply, but a small segment (10% of diesel engines seems to survive or is only slowly petering out in the coming decade. The publication by Béla Galgóczi (editor) demonstrates the challenges this poses to the companies, their employees and the automotive sector as a whole, as it comprises a large amount of employment and technologies in the traditional supply chain as well. The need for a substantial and costly shift has started, but the downsizing of companies, as electric cars need far fewer pieces than conventional ones, could offer an opportunity, if the skilled employees can be converted to other productive use.
A single sector study offers a lot of “deep” insights into a sector, but the opportunities and openings in other not to distant sectors tend to be overlooked. The European sovereignty in the area of military, standardised technology, which is also still based on many precision and metal components might come as a rescue not only to Ukraine, but to Europe as a whole.

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External-Internal Threat

In a time perspective of at least since the German unification of 1990, we have to reconsider the perception of what constitutes an external versus an internal threat. Prior to the implosion of the Soviet Union and the Glasnost years, the external Russian threat has been transformed across the globe into more hybrid threats coming from internal forces which have been “instrumentalized” by external forces. In an essay by Valentine Faure (Le Monde 2026-2-21) this twist to internal politics has been described as a form of new forms of interference of external forces into European internal political, economic and social affairs. In fact the basic strategy is as old as the famous Trojan horse, but the strategy has been refined and to work over much longer time spans as well as in other scientific applications. Any form of powerful, interested party would rather use the soft power of persuasion than brutal force to reach political objectives. Corruption and buying votes, directly or indirectly, has become a legitimate way in this hybrid or open use of power from the inside of a society than through a more traditional external affairs strategy. The confrontation of the bipolar world made it easy to put emphasis on external military power. A multilateral as well as more multilayered international political arena precludes to some extent the bipolar confrontation as conflicts on several frontiers  increases risks exponentially. In search of other strategies it seems plausible to turn to hybrid as well as disguised external force. Europe and democratic systems in general are more vulnerable than autocratic states, because the belief in an open form of society is part of its DNA. Open societies shall have to sharpen their sensory systems to transformed external to internal threats.

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EU Presidencies Review

There is a turnover at the EU presidency every 6 months. A full cycle of all presidencies takes 13 and a half years as each presidency lasts the same length irrespective of country size. CY 2026 is the current one, where CY does not only stand for “see you” in smartphone slang, but for Cyprus in 2026. The procedure to determine a working program for the Council presidency is well established and unresolved matters keep coming back in regular time intervals. The big overarching topic in 2026 is EU autonomy facing up to new challenges of the multilateral world. In the EU presidencies small countries can showcase their concerns and demonstrate what their preferred topics and proposals of solutions are. It is also a chance to make people aware of why they have been eager to join a political, cultural and economic union in the first place. Already in the founding documents the issue of security and defense were addressed. They are again on the top of the agenda in the enlarged EU. The multi-ethnic and multi- religious experience of Cyprus, a country that has lived through multiple strategic dominations over centuries, can probably teach us a lot about how difficult it is to be autonomous if other more powerful countries have put an eye on your territory. Choose your allies wisely. (Image: exhibits Cyprus at BNF 2026, CY2026EU) 

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Cyprus Aphrodite

The legendary tales about Aphrodite and Cypriote cultural heritage have inspired not only a series of conquerors, but also composers of the romantic period in the 19th century. Somehow in praise of monarchy, Fromental Halevy composed the Opera “La Reine de Chypre”, inwhich the last Queen of Cyprus had to abdicate in the medieval era.  As a formidable example of French opera style, Richard Wagner transcribed it for salon-type recitals for voice and piano. The ballet music by Franz Schubert “Rosamunde, Fürstin von Zypern“ is yet another romantic piece built on the legendary associations with the island and its history. The exhibition “Cyprus at the BNF” in Paris proposes a transversal view across centuries based on their multiple collections. The western bias of what we in the western hemisphere of the world defined as being of interest becomes visible and transparent. The oriental perspective has been complemented by a small selection of exhibits from the Bank of Cyprus Cultural Foundation. A critical perspective on what enters our collections and archives is a great scientific accomplishment, at times when biased views from politicians have become more common again. 

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Time to prevent

If we take a medical life course perspective, we shall become aware that for each event there shall be a time to prevent it. From a scientific and socio-economic point of view, this is the crucial time to prevent failure of an organ, duration of an illness, death or an otherwise disruptive event. Taking our lung or liver as examples we intuitively know that there is a long time spell during which we have a chance to work on prevention. The monitoring of the early onset of disease is (Ge et al. 2026), potentially, a very cost-saving way as well in addition to avoid humans suffering later on in multiple ways. From a theoretical point of view it will be interesting to “think intervention as prevention” already, rather than the predominant way of intervention “post-hoc”, which means after the onset of disease. This implies a rather complete overhaul of medical research just as much as social research to guide policy makers interested in the “survival” of our social security systems as we know them currently in Europe. (Image is illustration in book on fairy tales: Beckmann in exhibition at Kunstbibliothek Berlin, 2026)

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Multilateral world

In the relatively brave new world of 21st century, it is not only a question of how the super powers like the USA, China and Russia shall push their strategic goals, but also what role so-called „Middle Powers“ will play. Europe and the European Union will have to make up their minds, whether they want to belong to one or the group, individually or jointly. New as well as shifting alliances seem to be a realistic scenario. Coalitions of middle powers will be effective counterparts to the threat of domination by a single or joint brutal force of superpowers. The power of interference of middle powers in the confrontation of superpowers is considerably higher if they were to collaborate more effectively than with each of the superpowers previously in a simple 2 opponents game of chess, much more familiar to us so far. (Image: Game of chess with 4, 5 or 6 players on the same board, here adapted from chessboard for 4 players, source: greenchess.net webpage)

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Art Station

Mobility takes time. All people who travel frequently know the long waiting times at train stations. Be for commuting between places or long distance travel, we can hardly escape from the moments when time gets long and longer. The Paris train station Gare de l’Est has brought art in form of posters to the station as a kind of accessible micro-exhibition. The cooperation with the Petit Palais in Paris allows to give more people a taste or at least an appetizer to art work. Most people rush by, but some spend some minutes reading, inhaling exhaling, and continue to their destination or next date. In the battle for attention such initiatives like art in the station hold societies together. People with very different horizons cross each other for short moments in time.

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Konzerthaus Organ

In the Espresso Concert series we have had the chance to listen to young talented musicians. On 2026-1-7 Julian Emanuel Becker charmed the audience with 5+1 pieces in the “Großer Saal“ on the Jehmlich Organ (4 manuals, 74 registers, 5811 pipes). The program ranged from Bruhns, Bach, Mendelssohn Bartholdy to 2 pieces by Jehan Alain, which made for an interesting surprise. Mastering this huge Konzerthaus organ with impressive skills at just 20 years of age caught the attention of the Berlin audience including the tourists on visits. The enthusiasm of Julian Emanuel Becker for his instrument and the brief introductions he gave himself to each piece created a unique learning as well as musical experience for the entire audience irrespective of age and prior expertise. The „Espresso addicts“ of the Konzerthaus even took the chance to chat with the young organist to learn more about the marvelous instrument and the next steps in his promising career. The studies in Paris at the Conservatoire have been important steps in the careers of formidable pianists and composers for more than 200 years. Becker will surely return to Berlin to give concerts again. Try to catch a seat, if you can. (Image: Julian Emanuel Becker 2026-1-7 at the Konzerthaus Jehmlich Organ)

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Saint-Simon Utopia

Towards the end of the 18th century and during the early 19th century, the early signs of what the industrial revolution would mean for the working people became visible. Saint-Simon had lived through the ups and downs of the French revolution himself and had been to the Americas with La Fayette before he developed his utopian socialist vision of a unified class of working people, which for him included blue as well as white collar workers. At the advent of the 2nd industrial revolution through general and agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI) in 2025, we shall most likely witness a renewed interest in utopian scenarios and grand ideas of what the future of technology, society and humanity might be like. In 2026 we shall re-read Saint-Simon quite a bit in order to learn about ways to make sense of arising trends and how to come up with a positive utopia that can motivate people to thrive again for more equality within and between societies.