Category: Social Science

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Liszt home

In Budapest we can visit one of the longer living places of Franz Liszt or Ferenc Liszt as some Hungarians would insist to call him. The Beethoven trained Carl Czerny offered piano and music classes free of charge to the young Franz Liszt in Vienna at the age of 11. In the biography by Klára Hamburger she describes the Paris years of Liszt from 1823 until 1839 as the most important ones for the pianist and particularly for his later compositions. Born in Hungary, the son of 2 Austrian parents he was trained in Paris by amongst others the Czech professor of the Conservatoire de Paris Antonin Reicha just like Chopin, Flotow or Offenbach. Writing an opera was the “must do” for a composer who aimed for the highest possible career at the time. In a letter to George Sand, Liszt (published 1937) complained already about the social status of musicians in society as servants to the higher ranks of society. Similar to Ravel many years later Liszt was rejected as official scholar by the Conservatoire de Musique and his wish to marry a daughter of noble decent was rejected early in his career. Such experiences probably contributed to his leaning towards the romantic form of expressions in music during most of his compositions. Literature, paintings of the French romantic period and the traveling artist “voyages et pèlerinages” became influential in his creative process. The competition between composers must have been fierce at the time and despite ample opportunities to perform in public and private venues making a living from music wasn’t always easy at the beginning. More than 100 years after his death his compositions are still a challenge for all pianists and the Hungarian Rhapsodies probably his greatest homage to his early childhood.

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Sovereignty of People

In France the judiciary has made an influential decision to ban a politician from the possibility to be elected after conviction of fraud. This is just what is to be expected from the 3rd power in the organization of a democratic state. It is surprising that there was a political debate about a person convicted for a crime to be eligible for public office. Several eminent scholars published columns in major newspapers to support the judicial decision. Pierre Rosanvallon focused both on the justification of the verdict and the constitutional role attributed to the judiciary to operate as a kind of memory of the “general will of the people”, the ultimate sovereign. In the struggle of power within a state the judiciary defends individual rights as well as moderates between the executive and the legislative branch. In the theory of democracy this creates a double bind situation in which the individual has a right to be defended against the state and individuals who ask for judgment of cases one against another one. Eric Halphen has also argued in favor of the often neglected role of the judiciary to stand up for the “general interest”, a notion which is not easy to define without historical references in each country and its historical trajectory of democracy. The short debate about the role of the judiciary has strengthened the defensive capacity of the French democracy. Other, even mature democracies may turn their eyes on the decision of the judges involved not to shun away from unpopular decisions. The independence of the judiciary is part of the sovereignty of the people and non-negotiable part of it.

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Kids Gaming

The pressure on children and their parents is high to succumb to the temptation of digital and online gaming. Albeit there are many funny and learning alternatives for them if they are accompanied by an instructor to build or invent their own game. With some adaptations it is possible to assemble for example a coordination game for children which directs a small ball through a labyrinth. Add speed and tricky holes to the “parcour” and the race is on. It is little bit like hands-on physics as the speed and acceleration patterns across the parcour varies a lot. Planning, building and playing are an ensemble in this simple game. Probably also more fun than the x-th repetition of a digital game.

(Inspiration from: Berliner Kultur gestalten, workshops for children).

 

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Reinforcement Learning

Education scientist have embraced the change of focus form a front loaded teaching format to a focus on the learning process of pupils or students. Computer scientists have adopted this strategy in shifting from just knowledge data bases and predictions of likely next words in a sentence or paragraph to learning models. Deep Seek has surprised most large language models by its successful strategy to focus on learning and reasoning. So-called reinforcement learning is key to the programming of next generation AI models. Reasoning in most cases builds on multiple step sequences in answering a more complex question. The model then returns the answer and the steps (reasoning) applied. There is a debate whether summaries or translations of texts would need the reasoning function of AI models. Most of the time reasoning might not be necessary or even counterproductive, if the translation would try to correct an obviously faulty reasoning in a text.
Maybe, imagine also that an ordinary LLM would translate a text containing fake news. A correction loop which involves a cross-checking with reliable external sources like any encyclopedia or wikipedia would complicate the answering procedure of any text. However, this is a bit like, how the process of reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) works. Reinforcement learning applies a form of accuracy reward, which guides the learning or answering process with checks against mathematical or programming accuracy. Just think of basic logic to be respected in the answer.
Similarly, a formal accuracy control checks against mathematical models and ensures the answer is returning a text with a normal sentence structure or numbering of reasoning steps, an intro and concluding phrase, like we were all asked to do in school or universities. The amount of corrections from humans is reduced quite a lot and the computing resources are also only a fraction of the previous LLMs, which are retrieving answers from enormous databases or gigantic data factories consuming lots of energy in the processing of requests. Remember the movie on Kasparov, the world chess champion, who got beaten by a computer from IBM that did not only have a huge stock of previous games and tournaments, but could make judgments on positions and promising strategies to pursue. Don’t be surprised if a DeepSeek answer is superior to what our own mind and reasoning is capable of. Reinforcement learning is a learning tool, which we also may apply, if we deem it appropriate or just as one way of coming to an answer. (useful reference: Sebastian Raschka, Building a LLM from scratch, Manning). 

(Image, ChatGPT, 2 humanoid robots are thinking and discussing how to repair a notebook which is sitting on a workbench).

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Housing renovation

The huge amount of buildings that need renovation is a task for each generation. New constructions are relatively easy to realize even to the best available standards. Particularly energy standards asking nowadays for serious isolation of buildings are easy starting from scratch. Energetic renovations of existing buildings are much more challenging and have to take into account the various stages or predilections of previous generations. Repurposing of buildings raise additional questions like transforming a family home into a representative office building. New technologies like fiberglass instead of copper cables or copper or plastic tubes instead of other hazardous materials cause additional costs and worries. The use of asbestos for interiors of previous generations has created the greatest liability for existing buildings. Technological choices of the past and also of the present (heat pump or not) have lasting consequences and sometimes even health effects. To cherish old buildings and styles is a mixed blessing as the renovation of housing confronts home renovators with more tricky challenges than building a new home. Incremental repairs might do the trick rather than all in one go renovation, however, you might enter into a situation when renovations are always on your mind. Not only the times are a changing, but homes are a changing, too.

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Own Production

The 21st century has seen many innovations. Solar energy has been around for at least 3 decades now, but the wide spread application and adoption of it through consumers has taken quite a while. Nowadays you can buy a reasonably priced solar panel in your local shop selling gardening tools and home appliances. Solar panels have moved from a niche product to become an ordinary home enhancement product. Previously, the production of energy was highly regulated and restricted to business activities. Hence as producer and consumer of your own energy you became a “prosumer” of energy. Just refrain from selling the energy to your neighbors and you will be happy monitoring your own energy production and your energy consumption throughout the day as well. Suddenly, you might make a few behavioral adjustments to your daily routine. Throughout the day when the sun is shining bright you start to think of what kind of energy consumption you might want to switch on at the time. Charging mobile phones, cooking meals and washing are the obvious candidates that do the trick. Charging a battery of a bicycle(s) is also a good idea. The excursion of the evening or cycling to work the next few days is feasible with this as well. There is a slight danger to check the energy production frequently to optimize the return on your investment. In this case it might be expedient to invest also in a battery to store the energy  for a longer time. No stress for consuming your nuggets, but initial investment costs are substantially higher, albeit prices for batteries have come down significantly in the last few months. “Prosit prosumers”.

 

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Biased Results

The use of statistics in presenting results of research is common practice. Empirical studies are summarized using statistics and statistical methods based on samples of bigger populations are cost efficient. However, care needs to be exercised when interpreting results to guard against inappropriate conclusions derived from biased estimates. Since the topic has been highlighted and methods proposed to handle them, these methods were deemed worthy of a Nobel prize.  The basic problem of a bias due to a selective sample has been demonstrated by Stockwell et al. (2024). The authors investigate the old question, whether a little bit of alcohol consumption (per day) could be beneficial for our health. The statistical issue which needs careful examination is the construction of the control group against which the results are compared. Apparently many studies have biased control groups which included persons in the not drinking control group who had stopped drinking for bad health previously. Compared to those persons with other health conditions those drinking a little bit compared rather well. But of course such individuals should not be present in a control group. Of the control group is biased due to many persons with below average health the groups of interest consuming higher levels of alcohol do not perform so badly. Hence, interpretation of results from medical or social science studies has to consider carefully the actual or potential sources of bias. Not really a new results in statistics, but still not well known or understood by the public at large. Drug consumption as well as studies of this consumption could deserve the same sticker: handle with care. (Image: Extract from Tenier II David, Les fumeurs, also entitled Chanson à boire, 17th century, Paris Petit Palais).

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Sun power

Statistics of hours of sunshine in Germany and many European countries show an extraordinary amount of sunny days in March 2025 compared to previous years. This opens up a window of opportunity to produce electricity already in a month previously less likely to yield a lot of energy. With more likely 8 months of decent electricity production the efficiency of investments in solar energy reach break even points earlier. Time to think of expanding the share of renewable energy even further. The cost effectiveness is improving in rather unpredictable ways. Economists, of course, consider opportunity costs in this case the alternative to use oil or gas despite the higher levels of CO2 emissions. As the prices are currently lower as well, without an easily predictable trend, solar alternatives are a valid option.

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Retirement Plans

There are debates about the best organization of retirement. The major fault lines lie between public pension systems and systems that are built based on mainly private provision. Retirement plans in either system are subject to constraints. The recent stock market turbulence has increased the amount of uncertainty people face who invested in 401K plans in the US. Some had to take an unannounced hit to their retirement savings due to the loss after Trump’s back and forth policies on tariffs (OECD Pension Outlook). High volatility of stock market prices creates an additional constraint that you are less inclined to retire when your retirement investments have overall a reduced value. You are a bit at the mercy of capital markets even in your retirement decision, irrespective of the difficulty to predict what your retirement funds will yield as returns. Quite an important lesson to keep in mind when comparing retirement systems in OECD countries. It has been all too easy to blame public pension systems for maybe lower short term interests on pension savings. Being subject to an American president concerning your retirement plans is probably not what many countries would like to have. Trump’s choices on tariffs may have consequences we did not expect to affect us so directly.

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Tariffs Trade Deficits

US Tariffs target the US trade deficits across the globe. For a start on the topic it is helpful to take a look at the data. The US bureau of census publishes this time series regularly. Currently, you can compare monthly or annual data across countries from 1985 to 2025. The worsening of the trade balance is obvious just looking into some examples like trade with the EU, China, Japan, South Korea or Switzerland. we might calculate some rough indicators of trade deficits of the US with countries by the size of the country, which would make Switzerland look really bad relative to many much more populous countries. This probably explains why Switzerland is threatened by higher tariffs than the EU. However, this hints towards the “hidden” agenda of tariffs on countries. The major targets are multinational companies that produce in countries outside the US and particularly in those with low corporate taxes, like Ireland and Switzerland. Importing products from such countries worsened the US trade balance over decades.

Another factor to study more precisely is the sectoral pattern driving the trade deficits with countries. Exports in for example health-related products have soared due to Covid-19 pandemic starting in 2019. Where did the US buy face masks, ventilators, medicines and pharmaceuticals?  These countries will now also be penalized by higher tariffs. The tariffs topic is a complex interconnected business issue, which is not solved by blunt measures. The real danger is that with each month trust in US will erode further. For decades this has been an underestimated currency of international business. Eroding trust is likely to be the major fallout of the tariff and trade deficit nexus. It takes decades to build, but can be destroyed within a few days or weeks. (Image: Mont des arts Brussels February 2024, celebration of surrealism).