Category: Zukunft

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Future Conflicts

Since 2014-2-27 Russia has occupied the Crimean peninsula. This invasion had started with an undercover mission of unmarked soldiers to take full control of Crimea about 3 weeks later. Russia did not officially declare a war, although the intentions were identical to a land grabbing war. The western world did not react much to this violation of international law. Apparently, this contributed to the next cynical “special operation” by the Russian army to fully invade Ukraine on 2022-2-24 in a failed “Blitzkrieg”, a rapid invasion, which attempted and failed to annex the whole of Ukraine. According to Lissner & Warden (2026) the Russian invasion of Ukraine bears 4 lessons for future conflicts: (1) the risk of using nuclear weapons is real, (2) in addition to nuclear options, prolonged and very destructive conventional wars remain an option, (3) escalation thresholds emerge and evolve over the duration of the conflict, (4) allies and partners in war keep adjusting their risk tolerance as well as escalation options. The authors argue from a US perspective and add a practical comment: “The USA cannot go this alone, but should coordinate closely with allies and partners in time before another conflict arises. Multilateralism seems a valid option and even more so as we move into a multipolar power play on the global scale propelled by AI.
(Image: Musée Orsay, Paris – Archer, Bogenspannende)

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Climate, time and space

For statistical analyses is good practice to not only study averages, but whole distributions over time and space. Climate change is an obvious candidate to apply such a methodology. The analysis of US data on temperature changes across quantiles of the distribution in 48 regions over 70 years finds distinct patterns of temperature changes. The authors María Dolores Gadea Rivas and Jesús Gonzalo published their findings in PLOS Climate, which showed different patterns of climate warming. Taking into account that it is not only average temperatures that may shift, but only the lower winter temperatures or the warmer summer peaks, they find overall 84% of the regions experienced a statistically significant warming effect. Whereas a higher summer peak is commonly perceived as a climate warming problem, a warmer winter usually is less associated with climate change. This leads to an overall misinterpretation or lower perception that climate warming is and has been happening over the last decades. With yellow daffodils on 2026-2-8, usually a winter day in Brussels (see image), the warm winter days are also evidence that global warming is well under way all year round and across the planet.  

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Time and power

Who commands our time? Who commands your time? Both macro- and micro-level analyses of power relationships related to time need to be investigated. Time policies are most obvious when it comes to regulations of working time, permissions of business hours or so-called bank holidays. On the micro or individual level, it is often the question of who spends more time on work, care and repair. Hourly wage rates have been claimed by economists to guide or decide societal time spent on one or the other activity. An extension of this rationale with an overriding objective of happiness might considerably change the impact of power relationships on time. Longer time perspectives on health shall also shift the view of how power impacts the time spent on various activities. Time sovereignty is a precious value in its own right.
The power play between employers and employees keeps shifting the balance, albeit the overall trend over the last 100 years has been towards a reduction of working time and increased time sovereignty of employees as a form of democratization of working life. This constitutes one form to share the benefits of productivity gains over decades as well. (Image clock on Berlin City Council building on labor day 2025).

 

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Multilateral world

In the relatively brave new world of 21st century, it is not only a question of how the super powers like the USA, China and Russia shall push their strategic goals, but also what role so-called „Middle Powers“ will play. Europe and the European Union will have to make up their minds, whether they want to belong to one or the group, individually or jointly. New as well as shifting alliances seem to be a realistic scenario. Coalitions of middle powers will be effective counterparts to the threat of domination by a single or joint brutal force of superpowers. The power of interference of middle powers in the confrontation of superpowers is considerably higher if they were to collaborate more effectively than with each of the superpowers previously in a simple 2 opponents game of chess, much more familiar to us so far. (Image: Game of chess with 4, 5 or 6 players on the same board, here adapted from chessboard for 4 players, source: greenchess.net webpage)

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Democracy in democracy

The more we are confronted with illiberal turns of democracies, the more we need to watch out for democracy washing in democracies. What do we mean by this? The NGOs like Transparency International, for example, keep records of states and their tendency to use in-transparent means or corruption to pursue their political objectives. In addition to such criteria there a number of non-negotiable items in democracy, which justify to carry rightfully the label of being a democratic state. Separation of powers, independence of the judiciary, freedom of the press figure among the best known criteria. Some states or theorists of democracy would add a federal organization to this list. The control over the military forces and the freedom to object to subscriptions is particularly relevant at times of armed conflict. Equal rights for women and men and laid convictions as well as freedom of consciousness or religious beliefs have been and still are a challenge in some countries. Each of the broader topics have to be broken down into more specific issues and indicators to measure the evolution. Advances in some areas might be confronted with regress in other areas. Each of us may have their own list of priorities what makes a democracy a democracy. On many criteria the USA has lost a leading role. The evolution of democracy in the US-American democracy has become a substantial threat to other democracies. Such analyses of comparative democracy research should guide us in the way which alliances we want to choose in the new multipolar world.

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Timely timeless

It is very timely to discuss timelessness. Some inventions or artwork appear to have a timeless value. The creation of books has this feature as we have known also a lot about the conservation and restoration of books across centuries. Timelessness is about an open-ended vision of time. In mathematics it is a usual part of the differential equations‘ calculus to handle infinity as an operationalisation or a form of a projection of time into timelessness. Humans have made considerable efforts to create material and, most of all, immaterial goods which try to exist independently from time. Geek or Roman philosophy are with us for more than 2000 years and we still benefit from returning to this original concepts. Egyptian culture and the wall paintings in caves still speak to us, thousands of years afterwards. Each clock suggests that time is advancing, but some treasures achieve the level of a timeless beauty, art or conceptual masterpiece. The more we talk about time, the more we shall cherish timelessness. (Image: Neue Nationalgalerie, Berlin 2026-1, The clock screening)

 

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Futures for Amazonia

Diversity is the treasure of humanity. This was and remains a permanent challenge as thinking in multiple perspectives is taxing our minds. Simplicity can be a value in science or mathematical proofs, but cybernetics teach is also about the usefulness of a “requisite variety”. The exhibition Amazonia at the Quai Branly in Paris takes us on a journey through richness of the Amazonas, its people, biodiversity and landscapes. First of all the curators Varison and Baniwa manage to accompany us in opening up our minds to non-western concepts, which have for centuries been considered as less developed, but only from a western point of view or imagined sort of cultural superiority. Even nowadays the West seems to be convinced that for the liberation of, for example Venezuela, only a western power can achieve this. The 300 different indigenous peoples of Amazonia have lived through hundreds of years of threats to preserve their cultures. They have managed and they have inherited and still develop multiple ideas about “futures” of the Amazonas region. In just 100 days this exhibition has reached more than 100.000 visitors. Most of them will be convinced of a future and, yes, futures for Amazonia. 

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Between micro and de-facto state

In political science we distinguish between small, micro-states and territories or regions that are defined as de-facto states. Björn Boman (2025) has put the wealthy states of Monaco, Lichtenstein and San Marino into the micro-states category. On the contrary, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donetsk and Luhansk fall under the label of de-facto states with more controlled access as well as under Russian influence using brutal force to control the zone of Russian influence. Due to its size Ukraine as a whole has been able to resist the Russian forces to be degraded to a de-facto state only. The military and technical ingenuity of a well educated workforce allowed the Ukraine leadership to not only counter the Russian invasion, but also to mobilize enormous support from western democracies in form of weapons, financial and humanitarian assistance including millions of refugees over the last 4 years. Size of territory has entered the equation or balance whether to belong to a the micro- or de-facto state category. In the new multipolar international political arena “the sovereign state” has become a more hybrid concept as well. Micro-states have handled the difference between full internal sovereignty and only partial external sovereignty already for years, the new multipolar international arena is being transformed rapidly in this direction. Choose your camp or align with a sufficient number of countries to form an internal and external sovereign area.

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Utopian Mobility

From time to time we have to reconsider our investments in mobility infrastructure. What seemed to make sense in the 50s,60s or 70s often makes no sense 60 years later. Highways, which separate city districts like walls belong to rather utopian visions about City life and mobility, progress and living conditions. These utopian individualized mobility solutions don’t seem to serve us as well as we believed, or were made to believe, more than half a century ago. Empty highways midday at the turn of 2025/26 tell their own story about liabilities from the past and outdated ideas of technical and social progress. Sharing solutions have become very popular and the younger generations adopt already different mobility patterns than older generations. Each generation adheres to its own more or less utopian mobility model, adjustments are likely to be made accordingly. 

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Utopian Antifascists

Next to the exhibition on “Global Fascism” in Berlin in 2025-12 there was a banner on the wall, which stated “Antifascism as Utopia” (see image below). This statement invites the question, whether an antithesis can serve as a positive utopian idea guiding large numbers of people. It is certainly necessary that all people who subscribe to democratic principles and human values should be able to unite under the banner of antifascism, but the ways to pursue this goal are manifold. This makes the claim of an utopian objective a bit more obvious and, at the same time, more plausible as a potentially overarching objective. The statement might well turn out to be the defining statement or key visual of the year 2026 with rising nationalist and in some places also fascist ideas and rhetoric. Thoughts and words might be only precursors of more such actions in the coming months.