Tag: election

Posted on

Realist Democracy

2000 years after the “invention” of and first attempts to develop a theory of democracy, we have come round to seriously think about “a realist theory of democracy” (Achen & Bartels, 2016). The ideals formulated in constitutions deviate sometimes substantially from the practice. Therefore, we have courts, (ideally) independent judiciaries, journalists and scientists. All these well-established safe-guards to ensure well-functioning democratic structures continue to be challenged. In each democratic country we can cite “derailing” of political leaders that try to bypass democratic institutions. The latest example in 2026 is the Mayor of Berlin Kai Wegner. He deceived, some claim he lied, repeatedly before his own party base refuted him as their representative when lies were uncovered. There have been several other politicians who have covered up his misinformation of the public about his handling of an urgency, which affected 100.000 people sitting without electricity during winter days. It took 6 months to uncover the truth about the handling of the crisis. However, eventually the truth and the lying to the media and the public became uncovered. The merit of this occurrence in Berlin is the hope that democratic ideals can be upheld even in rather hierarchic organizations and so-called head-fast leadership.

Posted on

Democracy or Democrisis

Measured on a global scale, democracy is in retreat. The report by the “Varieties of Democracy Institute” indicates that there are fewer people on the globe who enjoy the freedom and benefits of democracy overall. This is measured in domains like freedom of expression and the democratic quality of elections. The prevalence of democratic decision-making in opposition to autocratic ruling is closely related to the possibility to freely elect a new government in regular time intervals. The V-Dem Report 2026 indicates that 18 countries are on a favourable democratic development trajectory, whereas democracy is on the retreat in 44 countries. The freedom of expression suffered most (44 countries) and the quality of elections suffered in 22 countries. The positive developments (11 for freedom of expression, 7 for quality of elections) were outnumbered by negative ones. The cases of big countries with negative trends towards or tightening of autocratic ruling deteriorates the overall number of countries and specifically the number of people living in democracies in 2025 on the globe.
For all those living in lively democracies this should be a warning message (South Korea), that democracy is not a given. The enemies of democracy are working continuously from external territories to undermine a country’s democratic structures and decision-making. It is urgent to raise the quotas and limits by which fundamental democratic rules can be abandoned before it is too late. Let’s prepare a “defensive democracy doctrine” in Europe and the EU to signal more forcefully our willingness to stand up for freedom and democracy as fundamental values of humanity rather than an “Animal Farm“.

Posted on

Urban rural voters

On Sunday 2026-3-22 local elections of the 2nd round took place in France and some parts and cities in Bavaria. The voters have in both instances confirmed the hypothesis that voters have very different preferences for political parties along the cleavage of urban versus rural voters. The sociological issue consists in the different socioeconomic as well as educational backgrounds of the populations. Across the 2 countries inner cities have environmental issues, safe transport and rents as major concerns. In rural areas a feeling of being disconnected and left behind is frequently the predominant concern, often in terms of lacking transportation infrastructure. Voters on the local level have a more direct connection to their elected politicians and scrutinize implementation as well as promises more closely. This is a much more complex issue for voters on the national level as more topics enter the equation. The political agenda, therefore, differs substantially for urban and rural voters. This is a tough challenge for the nationwide campaign teams to test the validity of their agenda locally as well. 

Posted on

Election Participation Bundestag

The election of the German Bundestag 2025-2-23 has brought about many changes to the 1st chamber, the national parliament. First the voting system had changed to limit the newly elected parliament to 630 seats for a total of about 60 million people entitled to vote. 50 million voted in the election. The national average of participation in the election reached a very high 82.5%, with a range from 73.5% to 88%. Overall, it has been the highest participation rate since reunification. Political parties have to pass a barrier of 5% to be eligible for seats in the Bundestag. This regulation had been installed to avoid too many small parties to enter the Parliament as coalition building could be rather difficult and lengthy.
2 political parties missed this barrier closely, one with 4,3 % and another one with 4,97% of votes in the so-called 2nd vote, which is the vote for proportional representation in parliament after which the seats are allocated. Adding those ballots casts together, this means that for these 2 parties about 4.5 million votes do not get any representation at the national level. Several other smaller parties add more than 1 million votes, which are finally without any national representation. However, the only regionally campaigning conservative party from Bavaria reached 3 million votes (6% of votes) on the national level, which gives them a representation of 44 seats in the Bundestag.
Participation across age groups follows a relatively constant pattern. Older votes 60+ have relatively high voter turnout, whereas the younger age groups do not use the chance to vote as much as other age groups. This remains a challenge for democratic representation. The youngest have the longest time spell to live with the consequences of democratic representation and resulting policies. There are useful debates to lower the current legal age (18) to 16 years of age for voting to soften the effects of aging societies voting. Children, or currently anybody under 18, have no impact on political representation. An overweighting of families with children might fix such deficits. If the number of children drops further, we might eventually be willing to give our future a stronger voice in political elections. (Image: empty Berlin playground 2025)

Posted on

Sectoral Change

The long-term view of sectoral change in France, for example, from 1800-2022 (Cagé and Piketty, 2023 p. 128) allows us to zoom out of our narrow focus of the last few years of economic change. The decline of agriculture is the most remarkable. The reduction of employment in industry and construction has been an ongoing trend as well. Banking, insurances, property and consulting have seen remarkable expansion over these years. Public services, security and legal affairs are still on a moderate rise. Other sectors like education, health, commerce and transport manage to grow equally.
The merit of the comprehensive volume by Cagé and Piketty (2023) is that it is thoroughly data driven and based on quite unique long data series. The data on structural change and just the employment trends depicted below refocus our attention on likely consequences of these changes.
For the 2 authors we should redirect our attention much more to the implications of these trends (like rising inequality) on political conflicts and power struggles. Democracies are at risk, if we continue to ignore these seminal changes of industrial structures and shifts in employment. The traditional strongholds of trade unions and progressive forces in the manufacturing and construction industries as well as in public transport seem to have unaccounted implications for our political systems as well. The volume by Cagé and Piketty (2023) will soon be available in English and reach broader audiences just-in-time for the European Parliament elections in June 2024. Particularly the spatial implications and how the neglect to take into account the fundamental differences between the rural development and structural change needs urgent reconsideration. After the time for reading and working with the data (LINK) is the time for action to preserve our European Dream of peace and social development.