The destruction of economic values as they are embedded in quotations on national and international stock exchanges has reached levels after the US tariffs announcements of unprecedented levels. Only the banking crisis had reached similar levels and bursting speculation bubbles. Whereas professional investors might have seen this coming, the normal small investors who had hoped for a positive effect of Trump’s economic policies on shareholder values, which occurred right after the election has been wiped off already. For those people who rely on stock market investments for their pensions have to digest heavy losses now. The second round effects of reduced consumption of pensioners who have lost 10% of their retirement savings will further aggravate the situation for this group of people. Paired with higher expected inflation the economy will be forced into a recession caused by Trump’s tariff announcements and enactments. As this will lower prices of oil and gas as well as other raw materials, his electoral base of tycoons following a « drill baby drill » device experience also losses. A lot of damage all around him leaves millions of people in the US with losses to digest. Probably even more across the world, particularly in the poorest countries of the world. Such a real world macroeconomic experiment is like playing poker on a global scale. However, many countries may build new alliances that may wither the storm better than Trump anticipated. Hence, the game of poker will reenter economic textbooks again in addition to game theory and maybe chess strategies. (Image winter sunset). 
Existence as Eggsistence
Artists have their own ways of hallucinating. They don’t need an AI to generate ideas beyond the normal, even allowing for 2 standard deviations off the usual. As a result of the thorny question about your existence, Ram Katzir came up with the impressive statement about his „eggsistence“ being subjected to a squeezed experience. Ever increasing shares of the labor force would subscribe to this statement about the modern workplace. Each turn of the screw risks to crack up the egg‘s shell. Rather focus on the egg, try to get a grip on the screw. There are thousands if not millions who crack up under the excessive pressure of economic and political circumstances. The new platforms of food, grocery and parcel delivery at home have become the latest example of AI-assisted and algorithmicly managed screws. What is driving your eggsistence. It is about time to ask fundamental questions again. (Image: Eggsistence, by Ram Katzir 2021 in Brussels, Galilas Collection Belgium) 
Passing Disasters
We live in rather cynical times. Just like the practice to scroll through hundreds of newspaper pages or social media entries we pass over the reports of of disaster after the other. Whole industries live from the reporting of disasters in a sensational manner. As the speed of reporting via social and online media has increased over the last few years the time to reflect what are the reasons for the multiple disasters has moved backstage. On the forefront are journalists and life bloggers who gain from increased reach and with the duration of their reporting of disasters. These are the first round effects. Second in line are people proposing fast fixes of what seems to be the problem at first sight. A more thorough analytical approach has little chance against the overwhelming effects of disaster imagery. Before the necessary dara and analyses have been carried out by scientists the next disaster already dominates the headlines and images. Flooding and droughts come and go faster due to climate change, but the reactions just del with reporting and capturing of attention rather than analyses. Next follows the blame game. Rather than unity to deal with consequences responsibility gets pushed from one instance to the next. Another cynical twist is the rise in insurance premiums to be paid by all, because the reporting hypes have increased the cost of repairs for insurance companies and after all more people shall seek insurance and have a higher readiness to accept higher rates for disaster insurance. Maybe this is just another more recent chapter of Sloterdijk‘s „Kritik der zynischen Vernunft“, which we witness currently. The effect of passing disasters is often a feeling of helplessness or powerlessness although we need to do just the opposite. Get together and act together after adequate analyses of underlying mechanisms. (Image Aristite Maillol Brussels, MRBAB) 
Fiscal Union
European Integration is slow and hard to come by. For others it is moving too fast (Brexit). Cultural diversity is a real asset of the EU. The economy or the economies are powerful on an international scale. Nevertheless, the diversity concerning the tolerance of fiscal deficits is still widely spread across the Member States of the EU (see image below). Some states seem to play it cool and run relatively high deficits compared to the EU averages. In OECD comparisons most of the above average fiscal deficits are closer to or even below OECD averages over time (link to pdf-file OECD, 2024). Within the EU differences in government expenditure as % of GDP or the indicator of Gross public debt according to the Maastricht Criteria range from 20% to 160% as percentage of GDP. This entails a different level of resilience to future crises. After we managed to leave the previous 3 crises (financial, Covid-19, energy) it is time to prepare for what might come next in terms of challenges. Preparing public deficits to be able to soften economic shocks is essential to be able to sustain yourself and support others. We seem to be a bit off-target to coordinate fiscal deficits across the Union. Eastern and Northern countries have suffienct scope to support expansionist fiscal policies, be it in the realm of a defence union or to address climate change. Southern Europe will find it more difficult to raise additional funds to prepare now for future challenges. Fiscal deficits might even be not only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one as well. If we compare Japan with a deficit running at 240% with South Korea with 50% Asia is showing even larger diversity in terms of fiscal preparedness.
An economist’s stance on fiscal policy and fiscal union might depend much more on her/his region or country of origin than economists might want to believe.
Images: OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c671124e-en. p.17. 
Wage indexation
Currently inflation increases rapidly in many countries. Yes, Argentine. The Euro-zone and EEA have mastered the peak of inflation due to shifting away from Russian dependency and cheap prices for energy and dealt with carry-on effects related to high energy inputs. The annual rate of inflation calculated for January 2024 has returned in the Euro-area to 2.8 % close to the European Central Bank target of 2% (compare figure below). Inflation puts wages under pressure, because household with little savings have a very hard time to cope with sudden price increases. For society as a whole, inflation raises many questions of differential impact of inflation on different parts of society. Savings become devalued, but debt might become easier to be repaid in so-called real terms.
Wage earners suffer in terms of lower purchasing power unless in subsequent wage negotiations pay rises can be achieved. This then depends of negotiation power of groups or sectors of the economy. Trade unions have to enter into tough negotiations and conflicts to even regain the same status quo previously achieved in wage negotiations. A series of conflicts and economic readjustments by more or less powerful sectors or representation comes into play.
All this is happening in a year of a series of national and regional elections as well as the European Parliament election in June. Political turbulance and the rise of extremists might be a result of a lack of taking into account the needs of lower wage groups who are likely to feel the full blast of the high inflation previously still today. Wage indexation as in Belgium, which fixes wages to the rise in inflation previously takes out most of the explosive power of a sudden rise in inflation at the risk of an upward wage-price spiral. The recent inflation figures for Belgium, however, show that this is not the case. An overshooting has been followed by an undershooting of the Euro-zone inflation. The political disturbance and risk of redistribution to more powerful groups in society can be limited through general wage indexation or indexation of for example just minimum wages.
The Russian caused spike in inflation has been successfully mastered in the EU. The political economy of redistribution through inflation will remain an important element unless wage indexation is used in more countries to escape populists’ and extremists’ voices. 
(Image Eurostat data and ESTATEC app)
Civil Protection
A lot of important activities do not receive the attention they deserve. During a humanitarian crisis, Europe frequently acts with varying involvement of Member States. This holds true in droughts, inundations, earth quakes, civil wars or imperialist state conflicts. The extent and time of commitment are an additional and differentiating element. Coordination of such activities is important for those wanting to help and those asking or receiving assistance. Efforts, equipment and political support vary enormously as well. There is a need to approach this topic more strategically. The Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network (UCPKN) goes a long way to attempt to find a common language, data infrastructure and responses in this respect. It surely is important to go beyond the piecemeal approach of the past to be able to address emergencies in multiple kinds more effectively. It is, however, also in some instances a highly controversial issue as well. For each term in this old (Tschernobyl nuclear disaster) and still novel field (Fukushima) for joint activities, we have to come up with compromises of definitions.
For example, what constitutes an emergency? Does the climate crisis and disasters related to it already constitute an emergency now? Some say yes, we have to act now to avoid bigger floods and wild fires as of next year. Others, do not want to tackle the root causes, but rather focus on curing actual devastating effects of disasters.
We are back to a well-known topic of preventive rather than curative approaches. In the meantime, we are convinced that we have to commit more resources to both approaches: immediate relief and structural change to prevent an otherwise never-ending sequence of disasters in varying places.
Most important probably is the keeping of address books and fast digital networking facilities to react and communicate with the competent institutions and civil organisations. Beyond the involvement and linking of experts in the field, the larger public and volunteers make up for additional invaluable resources to act.
It is crucial to make it possible for decentral links between cities like in city partnerships to be involved. Building on existing human to human links motivates and mobilises huge additional resources. Of course, continuous training is a very important element in all those efforts. We should embrace it in the private and public sector, at school and in retirement even. (Image: Extrait de Peter Paul Rubens La chute des géants MRBAB, Brussels)