Tag: e-car

Posted on

Unwinding USA

Stock markets move largely due to expectations. Therefore, the mixing of economics and politics can create lots of signals, which are likely to raise price expectations. Inflationary pressures will call for central banks to increase interest rates which will reduce economic activities that are largely financed through the credit market.
The unwinding of the economy reduces turnover and most likely also profits of companies. The fate of Tesla cars in the last 2 months (Link) and the stock market value of Tesla shares (Link) have plummeted. The unwinding of shareholder value and inflation on the rise as well are a the effects of the MAGA narrative and Musk‘s appointment in politics as chief of GOPE.
The „home made recession“ in the US and the choice to prioritize own products might work in the long run, but the costs of the short-term induced inflation will affect vulnerable consumers more than the people who buy many products that show few price increases. The unwinding of the economy of the USA is likely to cause shock waves rippling through the global economy.
Image: Prices to charge e-cars with solar energy in Germany according to sunshine.

Screenshot

 

Posted on

Smart Cars

Technology of cars and in cars has evolved rapidly with the move towards the smart cars. Smart cars are characterized by many additional sensors, almost permanent connectivity to the producer’s software platform, the internet, autonomous driving capability or, potentially, remote control. We might still curse some nostalgic feelings of being in driving seat, but the supervision of our capability to drive and monitoring of behavior has reached impressive levels of perfection beyond the fasten your seatbelt sign and alarm. The software that is driving our cars has become the challenge of the coming years and with this the concern for data privacy and cyber security. Smart cars have multiple cameras to guide driving and parking effectively. These cameras are also a perfect spy even around or in your home. From our smartphones we all know the scanning of connectable Bluetooth devices or wlan nearby. Smart cars are powerful assistants in data collection sometimes even beyond your control, for example who these data are sent to. June Yoon (2024-10-2 Financial Times) has developed this rationale even further to stir up additional fears: “A hacked self-driving car might even be turned into a weapon”. The weaponization of beepers, talky-walkies is certainly not the last step in this process of potential dangers of technology. Smart cars come with additional risks, not only additional comfort. Better choose your rollercoaster wisely.

Posted on

Mobility Concept

Berlin has an exceptional chance to rethink mobility in the city as new modes of transport arise. Just as the bicycle paths have been expanded over the last decade there more options to reach your destination. For the vast majority of moves in the city the “decision tree” has grown new branches. We start to change habits to consider (1) walking (2) bicycle (3) roller (4) public transport and (5) cars (electric and sharing or still owned). Multi-modality (Jelbi) in Berlin figures out the best combination for you getting from A to B. Other hybrid forms of transport start their entry in the big cities.
The last hybrid form that soon will claim an entry into the Deutsches Technikmuseum in Berlin is the hybrid version between a bicycle and a car. The Hopper has a permission as a bicycle. It is allowed to use bicycle tracks and therefore has an advantage on the “last mile”. At the same time, it feels more like sitting in a car and a 2nd person behind you, 2 children and/or luggage or shopping bags. These hybrid forms manage to combine advantages of both original modes of transport. You may feel more safe, dry and visible on the roads like in a car, but you are not travelling at more than 25km/h. Cyclist might not be to keen to have a big competitor on their limited cycle space.
Legally the Hopper would need to take the cycle path even if the road would be empty, but there are many cyclists on the cycle path. This is a good reminder of the societal and legal issues involved in new technological solutions. Acceptability of another competitor for space in the city has to be earned. Legality has to be tested and laws interpreted, whether the hybrid form falls in one or the other pre-existing category. Otherwise, the legislator has to establish a new category altogether, but this is the very lengthy procedure. Two bicycle wheels in front and one motorbike-like wheel in the back make 2/3 bicycle and 1/3 moped.
With a stronger electric support, the bicycle becomes a pedelec and can go faster, has to use roads and is insurable against accidents. The options grow. We are likely to witness more innovation and options in the world of mobility. The proof of concept has been achieved. Finding a market for the hybrid mode of transport is another challenge. Competition and lobbying are fierce in this world of mobility as well.

Posted on

Bidenomics

Some American presidents become famous due to specific economic policies they managed to formulate, get approved and implemented them. Reaganomics, of previous U.S. president Ronald Reagan, was coined in connection with an open market doctrine, favouring monetary policy instead of fiscal stimuli. Bidenomics, of incumbent president Joe Biden, is characterised by his “produce in America”, Inflation Reduction Act, and fiscal stimulus provided for green and social investments.
Whereas Reagon sat more with bankers and central bankers, Biden is keen to stand with unionised workers even on the picket line. Investments that favour good jobs, jobs that apply pay scales agreed upon through collective bargaining are part of the Bidenomics that seems to work to raise the wages of the middle-class people. In the medium-term there might even be effects to lift the lower wages in other sectors of the economy as well. However, this is the tricky part of the equation to support the middle-classes and somehow the median voter.
American elections are won in so-called swing states that have voted democrats or republicans by narrow margins. Many of these states are in the “Rust-belt” states that have or had a strong manufacturing base. Bidenomics works hard to make the economy work for those people in these states, who have felt threatened by declassification, job loss and undercutting of wages due to migration. Substantial wage gains from $32/h to $40/h over 4 years is a landmark achievement in the U.S (see New York Times below). Non-unionised firms like Tesla, Hyundai or BMW and Mercedes in the U.S. will be isolated if they do not follow General Motors, Ford and Stellantis in the coming months or years.
It is not just about cars and trucks and wages, but about the chances of Biden and the Democrats to stem the renewed populist tide in the U.S. German car makers appear to be in the camp with the Tesla X-Man avoiding to negotiate with trade unions in the U.S. If Biden stays on as president after the next election, Bidenomics will gain further support and production of batteries and cars will be favoured locally with good paying, unionised jobs. Despite the high interest rates currently it is astonishing to many economist that the U.S. has not fallen into recession like for example Germany in at least 2 quarters of 2023. (Image: extract of Ney York Times 2023-11-2)

Posted on

Get mobile

In inner cities, plagued by horrible traffic jams and pollution by cars and lorries, we dearly await at least the one day per year without this nuisance. Mobility can be organized differently. Brussels demonstrates this in an exemplary fashion. Many families gear up for this one day to teach kids how to cycle technically without the dangers of the fight for space, speed and breathable air. Older persons also feel much more save then and walk or cycle longer distances than they usually do. So many winners and only a few forced to not use their cars during 10 hours. Massive health benefits for the whole city, especially on too warm a day in autumn 2023. All these kinds of ideas were already discussed before the COVID-19 crisis on a mobility fair in Brussels. It is not the ideas that are missing, but the political will and courage to try new ways forward. Learning that walking and cycling in cities do not hurt you, prepares the readiness to go further along this path. Just do it. And do it faster than in the past. The planet needs it, people seem to really like it, too. Enjoy.

Car free sunday Brussels 2023-9-17
Posted on

Car Energy

The car industry sells more electricity-driven than diesel-cars for the first time in July 2023 (ACEA, 2023). This is a turnaround, considering the large share of the most polluting cars in the EU. It is difficult to see this as good news as newly sold diesel-cars will be around and polluting for many years to come. Hybrid cars are an own category and full of heavy additional material that allows 2 types of mobility. Tax reductions to push hybrid cars into the EU-market were very expensive for tax-payers and increasing inequality through co-financing rather expensive cars. 36,3%, the largest share, are still petrol-driven cars, with little awareness for further CO2 reductions. This is the slow evolution of the energy consumption pattern of the automotive industry in Europe.
On the energy production side there have been substantial efforts to invest in clean energy, too (IEA, 2023). With the world burning at several places already it is, after all, good news that investment in solar energy production on a global level has reached the level of investment in fossil fuels. Major drivers of this evolution are 1. China, 2. Europe and 3. The U.S. A. (unadjusted for population size) according to this investment report. Grids and storage investments rise equally to new heights, reflecting new distributional aspects of power provision within and between countries. We are in the race against the burning of our planet due to our shameless use of fossil fuels, worst in form of flying small jet planes. Besides the large company and state investments we need the spending and investment power of the masses to speed up the end of the fossil fuel age of polluting dinosaurs. Please do not replace one dinosaur (coal, oil, gas) with another one (nuclear). Too big to fail is maybe an economic rationale, but it does not withstand natural disasters (Fukushima), human failure (Tschernobyl) or war activity (Saporischschja).
(Figure source: IEA, Power investment in billion US$, 2019-2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/power-investment-2019-2023.

Posted on

Moped

Im Osten Deutschlands schwören viele Moped Enthusiasten auf ihre Schwalbe. Italienische Mopedliebhabende wollen immer nur Vespa fahren. In den 70er Jahren gab es bereits eine kleine platz- und energiesparende Alternative. Das war die Honda Dax. Als Moped zu haben mit 50cm³ Motor bis zum Motorrad mit 125cm³ bekannt als Monkey-bike. Der 4-Takt-Motor erlaubte geräuscharme, niedrige Drehzahlen. Dazu gab es eine Fliehkraftkupplung, besser bekannt als Halbautomatik mit Fußschaltung. Tanken mit Benzin ohne Ölbeimischung, was die Mobilität einfacher machte und mal vom Reservekanister getankt werden konnte. Reichweite ohne nachtanken, ça 70 km.
Im Juli 2023 habe ich noch einige Exemplare in einem autoberuhigten Ferienort an der Nordsee gespottet. Das Motorrad wird 2023 mit 1,5 Liter/100km ausgewiesen. Eher zeitgemäß ist die elektrische Variante, die sich sauber in der Garage oder direkt an der Solarzelle laden lässt. Das hat ungefähr ein halbes Jahrhundert gedauert. Umweltbewusstsein fällt nicht vom Himmel. Der Elektromotor bietet mit 800W. Das ist mehr Kraft als ein Pedelec. Da steht einem Ausflug zu zweit, nicht zu weit, nichts mehr entgegen. Bevor die Emotionen die Überhand nehmen, mache ich meinen täglichen Spaziergang.

Posted on

Roby übernehmen sie

Fachkräfte- und Arbeitskräftemangel spielen zurzeit bei großen Wachstumsphasen nach tiefem Wirtschaftseinbruch eine bedeutendere Rolle. Abgesehen von hausgemachten Problemen wie dem Brexit kämpfen immer mehr Wirtschaftssektoren mit dem Füllen von offenen Stellen. Lassen wir uns nicht blenden von den Heilsversprechen der Techgurus. Roboter in der Pflege sind in experimentalem Stadium. Automatische Kassensysteme in Supermärkten nur langsam bei der Einführung. Autonome Autos weit weg von einer größeren Markteinführung. Riesige Investitionen in Technik und parallele Verwendung von analogen und digitalen Systemen für eine längere Zeit erhöhen zunächst die Kosten. Selbstverständlich müssen wir die disruptiven Techniken und Marktentwicklungen mitgehen und uns oft an die Spitze der Bewegung setzen, aber der mittelfristige Übergang ist gestaltbar. Eine breite Basis an Grundkompetenzen ist die beste Beschäftigungsversicherung. Kurz- bis mittelfristig lässt sich auch in einfacheren Dienstleistungen bei entsprechender Erhöhung des Mindestlohns mehr als ein Grundeinkommen verdienen. Bis wir sagen werden: Roby übernehmen sie, läuft noch viel Wasser die Ahr hinunter. Mehr als viele Techniker, Raumplanende und Prognostiker für möglich hielten. Zusammen mit dem Trend, dass noch lange hybride Techniken Verwendung finden, wie in der Mobilitätsbranche, brauchen wir breite Kompetenzspektren.

FT 4.10.21
Posted on

Downsizing

Der erste Schritt hin zum Verzicht auf das Auto ist der Schritt des “downsizing”. Wie klein kann ein Auto sein für einen Urlaub im Gebirge mit Freunden. Die Mini oder Kleinstwagenklasse der Autoverleihfirmen vor Ort bietet für mittelgroße, schlanke Personen preiswerte Zweitürer! Selbst mit 4 Personen, Stöcken und Rucksäcken für eintägige Bergtouren war das im Kleinstwagen machbar. Mit etwas mehr Kondition hätten wir auch bereits die Anfahrt zu Fuß erledigen können. So viel nur für die Vorbereitung der nächsten Bergtouren. Nach der Bergtour ist vor der Bergtour und wir werden sicherlich besser vorbereitet in die nächste Bergwanderung aufbrechen. Hoffentlich dann ohne Unterstützung eines Verbrennungsmotors. Downsizing kann Spaß machen und Verlassen auf die eigenen Kräfte wirkt wie eine ökologische Antriebsfeder.  Mehr als 2 Jahre später ist dieser Blogeintrag zu einem programatischen Titel in “Le Monde” vom 24.3.2021 S.19 geworden.

Posted on

Disruption

Disruptive Wirtschaftspolitik ist in allen Lebensbereichen spürbar. Der Ökonom Joseph Schumpeter hat das Prinzip vor gut 100 Jahren beschrieben. Neben inkrementalen Neuerungen haben diruptive Neuerungen einen starken, ruckhaften Effekt auf Wirtschaft und Beschäftigung. Wir wissen, dass Tesla vor den Toren Berlins ein großes Automobil- und später auch Batteriewerk erbaut. Jetzt hat auch Daimler für seinen relativ zentralen und traditionsreichen Standort in Berlin-Marienfelde eine disruptive Zukunftsperspektive verhandelt. Sozialpartnerschaft kann solche disruptiven Veränderungen meistern unter Einbeziehung der Politik solange Finanzierungsspielräume vorhanden sind. Aus Gewinnen, bei verminderter Ausschüttung an Aktionäre, lassen sich selbst dramatische Umwälzungen bewerkstelligen. Stakeholder– statt Shareholderansätze sind dafür von Nöten. Die Info laut Tagesspiegel vom 4.3.2021 ist eine tolle Überraschung. Beschäftigungsgarantien als Teil von Tarifverträgen können sehr wertvoll sein und Vertrauen bilden bzw. erhalten.

Posted on

Industriepolitik

Die technologischen Entscheidungen in der Industriepolitik sind von großer Tragweite. Die Wege der modernen Industriegesellschaften sind gepflastert mit weitreichenden Fehlentscheidungen. Fehlentscheidungen aus gesellschaftlicher Sicht reihen sich an Verluste für den blauen Planeten. Einzelinteressen sind in diesen technologischen Entscheidungsprozessen zu oft zum Vorteil von Monopolen oder Oligopolen in der Vergangenheit ausgegangen.

Elektroautos gab es lange schon Quelle Spiegel Oktober 2020

Vor 100 und vor 30 Jahren gab es elektrische Prototypen für Individuellen Straßenverkehr. Gegen große Konzerne haben Nischenprodukte wenig Marktchancen sich zu etablieren. Überraschender Weise war das bereits bei der Entwicklung des Internets schon vergleichbar. In den „Comedies françaises“ ist ein anderes französisches Beispiel plastisch beschrieben worden. Solange wir Studierenden nur die Monopolrendite erklären, brauchen wir uns nicht zu wundern. Aufpassen „Winner takes all and forever“ ist dem kommunistischen Wirtschaften vergleichbar. In zu vielen Fällen erweisen sich die Monopolkommissionen als die BaFin im Wirecardskandal. … und dann singen wieder alle: Skandal um Rosi…

LeMonde August 2020

Mehr dazu:

Posted on

E-Car Market and Sharing

2020 is supposed to bring many new E-Cars to the market. Car-Sharing with the retreat of DriveNow and ShareNow from several cities with only moderate prospects. The Brussels Motor Show, also called Auto-Salon including the #WeAreMobility hall is still going strong right at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020. Some of the established car-sharing companies like Cambio.de or Cambio.be are not even present at such events. Poppy.be has few visitors as relatively unknown sharing-company yet. Not many more visitors I spotted at europcar.be with the attached scooter-sharing in Brussels and Antwerp.
The Auto-Salon gives a preview on E-Cars from most major companies. The E-go alternative has no presence there and competition of the big established companies from Europe and Japan take most of the space.
Most Consumers seem to want a practical solution to their mobility at a reasonable price, few seem to search for cars to show-off with. There is more “rational choice” around than in previous years. I should have done a survey to measure this, last time and this time round. This could be a worry to the industry as they are more used to sell “dream cars” than practical day-to-day mobility solutions.