Tag: Investment

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Repair Building

All buildings need repairs from time to time. For most of them the basic structure is solid enough so that isolation or maintenance will do. However, 100 years old buildings that have lived through 2 wars might have deep rooted deficiencies that are not visible at first glance. This can be observed in Berlin near the city center in a popular neighborhood with many visitors in „Schöneberg“ sometimes translated as „pretty hill“. The building at the crossroads seems to have been renovated only a few years ago, but the static of the building is so unstable that the city council has decided to block the whole crossing for circulation due to the danger of an imminent collapse of the building. The neighborhood has mixed feelings. It is great that the danger has been identified in time and blocking the road reduces the nuisance of traffic in the surroundings full of restaurants and cafes. The cover up of the repairs and renovation at the building is shocking as there appears to be just paint over basic structural faults. Construction work has failed to detect and prevent the static risks. An inspectorate that acts promptly to avoid bigger disasters is a societal asset.

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Opportunity Costs

Skiing in winter is a pleasure that has become more elitist. The downhill skiing has always been an expensive sport, but affordable school holidays gave the sport a more accessible touch. The cheaper version of long distance skiing or skating on larger trails involves much more endurance. The report of the French Cour des Comptes in 2024 questions the sense of the huge investment that is still devoted to save the pleasure of the few. Instead of investment to the benefit of the many this investment could put the money to a more sustainable, socially and ecological productive purpose. Installations could be used all year round rather than in the few weeks at best months with snow. It is remarkable that the court has highlighted this kind opportunity costs of such installations. Instead of investing in soon to be obsolete infrastructure at lower altitudes like water reservoirs and water canons, this money could already start the eventually necessary transition process. Each € spend is not only lost for the transition but might create additional environmental liabilities and damage. From economists it is to be expected that they mention competition in their arguments. Not all stations os skiing will survive. Put more dramatically, in the process of closing skiing at lower and middle level altitude, competition intensifies of who can survive. Public funds should not be misused in this endeavor. Lobbying is strong and political incumbents tend to favor the merit and legacy of digging for the white gold. Change of mind sets, investment narratives and decisions is tough. From much downhill skiing we might soon remember only the downward slope before the healthy aspects of climbing a slope takes the upper hand.

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Renewables

Renewable energy has reached for the 1sr time a share of more than 50% in Spain and Germany in 2023. This is an astonishing milestone in the energy transition of both countries. For Spain a report from Red Energy Espanola attributes the Spanish success story to the expansion of mainly wind energy (Link). The increase of renewable energy in Germany is due to a more rapid expansion of solar energy (Link). In any case a continued expansion of both forms of renewables allows to reduce the share of fossil fuel even more rapidly than previously estimated. Good news for the planet particularly to phase out energy from coal due to its highly polluting side effect. Countries with faster trajectories shall serve as examples that it is feasible to manage the energy transition also for large countries. Political instability might be a price worth paying considering the positive effects for future generations. Managing the transition in a just way which means to assist poorer households, ensures the respect of social policy targets at the same time. With this in mind the energy transition can be perceived by all as an opportunity rather than a threat to their welfare and wellbeing.

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Infrastructure

For some societies and cities it is a continuous question of how much resources we should invest in infrastructure. Access to funding is a major concern. The calculation of the viability of the project needs careful examination and evaluation. Societies have very different kinds of preferences and, interestingly, about time horizons for their deliberations.

There are examples that have been built to last a century and lasted 2000 years. Other worst scenario examples are built for just one World Expo and torn down afterwards. The Eiffel tower is such an example of the latter kind, but it lasted longer than 100 years by now. We should be thinking more about time horizons as it remains an often overlooked part of investment in infrastructure. The oldest city in Germany has many buildings from the Roman occupation that still characterize the city’s architecture. This remains an important economic factor for the city of Trier as an attractive location for tourists throughout the year. Only wars or negligence may cause severe deterioration if infrastructure has been built with an emphasis on its lasting value. The narrow-minded investment in downhill skiing like in the Swiss Alps is at best expected to last 20 years. For trees to grow there again it will take 50+ years. Sustainable investment will be viable and vital in many respects. High interest rates force us to recalibrate our societal and private s again. Taking into account a longer time frame for investment we indirectly build infrastructure that should last longer. Moving beyond short-termism is necessary, particularly in the field of investment in infrastructure.

Trier 2023-12
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Car Energy

The car industry sells more electricity-driven than diesel-cars for the first time in July 2023 (ACEA, 2023). This is a turnaround, considering the large share of the most polluting cars in the EU. It is difficult to see this as good news as newly sold diesel-cars will be around and polluting for many years to come. Hybrid cars are an own category and full of heavy additional material that allows 2 types of mobility. Tax reductions to push hybrid cars into the EU-market were very expensive for tax-payers and increasing inequality through co-financing rather expensive cars. 36,3%, the largest share, are still petrol-driven cars, with little awareness for further CO2 reductions. This is the slow evolution of the energy consumption pattern of the automotive industry in Europe.
On the energy production side there have been substantial efforts to invest in clean energy, too (IEA, 2023). With the world burning at several places already it is, after all, good news that investment in solar energy production on a global level has reached the level of investment in fossil fuels. Major drivers of this evolution are 1. China, 2. Europe and 3. The U.S. A. (unadjusted for population size) according to this investment report. Grids and storage investments rise equally to new heights, reflecting new distributional aspects of power provision within and between countries. We are in the race against the burning of our planet due to our shameless use of fossil fuels, worst in form of flying small jet planes. Besides the large company and state investments we need the spending and investment power of the masses to speed up the end of the fossil fuel age of polluting dinosaurs. Please do not replace one dinosaur (coal, oil, gas) with another one (nuclear). Too big to fail is maybe an economic rationale, but it does not withstand natural disasters (Fukushima), human failure (Tschernobyl) or war activity (Saporischschja).
(Figure source: IEA, Power investment in billion US$, 2019-2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/power-investment-2019-2023.

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Books

Some say, a book is a book, is a book. This is to reiterate the lasting effect a printed volume might have. Many books are a form of a documentation of facts. Creative writing in whatever form finds most of the time some way into a format of a book. For centuries books have facilitated the diffusion of myths and stories throughout societies including translated versions of the content. 2 aspects are constituent here (1) form and (2) content. Annual book fairs receive most attention for new content within more or less the same rectangular format. There are, nevertheless, interesting variations of the form to be discovered as well. Traditionally book binding was the art that gave shapes to the content. Images in form of film are yet another representation of the book content. All this is “dealt” with at the Frankfurt book fair #fbm23, particularly in form of dealing in and with copyrights. New forms of delivery of content, online or as e-book, have added to the variety of books. Pay as you go or as abonnement with monthly delivery is the old and maybe fashionable new way to digest abundant content. People trust in books. The format as book in general seems to remain an authoritative form to present content, irrespective of the truthful or fictional kind of the content. The more we live in insecure circumstances, the more we tend to be willing to hold on to a pile of paper nicely woven or clued. It is still a very powerful tool to guide imagination for all ages. It allows us to learn at our own rhythm as far as we are willing to go. We are, or seem to be, in control of the process as well as the likely outcome. And yet, the spice of life is the surprise. Book it.

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Gaslager

Der Gaspreis (TTF in Amsterdam) ist zum Ende Mai 2023 auf ein Tiefstwert von 23,50 € pro Megawattstunde zur Auslieferung einen Monat später gefallen. Der Unterschied zum Höchstpreis von ca 300 € übersteigt die Erwartungen der meisten Kunden. Das sind die Spekulanten und Zwischenhändler. Der Preis für die Endverbraucher bewegt sich weniger. Kartellbehörden in Europa müssen wachsam bleiben damit die Endverbraucher nicht zusätzlich zur Kasse gebeten werden. Gaslager für zivile und militärische Zwecke wurden vom Bund billig vor Jahrzehnten verkauft (Privatisiert) und sind jetzt wieder zu einer unverzichtbaren Infrastruktur geworden. Der Kapitalismus fällt immer wieder in seine eigenen Fallen durch exzessive Volatilität. Öffentliche Infrastruktur braucht langen Atem und sollte dazu dienen, die übertriebene Spekulation mit der zeit Grundversorgung der Bevölkerung zu vermeiden. Gaslager, Öllager, Wasserspeicher und Stromspeicher bei zentraler Stromerzeugung gehören dazu. Dezentrale Lösungen verstärken die Resilienz und Souveränität weiter. Europäische Solidarität hilft enorm, diese Herausforderungen zu meistern. Wichtig ist nicht nur der Einkaufpreis, sondern der Preis vor und nach Steuern sowie Unterschiede zwischen Industrie und Haushalten (Beispieldaten OECD 2014 für Jahr 2012, IEA Gas Market Report various years). Die ökologischen Sauereien rund um die Shale-gas Förderung in den USA haben uns wohl geholfen, besser durch die künstliche Verknappung von Gas für Europa durchzukommen durch die Erhöhung der gesamten Fördermenge. Ein weiteres “worst case szenario” zur Bekämpfung von Preisschocks. (Paper Link)

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Roby übernehmen sie

Fachkräfte- und Arbeitskräftemangel spielen zurzeit bei großen Wachstumsphasen nach tiefem Wirtschaftseinbruch eine bedeutendere Rolle. Abgesehen von hausgemachten Problemen wie dem Brexit kämpfen immer mehr Wirtschaftssektoren mit dem Füllen von offenen Stellen. Lassen wir uns nicht blenden von den Heilsversprechen der Techgurus. Roboter in der Pflege sind in experimentalem Stadium. Automatische Kassensysteme in Supermärkten nur langsam bei der Einführung. Autonome Autos weit weg von einer größeren Markteinführung. Riesige Investitionen in Technik und parallele Verwendung von analogen und digitalen Systemen für eine längere Zeit erhöhen zunächst die Kosten. Selbstverständlich müssen wir die disruptiven Techniken und Marktentwicklungen mitgehen und uns oft an die Spitze der Bewegung setzen, aber der mittelfristige Übergang ist gestaltbar. Eine breite Basis an Grundkompetenzen ist die beste Beschäftigungsversicherung. Kurz- bis mittelfristig lässt sich auch in einfacheren Dienstleistungen bei entsprechender Erhöhung des Mindestlohns mehr als ein Grundeinkommen verdienen. Bis wir sagen werden: Roby übernehmen sie, läuft noch viel Wasser die Ahr hinunter. Mehr als viele Techniker, Raumplanende und Prognostiker für möglich hielten. Zusammen mit dem Trend, dass noch lange hybride Techniken Verwendung finden, wie in der Mobilitätsbranche, brauchen wir breite Kompetenzspektren.

FT 4.10.21
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Zauberhaft

Allem Neuen wohnt ein Zauber inne. Das passende Zitat “Und jedem Anfang wohnt ein Zauber inne” von Hermann Hesse ist knapp kommentiert auf Wikipedia zu finden. Diese literarische Einleitung beschreibt recht gut, welche Verzückung bei start-ups zuweilen präsent ist. Nicht nur im Prozess des Gründens, sondern auch in den Kontakten mit Investoren und der ganzen Szene herrscht eine gewisse Extase vor. (Illustration W. Kandinsky 1923 Fröhlicher Aufstieg) Gut so, wenn das Start-up zu Beginn bereits eine Qual ist, Hände weg davon. Es wird oft nur schlimmer im weiteren Verlauf und Lebensverlauf. Selbst für enthusiatisch gestartete Unternehmende kommt allzu oft eine Ernüchterung, vielleicht sogar Sackgassen. Einen knappen Überblick bietet die Webseite “Deutsche Startups” oder “startbase“. Die großen Pleiten à la WIRECARD etc. lassen wir mal beiseite. Das kommentieren die Skandalmedien ausreichend, weil Quotenbringer. Mir geht es um die vielen kleinen zauberhaften Anfänge und persönlichen Lernkurven der Beteiligten. Julian Leitloff & Caspar Schlenk (Keinhorn) haben in ihrem Büchlein ein recht schonungsloses Bild gezeichnet, was es wirklich heisst, ein Start-up zu gründen. Vor allem braucht es ein dickes Fell und einen fast unbeugsamen Willen ständig “offen sein für Neues” und Lernbereitschaft.
Neben den biografischen Details der Gründenden bietet das eckige Büchlein aber auch einen Ausblick auf das Kompetenzspektrum für “Start-ups” und dann später hoffentlich “Grown-ups”. Verstreut über das Buch lassen sich Kompetenzen identifizieren: Buisiness Plan, Erstellen und Überarbeiten, Design Thinking, 3-D Druck, Buchhaltung, Marketing, Personal/Talent Management, Webpage Design und Interaktion über Social Media, Responsibility sowie Finanzen und Investmentkalkulus. Natürlich findet das alles im Team und dann im HomeOffice oder der Garage/Keller statt. Ist ne ganz schöne Packung und bitte nicht die “Deadlines” verpassen.

Das alles liest sich in dem Büchlein unterhaltsam und ohne Pathos der einen oder anderen Art. Aufgrund meiner soziologischen Forschungtradition war mir der Einstieg über das “Phänomen … Survivorship-Bias” (S.9) bedeutsam. Der Überlebendenbias besagt, dass wir meistens nur die Geschichten der Überlebenden (der Titanic) kennen, aber nicht die Geschichten der vielen hundert Ertrunkenen. Eine solche wird in dem Büchlein von den Gründenden erzählt, aber mit einem anderen Happy-End. Einmal Schiffbruch, hoffentlich kein Problem, Aufstehen und ein traumhaftes neues Schiff bauen ist das, was später einmal zählt.

Auszug aus dem Buch von Julian Leitloff & Caspar Schlenk (Keinhorn) S.12.