Tag: military

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Defense strategies

Technological developments of drones, aircrafts, rockets and satellites take a lot of time. In order to produce not only prototypes, but ready-to-use weapons, it needs advanced engineering competencies and capacities as well. The arrival of hypersonic rockets, that fly at the speed of 5 Mach necessitate a rethinking of defense strategies to be able to react in ever shorter time spells to external threats. The European Defence Fund intends to spend almost 3 billion € over 7 years to prepare our defense strategies in the EU for the next generation of lethal weapons.
On 2026-3-4 the Iran-regime made use of such a fast rocket, but it was possible to intercept its flight just in time by NATO-allies. Yes, unfortunately “rocket science” is back on the research agenda. In fact, this research has been ongoing across the world, just a bit more below the public radar.
Missions to the moon or mars have been intensified in recent years. This is not surprising or spectacular fact. For some it is surprising, that the number of countries (for example India) which are active in rocket science is increasing and spreading further across the globe. The multipolarity of the international political arena seems more evident in 2026-3.

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Interconnected multipolarity

In a very long-term anthropological perspective on the balance of power on the globe, the period that mankind lived on this globe has been characterised by an unconnected multipolarity. People lived in their more or less isolated communities before the Egyptian, Roman, Chinese, Australian, African or Japanese empires and people of the world became connected through new means of transport and communication networks.
In the 21st century the world wide web has broad us closer together and suddenly we realize that unipolarity or bipolarity might be options again through the unipolar dominance in airspace and radio frequencies. Even if unconnected multipolarity has been by far the longest period of mankind, the new developments in international politics resemble more a world of interconnected multipolarity than an American dominated unipolar or bipolar world of the Cold War period until the collapse of the Soviet Union. Stephen Walt (2026) and Raja Mohan (2026) discuss the concept of multipolarity in the same issue of Foreign Affairs (Vol. 105 Nr.2). Whereas Walt emphasises the USA as a “predatory hegemon”, Mohan describes the USA as being tempted and actually currently going it alone in international politics.
The current military image of world politics seems to be dominated by unipolarity again, maybe just before the longer run realities of economic, demographic, financial, trade and productivity developments, already reflected already in such data, take the upper hand again. The spectrum of the unipolar, bipolar, multipolar world privots around multipolarity in the long run, even if bipolar or unipolar intermezzi are part of the historical evolution.
(Image: view of Obzorno-geografceskij globus, Moskau 1994, Stabi Berlin 2026-1)

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Chess without Queen

It is perfectly possible to play chess without a player having a queen on the chessboard. This certainly gives an advantage to the opponent, but in case of a lack of an adequate strategy or being overly confident to win, the advantage can be compensated by the party who does not have a queen in the arsenal of weapons. The paper by Lissner & Warden (2026, p.109) on the new way of war following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022-2-24 states that “nuclear weapons have not given Moscow the coercive leverage many assumed they would.” Nuclear weapons hit the civilian population without differentiation the hardest, just as much as taking nuclear power plants as strategic war targets would do. What we have seen so far in Russia’s strategy is to use civil infrastructures of water and heating as targets within Ukraine as part of a kind of psychological warfare against the Ukrainian civil population. The more committed Ukrainian soldiers, even with the lack of a nuclear weapon, seem to hold the line against the Russian aggressor that so far has restrained from the nuclear option, if the Tschernobyl disaster has not been a precursor of a weaponisation of nuclear infrastructure.

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Future Conflicts

Since 2014-2-27 Russia has occupied the Crimean peninsula. This invasion had started with an undercover mission of unmarked soldiers to take full control of Crimea about 3 weeks later. Russia did not officially declare a war, although the intentions were identical to a land grabbing war. The western world did not react much to this violation of international law. Apparently, this contributed to the next cynical “special operation” by the Russian army to fully invade Ukraine on 2022-2-24 in a failed “Blitzkrieg”, a rapid invasion, which attempted and failed to annex the whole of Ukraine. According to Lissner & Warden (2026) the Russian invasion of Ukraine bears 4 lessons for future conflicts: (1) the risk of using nuclear weapons is real, (2) in addition to nuclear options, prolonged and very destructive conventional wars remain an option, (3) escalation thresholds emerge and evolve over the duration of the conflict, (4) allies and partners in war keep adjusting their risk tolerance as well as escalation options. The authors argue from a US perspective and add a practical comment: “The USA cannot go this alone, but should coordinate closely with allies and partners in time before another conflict arises. Multilateralism seems a valid option and even more so as we move into a multipolar power play on the global scale propelled by AI.
(Image: Musée Orsay, Paris – Archer, Bogenspannende)

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Peace and war again

“If you want peace, prepare for war”. This is one of the famous citations from Vegetius an early Roman general. For centuries we have been aware that peace and war are not opposites in a broader sense. Preparation for war can resemble war, if a country’s economy is already heavily turning towards production of weapons and intensifies research in dual use technologies. Political terminologies that shift to a vocabulary using more belligerent language may also be interpreted as a early signs of a shift in balance between peace and and early warnings on war. 4 years of the war of Russia on Ukraine territory have left traces in our vocabulary as well as budgets devoted to the preparation of a defense in Europe.
More countries of the EU state openly what is in their “national interest”, as if they were ready to go to war (Charap & Haukkala 2026) to in case major elements of the national interest were endangered. In going back to Clausewitz’s writing, a long historical line can be drawn from the Crimean War(s) to Putin’s imperialist war of 2014 and 2022 trying to capture Ukrainian territory, irrespective of enormous human losses.
Another lesson from these historical events might be: Let’s not forget to prepare for peace during the hot conflict.

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Short circuit electrification

The electrification of the automotive industries is well under way. However, there is still the resistance of a few warriors from a village called “Gaulle” that fight the imperial forces that dominate these markets. The abundance of cars with batteries and electricity-based traction keeps growing, More utility vehicles shift over to this technology as well. With India and China making significant shifts in this direction, the market has made a significant technological shift until the beginning of 2026. The share of hybrid or solely electric power in cars has risen sharply, but a small segment (10% of diesel engines seems to survive or is only slowly petering out in the coming decade. The publication by Béla Galgóczi (editor) demonstrates the challenges this poses to the companies, their employees and the automotive sector as a whole, as it comprises a large amount of employment and technologies in the traditional supply chain as well. The need for a substantial and costly shift has started, but the downsizing of companies, as electric cars need far fewer pieces than conventional ones, could offer an opportunity, if the skilled employees can be converted to other productive use.
A single sector study offers a lot of “deep” insights into a sector, but the opportunities and openings in other not to distant sectors tend to be overlooked. The European sovereignty in the area of military, standardised technology, which is also still based on many precision and metal components might come as a rescue not only to Ukraine, but to Europe as a whole.

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Failure time

In mechanical as well as medical components it is interesting to know about the usually hidden failure time of a product. The failure time simply means probability the component will seize to function properly or altogether. Usually, this probability of failure increases with the duration and the intensity of use. We might know this from cars or heating systems, but airplanes and heart valves obey the aame basic statistical models. Programmed failure time is a nuisance, which works against all efforts of sustainability, Over-engineered products would work much longer than the actual use case. Locomotives with steam engines that still function well even today might serve as an example of the latter case. The issue becomes a bit more complex if we consider not only the product but each single component. Maximizing profits often leads to taking risks with failure times or failure rates over a fixed time (a more general term than the guaranteed lifetime of a product). This sounds rather abstract thinking, but in modern military equipment the consideration of failure time, self-destruction or destruction by enemy play an important role again. Failure time of military equipment has moved to the forefront of issues of equipment and is part of strategic planning, like it or not.  

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Foul-smelling dictatorship

The animal world is full of interesting strategies of how to turn over a foul-smelling ruler or dictatorship. The ant queen of “lasius orientalis” infiltrates a colony of “lavius flavus” to spray the incumbent queen with a foul-smelling substance which turns the worker ants against their own queen and eventually kills the queen. This is a rather intelligent strategy to trick the defense system of rival colonies and prepare a takeover of a whole colony to install your own reign.
This may constitute a stark warning for democracies just as much as a threat to persistent dictatorships. In the age of the not so social media there is a lot of foul-smells produced. Beware of the risks to democracy as open societies are much easier to infiltrate than closed societies or dictatorships. (Link)

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Napoleon legacy

It is huge historical project to try to summarize the legacy of Napoleon Bonaparte. AI is by design less hesitant to come up with any length of a summary statement some with good references on which the statement is based. In combination with a visit at Fontainebleau and a first hand impression of the environment of the autocratic ruler, the remainders like the introduction of a Civil Code to guide also administrations to lawful conduct, we still see influences of this legal innovation in many other countries across the globe. The recognition of Jews as equal citizens and to allow equal access to property and many professions have been influential across Europe mostly in occupied territories. Military service for Jews in Napoleon’s army was another consequence, which spread into the Prussian army and the 1st world war. It is in the 21st century that we see shifts towards more authoritarian governance styles spreading again, we did not want to see this happen until Russia‘s war in Ukraine. (Image: La Chair de la forêt, Frénésie des Géants by  Wang Keping Fontainebleau 2025-8)

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Archers destroyed

In the attempt to explain modern warfare to people, the Roman and medieval languages are staging a comeback. The archers have found their way from warfare into art history and back again. George Barros explains recent defensive actions by Ukrainian military forces as the strategy to put the archers out of power rather than the arches.
Destroyed or unfit air planes can no longer launch missiles or bombs. The Russian reserves are, however, fairly numerous, but the air strikes on the modern archers have demonstrated an astonishing military intelligence on the Ukrainian side. The technological advances of the Ukrainian military services may shift the balance or raise the costs of war to Russia, considerably.

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Draft Lottery

For decades the “intergenerational effects of the Vietnam draft on risky behaviors” has been overlooked. Deza and Mezza (2025) identified several changes in parenting styles (PS) due to existence of a draft lottery. PS like uninvolved, permissive, authoritarian become more frequent. Similarly, risky behaviors of their children like smoking, drinking and drug abuse tend to increase. According to this new evidence on an old strategy to recruit military personnel the effects are not only directly on the persons drafted, but have lasting consequences onthe next generation as well. This increased overall the burden of going as well as preparing for war in the societies concerned. In view of the Russian aggression on Ukraine territory the consequences for both countries are considerable and shall be transmitted to future generations as well. Even neighboring countries fear and feel the heat of recruitment for armed conflict.

 

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War of drones

The use of drones in warfare is not new in 2025. However, the news reported in the WSJ 2025-05-05 that sea drones from Ukraine with U.S. adapted missiles downed 2 Russian jet fighters made headlines. Compared to jet fighters such drones carrying missiles are a rather cost-effective alternative in warfare. The speed of jets compared to drones made such successful attempts rather unlikely. The information that infrared technology can achieve such identification of targets and guiding missiles is another innovation of the Ukrainian military technology.
Technology is well known to be a game changer in warfare for centuries or across the whole military history. Adaptations of defense strategies will allow Ukraine to hold against the Russian aggression albeit limited financial resources. The defense of air space is one of the crucial elements for Ukraine to deter Russia from moving further ahead through the continuation to increase the costs of war to Russia.
Following a fast moving object and transforming it into a target is an astonishing accomplishment.

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Defence Spending

As in research there are many dual use products, which can be part of defence spending. Robotics in production or rockets to launch satellites for telecommunication are such examples. Much less known to the public is the amount of military spending that goes into medical developments that benefit both the military as well as the civil population. Countries build a whole ecosystem round the provision of medical services for defence purposes , which consists not only of a sufficient number of qualified persons, but also companies that provide specialised products. Most of them have civil applications as well after minor adaptations.
Oxygen provision was a prominent example of a product that has civil and military uses in treatment of respiratory infections or contaminations. A mobile transportable operation table is another element of daily rescue services as well as potential use in situations of conflict, just like anesthesia machines. An increase in spending on such infrastructure and the necessary long-term training of persons operating and maintaining these medical applications take time and considerable financial resources.
The current debate in Europe and NATO neglects the considerable time delays in production and provision of the equipment. Research on “Skill Needs in OECD countries” has shown the substantial delays between sudden skill needs and the time to train high-skilled persons.
The International Review of the Armed forces Medical Services is a journal dedicated to publish up-to-date information on needs of medical products and persons trained to use them in special emergencies. The need to safe lives in extreme and dangerous conditions needs preparation of thousands of specialists. Of course we hope that such an incidence will not happen. The persons and material have an obvious potential to serve the civilian population in more peaceful times as well. The unfortunate “hog cycle” in skill provision is not a problem for dual use products or services.
(Image: edited extract of a mobile operation table)

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Ukraine Poets

Difficult times have a long history in Ukraine. However, literature and poetry have flourished since the Ukrainian independence from the Soviet domination in 1991. Periods of hunger under Stalin, Nazi crimes in the 2nd World War, Tschernobyl radiation, Annexation of Crimea and now Russian war on Ukrainian territories, the endurance of hardship is part of Ukrainian culture and society. This has created a strength of resistance and resilience which is exemplary for all countries. The democratic countries stand firmly on Ukraine‘s side and support not only military defense efforts, but also artists and poets in such difficult times.
A collection of translated poems from Ukrainian into English has been published in 2027/2018, showing the horrors of the large scale war that was to come a few years later. In fact from the Ukrainian perspective the annexation of Crimea was the first war initiated by Russia although the Western world did not want to see this as a brutal aggression, which it was. The poems in the anthology are available online for everyone to read and understand that war changes personalities. Suddenly, dying of old age becomes a blessing as many young soldiers and people die on the battlefields (Died of Old Age, by Lyuba Yakimchuk translation by Anatoly Kudryavitsky) .
7 years after the translations where published the poems have kept their sorrow and the reminder for us to continue our support for Ukraine‘s fight for democracy, independence and freedom of speech and the arts. (Image: Front: from War Diaries, Brussels 2025, shown in Gallery of Katarzyna Napiorkowska).

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Cumulative Mandates

Since 2010 and with 18 volumes the documentation of perpetrators assistants free riders during the Nazi rule in Germany has been valuable and reliable source of information (Kugelberg Verlag). The book series defines the perpetrators as the persons excuting crimes themselves or were in command of those who committed the crimes or gave orders to do so. It is not surprising to find evidence of many crimes, but rather that it took such a long time until the documents were published and the descendants were confronted with the facts and the difficult heritage. There are still many who undertake all efforts to deny the facts or try to minimize the guilt of perpetrators. With the real dangers of new right-wing extremism on the rise across Europe and even beyond, it becomes more important to uncover the strategies and biographies of the perpetrators. Certainly the members of the SS were executives and in command of atrocities, so-called NSDAP party officials were also mostly convinced followers of Nazi doctrines and instrumental in the implementation of crimes. Additionally, several professions (line soldiers or medical doctors) were key in the process to ensure the power of the totalitarian regime until the final days. Some persons were cumulating roles and became thereby inescapable spiders in a web of control and crimes. The lessons for today consist in hindering excessive cumulation of mandates, political, professional, military and in other work or civil society related functions. Distribution of power is one form to safeguard the survival of democratic structures.

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Democracy in Korea

For all scholars of the theory of democracy the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville (1835) “De la démocratie en Amérique” are a major point of reference. The comparison of the democracy in America with the French king and both constitutions reveals comparative strengths and weaknesses of political systems. Korea after the 4th of December 2024 is yet another warning of what are the dangers to democratic systems. The attempted “coup d’état” by the president of Korea together with a former defense minister and several hundred soldiers has failed due to the speedy reaction of the elected members of parliament and an attentive and reactive public (Korea Times reports).
Tocqueville (p.130-131, French edition online) states, beyond the separation of powers (John Locke), the importance of the right to nominate key positions in a society also public opinion for the survival of democracy. Modern social media have increased the “reaction time” of public opinion and the “time to action” if need be. The combination of both elements of public opinion ensured that parliamentarians in Korea rushed to parliament and used their potentially last chance to vote against the imposed martial law, which started to seal off parliament already.
Several lessons for democratic systems derive from this. Separation of power remains key for democracy. The distribution of state functions on many shoulders under the control of parliament are essential. Legal mechanisms, in case of a spontaneous attack on the system, have to be able to react fast in order to avoid spreading fake news about legality/illegality of interventions. Public opinion, the people at large, should have their opinions distributed rapidly as well. This is necessary even beyond the traditional media of TV, radio and print. In Korea 2024 the attempted “coup d’état” tried also to block traditional media and prominent figures of the opposition with high power of influencing and reach on social media.
Tocqueville stated already that kings are threatened by revolution. Elected presidents have to fear public opinion. A lesson still valid beyond the US., France and Korea in the 21st century.
(Image: joint exhibition at “Traditional Korean Painting”, Korean Cultural Centre Brussels, 2024)

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Ballistic Missiles

Ballistic missiles have been studied as part of physics for centuries. The basic mechanics in gravitational fields like on earth are well known. Longer reach intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) have been built by several countries for defensive or offensive purposes. China had demonstrated to master the science and technology of rockets since its latest launch of a ICBM in 1980. In 2024-9 China has demonstrated again, it is still capable to launch such missiles with long distance range (Japan Times 2024-9-25). This is both a technological task, but much more a geopolitical issue as a reminder to be taken seriously on the international political arena currently. Technological capabilities and capacities have regained geopolitical strategic importance as attempts to shift the global balance of power, which is undergoing multiple challenges or even changes. Flagging technological options is not only important to demonstrate own military strength, but to present a country as a potential strategic partner of global reach. Window dressing using weapons is much more oriented towards other countries (buyers of weapons mainly) than of relevance for Chinese society. Strategic alliances seek strategic partners. China is likely to receive more attention in the 21st century than before.
(Image: extrait de Gustave Courbet: La vague, 1870, Berlin SPK)

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Women Advisors

Contrary to many men and clergy advising noble governors, many of them famous as womanizers, there is a long tradition of women as advisors as well. The first woman that received high reputation as advisor is “Christine de Pizan“. She was born in Italy and migrated to France with her father who was a scientist and advisor to  “Charles V” as medical doctor and astrologist, but who died soon after the move to the French court. With the access to a unique library at the time Christine de Pizan benefited from the best of knowledge and her literary and scientific competences made her famous later on. She could even be compared to Clausewitz as a well known writer on war strategies, but has a much broader literary reach compared over centuries.
Christine de Pizan became a writer in her own right, publishing under her own name in the late 14th century already and not only in literary work, but in fields previously thought to be domains of male writers only. One of her writings “Livre des fais d’armes et de chevalerie” is a testimony of her political and strategic thinking and advice. It remains a unique piece of a woman as advisor in military affairs published in 1410. The translation into “Alemannisch” (1460) highlights the importance of her strategic advice beyond France.
Her literary excellence has been widely appreciated not the least in her praise of Jeanne d’Arc in her “Ditiè”, the poem in honor of Jeanne d’Arc. (source with translation). Christine de Pizan also wrote on peace (Le livre de la paix” 1412 and the “Livre du chemin de longue étude“, today we would translate it as a book on lifelong learning.
(Source: Zimmermann, Margarete, 2005: Minervas jüngere Schwester: Die politische Schrifstellerin Christine de Pizan, Stabi Berlin, KulturStiftung der Länder Patrimonia 265 und SPK.
(Image: Extrait Christine de Pizan im Gespräch mit Minerva. BNF, Paris, Ms. fr 603, fol.21r)