Fiscal Union

European Integration is slow and hard to come by. For others it is moving too fast (Brexit). Cultural diversity is a real asset of the EU. The economy or the economies are powerful on an international scale. Nevertheless, the diversity concerning the tolerance of fiscal deficits is still widely spread across the Member States of the EU (see image below). Some states seem to play it cool and run relatively high deficits compared to the EU averages. In OECD comparisons most of the above average fiscal deficits are closer to or even below OECD averages over time (link to pdf-file OECD, 2024). Within the EU differences in government expenditure as % of GDP or the indicator of Gross public debt according to the Maastricht Criteria range from 20% to 160% as percentage of GDP. This entails a different level of resilience to future crises. After we managed to leave the previous 3 crises (financial, Covid-19, energy) it is time to prepare for what might come next in terms of challenges. Preparing public deficits to be able to soften economic shocks is essential to be able to sustain yourself and support others. We seem to be a bit off-target to coordinate fiscal deficits across the Union. Eastern and Northern countries have suffienct scope to support expansionist fiscal policies, be it in the realm of a defence union or to address climate change. Southern Europe will find it more difficult to raise additional funds to prepare now for future challenges. Fiscal deficits might even be not only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one as well. If we compare Japan with a deficit running at 240% with South Korea with 50% Asia is showing even larger diversity in terms of fiscal preparedness.
An economist’s stance on fiscal policy and fiscal union might depend much more on her/his region or country of origin than economists might want to believe.
Images: OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c671124e-en. p.17.