Author: KS

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AI in Central Banks

Yes of course, Central Banks will use AI, and some do so already (Kazinnik and Brynjolfsson, 2025). Beyond the standard application of AI by its employees, there are many potentials to use AI to analyse and publish data at a faster rate or in order to detect financial crimes. Similarly, data collection based on webpage harvesting might yield new indicators of inflation, expenditure for environmental risks (heat waves, flooding etc.) earlier and in addition to the normal set of indicators. Hence, Central banks might be better and faster in forecasting inflationary tendencies using more AI tools in their daily routines. Of course, it is difficult to predict a disruptive tariffs policy of a major economic player in the world economy, but the calculation of more, even hallucinatory scenarios become more feasible. It is feasible to weigh overall risks of different scenarios to the economy.
(Image: Celtic coins, Museum of the Belgian National Bank)

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AI earnings effects

In the first few years of wider adoption of AI in an economy, there is the expectation that this might lead to substantial productivity gains for enterprises which use it as well as for employees who are early adopters of the relatively new technology. The study by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by  Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025) showed that so far there are no significant earnings effects for employees. Based on millions of recent payroll data from US companies productivity gains have not trickled through to the paycheck in terms of monthly salaries. Participation of staff in a company’s overall turnover or profit might change this as time evolves. For civil servants the adoption of AI might mean increases in cases dealt with as some tasks can be executes faster than before with the use of AI.
The evidence points to employment effects of AI rather than earnings effects so far. A hypothesis is yet unresolved: senior employees using AI might employ fewer junior workers at entry positions, if these “hallucinating” young professionals can be replaced by hallucinating AI. In science the hallucination has sometimes lead to disruptive new approaches and findings. It is a tough choice to pick the young entrants with high productivity potential and eventually high remuneration for this in terms of labor earnings.

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AI employment effects

The first robust empirical evidence about employment effects of AI in the USA has been published by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by  Chen, Chandar and Brynjolfsson (2025). A previous paper by Wang and Wang (2025) highlighted the comparative advantage of persons who use AI in their work compared to others and the authors coined the term “learning by using technology”.  The prediction of the model was that there might be job losses of more than 20% in the long run and half of this already in the first 5 years of the introduction of the technology. The Stanford economists have estimated with real world data these effects in the USA and find quite surprisingly that the negative employment effects of AI have the strongest impact on young labor market entrants with few years of labor market experience. Middle-aged and more senior employees seem to benefit from “tacit knowledge” about the work, which is more difficult to replace with AI, at least for the time being of the early days of AI. This evidence is based on recent payroll data from the largest payroll processing firm “ADP” in the USA which has firms overrepresented from the manufacturing and services industries as reported in another paper  (Firm size maybe another source of bias).  However, the effect that youth 22-25 years of age suffered the most calls into question the common belief that older workers are more likely to suffer the consequences as during in the rise of the digital economy around the year 2000. (AI Image created with Canva)

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Vacation or Workation

Vacation or Workation, that is the question. Remote work and outsourcing of work have  created the opportunity for more people to work from distant places. Logging into the firm’s or the administration’s secured intranet enabled to work from where you prefer to work rather than on the premises of the firm. After the technological shift to enable secure remote work, the acceptability of remote work is a societal issue. Whereas bosses worked or had to work while on travel for many decades, the same has become feasible due to reduced costs for many other employees as well. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced another shift in the need to accept and advance remote work as well. Taken together the option of a “workation” instead of a vacation became equally more feasible. The borderline between remote work, “workation” and vacation has become more and more blurred. It remains to be seen, whether these options enhance an outsourcing trend by firms or whether  more “back-sourcing” or “in-sourcing” will be the consequence.
Employers with their associations and employees with their trade union representatives have a need to include such topics in their bargaining agenda in addition to pay, health and safety, as well as working time adaptations.
(Image created with Canva 2025-9)

 

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Vacation money

The budget for a vacation, depending on your destination, is subject to exchange rate adjustments. If there are several months between planning and traveling the exchange rate like between the US $ and the Euro € has fluctuated recently by 10% in favor of the €uro. Nice for those receiving salaries in € and who spend their vacation in a region using the US $ as main payment currency. International tourists frequently calculate in $ and therefore might find Europe a bit more expensive than before the return of Donald Trump in the USA.
However, for all those who live in the Member States of the Euro-area and take their vacation there as well, they no longer think in exchange rate risks to their vacation budget. Additionally, there are almost no risks to be subject to fake money transactions like in unfamiliar currencies.
In the Euro area we can use for example backlight to make sure a 50€ bank note is a real one. Happy vacation! 

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Vacation Waves

One of the most popular choices for a vacation is in connection with waves. There seems to be something mystical or romantic related to waves, which touches many people irrespective of their background and across continents. This goes much beyond what we know about waves from physics or maths and this is already a fascinating scientific story in itself. Sailing adepts will be able to tell marvellous tales about waves, too. Coming back from a vacation near the sea or a lake, you surely may add another story to the already rich inventory of waves in art or literature. The imagery about waves started early as well, ever since sailors started to conquer the world.

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Vacation time

According to statistics from INSEE about 20% of the French population reported in 2024 that they could not not go on vacation due to financial reasons. Another additional 20% did not go on vacation for other reasons based on another survey mentioning other reasons, like psychological or logistical issues as being of overriding importance.
Openness to new experiences is a well researched concept of psychology and vacations can be a challenging time for established convictions. Meeting people from other cultures particularly allows to reflect on one’s own values and behavior. Some people may just want to avoid being challenged or even potentially destabilized. Destination time and place involve choices and decision making often within families or with friends.
The topic of vacation is much like an evolutionary process. Towards the end or some time after the vacation time, there is” evaluation time” and the preparation of the next experience. 

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500 years Motherhood

The history of art is full of depictions of motherhood. The catholic church has largely contributed to this phenomenon. Sandro Boticelli created in 1478 his painting of Maria and the child surrounded by singing angels. As Maria is said to know about the tragic fate of her child, her facial expression is rather sad or apprehensive than full of joy. The public acclaim has lasted already for more than 500 years. The women and people who sympathize with this depiction seem to share some of the worries about the future of both mother and child. Apparently, this has not changed over the course of the centuries. In the 21st century such concerns still have a co-determination effect on women to lead to lower fertility rates in most parts of the world. Fertility depictions in art history might serve as early indicator of behavioral changes. Some take centuries to play out. Technological,  medical devices or social policies can amplify such seminal trends. (Image: Sandro Boticelli and disciples , 1478, Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

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Raffael Madonna

„Mary and the child“ has been the success painting of Raffael around the years of 1500. 3 variants on this topic are presented at the Gemäldegalerie Berlin. Each pose varies only slightly, but each tells a very different story. The Madonna changes the regard from beyond the child, on the child, then to another child. An interesting sequence as such, which puts the relationship with the child also in perspective. The child develops over the sequence from the fast learner into the person with „power grip“ to the one that is spreading benevolence. The different stages of the life course are somehow taking place within a short period of the child. (Image: Raffael, Mary with Child, Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

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Gentileschi Gentileschi

There are 2 Gentileschis that entered the history of art. Orazio the father and his daughter Artemisia. Orazio painted many scenarios based on the bible. The incestuous relationship between Lot and his daughters is difficult one to portray and to do justice to the moral concerns involved. Artemisia, similarly, did not shun away from difficult stories of the bible and added a personal twist to these stories in putting her face into the biblical depiction. The cruelty of the stories become more explicit this way and maybe also her deviant position to the biblical narrative. (Image: Orazio Gentileschi‘ (1622/23) „Lot with his daughters“ Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

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Caravaggio Gentileschi

The „Gemäldegalerie“ in Berlin features in the permanent exhibition the famous Caravaggio painting of „Cupid as Victor“ (1601) in the same room with  Orazio Gentileschi‘ (1622/23) „Lot with his daughters“. The paintings show the same technique of painting with the stunning effects of light and shade. Gentileschi‘s own daughter became equally successful as painter applying the same technique and maybe even more recognized as her father. Berlin and Paris jointly allow to trace interesting new perspectives on the history of art from a gender perspective. The male domination in art of the 16th and 17th century was pervasive, but Artemisia Gentileschi a formidable exception. (Image: Caravaggio „Cupid as Victor“, 1601, Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

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Age of maturity

The bronze statue by Camille Claudel „L‘âge mûr“ is her most famous works. It is part of the exhibition Claudel & Hoetger in the “Alte Nationalgalerie“ in Berlin. Usually the statue is part of the permanent exhibition in the „Musée d‘Orsay“. With the depiction of different stages of the life course and somehow revealing the emotional trajectories of the persons the scene of human joy and tragedy becomes tangible beyond her personal fate. The scenario and arrangement in the Alte Nationalgalerie allows to focus on this particular work with an emphasis on the trajectory and the evolutionary path. A unique arrangement does better justice to the particular message of the artist than being surrounded by too many other works of art. (Image: extract of Camille Claudel‘s „L‘âge mûr“ in showroom Alte Nationalgalerie, 2025-8)

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Claudel & Hoetger

It is well known that artists joined other artists and groups to get inspired. The entangled relationship between Camille Claudel and Auguste Rodin has become a special example of the tricky relationship between learning and co-creation or inspiration. The role of galerists in building a reputation for artists is less well understood. The “Alte Nationalgalerie“ in Berlin opens up this black box a bit through juxtaposition of Camille Claudel, Bernhard Hoetger as disciples of Auguste Rodin. The influences are rather obvious, yet each disciple developed her/his unique style. The emancipation was not without frictions. The galerist Eugène Blot organized a joint exposition of both disciples in 1905 in Paris, which is partly reproduced in Berlin 2025. Great work by the curators of the exhibition Yvette Deseyve and Sintje Guericke who managed to bring together unique sculptures from 3+ museums and a great explanation of the links between the artists as well as the proximity of ateliers. (Image: view of showroom in Alte Nationalgalerie Berlin, Claudel & Hoetger 2025)

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Jewish Heritage

In the Germany of the 21st century, we have to dig deeper into history to understand the Jewish heritage due to the horrific terror of the Nazi-regime and it’s millions of supporters. The traces can be found in some historic photographs even in the countryside. Marie-Louise Conen and Hilde Weirich (2010) have thoroughly studied such documents for the Moselle village of Lösnich. The little annex to a house served as a Synagogue (image below). The village has a history of Jewish settlements which extended to neighboring villages as well. Interestingly, the heritage of Napoleon’s occupation of the Rhine and Moselle regions brought equally for all men (not yet women) and the separation of the state and religion making Jewish life, property acquisition more easy. The tolerance of the 19th century was then reversed by Nazi Germany again. History is present in many places, where we do not seem to expect it nowadays. 

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Napoleon legacy

It is huge historical project to try to summarize the legacy of Napoleon Bonaparte. AI is by design less hesitant to come up with any length of a summary statement some with good references on which the statement is based. In combination with a visit at Fontainebleau and a first hand impression of the environment of the autocratic ruler, the remainders like the introduction of a Civil Code to guide also administrations to lawful conduct, we still see influences of this legal innovation in many other countries across the globe. The recognition of Jews as equal citizens and to allow equal access to property and many professions have been influential across Europe mostly in occupied territories. Military service for Jews in Napoleon’s army was another consequence, which spread into the Prussian army and the 1st world war. It is in the 21st century that we see shifts towards more authoritarian governance styles spreading again, we did not want to see this happen until Russia‘s war in Ukraine. (Image: La Chair de la forêt, Frénésie des Géants by  Wang Keping Fontainebleau 2025-8)

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Fontainebleau time

In the Chateau Fontainebleau time seems to pass with a different speed compared to the busy times in Paris. Taking a stroll at the park, boating or horseback riding along the endless paths contributes to the perception of wide, open space and a different space-time experience. The measurement of time shown on a fine craftsmanship of a clock in the castle highlights the fact that there is more to time than just seconds and minutes. The hunch of the time that there is maybe a cosmic time beyond our calendar is a precursor of later scientific discoveries. Time in the early 19th century of Napoleon’s reign had just been restored from calendar of the French revolution. Whether time is counted as 2×12 hours or in 24 hours was also a matter of politics rather than rational decision making. The impressive clock in the Chateau Fontainebleau shows ambitious as much as awareness of defining and counting time, just like an absolute ruler might conceive it. 

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Fontainebleau walks

In the Fontainebleau gardens it is easy to reach your daily walking goals of 7000 a 10000 steps/day. Upon entry into the park you walk around the small lake. Towards the far end of the lake you’ll discover a long waterway which takes you beyond your usual walking distance due to the calm and great surroundings. The forests around the Fontainebleau gardens are another great walking or hiking exercise. You might find companions all along the trails. Just take enough water and food with you as there are no shops around, just you and nature. A bit of advance planning is necessary to make it a great experience. 

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Fontainebleau garden

The garden of Fontainebleau is huge. The design by “Le Notre” is splendid in its combination of trees, greens and water reserves. Beyond walking in the park you may enjoy a horse ride ora  tour in a carriage, some even today. Boating is an additional amenity rarely available at other castles. In the Belvedere in the middle of the water basin romantic or secretive diplomatic conversations might take place. Politics and diplomacy have always needed special locations to prepare decisions. This is a historical constant. 

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Fontainebleau library

The “Galerie de Diane” in Fontainebleau has been built during Napoleon’s reign. It hosts the library with a large collection of books. The function of the books seems to be more to intimidate the persons passing by rather than ready for inspection. The globe at the entrance reflects the ambition of the ruler. The fact that you have to walk some stairs upwards increases the impression to be little compared to this universe of knowledge. It is great that libraries have flipped this perspective and today we study the period of Napoleon’s reign with our democratic values in mind. The top-down approach was the incarnation of Napoleon’s style of government. Despite the revival of such governance styles in the 21st century across the globe, they are unlikely to last for more years than Napoleon’s fate. A simple reason for this may be the only representative or intimidating role of knowledge in such forms of governance rather than an open mind approach. 

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Fontainebleau Throne

The French history is full of kings and emperors who have ruled the country. The Chateau Fontainebleau has the longest history of kings who lived there and held office, a pre-modern version of “home office”. The most remarkable and distinguished furniture of a king is the throne reserved for office hours. Napoleon created a special throne room at Fontainebleau which is also the only one preserved in its original form until today. It is just one of the home office rooms of the emperor. The antechambers, council room and study had to be passed before to reach the ear and audience of the emperor. The history of the home office and thrones have been intertwined ever since. 

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Paris Sorbonne

The history of the university on the left bank of “La Seine” dates back to 1257 when Robert de Sorbon an advisor to Louis IX was asked to create a unifying structure of several colleges which provided room and board already. The location on the left bank in Paris allowed these colleges to escape the religious doctrines and archbishop who dominated the right bank. The choice of the name of the advisor rather than the King was already showing early signs of independence which was cherished by generations of students and professors. The Colleges had individual names like “Collège des Bernardins” or “Collège de Navarre” and operated under the title of “La Sobonne”. The “Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet” shows an early design of the Collège de Navarre. Independent thinkers and writers were formed there who became very influential later on in their careers. Thomas d’Aquin was one of them.

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Paris Olympics history

The 2024 Paris Olympic Games will go down in history as the event that has achieved to put Olympic Games and Paralympic Games on an equal footing. At least this is the message the  museum of the history of Paris tries to transmit. In the “Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet” we find a vase from the Games from 1924 in Paris next to the 2 Olympic torches, one for the Paralympics and one for the Olympics 2024. Both torches are the same only a different logo on them, same message, same spirit. The impact of these games is likely to set an example for many years to come and other hosts of the Games will be measured against this benchmark. Making history is one thing, taking care of the posterior image another one. Paris has taken of this as well.

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liberté urbanité

In the museum of the history of Paris “Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet” we find a special place devoted to the commemoration of the terror attacks in Paris in the Bataclan event location and the office of the journal “Charlie Hebdo” (see image below”. The skateboard on the bottom left of the wall raises the value of “urbanité” next to liberté, égalité, fraternité. The attack of an urban living style with youth going out as they like and journalists and caricaturists speaking their minds freely had been attacked, but continues nevertheless. This statement is part of the Paris state of mind. 

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Le Brun Selfie

The great painter and decorateur of the French monarch Louis XIV was Charles Le Brun. He was careful about the way he wanted to be remembered in history. His late 17th century self portrait is exposed in the Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet. Rightfully put in front of elegant red “tapisserie”, the selfie is remarkable for its attention to details. The hair is drawn with high precision and not a single one seems out of place. The painter does not focus on the person in front of him, but rather on some detail next to or behind the depicted Le Brun. The dress chosen is rather an ordinary person’s one or a person devoted to his work and artistic craftsmanship. No hands, no arms, no shoulders. The sole focus is on the head or should we say the brain and facial expression. Realistic painting is probably the closest you can get to today’s selfie-mania. Le Brun’s decoration and paintings in Versailles and churches ate probably some of the most popular backgrounds of selfiies even in the 21st century.

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Home for dog

The places where some dogs live can be rather big. But even tiny dogs may enjoy a luxury home like their owners. This was certainly the case for the dog’s niche in a Paris home, a few years before the French revolution (1785). The exhibit is a testimony of the tough inequality of the late 18th century in Paris, where some enjoyed far reaching luxury and large parts of the population were forced to live in poverty within Paris or the suburbs with little access to basic sanitary facilities. The discrepancy between the luxurious homes of pets and the average person might serve as an indicator for income and health inequality. The Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet has a great stock of artifacts that can speak to the issue. Image: Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet dog niche 1785). 

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Paris History

The “Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet” is the starting point for visitors of Paris and social scientists to better understand the making of this metropolitan city throughout centuries. The only common factor over the years is the astonishing determination to reinvent the city every 100 years whilst the best features of the previous periods are preserved. It is the concern for the very long-term time horizon that makes the city quite unique. Even a social revolution (1789) unlike most other countries managed to preserve most buildings, churches and royal palaces. Restorations are undertaken with a careful approach to shield its architectural and social heritage. Even the radical transformation by Haussmann over almost 20 years until 1870 to build large corridors in the city is subject to revision in modern visions of the future of Paris. The app of the museum is very helpful to learn more details about each chosen object of the permanent exhibition. The social fabric of the city can be studied further through app’s feature when representatives of local social organizations speak about their personal piece within the huge collection on display. The larger the “fundus”, the more the rationale for selecting pieces becomes an issue. (Image: Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet inner court 2025).

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Photographe engagée

Marie-Laure de Decker is featured in the “Musée européenne de la photographie” (MEP) as a photographer committed to capture truth in situations of conflict. She started her career with documentary photos from the Vietnam war. Rather than searching for spectacular scenes, she succeeded in her attempt to capture the more emotional and, therefore, relatable moments for her various audiences. With a firm commitment to the human in her work, the photos by Marie-Laure de Decker reach a level of extraordinary sensitivity to what it means to stay human in violent situations and even military conflict. The portraits of politicians, workers, professions and famous actors applied the same approach. Rather than days or weeks Marie-Laure de Decker spent months or years in the regions of her documentary photo series ranging from Vietnam, South Africa throughout the apartheid regime, Pinochet years of dictatorship in Chile, the 2 parts of Yemen to a prolonged stay in Chad.

The exhibition in the MEP in Paris curated by Victoria Aresheva  raises awareness to the additional fact that photo journalism became an affordable profession only after specialized agencies were created that granted authorship rights to photographers, which ensured later use of their work in edited volumes as well as working for several newspapers or magazines. (Image: Marie-Laure de Decker, self-portraits, MEP Paris exhibits 2025-8). 

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Emotional history

The making of emotional memories of a city is an art in itself. Many cities have professional photographers who accompany all major events in a city over years. Paris has had the chance that artist photographers and film makers have contributed greatly to the emotional history of the city. Agnès Varda was such a formidable person whose images and movies moved people and allowed to share emotions about the city’s busy and diverse neighborhoods. The « Musée Histoire de Paris Carnavalet » combines an autobiographic perspective with the emotional depiction of live in Paris from the 1950s onwards into the late 20th century. (Image: Agnès Varda, 1950 self-portrait, MEP Paris). 

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Femmes Photographers

Paris puts 2 women photographer into the spotlight. The MEP and the Musée historique de la Ville de Paris feature a gender perspective on photography. Both photographers have a common starting point in black and white photography.  Each moved on to develop their art into an additional direction later during their career. Marie-Laure de Decker shifted from the early camera technology from black and white images to color photography in the later stages of her career. Agnès Varda moved from her initial b/w photographic work on to the production of videos for cinema, mainly focused on life in Paris from the early 1960s onwards. An evolution over the professional life becomes evident for both through these retrospectives of their respective work. Technologies evolved and became more accessible for artists’ creative expression. Both moved on to adopt new techniques and challenges. Great personal learning experiences and models for today’s challenges.

(Image Marie-Laure de Decker, L’image comme engagement 2025-8 MEP Paris).

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Timeless Nature

The beauty of butterflies has fascinated thousands of generations. It is the boomers’ generation that has increased the risks that future generations will have difficulties to enjoy the simple beauty of nature in their gardens or parks. Preservation of biodiversity is a value that should be ranked much higher than previously. Monitoring of biodiversity needs a generation of people well aware what a rich ecosystem and biodiversity looks like and how to preserve or restore it. Much to do for teaching and learning professionals as well. Curriculum development for biodiversity and sustainability is in urgent need for updates. This has to include the socioeconomic dimension as well.