Water Quality

Obviously, water is not just an issue of quantity, but also quality. The availability of sufficient quantities of water in a region depends on rain, its storage, and the use of these water resources. The quality of water is a subsidiary issue, as lack of inflow causes concentrations of nuisance in water to rise. Global warming will most likely intensity the concern for not only the quantity, but also the quality of water.
Public services are in charge to sample and monitor levels of water quality for consumers. Independent of public, private or public private partnerships in this field there is a need to check from time to time the quality of water. Public institutions do a great job in monitoring water quality, but as science progresses there are new sources of pollution that enter the already complex analysis of water quality. New chemicals and remains of medical or pharmaceutical analyses have been retrieved from water and, sometimes, they have reached critical or unhealthy levels.
More detailed monitoring is necessary and new digital tools allow to improve just this type of monitoring to inform policy makers on shifting patterns.
A project of that type “Urban Green Eye”, for example, allows to monitor the artificialization of previous vegetation to show up on satellite images of Germany. Independent groups, citizens or communities might find it useful to use their own sampling and testing to guard against abuses or dysfunctional public monitoring systems. Start-ups like “Hydroguard” offer services to support activists, communities or public services in their own efforts to ensure water quality.

Water as a Service

Most of us are happy to turn on the water tap and enjoy the bubbles of fresh water. In other parts of the world this is considered a luxury and precious good. Public infrastructure takes care of water supply and treats waste water. We hardly even notice. This is changing in many regions of Europe now and Berlin and its surroundings are a good example of the challenges of water as a service. We need to sharpen our awareness that, yes, climate change again, has changed the priorities of water supply. Some East German regions face already a water supply shortage due to lack of rain water and adequate measures to store rather than evacuate rain fall. The German weather service (DWD) offers not only the info on rain fall, but also several indicators on soil humidity from 10cm to 200cm under the surface. These measures are important for crops and agriculture, but also for trees and vegetation in general. The droughts of the last years show a lack of humidity in large parts of East Germany.
This is the starting point for the “citizen science” project in the region of Brandenburg. The “Wassermeisterei” brings together people interested in water management to monitor soil humidity with a shared infrastructure and citizen enthusiasts to raise awareness and draw conclusions on the local preconditions for agriculture and forestry. Knowing about the evolution of water availability over time allows to make more informed judgements about the need and potential of a continuous and improved “water as a service”. The presentation of the project on the e-government fair was a reminder to take water more seriously and to value this crucial resource with more respect.

Digital Zebra

It is a difficult task in all countries to bridge the digital divide in a society. On the one hand, there are so-called digital natives, those who have grown up with smartphones and notebooks all around them all the time. On the other hand, there are many persons who have not kept track of the digital turn and feel rather lost or are afraid of making mistakes using digital tools. As public services are also moving online, the need for a society-wide comprehensive mastering of digital information and tools have become a sheer necessity. It is much more than just nice to have.
As public services move online like registrations, payments or tax declarations, the need for training and/or assistance of millions of people in a country become a real challenge. This is where the innovative project “digital zebra” in Berlin comes into play. Through the network of public libraries you can get support in person to master your digital challenges.
The name of the project refers to the “zebra crossing” of a road, which assists persons to move from one side to the other side, just like crossing the digital divide. We shall need a lot of those guides and other multiplyers who can assist people to move safely online. Only through this form of taking people with you on the move towards online public services we shall close the gap of the digital divide. It is probably going to widen before we can narrow it again, unless we breeding digital zebras in a rapid way.
(Image: SCCON 2024-10, Berlin)

Public health info

Public services have a premordial role to play in providing reliable and up-to-date information on health issues. It is no longer only in charge of collecting this information, for example on infectious diseases, but public services are in charge of timely disemination of that info as well. This is, of course, were online services and AI come into play. Getting out this info is crucial, but in the age of fake news and the wide disemination of news on social media, public services need to check also what becomes of the news they have published. The Covid-19 pandemic has been a worthwhile experience in this respect. It is important that reliable information is transmitted via trustworthy channels, which have already been established prior to the “next” health crisis. Many innovative tools were presented at the SCCON 2024 and maybe trustworthy video calls with a medical doctor or your pharmacist may constitute a solution to many infectious pandemics. However, trust in the technology is important as well as equipment and identification systems to be sure that your medical doctor you meet online is actually a medical doctor or only a savy pretender. The issue is as old as medical assistance. The RKI in Germany is the reference information for coordinated information on many public health issues like infectious diseases.
(Image: Extract of David Ryckart d.J. 1612-61, Der Dorfchirurg, SPK Gemäldegalerie Berlin)

Administration Online

The public administration is more and more moving online. The electronic identity is becoming a reality for all those with a recent personal identity card and who remember where they stored their pin code which came with the card. Moving houses or apartments or car registrations among other official registrations can be carried out online rather than by joining the lengthy queues at your public administration. The “buergerservice.org e.V.” presented the easy steps at the SCCON 2024 in Berlin again to the audiences. The support by the “mobile citizen’s office”, allowed to do the PIN retrieval or change on site and during 2 minutes. This is going to be a game changer for many people who shun away from lengthy admin procedures and push off such registrations due to the time-consuming queueing systems currently in place. Labour shortages are circumvented by e-administration and citizen’s satisfaction with public services increases. More publicity for such e-services and rapid implementation across countries and the EU should bring a about a new e-dynamic drive to old Europe. Employees or civil servants will be pleased to deal with exceptional cases only rather than the bulk of repetitive registrar work. More time will be available to real case management instead of suffering from impatient citizen clients. “Administration as a service” sounds like the new device of digital public management.

Digital public management

Countries with large public sectors also have specialized research called administrative science. More than 25 years ago the whole discipline has been hooked on the idea of so-called “new public management”, which introduced “management by objectives” and “benchmarking” as new tools into the field of public sector management. In Germany Naschold and Bogumil (2000) have been publishing extensively on the topic.  In 2024 the new public management is well established and the now new challenge is “digital public management”. Berlin just hosted a fair on this topic (SCCON 2024). This allows to speed up administrative procedures, increase the reach of public administration into remote areas and creates new challenges to counter the digital divide of society. The modern public sector may shift from being pushed by private sector companies in terms of digitalization to being a forerunner of digital provision of services. Tax declarations in Germany are a good example, where for many years it is a widespread practice to rely on digital forms of declaration and communication between the tax office and its clients.
Other countries, like Estonia, have taken already many more far reaching forms of digital public management and digital provision of services. The scope of such reforms is huge and the administration of persons in remote areas and aging societies give additional reasons to push ahead with digital public management.
At the time when even emails become outdated among youth, some administrations are proud to feature their latest innovation in digitalization. A machine is opening physical letters and scans the documents automatically and stores them in a secured cloud for example. It is indeed an important “bridging technology” for administrations dealing with a generation of older persons who are used to this form of communicationd by (snail)mail.
Many interesting new digital solutions (hard and software) were on display at the SCCON 2024 and many more are in the pipeline or pilots have been implemented already, well worth studying in more detail.

Forced Living Space

The „Topography of Terror“ hosted the book launch of the research project on „Zwangsräume“ (forced living space or forced homes). The cooperation of an impressive network of organizations (Aktives Museum Faschismus und Widerstand in Berlin e.V., Koordinierungsstelle Stolpersteine Berlin, Alfred Landecker Foundation, Metropol Verlag) has achieved to uncover the forced relocations of thousands of German jewish people from rented place to another one, thereby regrouping and cramping Jews into ever smaller living spaces in predetermined houses within Berlin. Through this horrible step by step expropriation and extermination terror was present and visible all over Berlin. The online documentation and data access allowed citizen science projects to accompany the research and actively contribute to enlarge the data investigated, analysis and dissemination of the findings. The continuation and extension of the project is already in preparation and seeks additional funding and volunteers. The traditional book publication helps to provide an insight into the thorough historical research which started with a more adequate definition „Zwangsräume“ than the previously used term of so-called „Judenhäuser“, since the houses had and kept a mixed population sharing the living spaces until deportations of the jewish persons forced into ever smaller living spaces before. The property of the deported persons was recovered by officials from sealed apartments and sold mostly as bargains on auctions or just redistributed among officials in need or with special merit for the Nazi-movement. This adds an intergenerational dimension to the project that is also worth looking into in the next phase of this extremely valuable project based on large online archives from original register information and other documents. (Image: The map shown below in the presentation has blue signs that have already been traced and hundreds of red signs where the histories are not yet retrieved).

Nazi Reinterpretations

Even almost 80 years after the end of Nazi terror and the 2nd World War started by Germany, we witness attempts to reinterpret the lives and careers of many Nazi officials. In the same realm, the crimes committed to pull out „Stolpersteine“ try to negate the horrible crimes committed by the Nazi leadership and their followers. The special exhibition at „Topography of Terror“ on „Reinhard Heydrich. Career and Violence” allows to study the biography of this high ranking and convinced Nazi official. After the usual career trajectory of a marine soldier he entered the Nazi secret police and made his career moving up the ranks showing readiness to use above average violence. This seems to have been a precondition to qualify for fast career trajectories. These personality traits have been demonstrated for thousands of Nazi officials in their professional life. This exhibition has additional merits to provide shocking evidence that the wife of Heydrich even many years after the end of the Nazi terror and 2nd WW does not show any signs of regret for what were her husband’s crimes against humanity. They had a splendid life and lived in a palace near Prag before her husband died after an attack by partisans. This is a great lesson to sharpen our awareness of those trying to reinterpret the lives of Nazi leaders and many of their followers. It is a timely reminder to not focus on rosy pictures of the Nazi time without the acknowledgment of the responsibility for millions of people who died. (Image: Extract of exhibition on Heydrich, Topography of Terror, Berlin 2024, book publication).

Nazi SS Terror

The permanent exhibition „Topography of Terror“ in the middle of Berlin is always a place that receives a lot of attention from tourists. This is great news. The central location is certainly part of the success story. The Brandenburg Gate and the boulevard„Unter den Linden“ nearby allow to combine historic interests and site seeing. Many groups from schools gain a visual impression of the terrorism the Nazi dictatorship and its para-military organizations have exercised during the years 1933-1945. The years after the 1st World war until the full dictatorship were crucial to attempt to stem the Nazi tide rolling across Germany from the original Munich-based headquarters. The information on the „Establishment of the Führer‘s Dictatorship“ (image below) is a warning to all of is today to guard against the beginnings of similarly extreme movements and parties today. We shall always remember and we shall never surrender.

Risk Takers

We are all risk takers of one form or the another. Those of us who ride motorbikes or enjoy rock climbing have an above average taste for risk taking. Since the publication of „The risk society“ we are aware that collectively as a society we have taken on additional risks like nuclear energy, atomic weapons or the risk associated with silent climate change with the persistent reliance on fossil fuels to a large extent. Holman W. Jenkins (WSJ) has added an additional perspective on risk takers which originates from government policies to encourage building homes in places subject to high risks of flooding. Several policies come to mind that encourage individuals to take high risks and construct and repair buildings in flood prone areas. Government grants, insurance policies and relocation subsidies are at issue here. Regulations like driving licenses try to build on competences to ensure „more rational risk taking“ in people. Teaching about nutrition might alleviate the obesity pandemic as much as awareness of an active lifestyle can avoid a large number of cardiovascular diseases. Risk taking should be to a large extent an individual’s choice with the consequence to live up to the consequences of the risks taken also more an individual’s responsibility. Collective solutions are a powerful way to encourage additional risk taking. The consequences of those well-defined solutions have to be funded collectively as well. A society-wide discussion and voting process on such issues has to be organized and updated from time to time. (Image Skateboard high and long jumps Brussels 2024-10)

Ranking Enterprises

The Spanish economic newspaper has published on its front page an updated ranking of the top 10 Spanish companies using environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria (see below). elEconomista.es on 2024-10-12 shows through this updated ranking that ESG criteria continue to be relevant information for investors. It is not just a nice to have information but gives important information on the sustainability record of a company. Continuous monitoring is key to show and reward the efforts and investments companies have made to improve sustainability. This information needs large distribution in order to keep up the awareness that there is more to a balance sheet than just turnover, profit margins, debts and investment. Churning of employees creates costs to society as a whole as well. Any early information on ESG indicators, therefore, allows a much broader assessment of the full impact of enterprises, 360 degrees and over time. Certainly a good example to follow up on.

Study Wages

There is a remarkable study of sectoral minimum wages in California. It deals with minimum wages that have been raised set to start from a floor of $20 per hour in the fast food sector. The first indications after 6 months show that the wage increases due to the regional and sectoral minimum wage in California were about 18% per hour. The wage rises did not have a negative effect on employment so far and are not expected to happen. The first indications suggest that price rises absorbed 2/3 of the wage increases. Consumers of the fast food chains and on special event locations do not react strongly on the price increases to reduce demand. As overall the turnover achieved in the restaurants increased even franchising chains were able to increase their profits. It is an interesting example that an increase in minimum wages can create a win-win-win situation starting with a substantial pay rise. A second round effect not mentioned in the study could consist in the narrowing of the price differential between healthy food and fast food. The option of a healthy meal might no longer appear to be so much more expensive.

Science Fraud

It is a big issue if publications in science in high reputation journals have managed to pass a rather lengthy and thorough peer review process and still contain evidence based on fraudulent data. The worst case scenario that based on this wrong evidence tests of useless drugs are performed on patients in hope of an honest concern for their health. In fact the financial rewards and even academic rewards have been achieved only through the successful publication of a bias introduced into the data and/or analyses of the data. The fraudulent researcher became subsequently Director of the institute of agingwhoch is part of the American National Institute of Health (NIH) and an academic reference in health sciences far beyond the USA. It is the merit of Charles Piller and his team to persist in challenging the treatment recommendations which were concerning Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases. The checks and balances in the academic research have failed and a serious reconsideration of the procedures should follow, not just business as usual. The reputation of scientific research is at stake beyond the natural sciences and medicine, although the normal way of proceeding is just to qualify such events as singularity and specific to a single discipline. Aging is also not just treated by one single discipline. Hence, there is a need to review the review process and publication practices. The Boeing airplane control failures were also indicating that reviews of technology are subject to high risks. Independent checks and control are hard to ensure in advanced subject matters, but sufficient time and resources have to be devoted to the process. (Image Repair Lab Deutsches Technikmuseum DTM2024).

AI Nobel

Artificial Intelligence has made it into the ranks of Nobel prizes in 2024. As AI is been talked about everywhere by now the Nobel Committee has deemed it expedient to award Hopfield and Hinton the Nobel Prize not in informatics, this does not exist (yet), but in physics. Neural networks focus on the links between bits of information rather than just the sheer number of data points mimics the functioning of our brains. The most remarkable statement by Hinton is probably the one of the also dangerous potential of this invention. He has already issued a disclaimer on the potential of AI in warfare or other ways to impinge on our human idea of freedoms. The discovery of the applications, good and bad, of these AI-based systems has just begun. The comparison with Nobel‘s original discovery and mass production of explosives from which the prize draws its name has hardly been more adequate recently. (Image stockholm City Library)

Aging Politicians

The process of aging is usually a process which is progressing slowly. For politicians this process seems to run in fast forward. The churning of people through careers as politicians is quite unpredictable despite the fact that a career track through youth organizations of political parties or non-governmental organizations is a fairly good predictor of prospects of a career within this party. As the political culture has become even more rough through the comments and criticism of official media and social media, the expectations to be available for comment and debate are almost instantaneous.
Burn-out and frustration are a more frequent occurrence. As such this is not surprising, but the young age of these occurrences are real concern. The profession of politicians bears many risks and even threats to their lives. Democracies rely heavily on politicians who master complex subjects and can communicate effectively about these topics.
Aging societies can no longer just claim that politicians should reflect the age structure of society. It remains a challenge to train and support young people for jobs in politics. It is also an issue to prepare for a sustainable career in politics and keep motivation high to go the extra mile in the interest of society as a whole.
(Image: Extract of Adolphe Menzel, Das Ballsouper, 1878, SPK Berlin)

Book Performance

Some texts are written in view of a performance, a theatre performance or an opera in mind. We have had dance performances and choreographers emancipate themselves from the music to claim dance is an art in its own right. Books are books in their own right. However, the hybrid forms of performance of a book was on display in the 2024 edition of the Wiels Art Book Fair in Brussels. It is common practice to invite speakers and authors for a book launch event. It is more rare to invite a choreographer and dancer to perform a book. This is exactly the what the publishers of A.R.D.V.L. did. Garance Debert put the editorial work and conceptual work on a book into a moving performance. There is much more to a book than just the letters and paper. The „mise en page“ turns into a „mise en scèene“ by an artist. The Wiels Art Book Fair has raised our attention to the larger creative potential of books, certainly art books, but also beyond books on art. Performative readings and book performances will enrich our repertoire of interacting with printed materials. Just before we might believe this is the next big hype, remember the bible is probably the book with the most theatrical performances linked to it.

Of or about

There exists a fundamental difference between taking a picture of something or someone as opposed to taking a picture about someone or something. With the term about we denote or refer to a more abstract category of trees, animals or human beings. The use of of, however, refers to a specific realization within a specific category. Painters or photographers have applied this distinction for a long time. It is similar to social scientists who consider persons or relationships as belonging to more general categories. Gender is such a category which has preoccupied us for years before concluding that just 2 gender categories are not enough to come up with reasonable descriptions and predictions of behavior. The realizations of gender are manifold and not necessarily or only binary in nature as well appearances. Eventually social categories are enlarged to fit empirical patterns in more adequate ways. The image of someone/something therefore is something very different from an image about someone/something. (Image of: Children’s corner at Musée Rodin Paris. Image about: Pedagogic approaches to art, here sculptures « Le penseur », Rodin 19th century)

Smart Cars

Technology of cars and in cars has evolved rapidly with the move towards the smart cars. Smart cars are characterized by many additional sensors, almost permanent connectivity to the producer’s software platform, the internet, autonomous driving capability or, potentially, remote control. We might still curse some nostalgic feelings of being in driving seat, but the supervision of our capability to drive and monitoring of behavior has reached impressive levels of perfection beyond the fasten your seatbelt sign and alarm. The software that is driving our cars has become the challenge of the coming years and with this the concern for data privacy and cyber security. Smart cars have multiple cameras to guide driving and parking effectively. These cameras are also a perfect spy even around or in your home. From our smartphones we all know the scanning of connectable Bluetooth devices or wlan nearby. Smart cars are powerful assistants in data collection sometimes even beyond your control, for example who these data are sent to. June Yoon (2024-10-2 Financial Times) has developed this rationale even further to stir up additional fears: “A hacked self-driving car might even be turned into a weapon”. The weaponization of beepers, talky-walkies is certainly not the last step in this process of potential dangers of technology. Smart cars come with additional risks, not only additional comfort. Better choose your rollercoaster wisely.

Happy Time

“The times are a changing”, so is happiness. This is the spice of life we might add as well. Trajectories of happy life run not as flat lines simply on different, but largely parallel levels. Curves of different persons intersect. Even the focus of what determines personal happiness is different from one person to other. A job-focused person deviates substantially from a person deriving happiness mainly from her/his private life. The time dimension of happiness is yet another puzzle. Some persons have a focus on now and today, others consider a future time perspective for a happy life as less, equally or more important. Even the retrospective experience of happiness or unhappy childhood experiecences can override current emotions and oveall satisfaction with life. Economists apply a so-called discount rate to benfits or costs that accrue in future, which means that 1000 € in future, usually are estimated to have a lower value than 1000 € now. Happiness at some point in time in the future is likely to “suffer” from the same rationale. Satisfaction now is valued higher than even the same satisfaction at a later point in time. This probably explains a large deal why fewer people are concerned with their retirement benefits early on in their professional career and their job satisfaction trajectory. Many artists, apparently have a deviating time horizon. They endure economic hardship now for some recognition in future, but still have a happy time now.
(Image: Jorge Carrasco, Church Painting, France)

Happy Biology

At first glance happiness from a biological perspective is easy to understand. Its hormones, stupid, that regulates it all. Only problem, there are many of them that interact and, apparently, a lot depends on the right dosis and duration of exposure or deficiency. Oxytocin deficiency seems to be a corollary of anxiety and lack of pro-social behavior, potentially making people less happy – to put it bluntly. There are other complex interactions between hormones not only in the circadian circle of humans like for cortisol, but also related to differential reactions to stress. Genetics and epigenetics are involved as well stress regulation and early exposition to stress during the life course has longer lasting consequences later on. How much stress is good for you? Climbing Mountains induces physical stress, but most people report lasting happiness referring back to such singular events. Hormones seem to play tricks with us as well.
Some time after the novel “Klara and the Sun“, endocrinologists have documented the positive effect of a robot on oxytocin levels in humans. Improvements to mental health and well-being are apparently easy considering that oxytocin is a driver of feeling happy as well. Maybe we should take our depressors and drivers of oxytocin more seriously to be “biologically” happy.
(Image: Extrait Frans Hals 1660, Catharina Hooft and her nurse. Exhibition Gemäldegalerie Berlin 2024)

Happy Employee

The research on happiness, subjective well-being or overall satisfaction with your life is also an empirical question. Analyses of being happy donot only focus of overall happiness, but look much more into the details of happiness. Beyond the tricky longitudinal observations of happiness it is common scientific practice to deal with subdomains of happiness like satisfaction of employees with their job, satisfaction with one’s job beyond the honeymoon and hangover effect, best known from family studies.
Each of those subdomains has a significant effect on overall happiness. The novel “Happy Life” by David Foenkinos is an interesting example which focuses mainly on the subdomains of job satisfaction, satisfaction with private and romantic partners as the major domains of a happy life. As developed in the novel, people make job changes to re-orientate professional careers or reset their private life. A low point on the happiness scale in one domain might be compensated by higher levels in another domain. These impact from one domaine to another might have substantial time lags involved as well. More drastic resets (à la Foenkinos) can be avoided through focus on other subdomains of overall happiness as well.
How happy are you with your housing situation, neighborhood, your pet, your physical health? There a multiple +/-spill-over effects to overall happiness. Reading a novel might be one as well, just take time reserved to yourself.(Image BnF expo “women in sport”, 20024)

Happy Maths

The link of maths and happiness is not straightforward. Individual accounts of a happy (euphoric) or unhappy (dismal) life are mostly referred to psychologists for treatment. The biografies (documentaries) or fictional biografies told in novels or cinema allow to trace the changing moods of the personalities over time. This resembles life course research. In happiness research social scientist ask questions like “Overall, how satisfied are you with your life“. Measured over time or coded from biografies this allows to reconstruct happiness trajectories. At this point the maths of happiness enter the stage. Long periods of observations yield interesting patterns of curved lines, rarely simple linear trajectories. Social scientist speak of within person variability in contrast to between persons variability. After all, the (short-term superior) happiness of your neighbor might simply be due to the fact that they are doing drugs.
Whatever, try to remember a bit of your high school maths and the bore to deal with “curve discussions or sketching” beyond the manifold shapes of your classmates. Lots of interesting information derives from growth or decline rates, tangent lines, stationary or inflection points. Different starting points or so-called intercepts vary between individuals as well as he potential  to cross the Zero-line on one of the axes. Additionally, in geometry you would compare syncronicity of curved lines as well as forms of symmetry for the curve(s). This will simplify or comlexify your perspective on the happiness trajectories of people or characters in a novel.
We are so used to narratives or videoss with a happy end, yet we appreciate the complex trajectories and (multiple) troughs main characters have to pass. Novels teach us about tricky inflection points and subsequent trajectories as well. The maths of happiness, however, is rather simple in comparison.
(Image from Toronto District Christian High School -pdf p.207).

Russian Demographics

Dictators prepare their countries long before for upcoming wars. One indicator of such strategies is the pursuit of “natalist” policies. These are demographic policies that aim to increase a country’s population so that the human losses endured during war maybe recovered faster. Russia has had such a policy doctrine in place for quite many years. Only, it didn’t work. Alain Blum and Sergei Zakharov (2023) have shown this in their paper on  “L’obsession nataliste de Poutine“. Rather than achieving a growth in the population, at best, the further rather rapid decline of fertility and the population size before the war is reflected in the data (until 2022). The recent objection of youth and women to bear more children is subject of massive opposition of Putin’s forces inside the country. So-called total fertility of 1.5 per woman before the war is as low as or lower than in many other European countries. However, on the other end of aging is mortality or life expectancy. The data show a rather bleak picture of Russia already before the invasion of Ukraine. Based on data published from INED in France Russia has about 1.000.000 more people dying in 2022 than babies born. Bad handling of the Covid-19 pandemic (inefficient vaccines) is also a reason for this dent in population size. Adding outmigration of youth that does not want to stay in a country that goes to war with peaceful neighbors, this bleak population outlook is the disastrous heritage of the Putin years of Russia in the 21st century for generations to come as well.

Ballistic Missiles

Ballistic missiles have been studied as part of physics for centuries. The basic mechanics in gravitational fields like on earth are well known. Longer reach intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) have been built by several countries for defensive or offensive purposes. China had demonstrated to master the science and technology of rockets since its latest launch of a ICBM in 1980. In 2024-9 China has demonstrated again, it is still capable to launch such missiles with long distance range (Japan Times 2024-9-25). This is both a technological task, but much more a geopolitical issue as a reminder to be taken seriously on the international political arena currently. Technological capabilities and capacities have regained geopolitical strategic importance as attempts to shift the global balance of power, which is undergoing multiple challenges or even changes. Flagging technological options is not only important to demonstrate own military strength, but to present a country as a potential strategic partner of global reach. Window dressing using weapons is much more oriented towards other countries (buyers of weapons mainly) than of relevance for Chinese society. Strategic alliances seek strategic partners. China is likely to receive more attention in the 21st century than before.
(Image: extrait de Gustave Courbet: La vague, 1870, Berlin SPK)

Patient Capital

There is something cultural about capital. Different cultures use different narratives when they commonly talk about capital. In Western capitalist societies it is common practice to cite “capital is a fugitive dear”, meaning that people who command sizeable amounts of capital tend to flee places once they become to agitated, especially by politicians. The Eastern narrative surrounding capital is more focused on “patient capital”. The newspaper “China Daily” has more than 6.000 entries referring to this term. On 2024-9-26 (p.9) the Japenese economist Kazuyuki Motohashi praised the Japanese economic system and its specific form of patient capitalism as based on” long-term, stable investment, which enables companies to achieve sustainable growth in the long run”. The Chinese economy suffers as Western capitalism from excessive focus on short-term profit seeking and this causes huge market flucturations shifting quickly from shortages to oversupply and back again. Short-term rent seeking is driving whole industries into fluctuations that are hard to attenuate through other economic (fiscal and monetary) as well as labour market policies (training, re-locations, internal migration).
It is interesting to witness that recently in Germany an example of a bank that had benefited from a patient capital approach of the German government for more than a decade (Commerzbank) is now prone to a bit of a hostile takeover from another bank probably more interested in the short-term rent-seeking. After all, banking and the varieties of capitalism approach highlight that at the very heart of economic rationale there remains a little bit of a cultural twist to understand what is happening in international economics and competition.(Image: Musée Rodin Paris 2024, Le Penseur”)

Fiscal Union

European Integration is slow and hard to come by. For others it is moving too fast (Brexit). Cultural diversity is a real asset of the EU. The economy or the economies are powerful on an international scale. Nevertheless, the diversity concerning the tolerance of fiscal deficits is still widely spread across the Member States of the EU (see image below). Some states seem to play it cool and run relatively high deficits compared to the EU averages. In OECD comparisons most of the above average fiscal deficits are closer to or even below OECD averages over time (link to pdf-file OECD, 2024). Within the EU differences in government expenditure as % of GDP or the indicator of Gross public debt according to the Maastricht Criteria range from 20% to 160% as percentage of GDP. This entails a different level of resilience to future crises. After we managed to leave the previous 3 crises (financial, Covid-19, energy) it is time to prepare for what might come next in terms of challenges. Preparing public deficits to be able to soften economic shocks is essential to be able to sustain yourself and support others. We seem to be a bit off-target to coordinate fiscal deficits across the Union. Eastern and Northern countries have suffienct scope to support expansionist fiscal policies, be it in the realm of a defence union or to address climate change. Southern Europe will find it more difficult to raise additional funds to prepare now for future challenges. Fiscal deficits might even be not only an economic phenomenon, but a cultural one as well. If we compare Japan with a deficit running at 240% with South Korea with 50% Asia is showing even larger diversity in terms of fiscal preparedness.
An economist’s stance on fiscal policy and fiscal union might depend much more on her/his region or country of origin than economists might want to believe.
Images: OECD Economic Surveys: Belgium 2024, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c671124e-en. p.17.

Traffic Speed

Most people use cars or other automotive vehicles (e-bikes, e-scooter) to get faster from point A to point B. However, speed of traffic causes trouble for other groups of mobile persons. Demands on attention rise, despite the abundant use mobile phones even during driving a car. Mapping systems and services from A to B have become an almost daily exercise. Statistics on road accidents that involved inadequate speed are between 20 and 30 percent of all deadly road accidents, depending on the source of information and country (Example D). Frequently, speed is not the only cause, but other behavioral mistakes occur jointly.
Traffic signs are a basis to make drivers aware of accident prone locations. Too many of them may even lead to the opposite effect of ignoring the signs. Reducing the speed of traffic in inner cities is a steep challenge and many cities invest substantial amounts of money and effort to monitor and try to control better excessive speed. Schools, sports centres and shopping areas are all hot spots of automotive and pedrian encounters. They deserve special attention. Penalizing excessive speed is one way to nudge behavioral change. Although the statistics on the huge amounts of penalties awarded does not seem to alter the behavior of traffic participants in the short run. For some it appears to be a regular part of their budget of mobility with no consequence for behavioral changes.
For years the dangers of inadequate traffic speed in cities made young families and older persons leave more risky inner cities, but adaptations of hot spots and increased control systems seem to work in the long run. The “externality” of inadequate traffic speed is higher costs for the health system and society at large. About time to make a “behavioral turn” in traffic speed.

freight transport

The transport of goods is an important and crucial economic sector to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions. According to statistics from Eurostat Total Road Freight Transportation increased by an annual 0.6% percent between 2019 and 2023. Considering the slack during the Covid-19 economic restrictions this is a remarkable development. Most people agree that more freight on rail could allow a much better performance concerning CO2 emissions. This needs substantial investments in infrastructure and intelligent solutions for optimised and accessible freight loading points. The logistics of the last mile for delivery has found many innovative solutions with battery-supported e-vehicles. The tough issue seems to be the production of e-lorries at competitive prices to the Diesel-engines. Considering the legal obligations to take breaks to ensure sufficient concentration of lorry drivers, the battery charging infrastructure has to be planned accordingly. Ports and airports a certainly key infrastructure for freight transport as well. Industry has additional key locations with high freight frequencies and tonne-kilometres. Eurostat data show that EU-wide empty running vehicles account for about 22%. Scope for optimization is, therefore, a continuous challenge for the sector.
E-transportation is high on the agenda in the sector and production of e-lorries a big challenge. There a many positive signs that the sector has taken up the challenge as there are an estimated 100.000 € per year cost advantage of battery-driven lorries compared to traditional ones (Le Monde 2024-9-24 p.16). This is simply a long-term survival issue for the sector. Smart transport solutions add to the productivity potential of the sector in combination with electrification.

Sufficient

What do we mean by sufficient? Sufficient of what? French philosophers currently debate the topic under the French notion of sobriété (sobriety). They give as English translation sufficiency, but the notions do not match exactly in the usual understanding of the words. In breaking with the economic rationale of more is always better, the idea of having sufficient food, room to live in or social contacts to not feel lonely, the notion of sufficiency hints towards a rethinking of our customary lifestyles. How many trousers are sufficient? Well, as with shoes there might be gender differences or more generally interpersonal differences or preferences to come to the conclusion of how many is sufficient. If we bring in the notion of sobriety in additional, we allow another social and/or ecological dimension. This may redefine what is sufficient based on judgments how much our planet can handle (emissions) and distributional judgments. The western lifestyle of the last 100 years is no role model for other countries to follow. It is urgent to rethink our growth based economic model to develop new socially viable ways of production and consumption. It seems to be a necessary condition to reconsider the notion of wellbeing and wealth from a sufficiency perspective. It is a sobering thought, isn‘t it?

Wave Length

The links between art and science are manifold and run in both directions. Artists challenge science or the outcomes of science and scientist refer to or maybe inspired by the work of artists. If artists challenge scientists by proposing an alternative theory they become subject to empirical scrunity like the unfortunate fate of the theory of colors of J.W. Goethe. The physics of colors has long been established and the theory of colors and light are best represented in science using wave lengths as the unit of measuring different colors. Hence, in this theory of colors or light the spectrum of colors runs from violet, dark blue, indigo (short wave lengths) passing yellow (medium wave length) to orange and red (longest wave lengths).
The painter Ellsworth Kelly has also challenged the science-based view of colors in “Spectrum IX” from 2014 currently part of the exhibition “Ellsworth Kelly. Formes et couleurs, 1949-2015” at the Fondation Louis Vuitton in Paris (extract of image below). As a provocation to the scientifically trained vision Spectrum IX breaks up the running from short to long wave length to take the scientific linear colors of the spectrum and split the spectrum in the middle (yellow) and join the ends upside down. Alternatively, take the spectrum and glue both ends of the color spectrum together to a circle and cut in the middle of yellow to form again a seemingly linear evolution of colors.
Now, let’s meditate in front of this new spectrum of colors and follow your senses. The challenge of the theory of colors is a provocative statement of all those imaginative potentials we exclude through a solely science-based view of colors. Art opens up virtual space and fills it sometimes with abstract reflections on colors. It is raising the question of beauty versus science, beauty in science or beauty through science. (Image: Ellsworth Kelly. Spectrum IX in exhibition Formes et couleurs, 1949-2015″)