There are many ways to study inflation. You may start by looking through your collection of bills. Economists like to swear by the consumer price index or indices, if you are even more into inflation. In textbooks like “economics for dummies” we learn about rational behavior and price adjustment mechanisms through the “invisible hand” to find some sort of equilibrium.
Advanced economics courses will teach you about strategic behavior inspired by game theory and the effectiveness/ineffectiveness of cheating. For advanced economists it is, therefore, inevitable that “cheatflation” should be part of the economists’ vocabulary. Of course, a profit maximizing entrepreneur is likely to way the risk of being found out contributing to cheatflation against the potential gains.
How to cheatflate? Too easy. Any producer of a product can cheat by using, for example, other ingredients than those printed on the product label, usually cheaper ones. Instead of fruit juice (wine) you may just sell colored water with lots of sugar (ethanol) in it, but still label it fruit juice (wine) and get away with this, until a consumer protection group makes a fuzz about it. A more sophisticated way is to sell investments in ESG-rated funds, but then include dirty stocks without proper notification in the fund, which probably increases profits based on wrong labels.
There is a specific quality to cheatflation, which makes it different from shrinkflation or enshittification. The drive to “obtain unfair advantages” through cheating across a whole country or region makes cheatflation an economy-wide process and subverts general fairness rules as well as trust in a society.
(Image Saccharometer, DTM Berlin 2024) 
Animal Longevity
- From time to time it is interesting to study animals from many species to maybe learn from them about longevity. Roberto Salguero-Gómez (LINK) developed a sociality continuum and compared 152 species across 13 taxonomic classes. The study reiterates and generalizes the many studies of single species and finds that „more social species live longer, have more generation time and longer reproductive windows“. Social structures amongst animals of the same species influence survival and reproduction as basic demographic processes. These processes determine to a large extent the size of animal populations. Sociality appears to be a major contributor to longevity compared across species. These processes determine the survival of rather solitary species like panda bears (running higher risks of extinction) compared to populations of bees with rather hierarchical predefined social structures. The spotted hyenas developed cooperative hunting and communal care which allows for effective survival compared to other species. Sociality is specific to species and therefore largely determined by genetic factors. Nature rather than nurture is at work. However, species where reproduction occurs later allow for learning curves of sociality. In other words even within species there is scope to improve longevity through sociality. Migration patterns or experience with migration might be yet another determinant of survival or longevity as climate change poses new challenges to many species.
No tobacco Sweden
Sweden is the forerunner as country with the lowest number of smokers across Europe and probably even the world with only 5% of the population 16 years and older. The success of these public health policies is due to banning smoking not only form pubs and restaurants, but also outside in the surroundings of public spaces like schools, playgrounds, train stations and sports facilities. These policies work quite well and the effects of discouraging smoking in public is reduced to a minimum rather than the normal encounter.
Health of the other persons and children passing through these areas is not the only goal. A new estimate of lost days or years due to smoking based on a study from England shows that “each cigarette smoked reduces the smoker’s life by about 20 minutes (17 for men, 22 for women, LINK to study). Of course, there is a huge variance and other work and life conditions that play an important role as well, but the broad average estimate is a nice way of talking about statistics. The basis of the estimate is for those who stop smoking and not those reducing their tobacco intake by some percentage or replacement product.
In the Belgian football stadium (image below 2024) in Brussels the No tobacco sign is well placed to make parents of children and youth understand the challenge ahead. Good resolutions are assisted by gentle regular reminders as well. 
Administration Online
The public administration is more and more moving online. The electronic identity is becoming a reality for all those with a recent personal identity card and who remember where they stored their pin code which came with the card. Moving houses or apartments or car registrations among other official registrations can be carried out online rather than by joining the lengthy queues at your public administration. The “buergerservice.org e.V.” presented the easy steps at the SCCON 2024 in Berlin again to the audiences. The support by the “mobile citizen’s office”, allowed to do the PIN retrieval or change on site and during 2 minutes. This is going to be a game changer for many people who shun away from lengthy admin procedures and push off such registrations due to the time-consuming queueing systems currently in place. Labour shortages are circumvented by e-administration and citizen’s satisfaction with public services increases. More publicity for such e-services and rapid implementation across countries and the EU should bring a about a new e-dynamic drive to old Europe. Employees or civil servants will be pleased to deal with exceptional cases only rather than the bulk of repetitive registrar work. More time will be available to real case management instead of suffering from impatient citizen clients. “Administration as a service” sounds like the new device of digital public management. 
Forced Living Space
The „Topography of Terror“ hosted the book launch of the research project on „Zwangsräume“ (forced living space or forced homes). The cooperation of an impressive network of organizations (Aktives Museum Faschismus und Widerstand in Berlin e.V., Koordinierungsstelle Stolpersteine Berlin, Alfred Landecker Foundation, Metropol Verlag) has achieved to uncover the forced relocations of thousands of German jewish people from rented place to another one, thereby regrouping and cramping Jews into ever smaller living spaces in predetermined houses within Berlin. Through this horrible step by step expropriation and extermination terror was present and visible all over Berlin. The online documentation and data access allowed citizen science projects to accompany the research and actively contribute to enlarge the data investigated, analysis and dissemination of the findings. The continuation and extension of the project is already in preparation and seeks additional funding and volunteers. The traditional book publication helps to provide an insight into the thorough historical research which started with a more adequate definition „Zwangsräume“ than the previously used term of so-called „Judenhäuser“, since the houses had and kept a mixed population sharing the living spaces until deportations of the jewish persons forced into ever smaller living spaces before. The property of the deported persons was recovered by officials from sealed apartments and sold mostly as bargains on auctions or just redistributed among officials in need or with special merit for the Nazi-movement. This adds an intergenerational dimension to the project that is also worth looking into in the next phase of this extremely valuable project based on large online archives from original register information and other documents. (Image: The map shown below in the presentation has blue signs that have already been traced and hundreds of red signs where the histories are not yet retrieved).
Risk Takers
We are all risk takers of one form or the another. Those of us who ride motorbikes or enjoy rock climbing have an above average taste for risk taking. Since the publication of „The risk society“ we are aware that collectively as a society we have taken on additional risks like nuclear energy, atomic weapons or the risk associated with silent climate change with the persistent reliance on fossil fuels to a large extent. Holman W. Jenkins (WSJ) has added an additional perspective on risk takers which originates from government policies to encourage building homes in places subject to high risks of flooding. Several policies come to mind that encourage individuals to take high risks and construct and repair buildings in flood prone areas. Government grants, insurance policies and relocation subsidies are at issue here. Regulations like driving licenses try to build on competences to ensure „more rational risk taking“ in people. Teaching about nutrition might alleviate the obesity pandemic as much as awareness of an active lifestyle can avoid a large number of cardiovascular diseases. Risk taking should be to a large extent an individual’s choice with the consequence to live up to the consequences of the risks taken also more an individual’s responsibility. Collective solutions are a powerful way to encourage additional risk taking. The consequences of those well-defined solutions have to be funded collectively as well. A society-wide discussion and voting process on such issues has to be organized and updated from time to time. (Image Skateboard high and long jumps Brussels 2024-10)
Traffic Speed
Most people use cars or other automotive vehicles (e-bikes, e-scooter) to get faster from point A to point B. However, speed of traffic causes trouble for other groups of mobile persons. Demands on attention rise, despite the abundant use mobile phones even during driving a car. Mapping systems and services from A to B have become an almost daily exercise. Statistics on road accidents that involved inadequate speed are between 20 and 30 percent of all deadly road accidents, depending on the source of information and country (Example D). Frequently, speed is not the only cause, but other behavioral mistakes occur jointly.
Traffic signs are a basis to make drivers aware of accident prone locations. Too many of them may even lead to the opposite effect of ignoring the signs. Reducing the speed of traffic in inner cities is a steep challenge and many cities invest substantial amounts of money and effort to monitor and try to control better excessive speed. Schools, sports centres and shopping areas are all hot spots of automotive and pedrian encounters. They deserve special attention. Penalizing excessive speed is one way to nudge behavioral change. Although the statistics on the huge amounts of penalties awarded does not seem to alter the behavior of traffic participants in the short run. For some it appears to be a regular part of their budget of mobility with no consequence for behavioral changes.
For years the dangers of inadequate traffic speed in cities made young families and older persons leave more risky inner cities, but adaptations of hot spots and increased control systems seem to work in the long run. The “externality” of inadequate traffic speed is higher costs for the health system and society at large. About time to make a “behavioral turn” in traffic speed. 
Buzzing free
It is always a chance to be in a city that bans cars for some time from streets and bicycles and pedestrians can walk freely in the city. On September 22nd 2024 this is the case in Brussels. In addition, the public transport system allows people to buzz around the city free of charge. Of course this is an invitation to get to know areas of the city where you normally don’t take the time to visit or mix with people. The police used the time to teach children how to cycle in a city in all security and respecting basic rules despite the enthusiasm for speed or going round in circles. Unfortunately, this happens only one Sunday out of 52 in a year. It is just amazing how the feeling of safety on the road changes again. The level of noise and pollution drops to levels of the countryside. Buses and trams pass the city easily and most people get around faster than they do on other days of the year. It is a bit like a coordinated health intervention for the stressed urban survivors. This experience is a modest reminder of how nice it was in Paris during the Olympic Games 2024 when prioritizing mobility beyond cars haa been effectively implemented for several weeks.
Lost Objects
Project yourself into the future more than a hundred years from today, maybe even more than a thousand years from today. Some archaeologists will work on the planet earth to uncover the story behind the disappearance of the once very advanced species of homo erectus. They start drilling near some of the mystical sites of this civilization, the cities where mass celebrations were held called Olympic Games. These archaeologists use huge drilling machines to take samples at previous Olympic sites and uncover the remains of the thought to be modern civilizations on earth. Amongst all these samples they find all sorts of artifacts and layers left over. Plastics and metal structures appear in the samples as well as other forms of „artificializations“, transformations of earth’s principal „natural“ raw materials. The inhabitants of earth apparently lost or destroyed the planet‘s capabilities of CO2 storage and eventually became extinct. After fighting for survival on another planet the archeological expedition on earth saved this block of the remains of a doomed civilization. All this is pure science fiction, yet the specimen sample is exposed on the roof of the futuristic Fondation Louis Vuitton building near the Jardin d‘Acclimatation in Neuilly sur Seine. (Image of „Where the slaves live“ of Adrian Villar Rochas, 2014).
Stress Ageing
The relationship between stress and aging is a complex one. Stress is known to accelerate aging and aging caused different reactions to stress. In short causality does not run only in one direction. Additionally new research published in Nature Medicine 2024 demonstrates that different genetic preconditions determine different response patterns to stress and subsequent brain aging. From anecdotal experience we are well aware of different persons coping very differently with stressful situations. Mastering of various coping mechanisms may attenuate the stress experience but the impact on preserving our brain remains an open question. Various other forms of lifestyle conditions like drugs and smoking cause specific forms of brain damage as well. 2 separate forms of dementia can be identified from brain MRI-images as well. The brain is no longer the black box of missing information about what is going on in humans. Put to the right purposes this is good news. (Image: break dance shooting Paris St Denis 2024)
Less is better
There is an interesting psychological phenomenon which is called the less-is-better effect. First research on this phenomenon dates back to marketing research more than 25 years ago. The Olympic games have even a mention on the English Wikipedia page on this less-is-better effect. The winner of a bronze medal at the Olympics might feel more happy than the winner of a silver medal. Why? Viewed as separate events winning a bronze medal makes can make you so much happier, because you are among the famous group of medallists in your discipline or with your team, whereas as a silver medallist you might be so disappointed that you did not reach the gold medal that this overrides the joy to come 2nd instead of 3rd. Several interviews of athletes during the Paris 2024 Games gave evidence of the pertinence of this less-is-better effect.
There are other forms of application of this rationale as well. A more sociological perspective highlights the potential change of category from less is more to the less-is-better rationale. One variable assessed in less and more frequency or value maybe better or worse in another category. Less pollution leads to better health. It is like a shift from a quantitative variable to a qualitative assessment of the same situation. Olympic Games are full of useful lessons from a social science point of view. Although, more can be worse. 
Generational differences
The study of generational differences has a long tradition in sociology. A recent study by Wysmulek et al. (Acta Sociologica 2024, 131pp). highlights changes in how youth values education, abilities and hard work. The study carried out with Polish data shows that it is not the straightforward historical grouping of birth cohorts that matters most, but the experience of living through a period of crisis or stability during the formation of so-called meritocratic beliefs. Once formed, these beliefs tend to persist for prolonged periods of time well into middle and late adulthood.
Many judgements about young people might suffer a substantial generational bias when viewed from another generation’s vantage point. Cross-generational differences in beliefs and behavior are dependent on homogeneous or heterogeneous experiences of the respective generations. Disrespect of such generational differences is bound to yield severe misunderstandings. Who told you that social life was easy anyway? (Image decorated piano in shopping mall, Berlin 2024)
Chapelles Sportifs
In Paris the “Chapelle Notre Dame des Sportifs” was benedicted in 2023 in view of the Olympic Games 2024 in France. The catholic church is following the popular Olympics to call for “Holy Games” with subtitle “L’évangile c’est sport”. The chapel can be visited in the splendid church “La Madeleine” in the middle of Paris. You can buy candles with inscriptions like “the last ones, will come first (Mt 20,16)” or other citations from the bible. On Friday 2024-7-19 a special ceremony was held where you could jointly pray to win in your discipline or, of course, for other noble causes. The whole service was recorded with multiple cameras from a professional television team for a worldwide dissemination. It remains an open question, whether the church sponsors athletes as well or whether the athletes sponsor the church through their followers on social media. in any case it is a bigger media event accompanying the Olympic games in Paris.
Community Gardening
Gardening brings people together. Not only in the countryside, but also in the middle of cities. Brussels is a nice example of this. The city district called “forest” has a community gardening project that has an astonishing amount of followers. The results of the joint activity are visible from the the park nearby and in the far distance the tower of the “Palais de Justice” can still be seen. In years with above average amounts of rain the watering of the community garden is much less of a concern. Neighbors respect the initiative and even dogs are kept off the area. It is not graffitis or rubbish left behind that discourages the gardening enthusiasts there. Such projects can work even in the vicinity of less wealthy areas. Mixing different communities in inner cities is day-to-day experience. Gardening and the beauty of nature is there free to enjoy for everyone. The seeds, fruit and small young trees are then planted in other public spaces. This is a marvelous effort to stem the tide of delinquent behavior all too often spoiling the inner city environments. They might still be only a few, but the community gardeners have impact.
Betting vice
Betting is considered a vice. The industry has moved from the local bookmakers to the internet and is spread across countries and continents. Some legal advisers have classified betting as the fastest growing vice industry and it is about time to launch a wake up call for more oversight of what is going on in the sector. As betting like gambling seems to be working in conjunction with other addictions the potential of cumulative risks is quite high. Our brains tend to wire things together which frequently occur jointly. It is difficult to disentangle these co-occurrences later again. The major angle of attack is prevention.
Health journals start warnings of the detrimental effects persons and observe that the industry follows similar strategies as the tobacco industry to address as many people as possible. And this is very successful and profitable for them. Hence, prevention strategies should also follow what has been applied to smoking like the ban from restaurants and bars as well as the restrictions on advertising. We will have to accept that betting and gambling should not be as easily accessible as it is currently. Age restrictions have to be applied stringently. I bet this will take quite a long time until Europe and elsewhere the regulations will change. Some of the young get interested in even more stimulating activities like exploring arts (image below class at Neue Nationalgalerie Berlin 2024-6) rather than betting on who is going to win the Euro 2024 football matches.
Smoke Gamble
Smoking is like a gamble. Your input is your health and money. This is not including those who might rely on you or family relationships that might suffer one way or another. The other link has gambling at its source and smoking goes along with the continuous risk taking or the belief to be able to master the risks involved with both forms of potential addictions. Research has accumulated evidence that in fact both smoking and gambling occur frequently in combination with each other. Taking risks against the odds of suffering losses, maybe only in the medium or longer run perspectives like for health seems acceptable for those people. Society has put rather high taxes on both activities to discourage people and invests in prevention of addictions. However, it does not have substantial effects on people as smoking remains around the same level and gambling (poker online) or betting on sports (Euro 2024) are rising rapidly. Vaping and internet gaming have broadened the spectrum of addictive behaviors mostly for younger persons and young adults. The risks are manifold and increasing in their addictive potential since the smartphone is always in some pocket just like the smoking device. The behavioral turn in the social sciences has been well understood by the industries as well. The stakes for human development are high in this endeavor to offer young people equal opportunities at entry into adulthood.
Cannabis Alcohol
The use of cannabis and/or alcohol is yet another question where we are used to ask questions in the form of: either the or the other? Over generations we have gotten used to no longer ask for each do you or don’t you. With the controlled liberalization or legalization of cannabis in some Western European states the framing of the question is more like you do the one or the other, particularly for many younger persons.
Decriminalization of both drugs in small quantities is apparently reducing crimes link to drug use and drug dealing. On the other hand, the thresholds for doing drugs are lower than they used to be. In inner cities it is therefore no longer a surprise to find both kinds of drugs with addictive potential next to each other (see image below). We know that it is a slippery road from regular drug use to uncontrolled dependency and personal disaster. For cannabis a study published in the Lancet (Petrilli et al. 2022) added the importance of the potency of tetrahydrocannabinol to the estimate of risks. This is similar to the studies that differentiate the level of alcohol in drinks consumed. The higher the concentration, the higher the risks. A simple proportional relationship prevails in both drugs. The cumulative effects of consuming both together might have quite surprising non-linear effects.
The big issue is the risks of mental health related to these drugs. However, the causal direction is not easy to detect. Drugs induce mental health problems, but also mental health issues lead to drug abuse. This remains quite a puzzle for scientists to disentangle.
Additionally, the link to smoking and addiction to nicotine is a frequently observed corollary. Studying just one single source of health problems and addiction might be too restrictive to learn about the whole set of causal effects and casualties. For the time being we seem to jump from one field of attention to the next one ignoring the multiple interrelated factors at hand. 
EURO 2024
Before the EURO 2024, (European soccer championship) has even started, the host country Germany and the DFB- foundation for culture joined forces for a remarkable exhibition. In the “National Gallery of Contemporary Art” and next to the Berlin Hauptbahnhof a provocative video installation is mounted that uses the imagery of soccer (football) to portray the life and atmosphere associated with soccer. Injuries on the playing field, but even more so injuries caused by violent groups among the spectators create an emotionally charged representation before, during and after the match. The role of the umpire is central in the match and in the cultural project. Shattered dreams are part of the game for players as well as spectators. Visual impressions have contributed enormously to spectacular success of football on television. The masses of viewers has created a big business of television rights and merchandising products as well. The DFB Kulturstiftung undertakes great efforts to open up the discussion about soccer in a critical way through art projects. The entry into the installation resembles the entry of players through a tunnel into the huge stadium. The world of soccer has multiple links to physical and psychic violence. The installation “Winner” signed by Marianna Simnett challenges the media’s largely beautiful videos about the world of football. In the ocean of enthusiasm this exhibition is just a tiny grain of salt, adding spice to life.
Forecasting floods
As floods as becoming more frequent and more severe forecasting of such events is crucial. The recent example in Bavaria (Germany) of the Danube river (2nd longest in Europe) has demonstrated the role of forecasting to spur adequate behavior of people living in areas at risk of flooding. With the weather forecast announcing lots of rain for a large area the forecasting of floods needs to follow closely these trends. It is not only a question of expectations, but an issue of adaptive expectations for people to adopt appropriate precautions. In retrospect the early forecasts turned out to be fairly accurate in terms of the peak of flooding to be expected in June 2024. The Bavarian “Hochwassernachrichtendienst” (no joke, one word) forecasted on the 2nd of June about 7.50 as the peak to be reached in 2 days in the city of Kelheim. This was beyond the usual 4 warning levels based on an escalation scale. The forecast was beyond the frequent flooding levels established in the last decades. People and emergency services would have to adapt their expectations accordingly. Renewing forecasts is essential to guide people and services in their efforts to deal with emergencies and repair damages as flood levels recede. Management of crises critically depends on forecasting even if they are obviously prone to error margins which should usually be reported as well just like in weather forecasts. Adaptive expectations are key in combination with forecasts to ensure survival.
Adaptive Expectations
In economics it is important to understand the concept of adaptive expectations. We all form expectations about prices and inflation, but there is more than just simple expectations. These expectations guide our behaviors in many domains. If we expect a drastic price change for goods and/or services we shall most likely modify our behavior in response. We might want to advance a purchase to take advantage of currently lower prices in the expectation of higher costs later on. Most people would follow the price changes on a regular basis and adapt their expectations according to the updated information. It is an important process as there are millions of people who do this and this process drives price levels in many countries. In Europe we would like to see not only inflation, but also expectations about inflation to be around the target level of 2% per year. After the high price rises of energy and food (Putin’s war) as well as the disrupted supply chains (Covid-19 crisis) we were unsure, whether we would have to adapt our expectations for the coming years. The credit crunch in the last few years forced people to adapt spending plans and expenditures. We seem to have overcome these major crises due to rapid adaptive expectations. The crucial mechanism to achieve this is a timely and open communication of changes. Media have a role to play to not only spread the information, but to explain underlying reasons. This contributes to a widespread understanding of basic economic principles that helps countries to navigate stormy weather. It is like players of chess who adapt their strategy after the other player has acted or not according to their expectations. It’s simple, isn‘t it?
