Tag: social

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Social promise

In the beginning and middle of the 2020s the social promise to younger generations has been broken. The latest figures from the USA reveal that 2 million students (WSJ 2025-6-25 A3) who have financed their studies and potential social mobility by taking out a substantial loan are very likely to default on their credits. This observation was less a surprise to labor market analysts as the stalling of student hiring in many countries has happened for several years now. The more surprising finding is that the Wall Street Journal 2025-6-25 has been reporting on this. Banks or universities who are highly exposed to this kind of risk will themselves become downgraded for their credit rating. Higher interests for universities means higher fees and higher student loans eventually. The social promise to reach higher status and earnings through higher education as the social promise of the meritocratic society becomes an illusion. Investors in student housing might also find the sector less juicy for them. Students and their parents were taken hostage by an excessive commercialization and commodification od education. Lifelong learning is a still a promising route to revitalize the social promise.

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Contextual Vision

The attempt to define a sociology of vision has had a hard time to build on hard evidence that vision may depend on context or in a broader sense your visual heritage. A standard definition of context in vision highlights the areas around a focal point. The findings by Krupin et al. (2025) show through the comparison of persons from very different populations that our vision depends on our cultural background. It is the social background and upbringing in a specific cultural setting, which determines what we see in an image at first sight.  The so-called Coffer illusion test (Deregowski 2017) reveals what we see in an image spontaneously and maybe after some longer staring at the image or doing it repeatedly, we learn to see that there is more to see than our original impression. Depending on our cultural heritage we might focus unconsciously on rectangular or round shapes in a geometric image. This fundamental finding questions the view that there is only one universal kind of vision common to all humans. In fact, there is variance around what we see and thereby how we perceive an image. This research provides a justification to delve also into the field of a sociology of the visual. Because of the common term in informatics “WYSIWYG”, (what you see is what you get), we might  spend more efforts on research of how human vision is shaped over generations or according to social background. We know that in some images different people see different things. What appears as a splendid opportunity for some, is a very risky situation for others. Eyes are so closely wired to our brain that inscriptions of vision on the brain functioning are quite likely. The plasticity of this process over the life course remains a crucial topic to understand the process(es) of how a person’s social background shapes her/his vision.

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Fertility Fecundity

The scientific debate around changes in fertility has focused on social, economic and cultural factors to explain the drop in total fertility rates in OECD countries. The baby boom years of the 1950s and early 1960s had come to an end following the spread of new forms of birth control like contraception from the late 1960s onwards. The trend is very obvious and yet, the explanations of the trend might lack a more profound analysis of fecundity in addition to the socio-economic explanations. Shakkebaek et al. (2025) point for example to the little known effects of environmental (pollution) factors on the biological reproduction capability of humans (men and women).
Additionally, psycho-social factors like “the German Angst” fear about future developments in many social and economic fields might have direct effects, but also indirect effects on human biology. We know still very little about such feedback loops or feedback effects. We are more convinced, than we actually have hard evidence, that the BSP, SPB or PSB (B=Bio, S=Social, P=Psycho) spheres are interwoven, but an ambitious research agenda is called for to enlighten the issue. The big invisible elephant in the room might be environmental issues that enter into the fertility equations more than we have expected for many years. A nice working hypothesis for an ambitious and overdue research agenda.

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Artist Development

For many artists it takes years before they find their idiosyncratic style. Testing different forms of art before zooming in on a particular style of art is the  common trajectory for most artists. Maybe the art marker and collectors of art are in search of a “defining style” for an artist so the uniqueness becomes more easily identifiable. Being part of a group of artists has been beneficial as well. The “Neue Nationalgalerie” in Berlin makes this development of an artist, in this case Lygia Clark transparent through the organization of a retrospective devoted to her evolution from abstract paintings towards participative and more organic forms of art. Berlin offers to interact with the pieces at the exhibition. You become part of the exhibition and the happening of art instantaneously. The form stays the same, the persons interacting change permanently. The piece of art is never the same. Just the idea of it thrives. In the Corpo Colletivo the performers wear an overall, all of them are linked to each other and movements happen organically as a group rather than individually. This is like a tutorial in sociology as individuals move as part of a collective body and feel the embeddedness and multiple links to other persons (Image: Corpo Collectivo 1970, exhibit in Berlin 2025)

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Aufklärung Enlightenment

The period of the enlightenment is a historically defined time period of the late 17th and the whole 18th century. Although often associated only with Europe as its origin, the American contributions and influences have been far-reaching as well, just thinking of the “Declaration of Independence“. This historical period is, however, most interesting through the unrivalled contribution and pivotal point to the history of ideas. The exhibition and catalogue on the “Aufklärung – Enlightenment” by the German Historical Museum in Berlin exposes many of the historical editions of books that “made the enlightenment”. Philosophical writings and readings (Immanuel Kant: Kritik der …) of the period (especially in German) are tough even for native speakers of German, unlike reading of French (e.g. Jean-Jacques Rousseau) or English (e.g. John Locke) contributions to the enlightenment. Maybe this is already one of the reasons why in France the revolutionary ideas were put into practice through population-wide political movements.
The historical period of the enlightenment came to a close in the early 19th century (1806 another pivotal year). The English or French terms of enlightenment or lumière maybe be interpreted in a way that other historical periods like the medieval ages were periods of darkness, even later periods again did not live up to the idealist prerogatives of the evolution of humanity. The German term “Aufkärung” has its etymological roots more in the action associated with “to enlighten”. This hints at the continuing process of the ideas of the enlightenment in modern terms the process of individualisation, tolerance and autonomy.
There many valuable short interviews shown in the exhibition and Jürgen Habermas contributed a short closing statement to the catalogue of the exhibition on the unfinished project of the “Aufklärung” inviting us to continue also with the “Kritik der Aufklärung”. After all the enlightenment did not save us from repeated events like “Apokalyses“.
(Image: Émilie du Châtelet, below book on Newton Physics in DHM Enlightenment exhibition 2025).

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Time Concepts

Tell me about your concept of time. How do you define time? Answers to this question are likely to depend on your upbringing, affinity to a specific scientific discipline or epistemological belief(s). Aristotle defines time to be subordinate to the more basic principle of change. To understand change we need the concept of time. Two points in time define time, intermediate points are possible, which might be interpreted as a precursor of infinitesimally short spells of time. To explain change, Aristotle refers to his concept of time. Other concepts of time build on the notion of succession of events or sequences of events.
Clocks going round in circles have been used to show the progression of time independent of events. Beams of atoms later allowed for more precision of time keeping. The prevalent concept of time still is dominated by the idea of time as an arrow, usually depicted in some diagram resemblance based on the Cartesian coordinate system, but usually starting at 0 or a particular point in time as diagrams in economics.
Following on from the old concept of change and time, we still claim for causality in most day-to-day experiences or for social processes the link to a chronological progression of time. In statistical analyses building on time-stamped occurrences we may use event history analyses or stochastic differential equations to analyze (social) change depending on one or several (earlier) factors. Even the theory of deterministic chaos, which is applied in weather forecasts for example, arises from the sequence of point of measurements.
Mainly since Isaac Newton we cherish the notion of a universal time, which helps us to coordinate different locations on our planet with reference to the Greenwich mean time. Other concepts of time make use of infinity of time and how to deal with this. Life before, or life after death, are human constructs trying to make time understandable or at least manageable for us beyond our own living time. Depictions of time in the arts, paintings or music opens up yet another vast space of thinking about, as well as, experiencing time. We did have and still do have a great time thinking about time.

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Mindmap Me

Tools like artificial intelligence allow all sorts of transformations and depictions. The photo editing tools are widespread and particularly popular among the young users. My own transformative exercises, latest with www.bairbe.me, have yielded interesting insights, well worth an intergenerational playmate. For the guys there is the www.yobrick.com version for brick gamers.
The App “Canvas” allowed me to delve deeper into my own mind by giving instructions of how to create an image of the structure of the blog entries on this webpage. Of course, it is not (yet) a real AI-generated content map, but it is only a matter of time until such tools will exist. After all, this would be just an arranged and rearranged list of contents using the hyperlink structure of the texts as well.
For the time being, I derive my own structure of the blog entries by topics, categories and tags including the hyperlinks or internal referrals. Interlinkages are mostly stated explicitly. However, there are many implicit links, which are obvious to some, but not others. AI-systems could use occurrences of words,  synonyms and antonyms . Colors in addition to bubble sizes and (in)direct lines may complement such mindmaps. This can help to reveal another, additional layer to connections between categories or tags. The Ai-generated image shown below was created with the APP Canvas as a first approximation and AI-augmented test version in form of abstract images).
Next steps on the way to understand human intelligence and, maybe, augment it with a next generation AI-system would use a colored-3D version of such a mindmap and use the chronological evolution of the blog posts in a kind of evolutionary animation. This should allow us to go beyond the usual psychological classification of fluid and crystallized intelligence. We might come to grips what it means to be “in a Paris state of mind” or when hallucinations become overwhelming.

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Corridorisation Connectivity

In some cities, “I love Paris” (Jazz Song), we admire the “breath-taking” large corridors, right in the centre of the city. This has been the outcome of the urban planning in the 18th century. Haussmann designed large parts of Paris with huge corridors despite the medieval narrow streets in some of the arrondisements”. Ease of traffic, fewer riots and representative housing became the new mantra of urban planning and superb boulevards.
In the 21st century it is about time to question the notion and social process of corridorisation. This has been accomplished in a paper by Fatima Tassadq et al. (2025). Modern infrastructure like fibre-optic cables, energy or water networks are easiest to deploy in urban spaces with large corridors than the complex narrow inner cities with supposition of different kinds of network layers. The grand ideas of the 18th century should be questioned from time to time and some districts that have escaped the corridorisation might well have a particular charm about them, maybe just because they seem to escape the rational approach of making and structuring space by means of large corridors. Large corridors separate city districts and they are a major driving force of gentrification.
The rationality of corridors has some roots in maths or physics of complexity. A recent paper by Shanshan Wang et al. (2024) reports the surprising finding that the transport corridors in several cities across the globe allow for a 1.3 times the distance of transport networks compared to the so-called direct linear “bird’s flight line”. Hence, corridorisation is (has been) a rather pervasively applied model of urban planning.
Alternative approaches advocate in favor of the 15-minutes walking distance city. All amenities like shops, schools, maybe work and services should be reachable within a 15 minutes walk. This does include “walking corridors” that facilitate (social) connectivity in inner cities. Cyclists also claim their corridors or fast lanes across cities, which underlines the pertinence to take corridorisation seriously and apply the concept with care.
In any case, social connectivity is key. The big social media platforms operate similar to the traffic infrastructure in the 21st century and provide huge corridors to knowledge and people. We only realize this once a service (for example tiktok) or the internet altogether gets disconnected. We have moved from (social) categorisation to (social) corridorisation as technology and rationalisation have taken the upper hand to structure our (social) lives.

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Artists networking

Creating a network between rather idiosyncratic artists is no easy task. The more they develop a unique style separate from other painters mixing with other artists can be a challenge because you might find yourself in the position to continually defend your new style. Therefore, building a network of artists that understands the concept or emotion that drives you is a great advantage. In the catalog of the Caillebotte exhibition in the Musée d’Orsay Paris the map of living and working spaces of Caillebotte and his artists’ friends like Claude Monet is a great way to demonstrate the degree of networking and creative spaces that propelled the impressionist movement. The galleries and greater exhibitions of the impressionists took place in the vicinity of the established art institutions, but were not admitted into the traditional exhibition centers like the Louvre. The map from the catalog provides insights into the cognitive map of Paris which Caillebotte had in mind at his time. Artists see cities as opportunity spaces which facilitate or impede the creative processes.

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Animal Longevity

  1. From time to time it is interesting to study animals from many species to maybe learn from them about longevity. Roberto Salguero-Gómez (LINK) developed a sociality continuum and compared 152 species across 13 taxonomic classes. The study reiterates and generalizes the many studies of single species and finds that „more social species live longer, have more generation time and longer reproductive windows“.  Social structures amongst animals of the same species influence survival and reproduction as basic demographic processes. These processes determine to a large extent the size of animal populations. Sociality appears to be a major contributor to longevity compared across species. These processes determine the survival of rather solitary species like panda bears (running higher risks of extinction) compared to populations of bees with rather hierarchical predefined social structures. The spotted hyenas developed cooperative hunting and communal care which allows for effective survival compared to other species. Sociality is specific to species and therefore largely determined by genetic factors. Nature rather than nurture is at work. However, species where reproduction occurs later allow for learning curves of sociality. In other words even within species there is scope to improve longevity through sociality. Migration patterns or experience with migration might be yet another determinant of survival or longevity as climate change poses new challenges to many species.
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Career Criminals

From a life course perspective it is not easy to define a colloquial term like career criminal. A person who has been convicted for a single crime and has served his/her sentence should be allowed full integration into society. Even a repeated offender should not be stigmatized or labeled as career criminal. However, this is exactly what the NS-state did (traveling exhibition across Germany and Austria: „Die Verleugneten“). These persons were subject to targeted charges for criminal offenses they „might“ commit eventually. The term „community alien“ or „asocial“ were also used to refer to persons that did not fit into the dominant Nazi doctrine of „Volk“. It took 75 years until these persons could receive a recognition and a recompense for their unfounded discrimination and incarceration. In concentration camps the so-called asocial or career criminals were at the highest risk of further prosecution and death. Great that the stumbling Stones include these victims as well, as a way to remember these crimes against humanity. Beware of definitions of social groups which are based on totalitarian ideologies.

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Zerreissprobe

The term „Zerreissprobe“ has been chosen by the curator team of the Neue Nationalgalerie In Berlin for the Retrospective of „Art between politics and society“ in the years 1945-2000. In this time period after the 2nd World War until the other „fin du siècle“ the politics of creating a new world order, the cold war and the liberalization of societies had profound impacts on art as well. The positioning of art in the dynamic context and conflicts of these decades is quite well reflected in the title of the exhibition. The English title „extreme tension“ suggests somehow that these years were rather extreme compared to ?, probably today? Although on the territory of Ukraine we witness a hot war rather than a cold war initiated by Putin‘s Russian imperial illusions. The cited work of Günter Brus „Zerreissprobe“ is translated as „stress test“. And maybe, this translation characterizes the post war period even better as these years are a forerunner of what happened after 2000. We continue to be put to tests in politics and societal developments. Accomplishments from the last century are put to crude tests again. Solidarity of people and nations are under pressure to demonstrate their reliability under extreme tension or stress. Art throughout the 5 decades of the last century was a precursor of stress tests for politicians and challenged society in its basic understandings. The comments on the notice board next to the exhibition show the themes of tension in the 2020s. Tensions in families and partnerships, often more extreme around christmas trees, have taken center stage for younger visitors of the exhibition. Sociological research has observed such trends and coined this societal phenomenon „individualization“.  Art embedded in society seems to be part of that evolution as well. Art movements are less visible as collective movements. Artists appear more individualistic or ideosyncratic nowadays, just less inclined to be part of a defining larger group. If artists are no longer avantgarde but rather followers of societal trends, the whole „raison d‘être“ of art changes as well. We are likely to witness yet another „ Zerreissprobe“. Cuts to art and culture budgets constitute an additional „ Zerreissprobe“ in the original sense of the word and of art between politics and society in 2024/2025.

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Cupid at Work

The last 11 entries in this blog focus on  conceptual thoughts as a contribution to the history of ideas with an extension to modern concepts. Our societies, management of companies and personal  development are conceived under the conceptual framework of these concepts. Take the 1st letter of each term and it reads like “cupid at work“, easy to remember and enumerate.
Take each term as  a prism through which you frame your life course, an enterprise or a society. The 3 levels by 11 concepts matrix is a starting point to scan empirical examples for substance.
Complexity, Uncertainty, Plurality, Intersectionality, Dosage.

Ambiguity, Temporality,

Woke-ability, Organics, Resilience, Keys,
(Image: Peter van Lint, Jupiter embraces Cupid, 1636, MRBAB 2024)

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On Keys

Keys may open multiple doors. Even a single key can open many locks, if constructed in the appropriate way. The obverse of key is also key, at least in the function of keys to lock doors. Hence the trick of the key is its dialectic function (open/close) of access. We practice the functioning of this binary thinking (1= open, 0= closed) several times a day. Even binary thinking can become very complex in case you consider a bunch of keys or organized as a ring of keys. With a plurality of locations or rooms (home, work, leisure) the uncertainty to have the fitting key to the lock in question at your disposable becomes a bit of a puzzle. Here we are, trial and error enter the stage for most of us. Don’t worry, there are digital tools to solve the problem for you, but then the whole issue of trust comes into play more forcefully. Sharing is not only caring, but also daring. Transponders replace keys and passwords have become the new “passe partout”. This leads to the brave new world of encryption as the keyfactor for security. Encryption is key. Are you already encrypting or still turning keys?
Keys are key to understanding as well. Artists in Berlin-Schöneberg combined the portraits of persons and their bundles of keys next to each other. Keys seem to reveal key personality traits of a person. Life course researchers may investigate the “first ownership” of a key to a room, an apartment or the family home as a factor of independence, even freedom to move. Handing over the keys of a car or your home to a significant other may mark looming restrictions due to health issues.
Anyway, what is your favourite key in music? More a fan of serial music or 12-tone music?

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On Resilience

There are at least 2 definitions of resilience: (1) a material definition points at the “ability to return to an original form or position after being compressed, extended or curved, and (2) a immaterial or psychological definition. The latter one describes the ability to recover, be happy or successful anew having overcome a bad or challenging experience. The American psychological literature defines resilience in the shortest form as “positive adaptation despite adversity”. The psychological construct is linked to a positive life span perspective of personal development. Other areas of application range from “resilient investments”, “resilient industries” to single resilient societies or intergovernmental organizations like the European Union or NATO.
The challenges to resilience increase with complexity of societies and social as well as technical systems. As supply chains have become longer in time and travelling longer distances as well, the improvement of resilience has become a steep challenge for globalization. Reorganizing supply chains with “own sourcing” as in countries which are cut-off from international trade will have huge consequences on sending and receiving countries.
Last, but not least, countries like Ukraine demonstrate the fact and virtue of resilience after more than 1000 days of the massive Russian invasion of its country, which threatened its survival. Resilience works best in networks of organizations and countries. Solidarity is a fundamental building block of resilience as well. Donations and funds support activities that foster resilience.

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On Woke-ability

The past particle of “to awake” is “woke“. As early as the 1960s the term woke has appeared in a New York Times article to reflect the idea that in the African-American History movement you woke up to a new movement, leaving behind discriminatory practice and rhetoric. The definition of woke in dictionaries refers to an awareness of social facts and injustices. Additionally, the use of woke has implied a need to act upon injustices due to social and/or ethnic origin. Elements of the woke movement were the use of more general non-discriminatory terms like people of color (POC) in official documents and revisions of textbooks for pupils. Subsequently, the application of the term woke spread to other social concerns like the discrimination of LGTBQ+ people in many societies.
The underlying concern was and still is (1) to recognize the discrimination and disadvantages faced by many groups in society and (2) a call for changing the way we talk about it and (3) a shift of policies to counter social injustices. Societies differ in the capacity of “woke-ability”, i.e. the capability to address social inequalities of various types including intersectionality. Societies have never simply been only homogenous. Heterogeneity, plurality and complexity are much better suited to represent societies, regions or countries.  It is our willingness to deal with these complexities in an open way which includes the “woke-ability” of social phenomena. Acknowdge a social problem and act upon it. Change the way we talk about a problem and the discoursive practice in general are important steps to address old and new social problems. For example, over the last 50years the discourse with respect to handicapped persons has evolved and the Paris 2024 Paralympics have made this clear to the public on a global scale.
(Image: Installation of Daniel Boyd in the Martin Gropius Bau, Berlin 2023)

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On Temporality

Time is passing, or is it? We tend to confound time, with passing of time or an occurrence at a specific point in time. Time has a static use, which refers to a date of birth or date of death. Time refers to durations like the lifetime or time in office of a person or a political leader. In most such cases time is considered as a continuous and linear process. The concept of temporality questions these common perspectives on time to allow additional time perspectives in the description and understanding of time.
Temporality is linked to a more flexible view on the periodization of history. The time before and after the 12 years of Nazi-terror will then be part of the extended periodization of the Nazi-Regime in Germany and Europe. Similarly, temporality widens the perspective on social phenomena by linking historical events to the time before and maybe even to what follows, seen as a consequence of the temporal and spacial co-evolution.
A deviation from the static view of time and a rigid periodization of fascism allows to study the Russian male dominated political authoritarianism as a new wave of fascism in Europe, which negates the right of existence of the state of Ukraine in its neighborhood.
Temporality expresses the need to go beyond a simplel periodization to include a spacial dimension  in the defintion of time, much like modern physics does in relativity theory. Temporality, therefore, opens up a “thought space” beyond just the timing of events, which may challenge many of our day-to-day experiences. Cultures with a different understanding of time or the pace of time become a “sound board” for our way of considering and being captured in a time space. Probably many artists are forerunners in playing with time and the way time is “treating” them. Most of them face(d) hardship during their lifetime, but have an extended “after life” in terms of reputation. Some contribute to the perodization in the arts and of their time. They all shape(d) temporality.
(Image: extract from Hans Bol, 1593 Ring Jousing in front of a pond inan  imaginary city, MRBAB, Brussels)

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On ambiguity

Ambiguity is defines as something which can have more than precisely defined meaning. In legal affairs or other domains this may cause confusion and invites discussions or clarification. It has become even a personality trait and a competence to endure ambiguity. If a manager distributes tasks, ambiguity creates a potential for misunderstanding. However, ambiguity may also leave room for self-organization that people might like or be afraid of. Hence. handling of ambiguity is something of a skill that you are able to operate in less well or even undefined situations or circumstances. In such cases you have make decisions yourself and take responsibility later on for your decision. Creating ambiguity or ambiguous situations is a technique in art as well. To throw into doubt what previously was the received wisdom challenges people and institutions. The ways to handle ambiguity become a challenge to the performance of individuals or institutions. In dialectic thinking you think of something as well as the opposite. The result is an ambiguity which you might want to resolve. Quantum physics created a similar challenge to classical physics as more than one kind of behavior of particles is possible. Ambiguity might be more the rule than the exception despite our continuous efforts to disentangle ambiguity.

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On Intersectionality

Society deals with individualization or individualism in various forms. One way is to take each social group as a specific singular case. This is reasonable and justified in many instances. There are cases where this form of dealing with specific social groups comes to limits. Following the rationale of plurality and individualism it has become common practice to address each target group in a specific manner. Intersectionality, however, acknowledges the overlapping of target groups, which necessitates a more specialized approach to intersecting (social) phenomena. Gender might not be the single most important factor to describe a person, just as age is a concept of various intersections. Chronological age versus age defined through biomarkers demonstrate the variety and potential for intersectionality. The Paralympics 2024 in Paris gave another positive example of intersectionality as extraordinary persons achieved previously unimaginable world records in specicialized disciplines. Individualization and classification is only a first step in the scientific endeavour, the analysis of intersectionality is an additional step to consider in a broad range of fields beyond the social sciences.
(Image: Exposition Isa Genzken 75/75 in Neue Nationalgalerie 2023)

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Ranking Enterprises

The Spanish economic newspaper has published on its front page an updated ranking of the top 10 Spanish companies using environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria (see below). elEconomista.es on 2024-10-12 shows through this updated ranking that ESG criteria continue to be relevant information for investors. It is not just a nice to have information but gives important information on the sustainability record of a company. Continuous monitoring is key to show and reward the efforts and investments companies have made to improve sustainability. This information needs large distribution in order to keep up the awareness that there is more to a balance sheet than just turnover, profit margins, debts and investment. Churning of employees creates costs to society as a whole as well. Any early information on ESG indicators, therefore, allows a much broader assessment of the full impact of enterprises, 360 degrees and over time. Certainly a good example to follow up on.

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Couch Cottage

As vacation time is approaching, we ask ourselves, whether to choose the comfortable couch or the remote cottage. This is the proposition of Roger-Pol Droit in “Le Monde Livres” (“Sagesse 2024: cabane ou canapé“, 28.6.2024 p.36) based on the reading of “Ma cabane sans peine” by Alain Guyard and “Philosophie du Canapé” by Stefano Scrima.
The couch stands for the lazy life or “vita contemplativa“, thinking about philosophical topics that need a certain form of laid back behaviour to allow your brain to sort out tricky questions or to ask yourself, what is, was or will be important questions. Many academics shut themselves away from the busy life outside to reserve more time for couch thinking. The usual products of this activity practised on chairs and couches is more or less digestable books. Some make a comfortable living out of this active inactivity.
The cottage approach follows another longstanding philosophical tradition associated with Dionysos. Living a simple life in a remote place, but full of life’s enjoyment allows to exalt in the dithyrambic atmosphere of the countryside.
Rather than the either, or issue: couch or cottage, I go along with the dialectics of Hegel, who forms out of thesis and antithesis the synthesis. In our example this is obviously equal to “take the couch to the cottage“, problem solved. Additionally Nietzsches version of “Die fröhliche Wissenschaft” seems to prolong the dialectic experience of going beyond the “neither, nor” dichotomy to combine both couch and cottage.
You sensed it. It will be a rather exciting summer break to pursue on the many roads to “Sagesse 2024” (Wisdom 2024).

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Art or Profession

In political science it is a long tradition to discuss, whether politics is an art or a profession. The idealist tradition, going back as far as Plato in ancient Greek history of ideas, puts the exercise of politics near the exercise of a divine art to do justice. Much later in the history of ideas Max Weber rather bluntly defined politics as a profession (original in German) that requires to master a set of competences.
Recent elections in Europe (EU, France, UK, Belgium) and around the globe (India, USA) in 2024 add interesting case studies to the old question. Is politics an art or a profession?
In modern politics the life course or life cycle of a politician consists of at least 2 phases: (1) the electoral campaign before and (2) the potential of governing or opposition. Each phase requires a different set of competences. In phase 1 it is important to propose a new or different ideal from the previous government. Charismatic presentation of an ideal set of policies is asked for.  In phase 2 it is required of the politician to forge compromises, either within the own political party or beyond boundaries of political parties. Certainly, in multi-level governance systems like the European Union additional forms of coalition building across countries is required, intercultural competence or language skills are an advantage here.
The 2 phases of the life cycle of a politician require different sets of skills. Charisma as mentioned by Plato and Weber can get a politician into power and charismatic leadership can get you through a lot of coalition building. On the other hand, modern campaigning in repeated elections is a specialized competence that resembles marketing expertise as well as “reading of statistics” and in-depth analyses of shifting or stable preferences of electorates and to succinct conclusions on this basis. Running a political party or a parliamentary group is yet another leadership skill just like communication skills that, beyond many prejudices, can be learned.
In a nutshell. Politics is an art and a profession. The art consists in the variable combination of different sets of competences. Art requires competences just as professions can be turned into art.  Welcome to the hybrid world of modern politics. (Image extract from MAD Paris, Picasso, Schiaparelli)

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Cannabis Alcohol

The use of cannabis and/or alcohol is yet another question where we are used to ask questions in the form of: either the or the other? Over generations we have gotten used to no longer ask for each do you or don’t you. With the controlled liberalization or legalization of cannabis in some Western European states the framing of the question is more like you do the one or the other, particularly for many younger persons.
Decriminalization of both drugs in small quantities is apparently reducing crimes link to drug use and drug dealing. On the other hand, the thresholds for doing drugs are lower than they used to be. In inner cities it is therefore no longer a surprise to find both kinds of drugs with addictive potential next to each other (see image below). We know that it is a slippery road from regular drug use to uncontrolled dependency and personal disaster. For cannabis a study published in the Lancet (Petrilli et al. 2022) added the importance of the potency of tetrahydrocannabinol to the estimate of risks. This is similar to the studies that differentiate the level of alcohol in drinks consumed. The higher the concentration, the higher the risks. A simple proportional relationship prevails in both drugs. The cumulative effects of consuming both together might have quite surprising non-linear effects.
The big issue is the risks of mental health related to these drugs. However, the causal direction is not easy to detect. Drugs induce mental health problems, but also mental health issues lead to drug abuse. This remains quite a puzzle for scientists to disentangle.
Additionally, the link to smoking and addiction to nicotine is a frequently observed corollary. Studying just one single source of health problems and addiction might be too restrictive to learn about the whole set of causal effects and casualties. For the time being we seem to jump from one field of attention to the next one ignoring the multiple interrelated factors at hand.

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Broken Promises

In a library catalogue, the entry of « broken promises «  returns more than 3000 times that the title has been used. « Promises kept » is almost as popular. A rapid inspection of titles reveals that the former titles suggest more factual analyses, whereas the latter is frequently used in the form of an imperative in combination with “should be kept”. The book by Fritz Bartel “The Triumph of Boken Promises …” (2022) demonstrates the importance of the concept of broken promises in the social sciences. The rivalry between socialism, capitalism and the rise of neoliberalism is strongly influenced by the way they handle the breaking of promises made to their respective societies. The promises of increasing wealth and wellbeing have been part of all political regimes. To keep these promises is a completely different story. Especially since the first and second oil crises and many other kinds of crises, it has become much harder to keep these promises. Working hours, retirement ages or minimum wages are all at risk to no longer live up to the promises made in earlier periods. This has put welfare states under pressure that millions of voters perceive politics as a “game” of broken promises. Socialist political regimes like Russia are ready to use physical violence to shut up people that remind leaders of these broken promises. In democracies the ballot box is often used to sanction governments that do not live up to expectations of previous promises. A lot is about public infrastructure which is failing people. Migration, education, social and labor reforms are on top of the political agenda if it comes down to broken promises. The elections of the European Parliament gave many a chance to express their discontent about various broken promises. Maybe democracy is better in providing forms of letting off steam early and protracted protests rather than the Russian way to suppress any critical analysis, let alone opposition movements. Just like the move from industrial production to services as production models, with AI we are likely to see similar problems and probably also broken promises. The challenge is huge and promises should be made with an eye of what promises could be kept.

Public swimming pool closed for reconstruction 2024
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Forecasting floods

As floods as becoming more frequent and more severe forecasting of such events is crucial. The recent example in Bavaria (Germany) of the Danube river (2nd longest in Europe) has demonstrated the role of forecasting to spur adequate behavior of people living in areas at risk of flooding. With the weather forecast announcing lots of rain for a large area the forecasting of floods needs to follow closely these trends. It is not only a question of expectations, but an issue of adaptive expectations for people to adopt appropriate precautions. In retrospect the early forecasts turned out to be fairly accurate in terms of the peak of flooding to be expected in June 2024. The Bavarian “Hochwassernachrichtendienst” (no joke, one word) forecasted on the 2nd of June about 7.50 as the peak to be reached in 2 days in the city of Kelheim. This was beyond the usual 4 warning levels based on an escalation scale. The forecast was beyond the frequent flooding levels established in the last decades. People and emergency services would have to adapt their expectations accordingly. Renewing forecasts is essential to guide people and services in their efforts to deal with emergencies and repair damages as flood levels recede. Management of crises critically depends on forecasting even if they are obviously prone to error margins which should usually be reported as well just like in weather forecasts. Adaptive expectations are key in combination with forecasts to ensure survival.

Hochwassernachrichtendienst Bayern 2024-6
Kelheim on Danube
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Hospital Bias

Asking people about differences between private and public hospitals, you are most likely getting answers that the private hospitals deliver superior patient outcomes. Whereas private hospitals seem to have a positive stigma attached to them, public hospitals commonly have a negative stigma. Scientific evaluations are helpful to set the record straight again. The study published in “The Lancet Regional Health” in 2024 shows that in the simple descriptive statistics on several patient outcome indicators, this is what the data showed between 2026 and 2019. However, a more precise statistical analysis reveals that there is also a selective admission to the private and public hospitals in England. Using so-called instrumental variables approaches that account for the selection process between admission to the 2 types of hospitals (private versus public) most of the differences between the hospital types disappear. The underlying mechanism is a sorting of different patients into the private or public hospitals. Put in easy words, for a routine intervention people tend to chose the private hospital, but the more rare and difficult operations were more likely admitted to public hospitals. The number of co-morbidities (heart disease) is also of importance as they might negatively affect patient outcomes. Jumping to conclusions and reinforcing stigma about public or private provision of services hinders progress and an equitable provision of services.
The analysis of a potential selection bias can reveal the “creaming” effect of private provision of (health) services. Just caring for the “easy” or routine cases and avoiding the more difficult and costly cases has economic advantages, but for society as a whole the costs overall remain the same. A good public service in health is a definite asset.

(Image: Exposition Isa Genzken 2023 in Neue Nationalgalerie Berlin)

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Digital Estonia

The progress of Estonia in going digital is quite advanced. The electronic identity card which allows data to be linked to health data and accounts or banking gives an impression of how far-reaching digitalization may go. Great steps have been taken to guide the population on the way to move towards the digital (only) world. Learning and coaching of a huge amount need to take place so that people do not abandon or get lost on the path towards “everything digital”. For the so-called digital natives, who have grown up with the sound of their smartphone at the bedside all the time, this move feels “natural”. Some experienced or silver workers got on track, if they were accompanied in suitable forms. The 65+ population might find it harder to adapt to the permanent use of digital devices for not only getting around in your city, but also to do your tax declaration, pay your dues and vote in elections.
Digitalization is not a goal in itself. It has advantages to reach communities in remote places or islands, but it might alienate older persons that have no other person around to assist them in the digital only world. An easy way to get some social science data to inform the debate is to refer to Eurostat and the surveys with information about the “overall life satisfaction” of people (EU-SILC). Checking for some major countries of the EU and neighbours of Estonia with less digitalization the differences are rather small. In terms of overall life satisfaction (16+ years old) Estonia has been catching up to the EU-average mainly between 2013 and 2021. Since then, stagnation at the EU-average is what the data tell. A quick testing of the hypothesis that the older persons (65+) might not see the past evolution as rosy is reflected in the EU-data as well. Good pensions seem to drive the “happiness” of older persons in the EU more than good digitalization. Eventually the two features of a society will have to go hand in hand to improve life satisfaction to higher levels. (Image: Data Eurostat EU-SILC Life satisfaction 65+, selected countries 2013-2023, retrieved on 2024-4-23, comparison with table all ages here, Data source)

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Series Evaluation

The monitoring of TV series is a serious science. The evaluation of so-called binch viewing has redrawn attention to the field of media studies again. We observe a bit across Europe, following the US experience, the change of TV productions into series that may run over several years. The successful format of a TV series draws advertising to the relatively constant audience. Most series have a particular age group as their target group. Viewing behavior determines time slots allocated. Each group has its own prime time. The publisher of books had their successes with similar series of for example children’s picture books or cartoons. Asterix, Martine and similar book series have basically applied the same “serial” mechanism before. Popular success creates its own dynamics. Therefore the evaluation of such serial productions should stay on our research agenda of the social sciences as well.

In a radio discussion “France Culture” has juxtaposed the 2 currents of series evaluation in a concise way. One current of assessment holds the view that rather than high versus low culture, the debate should take popular culture seriously. It augments the set of experiences as the characters in a TV series live through a kind of “experimental setting” each time anew. The variety of experiences is catching popular attention as they are beyond the scope of the spectator’s usual life settings and thereby a learning opportunity. This highlights the value of the content in the evaluation. This requires a thorough scrutiny of that content to evaluate an emancipatory value of viewing it (Sandra Lauglier, 2023).

An opposing view is defended by Bertrand Cochard (2024) with reference to the conflict about one’ use of free time available to us and how we spend it. His criticism takes issue with the amount of time “lost” by viewers of series. Time is not spent twice. The loss of time alone or side by side rather than spending it with other persons or physically active constitutes a major risk to the social fabric of society.The jury is still out on the issue. We likely see the start of a series of entries on this topic as well.

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AI and PS

AI like in ChatGPT is guided by so-called prompts. After the entry of “what is AI” the machine returns a definition of itself. If you continue the chat with ChatGPT and enter: “Is it useful for public services” (PS), you receive an opinion of AI on its own usefulness (of course positive) and some examples in which AI in the public services have a good potential to improve the state of affairs. The AI ChatGPT is advocating AI for the PS for mainly 4 reasons: (1) efficiency purposes; (2) personalisation of services; (3) citizen engagement; (4) citizen satisfaction. (See image below). The perspective of employees of the public services is not really part of the answer by ChatGPT. This is a more ambiguous part of the answer and would probably need more space and additional explicit prompts to solicit an explicit answer on the issue. With all the know issues of concern of AI like gender bias or biased data as input, the introduction of AI in public services has to be accompanied by a thorough monitoring process. The legal limits to applications of AI are more severe in public services as the production of official documents is subject to additional security concerns.
This does certainly not preclude the use of AI in PS, but it requires more ample and rigorous testing of AI-applications in the PS. Such testing frameworks are still in development even in informatics as the sources of bias a manifold and sometimes tricky to detect even for experts in the field. Prior training with specific data sets (for example of thousands of possible prompts) has to be performed or sets of images for testing adapted to avoid bias. The task is big, but step by step building and testing promise useful results. It remains a challenge to find the right balance between the risks and the potentials of AI in PS.

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AI by AI

It has become a common starting point to use electronic devices and online encyclopedias to search for definitions. Let us just do this for artificial intelligence. The open platform of Wikipedia returns on the query of “artificial intelligence” the following statement as a definition: “AI … is intelligence exhibited by machines, particularly computer systems …“. It is not like human intelligence, but tries to emulate it or even tries to improve on it. Part of any definition is also the range of applications of it in a broad range of scientific fields, economic sectors or public and private spheres of life. This shows the enormous scope of applications that keeps rapidly growing with the ease of access to software and applications of AI.
How does AI define itself? How is AI defined by AI? Putting the question to ChatGPT 3.5 in April 2024 I got the following fast return. (See image). ChatGPT provides a more careful definition as the “crowd” or networked intelligence of Wikipedia. AI only “refers to the simulation” of HI processes by machines”. Examples of such HI processes include the solving of problems and understanding of language. In doing this AI creates systems and performs tasks that usually or until now required HI. There seems to be a technological openness embedded in the definition of AI by AI that is not bound to legal restrictions of its use. The learning systems approach might or might not allow to respect the restrictions set to the systems by HI. Or, do such systems also learn how to circumvent the restrictions set by HI systems to limit AI systems? For the time being we test the boundaries of such systems in multiple fields of application from autonomous driving systems, video surveillance, marketing tools or public services. Potentials as well as risks will be defined in more detail in this process of technological development. Society has to accompany this process with high priority since fundamental human rights are at issue. Potentials for assistance of humans are equally large. The balance will be crucial.