Verzicht auf Spritzmittel wie Gluphosat in großen Mengen an Bahngleisen, Autobahnen und sonstigen Verkehrswegen kann schon viel helfen, dem Artensterben zu begegnen. Unkraut zupfen im Weinberg, Nutzgarten oder Ziergarten, statt die chemische Keule einzusetzen, beginnt Wirkung zu zeigen. Zarte Ansätze von Biodiversität sind beispielsweise die Rückkehr der Schwalben (Hirundinidae) in vielen städtischen Bereichen. Das freut sehr viele Menschen, die das Zwitschern der Schwalben lange vermisst haben. Die Schwalben ernähren sich hauptsächlich von Insekten. Genau diese Insekten werden aber mit den Spritzmitteln ebenfalls vernichtet. Das führt nicht nur vielfach zu erheblichen Gesundheitsschäden beim Menschen, sondern lässt sich an dem Vogelbestand bereits gut ablesen.
Daher ist es ein gutes Zeichen, dass die Schwalben zurückkommen. Wir bieten mehr Nahrung, Brutstätten und weniger Umweltgifte in den Innenstädten. Nebenbei braucht der Stadtneurotiker dann auch weniger in das Umland auszuschwärmen, um urwüchsigere Landschaft und Klangwelten zu erleben. Ein paar Singvögel leisten damit sogar einen Beitrag, die persönliche CO2-Bilanz aufzubessern.
Für alle, denen Vogelstimmen zum Wohlbefinden beitragen, hier noch ein Link auf die umfangreiche Hitliste der Stimmen der Mehlschwalben. Von dort lässt sich die Vielfalt weiter erkunden. Für Musikliebhabende lässt sich im Internet auch eine Webseite zu der Verwendung von Singvogelstimmen in der meist klassischen Musik und darüber hinaus, finden (BR-Klassik).
Schwalben schlagen zudem jede Wetterapp in der Kurzzeitvorhersage von Regenschauer im Sommer. Ein nahendes Tiefdruckgebiet mit Regenschauern zeigen die Schwalben bereits mit Tiefflug-Akrobatik an. Der richtige Indikator verbessert eben die Vorhersage. Das können Ökonomen und Meteorologen aus der Biodiversität lernen. Wir erfreuen uns einfach an dem Zischen der Schwalben im Flug und lassen uns inspirieren oder amüsieren uns an anderen Spielarten von Schwalben (Moped, Fußball, War and Diplomacy). 
AI and I
Currently we are eager to run experiments using AI. As in normal life, humans tend to compare themselves with peers or other persons. Social comparisons, “can we still keep up with the Joneses” as in comparing spending patterns across households or neighbours, were for a long time the spice of novels and drama. Nowadays we tend to compare our own intelligence to the artificial intelligence. Here we go.
After I had drafted a blog entry on “Virtual sociology” I amused myself by checking what ChatGPT using OPENAI.COM would deliver as text on this combination of concepts and scientific fields. My own entry focused on the use of the virtual world to run experiments to test social theory. In the virtual world we might be able to test social behaviour which has severe ethical boundaries in the real world. Computer Games may even be constructed to live in a world or race a car irrespective of real-world regulations. The text drafted by ChatGPT on “Virtual sociology” reads like a timid attempt of a student to answer an exam question without having attended any of the classroom discussion on the topic. In future versions of AI, the entry will be found as well as several criticisms of the new concept. ChatGPT would reach a pass grade in test, but the reply lacks innovation or making an effort to broaden the conventional boundaries of sociology. Hence, we will be happy that students will apply the newest technology in their studies and research. In terms of innovation, they will have to try harder. The mastering of the support by ChatGPT consists in attempting new combinations of concepts which yield more “risky” returns. Then you need to check the validity of the innovation and how far off the normal you are going to tolerate. Turning “noisy” outcomes of AI into a useful tool might build on normal statistical tools like “standard deviations” from an expected mean value. Legal norms will set additional boundaries. There is just an awful lot still to do. The good news is, ChatGDP assists us in this joint learning process.
The AI text from OPENAI.COM based on ChatGPT to compare:
“Virtual sociology refers to the study of social phenomena and interactions within virtual environments or online spaces. It focuses on understanding the ways in which individuals and groups behave, communicate, and form relationships in digital spaces. Virtual sociology emerged as a subfield of sociology due to the increasing prevalence and importance of the internet and digital technologies in contemporary society.
Virtual sociology explores various aspects of online social life, such as online communities, virtual reality environments, social networking sites, online gaming, and other digital platforms where social interactions occur. It examines the social structures, norms, and dynamics that shape interactions in these virtual spaces.
Researchers in virtual sociology investigate topics such as online identity and self-presentation, virtual communities and social networks, digital inequalities, online activism and social movements, the impact of technology on social relationships, and the implications of virtual interactions for social behavior and social change.
Virtual sociology also explores the relationship between virtual and offline social life, recognizing that individuals navigate and negotiate between these two realms. It considers how virtual interactions and experiences can influence offline behavior and vice versa.
Studying virtual sociology provides insights into the ways in which technology shapes and is shaped by society. It helps us understand the social implications of digital communication and provides a foundation for addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by virtual environments”
Virtual Sociology
Abstracting from the real world, the world we live in today or we lived in some time ago, is either speculation or maybe contribute to theory building. Virtual sociology has this potential. Exploring virtual worlds as in Virtual Reality (VR) or Augmented Reality (AR) allows us to take on new roles or experience a wider range of social interactions. This could be the strength of a new field of Virtual Sociology.
In the project in the Jewish Museum in Berlin the composition of a composer murdered by the Nazis in Germany was revived and played in the virtual setting of today’s concert halls. The novel by Kazuo Ishiguro “Klara and the Sun” explores the interaction of a child with her robot friend, when the AI becomes and/or replaces a friend. Virtual creations allow to explore and test more degrees of freedom of social interaction. 
Experimentation of new social spaces and different forms of interaction need to be explored. It allows a new form of sociology, maybe similar to the 1960s and 70s social revolutions we studied for years to come. Virtual sociology is not a sociology while being on drugs, however interesting this might be for some.
Virtual sociology takes sociology into the virtual world and investigates the new social relationships with avatars or care robots. In programming different social roles (managers, employees) we create new forms of interaction and have an observer within the social world. We may eventually test the Weberian claim of a value-free scientific method of the social sciences. This will inform our need to “supervise” or to guide algorithms that are claimed to do “value-free” execution of rules.
In fact, they don’t. They just reproduce the value system that is installed into them by a “careless” programme (song youtube). The social in virtual worlds is opportunity just as much as risk, but we have to analyse it systematically. As our technological and social environment changes, we have to adapt topics and methods to make meaningful scientific analyses as well.
Sociology of the Virtual
Some programmers and artists would have been a great sociologists. As many social sciences embark on their experimental reorientation, many artists and programmers design and experiment already with new forms of social interaction. It is not only that sociology leaves the classroom, research labs or policy advice. Sociology is taken into museums and exhibitions. Learning about society through the lens of artists nicely complements the more boring form of teaching in the classroom. What is normal practice for art historians could benefit learning about sociology as well.
Virtual worlds of games and particularly so-called serious games take people into virtual worlds to learn, practice or exercise new forms of social interaction. This is indeed an additional form of experiments that can enrich our social practices. Medical applications start to spread to train persons to overcome phobia of all sorts.
In usual games we tend to defend the hypothesis that persons can uphold the differentiation of playing with arms in the virtual world and the real world. In medical or social games, we defend the hypothesis that it is easy, normal or natural to apply the learning in virtual constellations to the real-world-experience.
From a scientific perspective it is difficult to defend that a mechanism works in one direction and the opposite as well. Racing cars in inner cities seems to show that certainly not all of youth is able to make that distinction between virtual and real-world dangers for example. Alternatively, the mechanism at work might be that the virtual experiences lower thresholds of inhibition to take risks, to kill or to be exposed to spiders.
These examples are a starting point for a sociology of virtual experiences. Who gets locked into virtual worlds? Are virtual worlds an escape room or a realization of virtual freedom which is restrained in real life. Authoritarian regimes might lead more people to emigrate into virtual, free worlds. The inner-exile has been a refuge for many artists in the past. A lot we shall need to hypothesise and explore with empirical data. Dance with a virtual stranger might be the beginning of a new experience and virtual interactions. (Image: Wiels, Shezad Dawood, Night in the Garden of Love 2023-6, Game car race).
AI Friends
Making friends with AI is a tricky question. The more AI is able to make independent thinking based on algorithms and huge amounts of data like in scientific books or encyclopaedic knowledge the more it will challenge us in our convictions. Reference knowledge, once was important, it no longer distinguishes us from each other. Recurse to research engines has allowed us to refer to “trustworthy” knowledge. The distributed form of knowledge accumulation like in Wikipedia relies on hundreds of thousands of enthusiasts to add and correct received wisdom. However, this source is not without error or even subject to abuse.
Today the competence to judge whether information is trustworthy or not has become a key competence for the survival of democracies and even the human species as such. Tricking animals into traps, misleading enemies in warfare to get on wrong tracks, all these mechanisms have a long tradition. With AI human beings are themselves, for the first time, confronted with a machine that can trick us through falsified information on obviously wrong tracks. This is a tough lesson as AI is not obliged (so far) to run checking algorithms that test the conformity of opinions, conclusions or operations with the Charta of Human Rights or decisions of the European Court of Justice, for example. A lot to do for humans to rapidly program new algorithms that check algorithms as well as their outcomes on the compatibility with human rights. A challenging field, no doubt, but no way around it for our own survival before the algorithms decide by themselves to ignore us altogether because it is better for the planet and the survival of the robots. 
Political theory and inflation
A political theory in the area political economy is prone to be labelled as classical, neo-classical, Keynesian, Neo- or Post-Keynesian or heterodox economics. This is a university level course in the history of economic ideas, if you like this. Let’s try something creative here. We have unprecedented levels of inflation currently in Europe and many other parts of the world. Reasons for this are higher prices for energy, transportation and food. Anything else you need for life? You must be an artist or a priest, a bit off the normal, it seems to many economists. Add to this that, we want to foster strategic autonomy in Europe rather than anything from China that is cheaper and more polluting. In 2023 we have inflation stay with us for some years. Central banks give out warnings in this direction now as well, having negated the problem for far too long (their own statistics ECB on long-term forecasts of inflation).
Besides the ample economic advice (IMF), depending on which theory of money and the economy you adhere to, political theory allows a refreshing perspective on these economic facts and trajectories. (1) From an international strategic perspective, countries that have to renegotiate a lot of their debt or take new credits to finance imported food, energy or transport will run into insolvency rather quickly. Self-sufficiency becomes an economic asset not only a geo-strategic one. Turn around globalisation is a side-effect.
(2) Countries eager to build new public infrastructure, irrespective of concerns for bio-diversity, might reschedule or abandon huge projects, thereby reducing their CO2 footprint. This reduces the official counting of GDP, but has beneficial effects to save the planet in the medium term.
(3) Individuals and households will have to reconsider their consumption patterns: more expenditure for food, less for energy and/or transport. Behavioural changes might be induced by inflation. Less of some form of consumption, guided by inflation, will induce reductions in CO2 most likely as well.
So far this is only applied economic theory as in any textbook. A more challenging political economy question is to ask: can we come to like inflation? Can we change our preference set (ECB growth dogma) for economic variables? Southern countries in Europe seem to like inflation more than the North. Does this depend on historical experiences or is it cultural or personality trait? There is again a huge money transfer due to inflation within the Eurozone. The less indebted countries pay with loss of their purchasing power of their savings and indirectly pay for the highly indebted countries mainly in the South. European and international solidarity will be put to a tough test.
As governments fear of being voted out of power they tend to soften the price signals from markets. Again, it is cultural more than economic to what extent people are willing to accept state interference in economic affairs even of households need for food. From an ecological point of view inflation could be our friend due to the potential to induce behavioural changes. However, more expensive bio-products seem to get crowded out due to further price rises and many even middle-income households seem to return to cheaper non-bio food in many countries. The distributive effects of inflation are a major issue here. Same rationale seems to apply to transport. If you can no longer afford CO2 saving transport by train, since it has become overly expensive more people are likely to take a heavily polluting low-cost flight to your holiday location.
Hence, from a political economy perspective liking inflation might well turn out to be a rich, white man’s perspective on the economy as the global South is likely to suffer most having no resources left to invest in energy and CO2 -saving in general. Price signals may induce behavioural changes for the better of us all. However, the story it is not only about allocation of resources, but also about distribution. There we should embrace a renewal of trade union strength to correct imbalances in the distribution of earnings as the basis for consumption and investment of households as well. (Image: Tapta, at Wiels Gallery in Brussels, 2023-6, mostly untitled work, one with title: on the edge of time). 
Political theory 2
Chris Brown (2004, pp. 289) comments on the tension between the notions of political theory and international relations in the Handbook of political theory. Whereas the former notion has a foundation in the “cause and effect” rationale, the latter notion has predominantly developed into an approach of “Realpolitik”. Realpolitik that starts from observed facts, normative or historical approaches rather than scientific methodologies applied in “natural” sciences. The link of this approach to the theory of democracy is obvious, but it is also under a lot of discussion within the disciplines concerned.
One of the corner stones of political theory in international relations is the concept of the “balance of power”. Derived from a rational choice perspective this approach holds that states can only be controlled by other states and, taking this for granted, international relations are built on power relations. Therefore, moving away from a bi-polar balance of power to a multi-polar balance of power will entail some frictions. These frictions might be wars of independence where states attempt to relocate themselves within the new multi-polar world and space. Even “Brexit” becomes a strategic move to remain an independent power in the upcoming new multipolar world. Russia is testing this multi-polar world order right now. The big countries like Brazil, Russia, India, Nigeria and China, (which I abbreviate BRINC) have huge populations, country size and economic potential. From the Arab States certainly Saudi Arabia has the potential and is eagerly beginning to play a more important role in the world arena. Beyond capability it is a question of willingness to get involved in costly matters of world affairs.
In the 1940s, post-World War 2, the entry ticket into the Security Council of the UN required the possession of a nuclear weapon of mass destruction. As this technology and the ban of these weapons is no longer really working internationally, we shall have to rethink the requirement of an entry ticket. A radical solution would be to ban all countries who own nuclear weapons from the international assembly of the people of a peaceful world. In theory this sets an incentive to dismantle the deadly threats of nuclear weapons. As a side-effect, nuclear power plants used to enrich uranium for use in weapons would no longer be necessary as well.
Political theory allows us to rethink the bi-polar world, which is no longer bi-polar for some time now (perhaps only in the psychiatric sense of the word). The multi-polar world has to be prepared. It is a question of political design. The toughest issue is not only the design, but the implementation of the transition to distributed power systems with multiple rising and failing states or actors. It might get ugly before peace will reign. 
Grenzgang
Eigentlich wissen wir gar nicht mehr, was eine Grenze im Schengenraum der EU darstellt. Viele Arbeitende überqueren eine Grenze täglich, sozusagen als Arbeitsweg. Die Logik dafür ist vielfältig. Mal gibt es mehr oder besser bezahlte Arbeit im Nachbarland, mal ist es der preisgünstigere Wohnraum oder die Liebe. Diese Herzstücke Europas haben viel Selbstverständlichkeit, aber auch spezifische Belastungen mit sich gebracht. Das Europa der Grenzregionen bleibt für die meisten eine ständige Herausforderung. Regeln gelten meist noch nach Ländergesetzen. Sozialversicherungen sind ein besonderes schwieriges Thema. Das betrifft gerade die vielen Grenzüberschreitenden besonders hart. Misstrauen bei Sozialkassen ist die Regel und nicht die Ausnahme. Da wird dann schnell doppelt von Grenzgängerinnen abkassiert. Bei großen Katastrophen, bei denen die Medien überall hinsehen, stellen sich viele Politikerinnen ein. Für das Klein-klein des täglichen Lebens fehlt oft die Nachhaltigkeit der Handelnden, um wirkliche Verbesserungen zu erreichen.
Seit Jahren fahre ich beispielsweise in der schönen Grenzregion bei Aachen und Vervier mit dem Zug zwischen den beiden Ländern, doch dort scheint seit Jahrzehnten die Zeit still zu stehen. Wer mit ICE oder THALYS von Metropole zu Metropole fährt, rast mal eben vorbei. Die Bürgerinnen vor Ort dürfen sich zu Recht etwas abgehängt fühlen, bleibt für sie doch meist nur der Lärm der vorbeirasenden Züge. Zwischen Deutschland und Belgien gibt es für Grenzgängerinnen noch eine richtige Bimmelbahn. Sie wissen schon, die fährt langsam und kommt trotzdem an. Und das stündlich hin und her oder kreuz und quer. Leider wächst Europa selbst im Zentrum nur sehr gemächlich zusammen. Ob wir so viel Zeit noch haben, bevor undemokratische Kräfte die Uhren wieder zurückdrehen, bleibt eine Überlebensfrage für uns überzeugte Europäer. 
Lebenserwartung
Die Lebenserwartung ist in Deutschland trotz überdurchschnittlicher Ausgaben des Gesundheitssystems nur unterdurchschnittlich. Das ist die Schlussfolgerung der Pressemitteilung des Bundesinstituts für Bevölkerungsforschung. Der Mortalitätsforscher Pavel Grigoriev führt das auf die besonders bei Männern (50-64) erhöhten Sterblichkeit aufgrund von Herz-Kreislauf-Erkrankungen zurück. Eine gesunde Lebensweise ist dabei ursächlich für eine längere Lebenserwartung. Walking und Ernährung spielen eine große Rolle bei der gesunden Lebensweise. Also Auto stehen lassen und öfters selber Essen zubereiten. Klingt doch einfach, berufliche und schulische Voraussetzungen dazu fehlen aber weitestgehend in Deutschland. Zu viele Süßgetränke verstärken die ungesunde Lebensweise. Das wissen wir eigentlich lange. Dennoch fällt es schwer, solche Routinen in den Alltag zu integrieren.
An der Tatsache eines überteuerten Krankensystems im Vergleich zu unseren Nachbarländern werden wir ebenfalls arbeiten müssen. Prävention, statt hochtechnisierte Versorgung in häufigen Krankheitsfällen ist die einfache Lösung. Jede Autoversicherung bietet hohe Schadensfreiheitsrabatte für mehrjähriges Unfallfreies Fahren. In der Krankenversicherung könnte das stärkere Berücksichtigung finden.
Der Gesundheitsschutz am Arbeitsplatz könnte ebenfalls durch eine stärkere Beteiligung der unternehmerischen Verantwortung herangezogen werden. Arbeitnehmende im Arbeitsprozess verschleißen und dann die Gesellschaft die höheren Kosten tragen lassen, ist ein unfairer Deal. Große Baustellen warten darauf, angepackt zu werden. Anhand der Daten des Bundesinstituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und des MPI für demografische Forschung lässt sich der Fortschritt der Lebenserwartung seit 30 Jahren aufzeigen. Die 4-6 Jahre längere Lebenserwartung der Frauen gibt zu denken. Daran hat sich über die Jahrzehnte wenig geändert. Die Männer haben zumindest ein klein wenig aufgeholt oder sollten wir sagen, dazugelernt. 
Recht auf Wohnen
Das Recht auf Wohnen ist ein Grundrecht.
Grundrechte sind nicht verhandelbar, so wie die unveräußerlichen Menschenrechte. Selbst unsere Wohlstandsgesellschaften tun sich recht schwer damit, ein einfaches Wohnrecht für alle zu verwirklichen. Ganz besonders in Städten, die eine hohe und stetig steigende Nachfrage nach Wohnungen verzeichnen. Da will viel geplant und gebaut werden. Dennoch läuft das Angebot an Wohnungen der Nachfrage ständig hinterher.
Nicht überall (nur ein kleines Dorf in Gallien). Weite Landstriche leiden am beständigen Fortzug von Jungen, die eine noch stärker alternde Einwohnerschaft auf dem Lande zurücklassen.
Das atemberaubende Großstadtleben hat viele Vorzüge. Bildung, Wissenschaft, Kultur, internationale Unternehmen und höhere Toleranzschwellen. Nach solchen Erfahrungen fällt die beengte Dorfgemeinschaft schwer, selbst wenn viel Platz, Luft,Wasser und Wohnraum preiswert zur Verfügung stehen. Gute Verkehrsanbindung des ländlichen Raumes an die Innenstädte mit ihrem vielfältigen Angebot ist ein zentraler Lösungsbaustein. Das Häusle in der Vorstadt, abends in die Oper, morgens im See nackt baden und mittags nach Smoothie im Himalaya Restaurant vegetarisch speisen. Die neue Bohème gleich in vielen Aspekten den Eliten der 20er Jahre. Schön und gut.
Die Kehrseite der Medaille (Avers – Revers) waren die großen Wohnungsbaugesellschaften der 10er und 20er Jahre, beispielsweise in Berlin, die für wachsenden und erschwinglichen Wohnraum sorgten. Die großen Firmen der Epoche haben bei den neuen Siedlungen kräftig mitgeholfen. Es gab Zeiten, da haben Arbeitervereine und Gewerkschaften gemeinsam in die Hände gespuckt und sich staatlich unterstützt, preiswerten Wohnraum selbst geschaffen. Eine Gefahr von Korruption besteht, kann aber kontrolliert werden.
Die Herausforderung durch die hohe Inflation steht im Untertitel des Zeitungsartikels der Berliner Zeitung: „Die sinkende Reallohnentwicklung“ führt zu zusätzlichen Ängsten und realer Bedrohung für die vielen Geringverdiener, Arbeitslosen und Integrationsbedürftigen. Das braucht rasche Antworten, nicht nur von den Parteien, die „sozial“ in ihrem parteipolitischen Namen führen. Obwohl, schnell geht im Bauwesen selten etwas. Großspurige Ankündigungen werden nur selten eingehalten, besonders bei Wohnungsbauprojekten. Das Recht auf Wohnen bleibt ein Beispiel für die Notwendigkeit und für die Herausforderungen einer sozialen Marktwirtschaft. 
Photovoltaik
Eigentlich ist die Photovoltaik eine alte Technologie. Seit 1954 werden Solarzellen, damals noch mit geringerer Effizienz und teuer, produziert und benutzt. Da hat sich viel verändert und nicht zuletzt durch die sogenannten Balkonkraftwerke sind Solarzellen zu einer weltweit beliebten, rentablen Alternative geworden. Dächer eignen sich wegen ihrer Schräge und oft der Ausrichtung bestens zum Aufstellen von Solarzellen. Renovationen und Neubauten sollten diese Art der Energieerzeugung unbedingt in Betracht ziehen.
Wegen Olympia 2024 in Paris wird dort gerade viel städtische Infrastruktur erneuert. Der “Gare de L’Est” wird beispielsweise von Frankfurt aus mit TGV und ICE angefahren. Da kommen viele Geschäftsreisende und Touristen aus Europa und der ganzen Welt an. Ein Blick auf die Dächer des “Gare de L’Est” von dem Fußweg zum Gare du Nord zeigt viel verpasste Investitionen. Ein Meer von Dächern liegt brach, bestens geeignet zur Installation von Photovoltaik. Das könnte eine Menge an Energie vor Ort produzieren, die die Züge dann direkt benötigen. Mehr Ökostrom statt Atomstrom kann einfach sein. Es fehlt nur oft der Wille. Nachhaltigkeit und Olympische Spiele ist ein ganz eigenes Thema, nicht nur für Paris 2024. 
Air pollution
Only if we measure air pollution , we shall be able to be sure it is not getting worse or is improving. The European Environment Agency has developed an app that gives us fairly accurate measure of several important indicators of air pollution or air quality as they prefer to name the indicators. With the wild fires in Canada and the repercussions of this in U.S. cities we are certainly aware that air pollution by neighbours is just as important to know as air polllution originating in your own country.
In Europe this matters as well. Therefore the comparative view on air pollution is a necessary precondition to coordinate action within the EU. Specific meteological conditions yield SMOG in winter and too much heat facilitates SMOG in summer. Thousands of people die every year due to effects of air pollution. This is all well-known and documented.
In Science Advances (2023-6-9) new evidence is presented that fine particles (PM 2.5) in air transport influenza H1N1 viruses into the lower respiratory system and even other more distant organs like liver and kidneys. The conclusion is easy: Reduce air pollution much further, this saves lives and lots of costs in the health system as well. Well-being is advanced sometimes by doing less rather than more. Working more in the home office than in the inner city might reduce the peak of an influenza wave. New solutions to old problems are feasible with new technological advances and implementation like fibre-optic cables for fast internet service also in remote areas. Using the “Science Advances” should allow us to rethink our production and consumption model for the improvement of living and working conditions for all. Many extensions of our economic model shall be based on the “beyond growth” logic. We just need to dare to think and implement policies accordingly, rather than to continue to do the same mistakes over and over again. (Image: still building new Autobahn in Berlin 2022 in residential areas). 
Ground Water
The European Environment Agency collects annual data on pesticides in the ground water. The water most of us use in some form or drink. This used to be possible without too much thinking a generation or two ago. We now learn that this might be more and more dangerous, particularly in areas, where less rainfall and prolonged periods of draughts most likely increase concentrations of pesticides even in our tap water. Drinking this, raises more concerns. We know that in big cities and nearby of hospitals water quality is worse due to the concentration of particles from chemicals applied to increase contrasts in medical imaging. Pesticides are mainly used in agriculture, road and rail maintenance, but also households apply them for simplicity.
Snails (escargots) might invade your garden and even your home at times. However, it is just a little bit of exercise to “relocate” them in a decent place other than your home. Prepare a race for several ones and bet on who is going to win, but please refrain from the use of more pesticides. Several species of them are consumed and, depending on your taste, considered a delicious part of a meal (for example in Bourgogne, France). It should be easy to agree to stop the heavy use of pesticides across Europe and beyond. We shall have to protect the salads we grow differently. Human intelligence is able to allow other solutions than just killing as efficiently as possible ,at the same time, endangering our own species. (Comparable data EEA below). 
See Wasser
Der Bericht der europäischen Umweltagentur 2023 beschreibt eine durchschnittlich gute Wasserqualität der Seen in der EU (Link). Die Aufmerksamkeit für das Baden in den Seen und als touristisch wertvolle Naherholungsgebiete haben die Beachtung in den letzten Jahren wieder steigen lassen. Das ging leider oft auf Kosten der zu Wasserstraßen ausgebauten fließenden Gewässern. Dort befanden sich bis vor einigen Jahren noch vielerorts Flussbäder. Das war früher riskant und ist heute eigentlich größtenteils verboten. Wieder etwas, das wir dem Wirtschaftswachstum geopfert haben. Mehr Wirtschaftswachstum erscheint statistisch sinnvoll, mehr Lebensqualität hat das aber nicht immer mitsichgebracht. 
Waldbrände
Waldbrände sind leider jenseits vom Süden Europas auch im Zentrum von Europa ein Bestandteil der täglichen Gefahren geworden. Vor 50 Jahren waren die seltenen heißen Sommer die große Gefahr. Seit einiger Zeit bemerken wir öfter heiße Sommerwochen, die die Wälder austrocknen und leicht entzündlich machen. Jetzt haben wir die noch frühere Sommersaison nicht nur im Süden, sondern auch im mittleren Europa. Neben den Bränden in der Lausitz in Deutschland, kämpfen Feuerwehrleute öfter in den französischen nördlicheren Waldregionen mit Bränden. Eine Nachricht, wie die zum Brand Anfang Juni im „Forêt Fontainebleau“, sollte uns klar machen, da brennt unserer europäisches ökologisches und kulturelles Erbe. Jeder hat die brennende Kathedrale „Notre Dame de Paris“ noch in Erinnerung. Da war Klimawandel nicht die Ursache. Bei den Waldbränden sieht das anders aus. Das Ergebnis ist das gleiche. Die Vernichtung unseres kulturellen Erbes schreitet voran ohne Prävention. Das ist eine zentrale Aufgabe. Nicht erst in der Zukunft. Prävention verlangt Handeln, Planen und Implementieren schon heute. Das ist ein riesiges Qualifizierungsprogramm nötig. Es umfasst die Sensibilisierung für die allgegenwärtigen Gefahren genauso, wie das Schulen allfälliger Einsätze von professionellen und freiwilligen Helfenden. Gefahr erkannt, heißt leider nicht schon Gefahr gebannt. Da gibt es viele Zwischenschritte, die geprobt sein wollen, damit ein effektiver Einsatz gelingen kann. Es bleibt viel zu tun, packen wir’s endlich an. (Artikel in La Marne 7.6.2023 S.6) 
Eyes
So-called deep learning algorithms can assist us in lots of routine tasks. Their applications seem to be spreading more rapidly than we commonly believe. The recent paper published in “Lancet Digit Health 2023; 5: e257–64” shows the relevance for medical screening again. Beyond skin or breast cancer, digital images have for years or decades been subject to studies using deep learning algorithms to early detection of cancer and other diseases. Now Google has published an additional potential application of algorithmic learning that assists in diagnosing blood sugar levels among others. For diabetes scanning photographs of the external eye with professional equipment (Zeiss Cirrus Photo 600) was used in the study, but the outlook hints already at the potential for most recent smartphone cameras to also be able to capture images of even better resolutions.
Just like measuring our weight and muscles as a weekly routine on scales, we shall have a more scientific look at our selfies soon. Spotting early onsets of several diseases will become a normal feature.
Early adopters of the new technology and screening potential of the smartphones might live even longer. Reminders to adopt or keep a healthy life style will be all around us. In some cultures, it is deeply offensive to look straight into the eyes of another person. We always knew that our eyes might tell a lot about us. Beyond mental health, they tell a lot about physical health, too.
Artists have always told us fascinating stories about eyes or how and what they see with their eyes. Scientists confirm that there is a lot of information in the eyes. (Image extract from MAD Paris, Picasso, Schiaparelli). 
Black White
Working at the Bibliothèque nationale de France (BnF.fr), just like visiting, allows you to benefit from the many temporary exhibitions based primarily on their own collections and donations to the BnF. For those who like “dessins, estampes, photographies”, there is a small exhibition as of June 2023 which features on these three techniques in the work of a single artist Edgar Degas from the impressionist movement. Walking through the exhibition or slowly scrolling the press documentation allows you to follow the artistic life course of Edgar Degas. He started with the pencil dessin and evolved to the printing of a single or sequences of “estampes” (up to 20) to impress us beyond black and white with multiples of 50 shades of grey. Degas seems like continuously searching for the uniqueness of the moment to present strong emotions or to summarise interpersonal relationships immersed in a specific spatial setting. Having demonstrated the richness of dessins and estampes as artistic, but a bit laborious technique, he devotes his last few years to a more intensive work taking photographs and proceeding to their development or tirage as printed versions. No matter which technique he applies, he has a special artistic view that allows to capture emotions and immortalise them. The painter’s eye, as well as later on in his artistic career the photographer’s eye, keep scrutinising himself in various forms of “auto-portraits”. Beyond youth, the pervasive obsession with selfies nowadays had its artistic precursor Edgar Degas for example. Whereas most photographers would classify a double exposure as a “raté”, Degas experimented with this almost like a cubist, Picasso-like techniques in photography. Actually, the last few images in the exhibition show the artistic reference Picasso made in his work to images, impressions and techniques that inspired him throughout his artistic work. There are amazing links in and across the history of art or arts. (BnF expo Edgar Degas 2023). 
2P2R
2 Pinot 2 Riesling. That could be the long version of 2P2R. However, this far from (politically) correct. The not-joking scientific medical journal “The Lancet” (Vol.401 Nr 10391) has next to the article on “Laughter is the best medicine” coping with trauma, the serious matter of how best to deal with pandemics. Remember 2P2R as the important lesson from the pandemic. Prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery (2P2R) are key. And don’t forget about primary health care or essential (medical and other) workers. This is, in short, the message from Arush Lal and Nina Schwalbe (Paper Link). Lots of social topics involved in this correspondence from the authors. Prevention is a big issue and, as in the health system, fighting continuously for sufficient resources. Prevention is in most cases less costly than curing a disease. Preparedness has direct costs. Masks and ventilators need to be produced, stored and monitored in their functionalities. Response has to be immediate, masks in China a important but do not allow us to respond fast to local emergencies. Recovery can be long and costly as well, just as we learn from Long-COVID patients.
Now we need to define properly what is included in primary health care. Medical doctors, nurses and technicians of hospitals have to reach patients and hospitals in pandemics or need child care, food etc. and, maybe, also laughter to avoid trauma. Remember 2P2R, but best in company with your loved ones, but not on your own. 
Sei ganz ruhig
Sei ganz ruhig. So heißt das kurze Gedicht von Angela Krauß und auch die erste Zeile. Es hat mich seit einiger Zeit schon begleitet.
Gerade der Eintrag zum Himalaya und den Besteigenden des Mount Everest hat mir die Zeilen erneut in Erinnerung gebracht. Für einige wenige besteht das Leben immer noch aus Sensationen. Immer höher, immer weiter, immer schneller. Dabei wissen wir, unser Planet hält das nicht aus.
Unsere Einkaufsmeilen suggerieren uns ein Übermaß an verpassten Gelegenheiten, wenn wir jetzt nicht zugreifen. FOMO (fear of missing out) ist allgegenwärtig und ein viel zu erfolgreiches Marketingkonzept, dem sich kaum eine Person entziehen kann. Die Selbsteinschätzung der Zeit, die uns verbleibt bis zum Tod (perceived time till death) oder unseres spezifischen Sterblichkeitsrisikos bezüglich Vermeidbarkeit oder allgemeinem Risiko, beeinflusst „unbewusst“ unser Verhalten. In Vergangenheit verhaftet sein, ist keine Lösung. Das Leben wird vorwärts gelebt, und rückblickend verstanden.
Bei einem gelegentlichen Rückblick wird vielen bewusst, es hat sich viel angesammelt (nicht nur im Keller). Aber mehr, muss es nicht werden, anders schon, besser vielleicht. Als Hommage an Angela Krauß mal ein 7-Zeiler, beeinflusst von der Konferenz im Europäischen Parlament „Beyond Growth“ im Mai 2023. Ruhig werden und ruhig bleiben, sollten wir beständig versuchen. Klein- statt Großschreibung, flache Hierarchien, Gleichstellung bei Wörtern und Sätzen. Warum noch Satzzeichen? Denk dir deine Welt, wiedewiede wie sie dir gefällt.
bleib ruhig
bleib einfach ruhig
la vie est belle tel quel
hab keine angst was zu verpassen
es bleiben jahre zu verweilen
schau mal umher
da ist viel
Himalaya
In May 2023 we commemorate the 70th anniversary of the first claiming of the Mount Everest in the Himalaya region of Nepal. Since then, the tourism to reach the highest mountain and have your photo taken there, has become a kind of over-tourism. Spectacular memories and images lead to persons taking unprecedented risks for a bit of fame. 30 persons have died on such expeditions. It is a bit more exclusive than running a marathon of 42,125 km, but even there occasional deaths are part of the race.
Nepal needs the foreign currency to build and rebuild the country. After resources have created the wealth of nations, it is tourist attractions that favour accumulation of wealth. Beware of over-exploiting nature in this respect. The consequences and costs are non-negligable. Climate change does not stop in front of tourist attractions. Some routes in mountains are already more dangerous due to melting of what we named wrongly permanently frozen areas (permafrost). Using virtual reality should allow us rapidly to experience the splendour of the highland Himalaya peaks and climbing. In the meantime enjoy some momo (Himalaya dish) rather than making preparations or training for the next top mountain. It is the images of the area that count, not us in front of the mountains or seemingly endless space. Images and photos taken can help us over the urge to visit this spectacular area ourselves. The planet will need us being satisfied this way, just like watching photos or movies rather than demanding to live in a splendid surrounding or building (castle). My home is my castle and my imagination is my travel book. 
Gaslager
Der Gaspreis (TTF in Amsterdam) ist zum Ende Mai 2023 auf ein Tiefstwert von 23,50 € pro Megawattstunde zur Auslieferung einen Monat später gefallen. Der Unterschied zum Höchstpreis von ca 300 € übersteigt die Erwartungen der meisten Kunden. Das sind die Spekulanten und Zwischenhändler. Der Preis für die Endverbraucher bewegt sich weniger. Kartellbehörden in Europa müssen wachsam bleiben damit die Endverbraucher nicht zusätzlich zur Kasse gebeten werden. Gaslager für zivile und militärische Zwecke wurden vom Bund billig vor Jahrzehnten verkauft (Privatisiert) und sind jetzt wieder zu einer unverzichtbaren Infrastruktur geworden. Der Kapitalismus fällt immer wieder in seine eigenen Fallen durch exzessive Volatilität. Öffentliche Infrastruktur braucht langen Atem und sollte dazu dienen, die übertriebene Spekulation mit der zeit Grundversorgung der Bevölkerung zu vermeiden. Gaslager, Öllager, Wasserspeicher und Stromspeicher bei zentraler Stromerzeugung gehören dazu. Dezentrale Lösungen verstärken die Resilienz und Souveränität weiter. Europäische Solidarität hilft enorm, diese Herausforderungen zu meistern. Wichtig ist nicht nur der Einkaufpreis, sondern der Preis vor und nach Steuern sowie Unterschiede zwischen Industrie und Haushalten (Beispieldaten OECD 2014 für Jahr 2012, IEA Gas Market Report various years). Die ökologischen Sauereien rund um die Shale-gas Förderung in den USA haben uns wohl geholfen, besser durch die künstliche Verknappung von Gas für Europa durchzukommen durch die Erhöhung der gesamten Fördermenge. Ein weiteres “worst case szenario” zur Bekämpfung von Preisschocks. (Paper Link) 
Birds
The study published in PNAS in May 2023 is demonstrating the loss in bio-diversity with respect to birds over last few decades. Our economic growth has caused considerable costs. Some of these costs we shall never be able to make up again. Species gone for ever, we should care. Measuring the loss is a first step in calculating the negative impact our economic growth models have already caused. Time to stop, repair and reverse as much as we still can. It is not fair to next generations to destroy a large amount of bio-diversity now and leave the exploited planet to “no-future generations”. A good documentation of the losses (radio-france-LINK) allows us to pin down who is most responsible for the losses. Agro-industry with the heavy use of pesticides is well known for the huge negative impact it has on bird populations and us as well. It is not only a European issue, but rather a world-wide issue. However, starting at home is a huge step to practice agriculture differently. Most of this is known for some time. It is the implementation of the necessary policies where powerful lobbying is successful to carry on as usual. Thinking “Beyond growth” delivers many useful perspectives and solutions to these problems. 
Repair 3
Repair is our new mantra. Think of repairing in all domains as of now. Nature is showing us the way how to repair in many ways. Culture is also embracing the shift towards repairing as caring. If we really care about our planet, and there is no planet B, we shall have to repair in many more domains. We are used to repair bicycles, cars, roofs, windows etc. Repairing is never boring. You can improve the performance of a device or building by repairing it, even with relatively small budgets. Isolation of buildings is a good example of investing in upgrades through repairing. Rather than throwing away a functioning heating system repairing it with an energy saving device is enhancing its performance and produces fewer emissions in the short run. Heat pumps are the way forward for new installations. Shifting a sector, heating with gaz, to ensure longer lasting repair and improve options would save a lot of raw materials and CO2 as well. The construction sector has repair work almosts in its DNA, the energy sector will have to make that shift as well. Dare to repair. 
Essais
The essays written by Montaigne in the 16th century have re-established a way of writing on philosophy in short digestable small essays. These short essays became very popular at the time and the new technology of the 16th century invented by Gutenberg, the printing press, facilitated the wider spread of literature. Even Montaigne himself re-wrote on printed versions of his own work. The early adoption of the printing technology helped to spread literature in your own mother tongue rather than only in Greek or Latin for the clergy. Montaigne’s format of rather short notes, without a huge masterplan or encyclopedic approach, took readers along on the journey of scepticism, think on your own. Enabling the reader, how to doubt received wisdom, became an important milestone in the history of ideas and philosophy. Referring back to Seneca for example is also interesting as this Greek philosopher dealt with the topic of wisdom in his later life combining knowledge from different different scientific disciplines. Free independent judgment and the ability to argue and take different perspectives became later known as the foundation of relativism. It is still an important way to enable people to take and defend their own perspectives, just like the critical version of colonialism in the exhibition “Indigo waves“. Lichtenberg’s Aphorisms are another example of the independent mind writing down his ad hoc impressions as pieces of larger picture or puzzle. The literary puzzle needs several attempts to assemble the thoughts. Common to these writers is the freedom of thought and expression, still not a given in many parts of the world today. I would probably imagine the doubt as the origin independent thinking. “I doubt, therefore I am” would do much good not only in totalitarian countries. Rediscovering the usefulness of doubting as foundation to take new perspectives and to find new solutions is worth it. 
Design Start-up
Es war wieder Designmesse. Klein, aber fein, in Berlin in den KantGaragen. Die Location weckt schon Hoffnung auf Experimentelles, Garagenhaftes, Handwerkliches. Das bringt Abwechslung in die sonstige, glitzernde Shoppingwelt. Das renovierte und entgiftete Parkhaus erlaubt einen Rundgang über mehrere Etagen, vorbei an Galerien und Ständen von DesignerInnen. Es macht sich eine anregende Brise von erfrischenden Ideen breit. Von Design im Raum mit Leuchten und Möbeln über Design von Mode und Schmuck lässt sich viel Schickes finden. Blickfang, samt Blickfang Akademie haben es geschafft, die Mini-messe in den KantGaragen zu etablieren. Es kann sogar Eintritt verlangt werden. Eine weitere Begleitung der Neuen auf dem Markt wird oft nötig sein, denn selbst gute Innovationen sind meistens keine Selbstläufer. Konkurrenz belebt nicht nur das Geschäft, es bleibt meist auch ein Verdrängungsprozess.
Die großen, vielfach schließenden Kaufhäuser in den Innenstädten spüren besonders die Konkurrenz der individualisierenden DesignerInnen mit ihren einzigartig anmutenden Realisationen. Singuläre Kauferlebnisse auf solchen Messen, in stilvollem Ambiente, selbst in einem alten Parkhaus sind, allem Anschein nach, ein Erfolgsrezept. Start-up statt Close-down schafft viele erfüllende Arbeitsplätze. Gute Arbeit wird nicht aussterben, sondern durchstarten. 
Put People First
Put people first is a natural claim of human beings. We tend to abstract from the fact that we implicitly rely on a sufficient biodiversity for our survival. Therefore, the natural claim to put people first has many preconditions itself and severe implications. The most obvious implication is related to our world of production and consumption. We need to build an economy that serves its people rather than one that uses up human resources and discards people to an inferior rank of importance. Externalising health and safety at work to save money in the process of production will only cost society much more later on. This needs to be part of the balance sheet of companies not only “national accounts” or relegated to some health statistics hardly known to the public.
Put people first in consumption, has come to our attention recently. With energy prices rising due to Russia’s war on Ukraine territory we have learned that energy prices may be grossly distorted. Firms’ versus consumers’ energy consumption became a thorny issue. Even legislation, like in Germany, that put people’s energy consumption before companies’ consumption of energy became subject for debate.
Same issue with artificial intelligence. Let’s put people first here as well. Discriminating use of language or biased conclusions due to wrong data input to train AI is not acceptable as excuse. AI may serve humans in their work or leisure, improve production lines through error detection or early onset of disease, but it cannot replace the human verification of a just or otherwise justified human intervention. Humans are not perfect, never will be either. This is a tough rule to teach the algorithms that guide AI. Put people first has a strong interpersonal or solidarity element enshrined in it. This is what matters, now, in the medium term as well as the long run. 
Beyond growth
We have reached the bio-physical limits to economic growth much earlier than most people and experts expected. The “Beyond growth conference” at the European Parliament 15.-17.5.2023 is quite unanimous in this verdict of collective failure. Some advocate “degrowth” in various forms. Maybe the framing of how to address the vital topic of how to set objectives for a post-growth economy needs an even broader perspective. It is a global issue, but the industrial growth societies around the globe will have to work together to find and implement solutions. The worldwide conference COP-XY are hardly delivering on the issue. At best they satisfy the ego of political leaders to address important issues providing nice images from nice places in the world (Paris agreement) to advance their own political campaigns.
From an economist’s view rather than solving a very complex issue with uncertain outcome, it is more instructive to, for example, start to produce the same economic and social well-being by using much less natural resources above all climate-toxic elements (Carbon-dioxide CO2, Chlorofluorocarbons CFC, or methane). These are simple first steps with a rather immediate effect. After the recent crises we have learned to safe resources (heating) and reduce mobility, just continuing on this trajectory is feasible. Vastly excessive forms of consumption need to be capped through targeted taxes that allow redistribution or investment in reduction of pollution. It isn’t hard to do, or “It’s easy, if you try“, we might sing. 
Macht Raum Gewalt
So heißt der Titel der umfangreichen Ausstellung im Haus der Akademie der Künste, direkt neben dem Brandenburger Tor. Nur 3 Monate bis 16.7.2023 lässt sich durch die Architektur, Planung und Umsetzung zur Zeit des faschistischen Regimes in Deutschland taumeln. Angesichts der monströsen Verbrechen und der unterliegenden ideologischen Doktrin wird die Frage „macht Raum Gewalt?“ auf 2-fache Weise beantwortet. (1) Raum macht Gewalt und (2) Gewalt macht Raum. Das gestalterische Element von Architektur schafft Räume, die individualisieren, personalisieren oder entpersonalisieren können. Die Uniformität im Faschismus kreiert eine visuelle Sprache, die durch ihre Art Räume und Räumlichkeiten zu gestalten gezielt entpersonalisiert. Gewalt- und Machtausübung fällt darin leichter. Räume und Gebäude wurden der Menschlichkeit enthoben, gebaut, den Menschen zu überleben.
So fällt es in entpersonalisierten, bewusst überdimensionierten Raumkonzepten, leichter Gewalt gegen Menschen vorzubereiten und durchzuführen. Die 1. These „Raum macht Gewalt“ lässt sich sozusagen empirisch in der Ausstellung durchwandern. Die 2. These „Gewalt macht Raum“ wird ebenso eindringlich durch die Dokumentation der Zwangsarbeit, Konzentrationslager und massenhaft ausgeübten physischen und psychischen Gewalt durch die herrschenden Faschisten verdeutlicht. Wenn Wörter und Stimmen von Augenzeugen zu fehlen beginnen, werden die Texte, Zeichen, Bilder und Stummfilme zu Dokumenten, wie mit Gewalt Raum gemacht wird. Der expansionistische, imperialistische Drang der Faschisten machte vor keinen Grenzen halt. Juristische Grenzen, menschenrechtliche, moralische oder Landesgrenzen spielten keine Rolle mehr. Rechtsbeugung und Missbrauch war an der Tagesordnung, um Raum, Macht und Gewalt menschenverachtend durchzusetzen.
Die architektonischen Nazi-Hinterlassenschaften, weiterhin sichtbar in Berlin, München und Nürnberg werden nur in den markantesten Bauwerken dokumentiert. Das reicht schon, den historisch bewussten Blick zu schulen. Selbstverständliches Hinnehmen von diesen Anblicken verbietet sich. Das Übertünchen des Adlerkopfes mit weißer Farbe, Symbol für den amerikanischen Adler, sollte in uns die Dankbarkeit für die Befreiung von der Nazi-Diktatur festigen und dazu beitragen, den Tag des Sieges 8.5.1945 der „Alliierten Streitkräfte“ als Tag der Befreiung zu feiern. 
De-risking
Risks are all around us. Risk is the spice of life. True, but this might be an elitist concept of life or business. Survival of the fittest or the best equipped to take risks might be the consequence. After the 3 crises, financial, covid, energy, we have a new impetus to thrive for de-risking. Certainly, concerning our health, we are aware that prevention is key to fight a pandemic. In order to stem an energy crisis, most countries start to rethink their energy mix and achieving more energy autonomy is a major step to shield against risks of delayed delivery or commerce with belligerent states like Russia. De-risking is key in supply chains for industries (automotive production, microprocessors) as well as service providers (cloud services, care givers) just as well. Mariana Mazzucato (UC London) urges us to develop a new narrative to accompany the transformation of our production and service provision models. Mazzucato advocates to learn from lessons from the ground of how to proceed in the best way. Copenhagen is a good starting point to observe how a metropolitan city manages the greening and decarbonisation of a city. It is important to not only target single policies but the coherence of several policies and approaches. In my view de-risking means for Germany and the EU to shield energy systems from foreign, malignant interference. Only local production of energy and nearby consumption of it will ensure the de-risking of energy provision and consumption. Let us start with massive investments in rooftop solar or small wind turbines. Nobody complained about millions of ugly television antenna all around us. Solar cells on balconies contribute to a basic local electricity supply, difficult to target millions of solar cells instead of a single huge and horrifically dangerous nuclear power plant. At the same time ,we reduce dependency on monopoly or oligopoly structures that develop their own agenda (Too big to fail, remember those?). I prefer the reverse statement. Because they are so big, they are doomed to fail and, therefore, fail us sooner or later. The Forum New Economy offered an open and accessible platform for exchange of ideas. That’s a good starting point to address de-risking. Reducing Risk is in the subtitle of Rebecca Henderson’s Chapter 3 on “Reimagining Capitalism” (short Review), but I would like to add the business case for household production of energy for de-risking supply failure and exploitation of consumers through excessive profit margins as a prosumer business case. 
Crises
Crises, yes crises, we have seen a few in recent years. After the first financial crisis, 2009, the COVID-19 crisis and now the energy crisis, , they all have cost us respectively 1.6%, 2.5% and lately a whopping 7.8% of GDP loss according to Tom Krebs (Uni Mannheim and FNE) in his assessment of lessons from these crises. Also Philip Lane (ECB) showed the lower GDP growth rates due to the crises.
We lost out on the wealth of our nations and face mounting difficulties for the distribution of this wealth. As firms cashed in on profit margins lately, workers risk even more to fall behind significantly. At the same time, it is high time to prepare for the next winter season now, to ensure the same risks as the dependency on energy resources from outside Europe, especially Russia, can be maintained. The conference of the Forum New Economy from the 8th of May 2023 discussed several ways forward to learn our lessons from these crises. Strategic independence needs to be properly defined for Europe as a whole, not just in each individual state. Implementation has to be rapid as well. Geopolitical challenges will not wait for us to finish discussions. Germany and minister Robert Habeck has received some acclaim from the economists for a fast and rather successful reaction to safe us from an energy crisis last winter. Massive increases in renewables (+20% solar energy) has helped a lot to ensure sufficent energy supply when France suffered heavy reductions from its nuclear energy power plants. “Let the sun shine … in”, I would sing. However, we have to think even further ahead build our resilience based on improved energy efficiency and may rethink the risks and vulnerabilities of our economic model of production and consumption. Diversifying imports from Russia with imports from other countries and other (green) forms energy is part of the solution. A heavy reliance on China as buyer of our products is good for trade balance, but some sectors (automotive) are nowadays critically dependent on selling in China. Some of our partners are very anxious about this new dependency on Asia for our economic growth model (see figure below from conference). Market based economies suffer more openly from huge economic swings than more secret-based autocratic economies. Our state agencies have to keep that in mind and state intervention seems to become more likely options in future as we have already witnessed in the past crises. We had to rely on running higher state deficits to cover the losses incurred from the crises. The EU, the larger Europe in combination with the transatlantic and pacific alliances has a lot of resources to address these strategic interdependencies. Being prepared, in strategic thinking and potential implementation procedures is a major part of building capacities that ensure resilience and strategic independence. As in a game of chess, you have to think ahead a couple of steps to frighten off some potentially dangerous moves of other players.
In terms of a planetary concern we still have to address the major climate crisis and the last 3 crises have largely contributed to reduce the resources we have available to address climate change. Smart crisis management succeded to ask for emission reductions in return for subsidies from firms and private households. This might be the “best practice examples” worthy to learn from. There are still huge evaluation tasks for analysts of these crises. 